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It's unlikely unless Hawthorn and GWS both lose this weekend, I can't see the eagles winning back to back interstate finals.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
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The squiggle suggests there are only 3 teams in the race. Sydney, GWS and Adelaide. Every other side is "dominated" by one of these. In the last 20 years only once (2008) has a side which was dominated at the end of the H&A won the flag. For West Coast to win they need North to hold GWS well below their predicted score and Richmond to do the same to Sydney without a Hawthorn blowout.
Hawks 2008 were a worthy premier by squiggle standards
Id say squiggle this year reinforces there may be any of six teams capable, if they discover different finals form like those hawks did in 2008
but there havent been many, if any, squiggle years were the top 7 teams have been separated by 1 game and %... so using a majority of seasons where there were clear standouts to draw a hard line under a few teams is probably not perfect.
having said that, i still see certain teams having a better claim than others this year, and that group doesnt include my team at the moment.
still, last night i thought only sydney or adelaide had a chance, and look whats happened.
long story short, fair way to go yet. it only takes 1 bad game...
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MWPP
Flying High
Great point. Might be one of the few years where draws/double-ups/where teams in the top 8 played each other (and when) will actually affect the final result! And yet- I haven't heard much whinging about draws lately (so credit to the bigfooty community as a whole)
I also think you're underrating your own side
Geelong's record against the top 8 is better than any other teams'
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possibly underrating them, and im aware of their record against the top 8 being 'league best'... but the other side of that coin are the performances against carlton, collingwood, st kilda, fremantle, 3 quarters against richmond and the 2nd quarter against brisbane.
it could be a case of conservation, and playing within themselves a bit?
i see geelong as capable of beating anyone, at any time. only problem is, theyre equally capable of losing to anyone, at any time.
I'm not passing judgement on worthiness, I'm just suggesting that the Squiggle has been pretty bloody incredible at predicting who's actually in the hunt vs who's higher on the ladder.
But the whole point of the squiglle is to give the underlying strength of teams regardless of ladder position. For example, have a look at the squiggle after the last H&A round in 2013. It's not that different to the current squiggle. What the Squiggle really tells us is that it's a better predictor than games won or ladder position.
There's a long way to go just in this round and even the sides which are dominant could have changed dramatically by tomorrow night. But Squiggle tells me whoever they are, one of them will win it.
If Adelaide get out of jail via a loss by GWS, Hawthorn or Geelong, would it really mean anything?
We have angered the Squiggle. We were supposed to win comfortably, and instead lost comfortably. We are being duly punished.
Squiggle, we are not worthy to be in the flag zone. But only say the word and we ... still won't be healed.
We have angered the Squiggle. We were supposed to win comfortably, and instead lost comfortably. We are being duly punished.
Squiggle, we are not worthy to be in the flag zone. But only say the word and we ... still won't be healed.
i agree on the whole, and i agree [well, agreed before last night anyway] on sydney and adelaide being a fair way ahead, per flagpole.
my point was that in most years where squiggles 'accuracy in isolating the likely premiers' has been (rightly) lauded, there were often clear standouts. this year, all it would take is one bad game, and there are plenty of good teams to have that bad game against this year.
again, to try put it simply - if every year for the last 20 there had been 7 capable teams bunched at the top, would squiggles accuracy be as good? yes, no, maybe - i dont know!
not criticising, i love what the squiggle is and does! just stating that a lot of people could have picked the '2 or 3 most likely to be premier' a fair way out over quite a few of the last 20 seasons; this year... maybe not so much?
Gydafud
Premium Platinum
Cats really closed up that margin on Sydney today. It'll be interesting to see what happens if they don't hit their projections against the Tigers.
- Nov 12, 2015
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Flagpole barred up over the Cats result.
Sitting just behind swans in third now, started the game about as far away as you can get.
Sitting just behind swans in third now, started the game about as far away as you can get.
- Dec 9, 2011
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Wow squiggle very much like that result didn't it.
Grudge match 2nd qualifying final looking likely, while Sydney derby for 1st qualifying final 
Here2tellyouwhy
SA GREAT
That squiggle movement by West Coast is giving me squiggle movement of my own.
have a weird feeling they might just get there...
they well and truly 'own' the flagpole now.
Final Siren this absolute pasting has made Squiggles go absolutely crazy! They rank Swans 10 points clear of any other team.
cryptor
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Swans flag to lose now. They haven't been in a better squiggle position in the last decade and probably even longer than that.
Buddy's in the best form since he got to Sydney. Their midfield is full of elite level players and their backline is just clicking the way they'd hope.
Buddy's in the best form since he got to Sydney. Their midfield is full of elite level players and their backline is just clicking the way they'd hope.
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- Nov 12, 2015
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Agree.
From a Geelong point of view only way I think we can avoid them (or just be better than then on GF day) to win the flag would be either a shock loss to GWS first up, or the Hawks to take care of em in the prelim.
cryptor
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Sydney won't lose their QF to GWS so if the Hawks face them it will be in the GF.
- Nov 12, 2015
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If north & pies get up, it could be the toasters instead. Cats & Crows grudge match in the first final would be some quality, but I like Cats Hawks more.
Funnier things have happened. With the exception of North think any of the other sides are capable of winning against each other - just depends who is the hungrier and brings their best form on the day. Interesting finals series ahead I think and will be hard for tipsters. Has Geelong beaten Sydney at the SCG this year? Sydney appear to be the best team but any team can have an off day on the wrong day like we did in the GF last year
Richmond had screwed the squiggle
last time Sydney beat Hawks by 30 in a final?
Trick question, there is no last time
last time Sydney beat Hawks by 30 in a final?
Trick question, there is no last time
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