Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[The Gong]

Squiggle is omniscient and should never be questioned. Popping the champagne corks now.

 

[Pessimistic]

Never saw squiggle actually kick a goal.

 

[Cronin]

You spelled Prelim wrong

If they're lucky

 

[Chaisa]

Better offence than 2012, better defence than 2005. Awwww yeah.

 

[Lana]

Final Siren , historically how much does a teams squiggle position tend to move during finals. Especially the premiership winner.

How closely does the squiggle get to predicting each matches score?

 

[Rotayjay]

Final Siren , historically how much does a teams squiggle position tend to move during finals. Especially the premiership winner.

How closely does the squiggle get to predicting each matches score?

Before Final Siren himself chimes in, I would just say that big movements often happen. Try going to maxbarry.com/squiggle, selecting a previous year from the top-right corner and using the back/forward buttons. You'll see that the finalists often move around a lot as they play each other and kick much bigger-than-expected scores, or hold good forward lines to lower-than-expected scores. E.g. in 2011 Geelong's icon moved a lot by kicking such a big score against Collingwood's defence in the grand final.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

I don't even want Hawthorn to make the Grand Final if Sydney is going to be the opponent. Can't let them have the last laugh

 

[Iron]

Final Siren this absolute pasting has made Squiggles go absolutely crazy! They rank Swans 10 points clear of any other team.

Let me guess, the squiggle feels more "right" now?

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

As good as Sydney are this year the Squiggle suggests they would lose to Geelong 2011 and Hawthorn 2015

 

[The Gong]

As good as Sydney are this year the Squiggle suggests they would lose to Geelong 2011 and Hawthorn 2015

Lucky we're playing Geelong 2016 and Hawthorn 2016 who are both obviously inferior.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

As chunkychicken suggested that the squiggle was over rating Adelaide. I think it is truer with Sydney. I think their defence should be about halfway between where they are now and Geelong. Those wet weather games and then fortunate games against truly awful opposition (Port and Richmond)

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Lucky we're playing Geelong 2016 and Hawthorn 2016 who are both obviously inferior.

Just an interesting observation. No need to be snarky Mr Gong

 

[The Gong]

Just an interesting observation. No need to be snarky Mr Gong

Sorry was meant to be banter but came across snarky.

Wouldn't rank this Swans side up with Geelong or Hawthorn at their peak. We haven't won the flag yet. Plenty could and will happen.

 

[The Swans Blog]

As chunkychicken suggested that the squiggle was over rating Adelaide. I think it is truer with Sydney. I think their defence should be about halfway between where they are now and Geelong. Those wet weather games and then fortunate games against truly awful opposition (Port and Richmond)

Conversely our attack rating should be higher having played in Typhoons, Tsunamis and 6 weeks of shocking weather, while teams like Hawthorn, Dogs & North played in mostly perfect conditions.

So **** off.

 

[JohnZ]

Conversely our attack rating should be higher having played in Typhoons, Tsunamis and 6 weeks of shocking weather, while teams like Hawthorn, Dogs & North played in mostly perfect conditions.

So **** off.

Jesus, none of us want hawthorn to win the flag, but no need to stoop to their levels of stupidity

 

[The Gong]

As chunkychicken suggested that the squiggle was over rating Adelaide. I think it is truer with Sydney. I think their defence should be about halfway between where they are now and Geelong. Those wet weather games and then fortunate games against truly awful opposition (Port and Richmond)

What is a "fortunate game"? Do you mean we were fortunate by being so much better than our opposition? Come on. Credit where credit is due.

 

[abe8009]

Hey final siren, similar question to above maybe with the movement of teams in finals but I'm interested in when the predictions and particularly flagpole becomes an accurate predictor of grand finalists?

I understand the predictor throughout the season and allowing for possibility of upsets, obviously this changes here and there depending on actual results. There has also been a lot of movement this weekend (understandably so seeing some huge margins) and through the year as well. At times this year hawks were highest on flagpole as were crows, Eagles and swans.

Is it just that this is an anomaly of a year with so many teams so close on the ladder right up to round 23?

Love the squiggle anyway. Great reading and watching how results impact positions, fans hopes, etc.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren , historically how much does a teams squiggle position tend to move during finals. Especially the premiership winner.

How closely does the squiggle get to predicting each matches score?

Historically, finals are easier to tip. In the 20 years to the end of last year, squiggle goes at 68.7% in H&A matches and 72.4% in finals.

This is because there are fewer upsets, I think, not because the squiggle excels at them. In the regular season, there are probably small fluctuations in how much each team wants or needs to win each match, and this disappears for finals, so favourites win a bit more often.

As such, you can tip effectively in finals just by sticking with all the home teams. That nets you a puny 59.4% in H&A but a mighty 72.9% in finals.

 

[Millky95]

I think it is truer with Sydney.

Yeah we suck we are like Freo last year

 

[jimmy.h]

Historically, finals are easier to tip. In the 20 years to the end of last year, squiggle goes at 68.7% in H&A matches and 72.4% in finals.

This is because there are fewer upsets, I think, not because the squiggle excels at them. In the regular season, there are probably small fluctuations in how much each team wants or needs to win each match, and this disappears for finals, so favourites win a bit more often.

As such, you can tip effectively in finals just by sticking with all the home teams. That nets you a puny 59.4% in H&A but a mighty 72.9% in finals.

Is there a meaningful difference in finals between the results for teams playing at their home ground compared to home teams who are playing at a neutral or away ground?

 

[coerced]

Jesus, none of us want hawthorn to win the flag, but no need to stoop to their levels of stupidity

He doesn't stoop. It's where he's at.

 

[frenchconnection]

Richmond had screwed the squiggle

last time Sydney beat Hawks by 30 in a final?

Trick question, there is no last time

When Sydney won their last GF, who was the other team playing who they beat. (2012 I think).

 

[Final Siren]

Hey final siren, similar question to above maybe with the movement of teams in finals but I'm interested in when the predictions and particularly flagpole becomes an accurate predictor of grand finalists?

I understand the predictor throughout the season and allowing for possibility of upsets, obviously this changes here and there depending on actual results. There has also been a lot of movement this weekend (understandably so seeing some huge margins) and through the year as well. At times this year hawks were highest on flagpole as were crows, Eagles and swans.

Is it just that this is an anomaly of a year with so many teams so close on the ladder right up to round 23?

Love the squiggle anyway. Great reading and watching how results impact positions, fans hopes, etc.

It's unusually close this year! Not historically, but compared to the last 5 or so years, which were dominated by a small number of mega-teams. And often just one mega-team. So it's easy to forget that footy wasn't always about who could make the Granny to play Hawthorn.

Compare the mess that is 2016*:

... to 2015:

Lots of air between #1 and #2, and between #2 and the rest from Round 15 onwards.

Going backwards in time another year, for another round of WHO WANTS TO PLAY HAWTHORN:

So a late charge there from Port to make things interesting, but the eventual Grand Finalists in Hawthorn and Sydney stood out early.

Back another year...

Fremantle did better than Flagpole expected, but again it's easily the Hawks first all year long.

Now in 2012, this is one of the 4 years of the last 20 that Flagpole has missed the premier:

So it was wrong, but it still didn't think it was close.

Now the insanity that was 2011!

Not too hard to pick the eventual Grand Finalists here.

And it keeps going; as you can tell from the starting positions of Geelong and Collingwood, they finished 2010 higher than everyone else, too.

But yeah. 2016 is close.

* 2016 chart doesn't show some games that are in progress as I type.

 

[Final Siren]

Is there a meaningful difference in finals between the results for teams playing at their home ground compared to home teams who are playing at a neutral or away ground?

Without looking up the data, I'd bet that teams playing a nomimal "home" final at a different ground than usual have an excellent record over the last 20 years, mainly because of Geelong winning bucketloads of finals at the 'G.

 

[The Swans Blog]

He doesn't stoop. It's where he's at.

Oh well when flogs bait and troll, expect a reaction