You are far too honest and transparent with your explanations and reasoning.
Surely you have a subjective umpiring coefficient in there somewhere?!
Surely you have a subjective umpiring coefficient in there somewhere?!
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Old_Man_James
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If you draw a line between carlton 2002 and 2005, we had 5 worthy wooden spoon teams this year!
Edit: Oops, GWS 2012 were off the chart. Added them in.
I did say as much in my first post regarding complexity of the model.
I would disagree about subjectivity though because you would simply test a number of different models/parameters against years of data to see which was the best predictor. This is how the current squiggle algorithm was "chosen" (i.e. 9% score for latest game, 12 point home ground advantage, 85 points per game baseline).
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The Eagles have charted in a remarkably tight area all season, in contrast to the popular perception that they've been amazing at home and terrible on the road. They've also been rated well all year, despite being popularly written off until the last couple of weeks.
Compared to last year, things are both better and worse for the Eagles. There's no Hawthorn sitting way out in front of everyone, so that's good. But the Eagles themselves are a little worse positioned, and there are many more teams all around them, who are also credible flag threats. Plus, of course, they finished outside the Top 4, so it's a hard road from here.
The Bulldogs started strongly, but exhibited more and more trouble scoring the longer the season went gone on, and the more that injuries have piled up.
Home teams very often win finals, and the Eagles are better, which should make this a comfortable victory.
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BEaston
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Gonna be very tough...
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The squiggle considers both the Hawks and Cats to be a little flattered by their ladder position, with the Cats benefiting from a reasonably generous fixture (not that they made the most of it), and the Hawks extracting an odds-defying number of wins from close matches.
But both teams are close enough to challenge for the flag, and with top 4 finishes, will get a couple of cracks at it.
The Cats are ahead of the Hawks, but only since last week, when they obliterated Melbourne by 111 while Hawthorn struggled against Collingwood. So these are two very closely rated teams.
Geelong is given home ground advantage here, because they're the nominal home team, and for whatever reason, nominal home teams tend to play better: Geelong has won a lot of big games here, including against MCG tenants. Without that, the tip would be Cats by 8 points. With it:
Flagpole Rank: Geelong 4th, Hawthorn 6th.
- Aug 18, 2009
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PSA: Public Squiggle Announcement
I'm off to the Northern Territory for a couple of weeks this weekend, so we need a Deputy Mr or Ms Squiggle to update this thread!
Main requirement is being able to copy & paste images from the live squiggle. Experience clicking the "1:1" button to square the aspect ratio first is a plus.
Here2tellyouwhy
SA GREAT
The Eagles have charted in a remarkably tight area all season, in contrast to the popular perception that they've been amazing at home and terrible on the road. They've also been rated well all year, despite being popularly written off until the last couple of weeks.
Compared to last year, things are both better and worse for the Eagles. There's no Hawthorn sitting way out in front of everyone, so that's good. But the Eagles themselves are a little worse positioned, and there are many more teams all around them, who are also credible flag threats. Plus, of course, they finished outside the Top 4, so it's a hard road from here.
The Bulldogs started strongly, but exhibited more and more trouble scoring the longer the season went gone on, and the more that injuries have piled up.
Home teams very often win finals, and the Eagles are better, which should make this a comfortable victory.
Flagpole Rank: Eagles 5th, Bulldogs 10thWest Coast 90 - 62 Western Bulldogs
In squiggle we trust
It's the insight we'll miss. If I do it I can think of at least 20 posters off the top of my head that'll claim I'm biased and shoeless.
Brisbane charting into the unknown. Shocking defense throughout the season but werent really as bad as they played. Their best was definitely better than their ladder position would have you believe.
Edit: Oops, GWS 2012 were off the chart. Added them in.
Looking at the flagpole, it's Sydney significantly ahead of Adelaide, who are significantly ahead of GWS. Then there's a cluster of Geelong, West Coast and Hawthorn. In essence, flagpole still really likes us but likes Sydney more.
Eyeballing the squiggles themselves, everyone seems to be milling around the premiership zone rather than thrusting in, like hesitant students hanging around the building waiting for an exam. The ultimate exam of the AFL - finals - is about to begin, and despite Sydney not being in conventional flag territory, they're in good territory. A better attack and better defence than either of their modern era premierships, and their 2014 finals campaign. We know that the Swans like to win flags with stingy defence rather than relentless attack.
Geelong are on the defensive side of the zone, with an attack roughly on par with Adelaide 1997 and Geelong 2005. Their defence is roughly on par with Geelong 2011, but that 2011 side's attack (after the GF) was in a different stratosphere.
The Eagles have a similar attacking ability, but with a less proficient defence. They'll need to squiggle up and/or right during this finals series.
Hawthorn have roughly that same level of attacking ability, but with a defence that's on par with plenty of premiers but not supplemented by a flag-quality attack.
Adelaide have the best attack currently (better than around half the recent pemiers), but they seriously need to squiggle rightwards by bringing their defence up to premiership standard.
The Giants have squiggled very far upwards and rightwards this year, and are in between premiers Adelaide 1997 and Port 2004. Improve their attack a little, and they are in prime territory. But can they match it with their red-and-white cousins?
North and the Bulldogs are far, far adrift of the flag zone. Would take a miracle for either of them to play well enough to squiggle in and win the flag. Sydney's flag to lose.
Eyeballing the squiggles themselves, everyone seems to be milling around the premiership zone rather than thrusting in, like hesitant students hanging around the building waiting for an exam. The ultimate exam of the AFL - finals - is about to begin, and despite Sydney not being in conventional flag territory, they're in good territory. A better attack and better defence than either of their modern era premierships, and their 2014 finals campaign. We know that the Swans like to win flags with stingy defence rather than relentless attack.
Geelong are on the defensive side of the zone, with an attack roughly on par with Adelaide 1997 and Geelong 2005. Their defence is roughly on par with Geelong 2011, but that 2011 side's attack (after the GF) was in a different stratosphere.
The Eagles have a similar attacking ability, but with a less proficient defence. They'll need to squiggle up and/or right during this finals series.
Hawthorn have roughly that same level of attacking ability, but with a defence that's on par with plenty of premiers but not supplemented by a flag-quality attack.
Adelaide have the best attack currently (better than around half the recent pemiers), but they seriously need to squiggle rightwards by bringing their defence up to premiership standard.
The Giants have squiggled very far upwards and rightwards this year, and are in between premiers Adelaide 1997 and Port 2004. Improve their attack a little, and they are in prime territory. But can they match it with their red-and-white cousins?
North and the Bulldogs are far, far adrift of the flag zone. Would take a miracle for either of them to play well enough to squiggle in and win the flag. Sydney's flag to lose.
Have a look over the 2011 squiggle. Geelong only took off in the finals and were sitting around the same area right up until the last round when they absolutely flogged Collingwood. Collingwood of course went nuts on the Squiggle when they did Port Adelaide in by 130 but kept Port to just 20 points. It's one of the biggest Squiggles moves in the last 20 years, if not the biggest (approx 20 points), but it was all down hill for them after that.
After round 16 Collingwood were favourites across the board while Geelong was hovering in the same territory that Hawthorn now occupy. But it was off the back of that tremendous thrashing that ended Neald's career that Geelong flew into flag favouritism. Collingwood were still higher in attack and way higher in defence, but how can you resist the Cats winning by 186 points? Then they backed it up again the following week with a 150 point hiding of Gold Coast while Collingwood did Port in by 138. But finals aren't played in round 20, they're played after round 23 and by then the Cats were already clear favourites.
Collingwood 2011 might go down as one of the best teams to not win a premiership.
Bailey, Neald, just as bad as the other.
Neeld was far worse than a guy who coached a team to a 186 point loss - that's bad
One of Melbourne's greatest crimes - not firing that prick out of a cannon at the sun.
GreyCrow
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Final Siren , firstly enjoy your holiday/work trip.
Looking back over this thread I noticed you predicted Fremantles drop for this year. If you have time now or after you come back , can you give us a Squiggle look at the team to drop , if one has shown up for next year?
Looking back over this thread I noticed you predicted Fremantles drop for this year. If you have time now or after you come back , can you give us a Squiggle look at the team to drop , if one has shown up for next year?
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Based on squiggle position relative to ladder position - Hawthorn or Dogs. But then both Port and Richmond were tipped for top four this year.
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Atleast you are guaranteed to generate some discussion if you got the job
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2005 was a weird year. Spooners had the same offensive score as the premiers
Edit: Oops, GWS 2012 were off the chart. Added them in.
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Look at that frickin' Giants icon. Recall that all their best players are 21 years old. It's going to be a rough few years for the rest of us. We can only hope that this is the year they fall short, becoming bitter and hungry, before dominating the next five years, falling into an arrogance-induced decline, and asking for a priority pick.
Just to add to the unfairness, the Giants finished 3rd yet don't have to travel, a benefit normally reserved for Victorian teams.
So hopefully Sydney's experienced heads come in and steamroll them. THE FUTURE IS YOURS, GIANTS FANS, JUST LET US HAVE ONE THAT ISN'T HAWTHORN FIRST. Sydney spent most of this year in the Ross Lyon quadrant before kicking into gear in Round 19. They're now the top-rated team, both on the regular squiggle and on Flagpole, with a top-2 run at the GF.
Flagpole: Sydney 1st, GWS 3rd
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The Crows have been squiggle darlings this year, being rated high off the back of an excellent close to 2015. It all seemed to be coming together around mid-season, when they began restricting their opponents to low-ish scores as well as kicking bags themselves, shifting themselves towards the best area of the chart.
But there have been a couple of hiccups lately: the loss to Geelong at Kardinia, and the crucial failure against the Eagles at home that cost them a Top 2 spot.
North, too, haven't been at their best lately. But their best was never that great, not even when they were 9-0.
So it would be a shock if Adelaide lost this. North have a great record in finals over the last two years, reaching consecutive prelims from 6th and 8th, but that's a sample of just two years, and the time before that, they lost an Elimination Final by 96 points. Experience may count for more in finals, but if the Kangaroos are to get up, it needs to count for a lot.
Flagpole: Adelaide 2nd, North Melbourne 7th.
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