Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Dogs_r_barking]

I don't get this hate for the Squiggle. Am I missing something?

I don't hate Squiggle, Squiggle has been very useful for my footy tipping this year. But it has some limitations such as injuries and team composition.

 

[Blue1980]

Would love to see an Eagles 06 vs Dogs 16 game. Would be so dominated by mids.

I was thinking that too. Dominant midfields so dominant goals just happen through weight of numbers

 

[Blue1980]

Would love to see an Eagles 06 vs Dogs 16 game. Would be so dominated by mids.

I was thinking that too. Dominant midfields so dominant goals just happen through weight of numbers

 

[Dirty Bird]

Either way it's a fantastic premiership for the Doggies that clearly stands up there with plenty of other past premierships. You don't win 4 straight finals with 2 interstate trips and not be a deserved premier.

Tell that to Geelong fans still bitter over 1997.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

I don't hate Squiggle, Squiggle has been very useful for my footy tipping this year. But it has some limitations such as injuries and team composition.

Would you say that even if injuries and team composition was accounted for, that the squiggle would tip the dogs?

 

[cryptor]

Tell that to Geelong fans still bitter over 1997.

I'm intimately familiar with how poorly Geelong fans take a loss of a premiership they believe should have been theirs.

 

[Final Siren]

Congratulations 2016 Premiers: Western Bulldogs!​

Well hooooooooly shit.

So just to recap, the Bulldogs finished 7th, then travelled to Perth to thump last year's runner-up, beat the reigning premier in Melbourne, went up to Sydney to edge out the team that's going to win the next eight flags, then convincingly beat the minor premier in the Grand Final.

They couldn't afford to drop a single game, and didn't.

They are the first team to win the flag from lower than 5th. They're the first to win it from outside the Top 4 since the advent of the modern Final Eight.

And take a look at this:

That's a team going from genuinely terrible to premier in two years.

This is what I'll henceforth be referring to as a "Bulldogs 2016"-level event. You know that from now on everyone will justify the likelihood of impossible events by saying, "Just look at the Bulldogs." Get used to hearing that, if you support a struggling club: "It can turn around quickly; just look at the Bulldogs." But this isn't something that has happened to anyone else. It's a Bulldogs 2016-level event.

And, you know, thank **** for that. Because as fun as it is to be able to predict football, it's a sterile and soulless game if football is predictable. We don't want to feel like the premiership is decided five games into a year. We want to feel like Bulldogs 2016-level events are possible. Which they are. As unlikely as they are, they are possible.

So that's what we got this year: a fairy tale, to remind us those can still happen.

The position of the Bulldogs 2016 premiership cup reflects that they weren't a dominant team, relative to other premiers, even after four remarkable finals. Which is what you'd normally expect from a team that went 15-7 with a percentage of 115%. But no doubt they earned it when it counted, with only one of their four finals wins close. That means there wasn't a whole lot of good luck involved, except of the self-made kind.

 

[Senor Ed]

Congratulations 2016 Premiers: Western Bulldogs!​

Well hooooooooly shit.

So just to recap, the Bulldogs finished 7th, then travelled to Perth to thump last year's runner-up, beat the reigning premier in Melbourne, went up to Sydney to edge out the team that's going to win the next eight flags, then convincingly beat the minor premier in the Grand Final.

They couldn't afford to drop a single game, and didn't.

They are the first team to win the flag from lower than 5th. They're the first to win it from outside the Top 4 since the advent of the modern Final Eight.

And take a look at this:

That's a team going from genuinely terrible to premier in two years.

This is what I'll henceforth be referring to as a "Bulldogs 2016"-level event. You know that from now on everyone will justify the likelihood of impossible events by saying, "Just look at the Bulldogs." Get used to hearing that, if you support a struggling club: "It can turn around quickly; just look at the Bulldogs." But this isn't something that has happened to anyone else. It's a Bulldogs 2016-level event.

And, you know, thank **** for that. Because as fun as it is to be able to predict football, it's a sterile and soulless game if football is predictable. We don't want to feel like the premiership is decided five games into a year. We want to feel like Bulldogs 2016-level events are possible. Which they are. As unlikely as they are, they are possible.

So that's what we got this year: a fairy tale, to remind us those can still happen.

The position of the Bulldogs 2016 premiership cup reflects that they weren't a dominant team, relative to other premiers, even after four remarkable finals. Which is what you'd normally expect from a team that went 15-7 with a percentage of 115%. But no doubt they earned it when it counted, with only one of their four finals wins close. That means there wasn't a whole lot of good luck involved, except of the self-made kind.

And this is why I love this ****ing club

 

[MeestaNob]

And this is why I love this ******* club

Not good enough...

...to do anything except win!

 

[GreyCrow]

The position of the Bulldogs 2016 premiership cup reflects that they weren't a dominant team, relative to other premiers, even after four remarkable finals. Which is what you'd normally expect from a team that went 15-7 with a percentage of 115%. But no doubt they earned it when it counted, with only one of their four finals wins close. That means there wasn't a whole lot of good luck involved, except of the self-made kind.

Can Squiggle rate teams based on Finals only? I would suggest the Bulldogs would still be a dominant team based on their wins but it would be nice to see if they are in standard.

 

[Youdy]

I don't get this hate for the Squiggle. Am I missing something?

The average person is stupid and doesn't understand what probability is....

 

[barmy44]

Vector time.

My mapping of vectors running from the runner up to the premier over a few decades. (After the grand final)
View attachment 288618

Suggests that in GWS position, may not fear much from hawthorn geelong or bulldogs---- only hawthorn beating geelong in 2008 is in that sector. But NW or SE aligned wins such as between GWS sydneys and arelaides current location

could you do this again (or link me to it if you already have) for where this year falls?

 

[barmy44]

you arrogant bugger! waving the 'flag of victory' around in this thread back in bloody july... good thing it didn't backfire on you!

 

[Pessimistic]

could you do this again (or link me to it if you already have) for where this year falls?

I'd say it is similar to 2008, just more in the defensive area of the chart. So 2008 is no longer unique

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

you arrogant bugger! waving the 'flag of victory' around in this thread back in bloody july... good thing it didn't backfire on you!

What can I say, I was confident.

 

[SJ]

Can Squiggle rate teams based on Finals only? I would suggest the Bulldogs would still be a dominant team based on their wins but it would be nice to see if they are in standard.

A 'finals only' Squiggle and premiers over time would be interesting.

 

[Hugh_W]

Squiggle is useful but it needs umpire factor in future.

 

[GreyCrow]

Squiggle is useful but it needs umpire factor in future.

Pannell Points or Nicholls Numbers?

 

[Dirty Bird]

​

They are the first team to win the flag from lower than 5th. They're the first to win it from outside the Top 4 since the advent of the modern Final Eight.

I dont like calling you up on something as I love your work.
But I am a perfectionist, so I am sorry.

There was once an even weirder system

Rounds 1-14 - Round robin

Create 2 groups
1, 3, 5, 7
2, 4, 6, 8
who play each other over 3 weeks

Essnendon won their group from 3rd, Melbourne theirs from 6th

Melbourne won that

Fitzroy had the right to challenge being minor premiers

Melbourne won that

So in 1900, Melbourne won it from 6th.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Squiggle is useful but it needs umpire factor in future.

Ok Roby

 

[Final Siren]

Can Squiggle rate teams based on Finals only? I would suggest the Bulldogs would still be a dominant team based on their wins but it would be nice to see if they are in standard.

Here are a few ways of looking at it.

Squiggle movement in the finals series only:

An "explosive squiggle," where all teams begin rated at 50/50 at the start of the finals. So it's chiefly a measure of who won convincingly, and/or away from home.

And this is the movement of every team after each final!

​

Interesting that one of the quadrants is empty: the one where both teams score less than expected (and thus both increase their defensive rating while dropping in attack).

 

[Senor Ed]

Here are a few ways of looking at it.

Squiggle movement in the finals series only:

An "explosive squiggle," where all teams begin rated at 50/50 at the start of the finals. So it's chiefly a measure of who won convincingly, and/or away from home.

And this is the movement of every team after each final!

​

Interesting that one of the quadrants is empty: the one where both teams score less than expected (and thus both increase their defensive rating while dropping in attack).

Can you post a flag pole with only the Dog's flag lit up?

 

[Chaisa]

I remember last year you had a 1000 flags thing with 5% luck. What would this years results indicate?

 

[Bloody]

Here are a few ways of looking at it.

Squiggle movement in the finals series only:

An "explosive squiggle," where all teams begin rated at 50/50 at the start of the finals. So it's chiefly a measure of who won convincingly, and/or away from home.

And this is the movement of every team after each final!

​

Interesting that one of the quadrants is empty: the one where both teams score less than expected (and thus both increase their defensive rating while dropping in attack).

The last squiggle has dogs playing giants twice?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Gydafud]

So.... 2017 projections when? I assume the squiggle will not rate the Dogs based on their relatively "low" finish in 2016 on the Squiggle.