Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[threenewpadlocks]

So.... 2017 projections when? I assume the squiggle will not rate the Dogs based on their relatively "low" finish in 2016 on the Squiggle.

Presumably when the fixture is released.

 

[Gydafud]

Presumably when the fixture is released.

Oh yeah.... That makes sense....

 

[RW]

The position of the Bulldogs 2016 premiership cup reflects that they weren't a dominant team, relative to other premiers, even after four remarkable finals. Which is what you'd normally expect from a team that went 15-7 with a percentage of 115%.

A footnote on this. Sydney in 2005 also finished the H&A season with a 15-7 record and a percentage of 116.39%, albeit finishing the season in 3rd spot. Both teams broke long premiership droughts and both went to Perth in the first week in the finals!

If I am not wrong, prior to 2005 the last team to win the premiership with a low number of wins and a low percentage was North Melbourne in 1975, who finished the H&A season with a 14-8 record and 115.1% - their first VFL flag so they also broke a long drought!

But no doubt they earned it when it counted, with only one of their four finals wins close. That means there wasn't a whole lot of good luck involved, except of the self-made kind.

Erm... I can think of at least one kind of luck they had that wasn't self-made... but that would be off topic, so I won't discuss it here.

Love your work mate as always.

 

[maddog37]

A footnote on this. Sydney in 2005 also finished the H&A season with a 15-7 record and a percentage of 116.39%, albeit finishing the season in 3rd spot. Both teams broke long premiership droughts and both went to Perth in the first week in the finals!

If I am not wrong, prior to 2005 the last team to win the premiership with a low number of wins and a low percentage was North Melbourne in 1975, who finished the H&A season with a 14-8 record and 115.1% - their first VFL flag so they also broke a long drought!



Erm... I can think of at least one kind of luck they had that wasn't self-made... but that would be off topic, so I won't discuss it here.

Love your work mate as always.

Is the non self made luck when the Swans stopped running in the last quarter??

 

[RW]

Is the non self made luck when the Swans stopped running in the last quarter??

I knew my post would get a response, back in my box I go. Back to the squiggle...

 

[The King!]

Is the non self made luck when the Swans stopped running in the last quarter??

If you run around all day and keep getting a rope chucked around you, then eventually you realise you cant win

 

[maddog37]

If you run around all day and keep getting a rope chucked around you, then eventually you realise you cant win

So you are saying you gave up?

 

[The Swans Blog]

Arguing on the internet...

Please. You aren't going to make progress against nitwits without any concept of reasoning.

 

[RW]

Please. You aren't going to make progress against nitwits without any concept of reasoning.

Reported, calling people nitwits

miggs isn't here so thought I'd fill in for him

 

[Doggy]

Is this going to become another grand final umpires bashing thread

 

[RW]

Is this going to become another grand final umpires bashing thread

No.

 

[Whats a Battle]

Is this going to become another grand final umpires bashing thread

Umpires are awesome.

 

[RW]

Umpires are awesome.

I did LOL at the username change

 

[Randomizor]

Well umpired Grand Final this year

 

[Maddog1980]

Maybe squiggle has this already but my thoughts are below...

Squiggle needs to include the injury effect on teams and also look at returning best 22 players.

Ie If 5 best 22 players are out injured and they still win the team gets a multipler and vice versa.

Also when teams have returning best 22 players they get a spike in probability.

This would go a long way to explaining the Bulldogs level event you've referred too.

 

[go you pups]

Tell that to Geelong fans still bitter over 1997.

Surely the Dogs and Saints had a bigger claim than them that year that it should've been theirs.....

Geelong shouldn't have lost to North first week, simples

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Maybe squiggle has this already but my thoughts are below...

Squiggle needs to include the injury effect on teams and also look at returning best 22 players.

Ie If 5 best 22 players are out injured and they still win the team gets a multipler and vice versa.

Also when teams have returning best 22 players they get a spike in probability.

This would go a long way to explaining the Bulldogs level event you've referred too.

The beauty of squiggle is the purity of it's information. If you are looking for that level of analysis maybe check out Roby's thread from the last few years.

Just because you CAN include extra information, doesn't mean you SHOULD.

 

[RW]

The beauty of squiggle is the purity of it's information. If you are looking for that level of analysis maybe check out Roby's thread from the last few years.

Just because you CAN include extra information, doesn't mean you SHOULD.

Yep spot on

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Is this going to become another grand final umpires bashing thread

Give it time. Soon you'll have only beaten "one of the weakest sides ever to make a GF".

 

[Gydafud]

We have a Round 1 fixture. Where is the update squiggle?

 

[GoBlues13]

Well umpired Grand Final this year

That is because Hawthorn wasn't in it!

 

[Big Animal]

Would love to see an Eagles 06 vs Dogs 16 game. Would be so dominated by the Eagles mids.

EFA

 

[Seppo]

Final Siren do you need to do much to update the 2017 season for the squiggle?

This current format is awesome!

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren do you need to do much to update the 2017 season for the squiggle?

This current format is awesome!

No but Chief told me to start a new thread for 2017 because this one is too long. So I should do that.

Maybe squiggle has this already but my thoughts are below...

Squiggle needs to include the injury effect on teams and also look at returning best 22 players.

Ie If 5 best 22 players are out injured and they still win the team gets a multipler and vice versa.

Also when teams have returning best 22 players they get a spike in probability.

This would go a long way to explaining the Bulldogs level event you've referred too.

Yes, in terms of prediction, that would probably help a lot in those rare but significant cases when a team has a lot of good players going in or out all at once. I don't think that happens a lot, but it clearly makes a difference sometimes.

It's a fair step up in terms of complexity, though, since that means tracking 500+ players and which games they've played, and squiggle tips would change once teams were announced. Also while AFL player ratings seem like a good source of data, it only goes back 3 years. I'll see how bored I get in the off-season.

 

[HolyRioli]

No but Chief told me to start a new thread for 2017 because this one is too long. So I should do that.

Rubbish. This is only 70% of the O'Meara thread in the Drafts and Trading board