Racing RACING FUTURES

HeathComeBack

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Thread starter #1
I am surprised there is no racing futures thread here given future markets dont really fit into the monthly thread and its a popular bet form. Maybe it can be stickied and punters can post horses they think are overs in future races. Most of the board have a clue so it might lead to a few decent collects.

I personally am not usually a futures man but i just had a look at a few markets for the spring and saw some odds that are just plain wrong. The Everest has Alizee at $11. its a perfect race for her fresh and I think sye would start much shorter, if i were a slot owner she would be the first i pick.
Cox plate is way more interesting now that Winx is out. Mystic Journey probably too short at $5, Arcacia Queen is $15s.. thats way overs. I thnk the 2 fillies should be top 2 faves in front of the Aussie horses. Dont know who is coming from overseas yet but AQ at 15s is a great bet now.
 

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IKnowtheDog

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#3
UK flat season kicking off soon. Need to find the next team Williams horse to get our hopes up and crush us.

Future prices are woeful and seriously tight. Good luck to anyone who can snare one
 
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#6
Pretty sure AQ’s owners have stated the target is the golden eagle due to the regumate issue.

I do think Alizee can be competitive in an Everest, but I wouldn’t dream of taking $11 now. She doesn’t have a slot, there’s no talk of her targeting the race and it will be $6 the field on the day.
 

Viva la Mattner

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#7
I play around with futures where I have spare $$$ in my account for some speculative bets eg. At present I have “active” in my SB account

Almond Eye - Arc de Triomphe @ 11’s

Zoustyle - Everest @ 100’s

Count Octave - Melbourne Cup @ 126’s

Count Octave - Caulfield Cup @ 61’s

Te Akau Shark - Cox Plate @ 15’s (yes iluvparis this is now poison unders ) ;)

Hardly expect to pull many off put all produce a fairly hefty win if I jag it
 

iluvparis

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#9
I play around with futures where I have spare $$$ in my account for some speculative bets eg. At present I have “active” in my SB account

Almond Eye - Arc de Triomphe @ 11’s

Zoustyle - Everest @ 100’s

Count Octave - Melbourne Cup @ 126’s

Count Octave - Caulfield Cup @ 61’s

Te Akau Shark - Cox Plate @ 15’s (yes iluvparis this is now poison unders ) ;)

Hardly expect to pull many off put all produce a fairly hefty win if I jag it
All of those look poison to me - especially Almond Eye in the Arc - taking a Jap horse at $11 in the Arc this far out is completely laughable
 

iluvparis

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#10
Straight up futures bets are the ultimate way to burn money punting. You only have to see all the Grunt love in the ASM less than a couple of months out to see how quickly it can all go to shit.

Same with last years Everest - Redzel and TA opened joint faves around $4 - quinelled the race easily - and SP'd $8 and $10

The only place I'd do it is overseas horses in the Melbourne Cup - and I'd do it on betfair where you could lay off.

I think this thread would be good if people track ALL there antepost bets - it will show you how unprofitable it is. Especially if you are backing multiple horses in a race - you might get one at $30 that starts $8 or something - but once you take into account all the other losing bets on the race you basically have a $3.50 chance.
 

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#11
If you bet in Before Noms rather than All-in markets, the risks are reduced. You do need to be very selective. My method is to lay the stake on Betfair before the race is run to de-risk the bet.

Sometimes you get it wrong and the horse you’ve backed drifts. Then you have a decision whether to ride the bet entirely or cut your losses. That happened on the weekend when I’d backed a number of horses in the Coolmore and most drifted due to the heavy track.

I don’t keep spreadsheets, for the same reason i don’t keep a budget for everyday life. I know that what I do works and so do the corporates because I can no longer get on for a large amount with futures bets.

The Melbourne Cup remains my main target, and especially overseas horses. But there are certainly opportunities in other markets from time to time, especially when trainers announce changes to target races and markets have yet to adjust.
 

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iluvparis

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#12
I don’t keep spreadsheets, for the same reason i don’t keep a budget for everyday life. I know that what I do works
This seems believable

Put it this way - I'll believe it when I see it.

Placing multiple futures bets on a race like the Coolmore (where I assume prices go up less than a month out) seems solidly -EV
 

come on oliver

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#13
Straight up futures bets are the ultimate way to burn money punting. You only have to see all the Grunt love in the ASM less than a couple of months out to see how quickly it can all go to shit.

Same with last years Everest - Redzel and TA opened joint faves around $4 - quinelled the race easily - and SP'd $8 and $10

The only place I'd do it is overseas horses in the Melbourne Cup - and I'd do it on betfair where you could lay off.

I think this thread would be good if people track ALL there antepost bets - it will show you how unprofitable it is. Especially if you are backing multiple horses in a race - you might get one at $30 that starts $8 or something - but once you take into account all the other losing bets on the race you basically have a $3.50 chance.
Have definitely lost way more than won. Mate and I backed Vengeur Masque at $9 a week before the Auckland cup. Think it jumped $5 or $5.50.
Night before pisses down to a heavy track. Knew we’d done our money before it jumped.
I’ll still probably tail a few with small bets if people post
 

HeathComeBack

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Thread starter #14
I have done the following as a "fun" multi

Aristia $11 AJC oaks
Alizee $11 Everest
Arcade Queen $15 Cox Plate $5

and Mystic Journey instead of Arcade Queen for $10

I would never ever have a big bet on the futures but to try and win big for a small collect, i dont see any problem with.

I thought the spirit of the thread might be to post some futures best on horses that might be big overs right now. There is always some that are missed in a market.
 

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#15
This seems believable

Put it this way - I'll believe it when I see it.

Placing multiple futures bets on a race like the Coolmore (where I assume prices go up less than a month out) seems solidly -EV
It’s a pity you don’t work as a trader for one of the big corporates. Might be able to get a decent bet on.
 

IKnowtheDog

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#16
Kings Will Dream in the Caulfield Cup was a good one at the ‘early’ price. Could lay-off later in the year on the fair.
 

FallingLiefs

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#17
Straight up futures bets are the ultimate way to burn money punting. You only have to see all the Grunt love in the ASM less than a couple of months out to see how quickly it can all go to shit.

Same with last years Everest - Redzel and TA opened joint faves around $4 - quinelled the race easily - and SP'd $8 and $10

The only place I'd do it is overseas horses in the Melbourne Cup - and I'd do it on betfair where you could lay off.

I think this thread would be good if people track ALL there antepost bets - it will show you how unprofitable it is. Especially if you are backing multiple horses in a race - you might get one at $30 that starts $8 or something - but once you take into account all the other losing bets on the race you basically have a $3.50 chance.
oaks/derbies are great for these thats about where i'd end it.

were the WA markets up i'd have been on a 5 start maiden about 8 weeks ago and think i even mentioned it on here.
 

bigpapagman

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#22
Alizee not running this weekend has really, really, really ****** me now she'll go to the Donny.

Had a really nice little taste on the last day of the Champs in an all up with Frankly Awesome in the Oaks.*






*may or may not have had the same bet with Verry Elleegant because I'm a ******* coward.
 

HeathComeBack

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Verry Ellegant insane odds in the Oaks right now. She should be fave if wet, but she is no where near as good at the dry and also a distance doubt. Still like Arastia but not if it rains.
 

iluvparis

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#24
Verry Ellegant insane odds in the Oaks right now. She should be fave if wet, but she is no where near as good at the dry and also a distance doubt. Still like Arastia but not if it rains.
Don't know why but having nightmares about VE doing a full old school Jimmy Cassidy 'I couldn't hold her' in the oaks where she doesn't settle, races about 5 clear in front down the back and gets mugged right on the line by some 30/1 shot.
 
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