Racing RACING FUTURES

Remove this Banner Ad

Reader mode
HeathComeBack said:
she could race forward if needed. She just didnt need too against crappy opposition
Click to expand...

Could she though? Why wouldn't you then as racing forward is a huge positive for expected win % - just making it harder to look good? #whataslut
 
iluvparis said:
Could she though? Why wouldn't you then as racing forward is a huge positive for expected win % - just making it harder to look good? #whataslut
Click to expand...
you have taken something from Avilicat to Winx for no good reason other than you cant prove your Avilicat argument. Keep posting, i am over it, And please post your Avilicat bets over the autumn in the mile races as is the best in Australia
 
So Kolding has headed back to Sydney with his tail between his legs and no decision as to future race plans. Van Dyke says there is a risk AB doesn't press on pass the Guineas.

This ASM could completely drop away if some of the 3yos could completely bomb in the Guineas
 

Log in to remove this ad.

AvantGardener said:
You realise you posted about a <1L win as a smashing a few days ago?

Are you still trying to hang on to your youth? Haven't heard anyone say fam since 2015
Click to expand...

your just not hanging with the right peeps fam
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

HeathComeBack said:
unbeleivable win given the wind bias :cool:
Click to expand...

Just the 5 of 6 winners so far were leaders. Only leader to not win got rolled by the $1.70 fave regally bred 3yo in last stride.

Don't understand how you can not believe in wind. It's easily found/recorded/monitored, it heavily impacts races and best of all it's predictable.
 
FallingLiefs said:
Just the 5 of 6 winners so far were leaders. Only leader to not win got rolled by the $1.70 fave regally bred 3yo in last stride.

Don't understand how you can not believe in wind. It's easily found/recorded/monitored, it heavily impacts races and best of all it's predictable.
Click to expand...
Shouldnt there be run on bias though? i dont believe the wind makes as much impact as everyone makes out so thats why i watch every race instead of listening to others. So many fake narratives to make excuses for tipsters not tipping winners. MAtt Welsh who i do not rate as a tipster but follow him on twitter keeps tweeting every time there is wind that the front runners dont have any advantage and i watch winner after winner be on pace.
Its been like this forever. Wind does not affect my betting at all and never has and never will. It hits every horse who is uncovered in the straight if there is a headwind. Most racing is in a circle so they only feel the headwind for a short part of the race and those who peel out will feel it too.
 
HeathComeBack said:
Shouldnt there be run on bias though? i
Click to expand...

Racing is inherently leaders bias. So the baseline/average already favours those on speed. tempo, tracks, rails, wind can counteract it to a degree but it’s much easier to increase the advantage noticeably than get it back to neutral let alone favour swoopers. But it does happen. Most of the time we’re playing with fractions of a length but main point is, it is what it is, we can try reduce it by track management but ultimately is unavoidable.
That’s how I see it.

Not sure you can watch those 7 races today and say that track played normally,It was predictable pre-meeting. 7races 5 leaders win, leaders back and $1.70 shot wins. The other two leaders run 2nd and 3rd. It may not affect every track the same or as often but these things are very common across Aus.
 
FallingLiefs said:
Racing is inherently leaders bias. So the baseline/average already favours those on speed. tempo, tracks, rails, wind can counteract it to a degree but it’s much easier to increase the advantage noticeably than get it back to neutral let alone favour swoopers. But it does happen. Most of the time we’re playing with fractions of a length but main point is, it is what it is, we can try reduce it by track management but ultimately is unavoidable.
That’s how I see it.

Not sure you can watch those 7 races today and say that track played normally,It was predictable pre-meeting. 7races 5 leaders win, leaders back and $1.70 shot wins. The other two leaders run 2nd and 3rd. It may not affect every track the same or as often but these things are very common across Aus.
Click to expand...
but most of the placegetters came down the outside and ultimately failed narrowly. I noticed most of the winners were short so expected to win? If there is a run on pattern or a leader pattern i will change my bet accordingly but i dont change it because of the wind.
 
I don't have any stats to back it up but I’ve often thought course configuration had an affect on pace bias. At Sandown there is a long home straight (which you’d think give back markers their chance) but a tight downhill bend leading into it. The result is horses cuddled to the dip and let go- fast closing sectionals in relatively slowly run races. Hard for backmarkers.

I don't punt on the midweeks any more so rarely bet there, but watching racing there over the years to my eye a lot of horses seem to come down the outside and have a lot of yardage to get there but never quite get there. Sha Tin similar configuration, but another track I never punt at. So purely anecdotal- no evidence to back any of this up.

I think my favourite track to punt at is Randwick- actually shorter straight than Rosehill, but a long straight run into it means backmarkers can get going earlier without covering the additional ground they would be if turning all the while. Caulfield too, except for debacles like on the weekend where it was poison wide, except that Randwicks mile start is far better-best isn’t the country.
 
Same with straight racing - our jockeys are so dumb they don't know when to unleash with no bend to guide them so they often crawl through the first part of the race and then have a mad sprint home.
 
iluvparis said:
Godolphin going the classic route with your star stallion prospect and will keep Bivouac to big field sprint handicaps :drunk:

Boss to ride in the Newmarket
Click to expand...
i think he is a better chance in the Newmarket than he was in the Oakleigh plate. Depends on the weight he gets i suppose. 3yos have a good record in the race and i cant see too many great horses in the noms
And loving Gabi fave???? jesus christ.
 
HeathComeBack said:
i think he is a better chance in the Newmarket than he was in the Oakleigh plate. Depends on the weight he gets i suppose. 3yos have a good record in the race and i cant see too many great horses in the noms
And loving Gabi fave???? jesus christ.
Click to expand...

True - against that he just got belted in an Oakleigh plate won by Pippie.
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

HeathySure
  • Sticky
April Punting Thread - Sydney is racing on a good track - April Fools
2 3 4 5
Replies
112
Views
4K
rank and file
rank and file
PowerfulPies2023
AFL FUTURES - Team Total Wins
Replies
12
Views
697
PowerfulPies2023
PowerfulPies2023
Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods
  • Sticky
AFL 2024 AFL Futures
3 4 5 6 7
Replies
170
Views
13K
rank and file
rank and file
A
Futures - cross sport Multi Betting
Replies
3
Views
795
juss
juss
NonPhixion
AFL AFL Futures 2023
13 14 15 16 17
Replies
401
Views
28K
tangolikelama
tangolikelama
P
Harness racing
Replies
14
Views
2K
awfl
awfl
juice t
Racing February Daily Punt: Sorting out the squibs from the cats
10 11 12 13 14
Replies
348
Views
16K
LukeParkerno1
LukeParkerno1

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top