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Aug 4, 2004
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Player plz - he has looked awful.

The only positive is that as you say - two awful horses ran 1-2 in the race last year.
He’s drawn out both starts and gone back. Had little chance from there. I suspect Dunn’s been under strict instructions to not give him a gutbuster.

Closing sectionals in the Lawrence were 34.72 and in the Feehan 35.34. The mounting yard reports have suggested he’s carrying plenty of condition. Improvement to come I suspect.
 

iluvparis

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He’s drawn out both starts and gone back. Had little chance from there. I suspect Dunn’s been under strict instructions to not give him a gutbuster.

Closing sectionals in the Lawrence were 34.72 and in the Feehan 35.34. The mounting yard reports have suggested he’s carrying plenty of condition. Improvement to come I suspect.
Lol that seems the last desperate hopes of an antepost punter - a pure handicapper like Surprise Baby had no problems storming on from the same position on Saturday.

Hasn't shown a zephyr of his European form under Hayes and it is complete guess work to suggest he will turn it around. His two runs to date in Australia have been AWFUL

#noexcuses
 

Joker91

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Lol that seems the last desperate hopes of an antepost punter - a pure handicapper like Surprise Baby had no problems storming on from the same position on Saturday.

Hasn't shown a zephyr of his European form under Hayes and it is complete guess work to suggest he will turn it around. His two runs to date in Australia have been AWFUL

#noexcuses
First run was okay.
Second run was junk.

But had never ran under 1900m before coming here.

Horse gets one more chance with me, next race should be 2000m- no excuses.
 

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Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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Homesman clear favourite for the Cox Plate for mine with the Japanese horse looking the only serious danger. Pretty happy to take both in pre post markets.

Happy to risk Mysic Journey after the weekend, and others in the market around the same line as Homesman are a legit pisstake.
 

iluvparis

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LG should be clear fave and if it gets here in OK form expect it to jump around $4 - backing it antepost at $8 here its hard to see you not being able to lock in a profit come race day if it accepts

Homesman being the clear local pick says it all - agree he looks good overs compared to a whole bunch around him at a similar price
 

TBellicious

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Sep 4, 2013
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Backed Just Thinkin’ midweek when I saw Gai nominated him for the Cup. She’s done this a few years in a row now with her Derby horses and has got a couple in recent times to the race as a favourite. Was happy to see him win on Saturday. Here’s hoping her Derby luck can change!
 

iluvparis

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Backed Just Thinkin’ midweek when I saw Gai nominated him for the Cup. She’s done this a few years in a row now with her Derby horses and has got a couple in recent times to the race as a favourite. Was happy to see him win on Saturday. Here’s hoping her Derby luck can change!
I'd rather back him antepost to get there as fave then to actually win on the day - her Derby horses have gone atrociously bad in recent years
 

pendlebury_10

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Four weeks out from the race and the Caulfield Cup is an absolute lottery - Mr Quickie favourite on Sportsbet at $10 :drunk:

Which horses can we say are definitely going to start?
 

Jugada

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I am accustomed to catching a little bit of the yellow fever this time of year but Mer De Glace looks like the one heading towards the CC for me. In form and on the up. None of the locals do anything for me other than maybe Finche if you classify him as one and nothing coming out of Europe interests me so far
 

iluvparis

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MDG does have a much better recent record than the washed up hacks they have been sending out recently. FINCHE is already too well found for a horse that I thought was pretty plain first up - will get to see it again multiple times before the day anyway and as you say some of the other locals at the top of the market are laughable.
 

Jugada

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$61 about Finche on Sportsbet is good enough for me at this stage. Happy to have an early bet at those odds

0.83U @ 67 boosted
0.17U @ 61
 

FallingLiefs

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Jan 30, 2013
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$61 about Finche on Sportsbet is good enough for me at this stage. Happy to have an early bet at those odds

0.83U @ 67 boosted
0.17U @ 61
I’m confused, did it just crunch in?

Edit never mind CC not MC. $61 not too bad surely not that dour to be $21 in the big one and so long in the CC. Is the concern he goes via metrop??
 

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iluvparis

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I’m confused, did it just crunch in?

Edit never mind CC not MC. $61 not too bad surely not that dour to be $21 in the big one and so long in the CC. Is the concern he goes via metrop??
It's $15 in Metrop market FWIW just behind staying champs such as Girl Tuesday, Scarlet Dream and Supernova (who i legit had to Google)
 

Jugada

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Best I could find around other books was mid 20s for the CC so just wanted to get something on in case they shortened up to be in line with most other places
 

iluvparis

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He would want to be winning readily against that lot on Saturday if he is going to be any threat in the Cups.
 

FallingLiefs

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He would want to be winning readily against that lot on Saturday if he is going to be any threat in the Cups.
as a true mr contrarian, i'd say he'd want to run well without winning. 108 OHR is probably a touch higher than you would want it to be.

JV was slugged 54.5 for that last year.

SWP does suit because he's clearly 2nd best advantaged horse in that race so he shouldn't be penalised too hard for winning but still.
 

iluvparis

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as a true mr contrarian, i'd say he'd want to run well without winning. 108 OHR is probably a touch higher than you would want it to be.

JV was slugged 54.5 for that last year.

SWP does suit because he's clearly 2nd best advantaged horse in that race so he shouldn't be penalised too hard for winning but still.
??? The Cup weights are already out

As stated - if he can't beat this lot you can put a line straight through him for either of the big ones. The handicap won't matter.
 

iluvparis

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Also not getting the penalty is the biggest myth going around when it comes to the cups.

Who was the last horse to lose a big one because they were penalized in the lead up? Those who get the penalty are going well enough to carry the extra weight and those who don't get penalized aren't good enough to win it anyway.
 

Jugada

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Bit the bullet with Homesman before this weekend with 4U @ 14s. Has already come into 9s with a lot of books and the Underwood looks a very winnable race so reckonhe will continue to shorten
 

iluvparis

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Bit the bullet with Homesman before this weekend with 4U @ 14s. Has already come into 9s with a lot of books and the Underwood looks a very winnable race so reckonhe will continue to shorten
Yeah the biggest firmers in most antepost markets at the moment are those that aren't running. LG has pretty much firmed a point each week as the dire extent of the local stock becomes more and more evident.
 

plays tall 1

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Aug 4, 2004
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Aidan O’Brien’s Magic Wand $151/$41 for the Cox Plate with Sportsbet. No guarantee she comes but must be 50/50 as she’s in the latest round of acceptances today and they have to enter quarantine this week I think. Very consistent Group 1 performer. Worth a spec (particularly the place) at that price.
 

TBellicious

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Sep 4, 2013
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I like Microphone for the Coolmore. Top quality 2 year old who loves the straight having his first trial of the new season tomorrow morning. Undoubtedly will be targeting this race on his way to the VRC Sprint maybe?
 

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