Play Nice Random Chat Thread: Episode III

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Groin guru

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 21, 2017
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It still doesn't show the design was questionable. It just suggests it either might be or it might be so obvious that those studies don't actually have a way to question it. IE The way any study into genetics would have to acknowledge DNAs role in transmitting instructions from parent to child. 97% at least and the ones that didn't acknowledge this would be questionable.

If someone else says "your study supports idea X because you say this and this and that is exactly what would support idea X in our opinion" that's a reasonable claim. The first thing i looked at in your post did that. I'm not gonna check the rest. Unless you want to pay me 50 bucks an hour to do it (that's cheap btw).

You're the one who has missed the point.

It doesn't matter what an author of a study thinks of the consensus if their data supports it.

One more thing...

Any survey of climate and earth scientists across the planet will always find well over 80% of those scientists agree that human are a significant driver of global warming.

So you can argue about the 97% all you like but you can't argue with that.

There has never been anything that shows otherwise.

Every time you or someone else brings up the 97% figure and challenges it it seems as if that disproves AGW.

But it doesn't.

It just means there is contention in scientific fields, as there should be for science to work properly.

"The 97% isn't true"

Actually makes it seem reasonable to question the reality of global warming and sounds alot more damning than

"The 97% figure isn't necessarily true, its actually only 82, 84, 88, 90 or possibly 97% depending on what survey you look at."

Which is very different and certainly no reasonable person could use it to throw doubt on the reality of global warming.
The study design is questionable. As a researcher with a PhD and a great understanding of research design I can tell say with complete confidence that doing a literature search and only looking at the abstracts is poor. If it was redone as a systematic review or meta-analysis and registered with PROSPERO then we will have something better to work with.

No. That is false. I have never ever said that. You are just grouping me in with everyone. The reality is it's a complex issue that isn't black and white. It is not you either agree with the 97% of you think climate change is a myth. There is a lot in between that.

You can't seem to grasp that fact in your world of emotionally charged rhetoric. Accuracy is key. If you aren't as accurate as possible and if you add your own bias into the mix is creates an issue (as discussed before - an issue that derails the push forward). Thankfully people do checks and balances and not everyone is willing to believe figures just coz. It's honestly mindboggling that for over a week now you've had to try and paint me as a climate change denier just because I'm not bowing down to kids and inflated stats. Tone down the emotionally charged hysteria and you might be able to process information a little better.
 

ferball

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You can't seem to grasp that fact in your world of emotionally charged rhetoric. Accuracy is key. If you aren't as accurate as possible and if you add your own bias into the mix is creates an issue (as discussed before - an issue that derails the push forward).
You need this tattooed on the inside of your eyelids you bloody idiot.

You are never as accurate as possible.

Not once on any political discussion have you ever been as accurate as possible. Even as accurate as reasonably possible.

Otherwise you'd acknowledge that the figure 97% is bandied about by denial organisations as much or more than anyone else in order to create a framework for the debate where the credibility of all global warming research hinges on whether or not that particular number is true. you half cknowledge this in your posts but then don't take the next obvious step.

Also. I question what you are saying and you say "you're painting me as this" - that is a childish emotional response.

Anyway can you specifically answer me some things...

You said:

The study design is questionable. As a researcher with a PhD and a great understanding of research design I can tell say with complete confidence that doing a literature search and only looking at the abstracts is poor. If it was redone as a systematic review or meta-analysis and registered with PROSPERO then we will have something better to work with.

Why is it a poor study to just use abstracts?

Also. Why is that important or worthy of so much attention and debate when its only one of many similar surveys that, as I mentioned earlier, show that well over 80% (in some cases over 90%,) of people in the field say human activity is a significant factor in the current warming. Why does it matter so much?
 

ferball

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You: WHAT DON'T YOU DARE SAY CLIMATE CHANGE ISN'T REAL. PEOPLE GOT THEIR HOUSES BURNED DOWN GOD DAMMIT. THAT'S PROOF. YOU'RE HEARTLESS

Cliche ferb and failed to miss the point again. Bravo.
Listen I don't think you understand this but those houses last night wouldn't have been lost if climate change ie warming caused by humans wasn't happening right now.

The costs of that incident are the costs of climate change. Both emotionally for the victims and financially for them and the rest of the country.

Don't you dare say climate change isn't real cos we are paying for it right now out of our wallets and have been for decades.

It will only get more expensive.

This is the result of political decisions made since last century.
 

Val Keating

Norm Smith Medallist
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Val Keating as I said last week - using study abstracts to declare consensus is quite limited and also lazy. Seems other have taken issue with the 97% study that NASA refer to:

Just taking that on face value, how much of a percentage do those scientists represent? 3%?

Edit- or are they supposed to be part of the 97%?
 
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Groin guru

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 21, 2017
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Listen I don't think you understand this but those houses last night wouldn't have been lost if climate change ie warming caused by humans wasn't happening right now.

The costs of that incident are the costs of climate change. Both emotionally for the victims and financially for them and the rest of the country.

Don't you dare say climate change isn't real cos we are paying for it right now out of our wallets and have been for decades.

It will only get more expensive.

This is the result of political decisions made since last century.
You don't know if those houses wouldn't have been lost. You have zero proof it was even the reason.

Not sure when and where I ever said it wasn't a real thing...that's right I never said that...oh but you keep saying it..."after enough repetition" :drunk:

 

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Snake_Baker

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Getting enough morons to compulsorily vote for this years holder of the purse strings is a hindrance and not an asset.

The millions in the streets will be motivated by many things, climate change is just one of them.
It's an idealistic, unicornian, western political indulgence that will never happen.
 

Sopwiths North

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Feb 22, 2018
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Thread could use a bit of spirit lift. Love this.



"It's said that this folk song "Belle Mama" originates from the Torres Straight Islands in the South Pacific., and it means "beautiful earth".

From the "Garbage Music Band" in Luxor, Egypt, this track is dedicated to the beautiful earth, and for all those struggling for environmental justice everywhere."
 
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ferball

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You don't know if those houses wouldn't have been lost. You have zero proof it was even the reason.
Are you serious?

Do you have any other explanation for those weather conditions? A plausible one. Anamolies don't count. We've had 3 winters in a row with section 44 fires. That's a local state of emergency declared with ministerial authority. Each one seems worse than the last. The odd mid 30s day isn't unusual around here even in August but 2 days in a row where people I trust have reported 40 deg in places in early October is unheard of. Its never been recorded before.

Neither of those readings happened in urban areas and although the equipment wasn't BOM standard (or might be I dunno) we use it to determine whether or not we will conduct HR burns or even back burning. And we record those temps on official documents. They are accurate enough.

Things like those houses being lost are unprovable but only an idiot ignores them. I'd bet my life those houses were burned directly because of climate change. It was always just a matter of time when we'd reach this point.
 

ferball

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NSW fire getting coverage on the project. Sounds bad.
It was pretty full on. So far no ones been confirmed dead but there are unconfirmed reports of people missing.

Casino Golf Club is accepting donations of non perishable item's if you can get them there.


People will need clothes and possibly other stuff like cutlery, cups, basic living essentials. A few "luxuries' would be nice. Kids toys and old clothes you would otherwise chuck out will make a huge difference.

Its a long way away from Melbourne but someone would probably be organising something like that on facebook. Its happened before. The world is full of people who do that stuff these days.
 

Snake_Baker

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Val Keating

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 27, 2017
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Turn off their diesel generator and they'll be f’ed.
Don’t mind them doing it. Not sure it’s going to make a difference though. They need to figure out how to hurt the companies creating the pollutions hip pocket. Did you watch the show Mr Robot? Something like that.
 

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