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StCicatriz

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plugger66

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Ok so we now have our cases between 30 and 50. Isn’t that the trigger to get out of lockdown. Even the rolling 14 average is under 50 and should drop by a fair bit more as big numbers at the backend come off the 14 days. Even though I’m sort of working now I would feel more comfortable is it was allowed without using crap excuses like I am at the moment especially as I find it impossible to wear a mask. Common dan just do it you silly lanky hunchback.
 

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SaintsSeptember

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Two political parties, one slightly more right wing than the other in the scheme of things, different alliances with outside interests.

Except where the latter is compromising things it comes down to the actual management . IMO Rather than any underlying philosophy its more the general competence of those involved. So i'm really not getting the Liberal vs Labor stoush.
The ones in each State have done what they have done, and we can judge them on that , but we have no means to ever know if their political opponents would have done better or worse.
 

SaintsSeptember

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Ok so we now have our cases between 30 and 50. Isn’t that the trigger to get out of lockdown. Even the rolling 14 average is under 50 and should drop by a fair bit more as big numbers at the backend come off the 14 days. Even though I’m sort of working now I would feel more comfortable is it was allowed without using crap excuses like I am at the moment especially as I find it impossible to wear a mask. Common dan just do it you silly lanky hunchback.
I posted this in another thread.

Here's one example of why simple averages can't be applied to the whole city.
Averages can come down low but still have transmission in some areas that will be enough to re-ignite the whole thing.

Here i've compared a 14 day average of new cases pre LGA , vs a 7 day average. If the 7 day average is significantly lower than the 14th then good progress is being made.
14 vs 7
Wyndham.. 7 vs 6
Brimbank 6 vs 3
Casey 7 vs 7
Melton 4 vs 2.5
Hume 4 vs 3
Mooney Valley 4 vs 2.5
Darebin 1.2 vs 0.5
Moreland 3 vs 1.6
Hobsons Bay 4 vs 4


So the LGA's responsible for 2/5 of the current new cases are not going to be low next week.

Wyndham = Hoppers 3.4 Werribee 3.0 The rest : negligible.
Casey = Clyde 2, Hallam 3.5 , Cranbourne 2, The rest : Negligible.
Hobsons Bay = Altona Nth 3 , Spotswood/Newport 1 . The rest : Negligible.
 

plugger66

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I posted this in another thread.

Here's one example of why simple averages can't be applied to the whole city.
Averages can come down low but still have transmission in some areas that will be enough to re-ignite the whole thing.

Here i've compared a 14 day average of new cases pre LGA , vs a 7 day average. If the 7 day average is significantly lower than the 14th then good progress is being made.
14 vs 7
Wyndham.. 7 vs 6
Brimbank 6 vs 3
Casey 7 vs 7
Melton 4 vs 2.5
Hume 4 vs 3
Mooney Valley 4 vs 2.5
Darebin 1.2 vs 0.5
Moreland 3 vs 1.6
Hobsons Bay 4 vs 4


So the LGA's responsible for 2/5 of the current new cases are not going to be low next week.

Wyndham = Hoppers 3.4 Werribee 3.0 The rest : negligible.
Casey = Clyde 2, Hallam 3.5 , Cranbourne 2, The rest : Negligible.
Hobsons Bay = Altona Nth 3 , Spotswood/Newport 1 . The rest : Negligible.
But it’s a simple rule. It’s between 30 and 50 cases. It isn’t about areas other the Mornington peninsula would be up and running as would glen eira where I live. I’m not really understanding your figures to be honest. I’m probably getting dumber by the day watching tv 10 hours a day.
 

Pakenhamsaint

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I posted this in another thread.

Here's one example of why simple averages can't be applied to the whole city.
Averages can come down low but still have transmission in some areas that will be enough to re-ignite the whole thing.

Here i've compared a 14 day average of new cases pre LGA , vs a 7 day average. If the 7 day average is significantly lower than the 14th then good progress is being made.
14 vs 7
Wyndham.. 7 vs 6
Brimbank 6 vs 3
Casey 7 vs 7
Melton 4 vs 2.5
Hume 4 vs 3
Mooney Valley 4 vs 2.5
Darebin 1.2 vs 0.5
Moreland 3 vs 1.6
Hobsons Bay 4 vs 4


So the LGA's responsible for 2/5 of the current new cases are not going to be low next week.

Wyndham = Hoppers 3.4 Werribee 3.0 The rest : negligible.
Casey = Clyde 2, Hallam 3.5 , Cranbourne 2, The rest : Negligible.
Hobsons Bay = Altona Nth 3 , Spotswood/Newport 1 . The rest : Negligible.
All 3 have one thing in common. They're massive.
 

Joffaboy

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But it’s a simple rule. It’s between 30 and 50 cases. It isn’t about areas other the Mornington peninsula would be up and running as would glen eira where I live. I’m not really understanding your figures to be honest. I’m probably getting dumber by the day watching tv 10 hours a day.
Need to keep it under 50 until Sept 28. Then it gets relaxed to stage 3.

We are getting there, hang in there.
 

plugger66

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Need to keep it under 50 until Sept 28. Then it gets relaxed to stage 3.

We are getting there, hang in there.
But why that magical date. It’s down to that now and so is the rolling average. He has changed magical dates before. I think common sense suggests if we have under 50 for the next few days then people will just give up. You have to give hope. As I keep saying there are more and more people on the road. That to me is covid fatigue. And good luck having people sitting with themselves in grand final night. I can tell you I’m not doing it. And I really don’t care what people think.
 

plugger66

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Thats what the protesters said on the weekend
Completely different. I’m not getting in groups of 100’s and it’s also another 6 weeks away. If I go somewhere it will be outside with maybe 8 or 10 people watching a game of footy and we will not be on top of each other. And protesting isn’t essential. Watching a grand final with mates is for my mental health. By the way I’d go back to work if I was you. I did a lawn today which was allowed because it was dangerous. Normally a 30 minute job. Took just under an hour. And there is still 2 weeks of sun and rain to go. Could be unmowable
 

Mowman

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Completely different. I’m not getting in groups of 100’s and it’s also another 6 weeks away. If I go somewhere it will be outside with maybe 8 or 10 people watching a game of footy and we will not be on top of each other. And protesting isn’t essential. Watching a grand final with mates is for my mental health. By the way I’d go back to work if I was you. I did a lawn today which was allowed because it was dangerous. Normally a 30 minute job. Took just under an hour. And there is still 2 weeks of sun and rain to go. Could be unmowable
[/QUOTE
i see its ok for some rules and laws to broken by some people but not others
Clear as day we are not allowed to work so i wont be working, people wont to work thats fine but i find it funny that they then have go at other people doing the same
 

plugger66

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Good for you mowman. Yep I will have a go at others and yes I will continue to work. And I will be watching the grand final at a friends house. I know if I said it was black you would say white but if you comparing protesters to mowing a lawn on your own well that just proves black is white. You have even said it’s one of the most safest jobs. Don’t you get bored with trying to find new ways to knock me. And haven’t you realised I don’t care what you say. Based on that logic you could never have a go at someone doing 150k in a 80k zone because you did 85k in an 80k zone. There are different rule breakers but of course you haven’t broken one rule in the last 5 months. Haha. Funny how you had a go at me disagreeing with old mate Stewie and then writing lots of love when you agree with any person who disagrees with me. Lots of love.
 

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Mowman

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Good for you mowman. Yep I will have a go at others and yes I will continue to work. And I will be watching the grand final at a friends house. I know if I said it was black you would say white but if you comparing protesters to mowing a lawn on your own well that just proves black is white. Based on that logic you could never have a go at someone doing 150k in a 80k zone because you did 85k in an 80k zone. There are different rule breakers but of course you haven’t broken one rule in the last 5 months. Haha.
No no I haven't
And as i said if people want to work good for them thats fine no problem with that, just find it weird that those people slag other people for breaking the same rules.
Bit like people complaining about the rules the government of the day bring in when you dont vote
 

plugger66

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No no I haven't
And as i said if people want to work good for them thats fine no problem with that, just find it weird that those people slag other people for breaking the same rules.
Bit like people complaining about the rules the government of the day bring in when you dont vote
Good point. That one time I didn’t vote means I don’t vote but you were talking generally of course. If you can’t understand the difference in protesting and trying to earn a living so I don’t ask for job keeper then that’s your fault. And if you can’t see I was giving you a warning about the lawns yet your first reaction was to find fault in my post well that’s on you. Talk about taking a grudge to far.
 

gringo2011

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Two political parties, one slightly more right wing than the other in the scheme of things, different alliances with outside interests.

Except where the latter is compromising things it comes down to the actual management . IMO Rather than any underlying philosophy its more the general competence of those involved. So i'm really not getting the Liberal vs Labor stoush.
The ones in each State have done what they have done, and we can judge them on that , but we have no means to ever know if their political opponents would have done better or worse.

It's a strange environment with the federal govern meant bullying the states to reopen borders in the middle of the pandemic while going against their own health advisors advice. There will be some rifts that might be hard to repair.
 

gringo2011

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But why that magical date. It’s down to that now and so is the rolling average. He has changed magical dates before. I think common sense suggests if we have under 50 for the next few days then people will just give up. You have to give hope. As I keep saying there are more and more people on the road. That to me is covid fatigue. And good luck having people sitting with themselves in grand final night. I can tell you I’m not doing it. And I really don’t care what people think.

Some already are pushing it. Groups are meeting at the racecourse with packs of 8 or so. Some walking together some just let their dogs play and stand around chatting.
 

plugger66

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I tell you what the nice weather and positive news has me in a lot better mood than I have been for a while. Hopefully we get a win on the weekend and the mood stays up for a while.
I dont get how it’s positive. We are months behind other states yet we are supposed to be excited because we now go back to what we did 4 months ago.
 

plugger66

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Because it's like a Saints premiership. If you don't have it you are even more keen to have it.
At least the saints is our own clubs stuff ups This isn’t your fault. It’s not my fault. It’s hardly anyone’s fault but 7 million people are suffering. Many a lot worse off they I will ever be. I feel so sorry for many small business owners. I’m not sure I could get up every morning. I really worry about the mental health of some people. They may never recover.
 

Cooksen

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It's a strange environment with the federal govern meant bullying the states to reopen borders in the middle of the pandemic while going against their own health advisors advice. There will be some rifts that might be hard to repair.
Federal libs are sh*t scared because they have zero idea on how to fix the economy after this.

Our debt has increased quite a lot since when they were carrying on about Rudd's stimulus during the GFC which worked, The voters are getting younger, they have 2 more bushfire seasons to deal with, China owns most of africa and does not need our mines anymore, Tax cuts to the rich wont work. WA is pissed off at the libs, Queensland hats the federal libs. Scotty will soon need to lead and that is something he has been very adverse to so far.
 

Joffaboy

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Only 28 cases. We will partially open on 28th of this month if this keeps up and no reason it shouldn't.

As P66 said there is a bit of lockdown fatigue, which is totally understandable, everyone is sick to death of it, but we just have to suck it up.

If we get to 26th Oct and open up, we can be confident we don't need to go through this again, not just for us lockdown but the economy. It is so shaky and buggered now, imagine another lockdown because the cases go through the roof.

This is why we have to stay the course. Easy for me, I am getting paid, having it easy working from home etc. I am aware there are many not working and worrying about finances etc, eating into savings, but if we don't do the right thing this virus will spread.

Outside doesn't matter, one person infected 39 people at an outside wedding in Qld. People should not be so arrogant that they know better than the medical experts.

Just a couple more weeks and we are in the same position as the rest of the country.
 

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