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plugger66 said:
Don’t care about right or left wing media. I’m talking that they were going to stop lockdown When it was a 14 day average of between 30 and 50. They expected it to 64 at this stage so the date made sense. It’s 44 so the date unless something changes makes no sense. I’m not sure how can argue otherwise. Bringing in right wing media isn’t really discussing the facts. And thanks for you advise about dealing with it. I am by complaining how stupid it is that we are waiting for no apparent reason and I’m also not saying let’s stop lockdown tomorrow but if there are another 4 or 5 days around this number it’s illogical to wait.
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"I am by complaining how stupid it is that we are waiting for no apparent reason and I’m also not saying let’s stop lockdown tomorrow but if there are another 4 or 5 days around this number it’s illogical to wait."

I think you are looking for reasons to take potshots at Dan otherwise why would you say its stupid to wait and then say wait in the same sentence.

As for the date and the numbers - you should read the roadmap again - the next stage happens in Metro Melbourne on the 28 Sept subject to trigger points and public health advice. That doesn't mean the first day the numbers fall below 50.

The worst thing that can happen for Victoria is to waste all the effort, suffering and inconvenience caused over the last few months by jumping the gun.

Its a bit like a football club busting a gut all season to give themselves a chance to make the finals and then blowing it by picking a half fit player who breaks down in the first qtr leaving them 1 player down against a team that is built around running!!!!
 

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pebblesofsand said:
"I am by complaining how stupid it is that we are waiting for no apparent reason and I’m also not saying let’s stop lockdown tomorrow but if there are another 4 or 5 days around this number it’s illogical to wait."

I think you are looking for reasons to take potshots at Dan otherwise why would you say its stupid to wait and then say wait in the same sentence.

As for the date and the numbers - you should read the roadmap again - the next stage happens in Metro Melbourne on the 28 Sept subject to trigger points and public health advice. That doesn't mean the first day the numbers fall below 50.

The worst thing that can happen for Victoria is to waste all the effort, suffering and inconvenience caused over the last few months by jumping the gun.

Its a bit like a football club busting a gut all season to give themselves a chance to make the finals and then blowing it by picking a half fit player who breaks down in the first qtr leaving them 1 player down against a team that is built around running!!!!
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I’m saying wait because it’s 44 on a 14 day rolling average. But why wait another 9 days. As usual people are making things up you you did then. This is the important part that you are not bothering to read. Their modelling yes them had on 64 at this stage so obviously they couldn’t finish lockdown anywhere near yet but without the figures in front of me logic says their modelling had us around 50 sometime early next week and then they had a safety net and they decided lockdown finishes on the 28th. Now just read this part as well instead of making up emotive words. If we are about a 4 or 5 days ahead of their modelling which common sense again suggests then let’s have that few days safety net and then finish lockdown a few days before the official date. This lanky hatchback keeps telling how good we are going so why not reward us because we are well ahead of the modelling. It’s really not that hard to understand. If their modelling had us on 44 now and they wanted another 9 days like that then I wouldn’t be suggesting it but the modelling didn’t have us anywhere near that. It actually had us on 30% more cases.

and I don’t get this wasting all effort. They have said the lockdown will finish when we still have plenty of cases anyway. They said that. we are in the zone they have been happy to finish lockdown. Only been it for 2 days but we are in it. Let’s have the safety net. Actually if the released the modelling we could see how long they wanted it under 50 before the 28th. Why not have the same length they were happy with and we know that is not 12 days which this will end up being. I’m suggesting it’s probably 6 or 7 days based on 64 yesterday so let’s do a 6 days safety net We are up to day 2 so reward us in another 4 or 5 days. Mightn’t seem much but who cares. It will help some businesses.

as for dates well you can alter them. You did notice the dates for country Victoria were altered and the changes were in the middle of the week. Are you saying stage 3 won’t stop on until the 26th of October whatever happens? How stupid and frustrating would that be if we had no cases for 2 weeks before that. Won’t happen but just an example the dates can be flexible. And I don’t an excuse to have at Dan the silly man but in this case I’m using his figures with common sense thrown.
 
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plugger66 said:
I’m saying wait because it’s 44 on a 14 day rolling average. But why wait another 9 days. As usual people are making things up you you did then. This is the important part that you are not bothering to read. Their modelling yes them had on 64 at this stage so obviously they couldn’t finish lockdown anywhere near yet but without the figures in front of me logic says their modelling had us around 50 sometime early next week and then they had a safety net and they decided lockdown finishes on the 28th. Now just read this part as well instead of making up emotive words. If we are about a 4 or 5 days ahead of their modelling which common sense again suggests then let’s have that few days safety net and then finish lockdown a few days before the official date. This lanky hatchback keeps telling how good we are going so why not reward us because we are well ahead of the modelling. It’s really not that hard to understand. If their modelling had us on 44 now and they wanted another 9 days like that then I wouldn’t be suggesting it but the modelling didn’t have us anywhere near that. It actually had us on 30% more cases.

and I don’t get this wasting all effort. They have said the lockdown will finish when we still have plenty of cases anyway. They said that. we are in the zone they have been happy to finish lockdown. Only been it for 2 days but we are in it. Let’s have the safety net. Actually if the released the modelling we could see how long they wanted it under 50 before the 28th. Why not have the same length they were happy with and we know that is not 12 days which this will end up being. I’m suggesting it’s probably 6 or 7 days based on 64 yesterday so let’s do a 6 days safety net We are up to day 2 so reward us in another 4 or 5 days. Mightn’t seem much but who cares. It will help some businesses.

as for dates well you can alter them. You did notice the dates for country Victoria were altered and the changes were in the middle of the week. Are you saying stage 3 won’t stop on until the 26th of October whatever happens? How stupid and frustrating would that be if we had no cases for 2 weeks before that. Won’t happen but just an example the dates can be flexible. And I don’t an excuse to have at Dan the silly man but in this case I’m using his figures with common sense thrown.
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The point is that you are taking potshots at Dan for not changing things NOW when even you yourself acknowledge its probably best to wait a few more days just to be certain that the numbers have definitely safely within the 30 to 50 range.

I'm betting that if Dan said today that the restrictions are to be loosened next Wednesday and then changed it again because the numbers shot up over the weekend that you'd then have crack at Andrews.

The dates have always been provisional and dependent upon numbers - it was changed for Regional Victoria when they were absolutely certain they were below the projections.

You keep quoting the number from the University of Melbourne modelling but you forget to mention (or aren't aware of) the other parts of that modelling that show if restrictions are eased to early there is a 64 per cent chance of case numbers increasing to the point that restrictions would have to be re-imposed before Christmas. Not sure anyone wants that as an outcome.

And the same modelling showed that if the number is less than 5, that chance decreases to 3%.

EDIT - Article on the modelling from the ABC.

www.abc.net.au

Victoria's coronavirus numbers are better than the modelling predicted

Victoria's 14-day COVID-19 case average is down to 42.7, much better than what was predicted in modelling released earlier this month to support the Government's roadmap to re-opening.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au


"Professor Blakely agreed the triggers should be altered if the evidence supported it. But even though Melbourne's 14-day case average is already within the target range of between 30 and 50, he cautioned against rushing into next step, currently scheduled for September 28.

We have the option of releasing earlier to the next stage but if we release earlier … we may slow that fall and the really big liberty gains that we get are at the next transition in October," he said.

"It may be better to stay where we are until September 28 and then get to the next one faster."
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pebblesofsand said:
The point is that you are taking potshots at Dan for not changing things NOW when even you yourself acknowledge its probably best to wait a few more days just to be certain that the numbers have definitely safely within the 30 to 50 range.

I'm betting that if Dan said today that the restrictions are to be loosened next Wednesday and then changed it again because the numbers shot up over the weekend that you'd then have crack at Andrews.

The dates have always been provisional and dependent upon numbers - it was changed for Regional Victoria when they were absolutely certain they were below the projections.

You keep quoting the number from the University of Melbourne modelling but you forget to mention (or aren't aware of) the other parts of that modelling that show if restrictions are eased to early there is a 64 per cent chance of case numbers increasing to the point that restrictions would have to be re-imposed before Christmas. Not sure anyone wants that as an outcome.

And the same modelling showed that if the number is less than 5, that chance decreases to 3%.
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Not once I’ve said to change things now. You have though. I’m suggesting dan the silly man can say if these numbers keep going and we have the same safety net they built into the modelling then the lockdown should stop as soon as the safety net is met. And you are now making things up just be emotive. What would I have a go at Dan if he changed it to Wednesday. Just emotive made up words because you have nothing else just like you are saying I want it changed now. What I won’t do though is if it is changed is thank Dan the silly man for doing a great job because I clearly think he hasn’t.

and I don’t even get your last paragraph. It makes zero sense. Yep if the restrictions are eased early there is more chance of numbers increasing but that is based on there being 64 cases now not 44. You do realise that don’t you. As I said previously they are obviously building asafety net into the 30 to 50 cases. Most likely that’s around 6 or 7 days. Unless numbers go up again we meet that safety net on Monday or Tuesday. Surely what the lanky hatchback can announce in the next day or two that if we meet the safety net that modelling has built in then lockdown will finish after that. It’s not that hard to understand. And for a man who loves figures you seem short of figures here but are just relying on emotive words I’d rather your old tact.

finally he said well before restrictions were eased in the country that there was a chance they could be. Therehas been no such hope For us city folk yet. A little bit of hope is all I ask.
 
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plugger66 said:
Not once I’ve said to change things now. You have though. I’m suggesting dan the silly man can say if these numbers keep going and we have the same safety net they built into the modelling then the lockdown should stop as soon as the safety net is met. And you are now making things up just be emotive. What would I have a go at Dan if he changed it to Wednesday. Just emotive made up words because you have nothing else just like you are saying I want it changed now. What I won’t do though is if it is changed is thank Dan the silly man for doing a great job because I clearly think he hasn’t.

and I don’t even get your last paragraph. It makes zero sense. Yep if the restrictions are eased early there is more chance of numbers increasing but that is based on there being 64 cases now not 44. You do realise that don’t you. As I said previously they are obviously building asafety net into the 30 to 50 cases. Most likely that’s around 6 or 7 days. Unless numbers go up again we meet that safety net on Monday or Tuesday. Surely what the lanky hatchback can announce in the next day or two that if we meet the safety net that modelling has built in then lockdown will finish after that. It’s not that hard to understand. And for a man who loves figures you seem short of figures here but are just relying on emotive words I’d rather your old tact.
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So you know more about it than a professor of epidemiology? Cherry picking one or stats then calling Dan Andrews stupid and a hunchback just shows all this is, is a vehicle for you to critisise Andrews.

I would tell you to go and read the info that PoS pointed to but you have said in the past you don't read so that is useless.

Just go off your gut instinct, not facts or complex modelling. The President of the US did that, and how did that turn out for them?
 
Joffaboy said:
So you know more about it than a professor of epidemiology? Cherry picking one or stats then calling Dan Andrews stupid and a hunchback just shows all this is, is a vehicle for you to critisise Andrews.

I would tell you to go and read the info that PoS pointed to but you have said in the past you don't read so that is useless.

Just go off your gut instinct, not facts or complex modelling. The President of the US did that, and how did that turn out for them?
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Another with emotive Words. I have used the modelling. All these people who argue won’t use the figures. Just for once use common sense. If you are ahead of targets then why wouldn’t you bring things forward. They did in the country or is that different? Can you tell me why our target can’t be moved forward because we met targets early but the country can. Simple question. Don’t give me Donald trump as a reason or me knowing more than doctors. Just tell me the difference between moving a target for the country compared to the city?

and I don’t need a reason to have a go at Dan. I just look at our state compared to every other state.
 
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Joffaboy said:
What a sad deluded fool and halfwit. Wonder if he lectured Alyssa Horan as she died of a drug overdose on evil?

sh*t kent of a human.
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Back in the day I used to work doing promotional stuff for the company I worked for. They used to get the big footy players of the day in. He was a horrible shitty little man. Rude, aggressive and snaky. Looked like a street junkie and acted like one too.
 

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gringo2011 said:
Back in the day I used to work doing promotional stuff for the company I worked for. They used to get the big footy players of the day in. He was a horrible shitty little man. Rude, aggressive and snaky. Looked like a street junkie and acted like one too.
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I have no problem with religion although I don't follow any faith. I sent my kids to a Catholic school so it would be a bit rich to bag it out. I have been watching some videos on YouTube of Republican Christians who are voting Biden because of they find Trump's values appalling, they also believe in science, and by the sounds of it live their faith.

The ones I can't stand are the idiots like this bloke who takes the gospel literally, basically a fundamentalist and are blinkered to reality and the values that is taught by their religion. The rank hypocrisy of these people is the thing I really can't tolerate. Their venal ignorance is one thing, their hypocrisy is another.
 
plugger66 said:
Another with emotive Words. I have used the modelling. All these people who argue won’t use the figures. Just for once use common sense. If you are ahead of targets then why wouldn’t you bring things forward. They did in the country or is that different? Can you tell me why our target can’t be moved forward because we met targets early but the country can. Simple question. Don’t give me Donald trump as a reason or me knowing more than doctors. Just tell me the difference between moving a target for the country compared to the city?

and I don’t need a reason to have a go at Dan. I just look at our state compared to every other state.
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I wouldn't trust you, you said you don't read. How could you be trusted to interpret complex epidemiological modelling when you don't even read?

I think I will stick with the experts. I don't ask doctors to cut my lawn, I think I wont rely on you for complex medical advice thanks :rolleyes:
 
Joffaboy said:
I wouldn't trust you, you said you don't read. How could you be trusted to interpret complex epidemiological modelling when you don't even read?

I think I will stick with the experts. I don't ask doctors to cut my lawn, I think I wont rely on you for complex medical advice thanks :rolleyes:
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Well that’s completely Irrelevant to what I asked. Thanks for confirming. And when did I ever say I don’t read. Continuing the emotive words without any basis what so ever.
 
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plugger66 said:
Another with emotive Words. I have used the modelling. All these people who argue won’t use the figures. Just for once use common sense. If you are ahead of targets then why wouldn’t you bring things forward. They did in the country or is that different? Can you tell me why our target can’t be moved forward because we met targets early but the country can. Simple question. Don’t give me Donald trump as a reason or me knowing more than doctors. Just tell me the difference between moving a target for the country compared to the city?

and I don’t need a reason to have a go at Dan. I just look at our state compared to every other state.
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Because it is, different that is.

It's OK that you don't get it, I assume all those noxious fumes and bodies in the road havemade you stupider where you don't understand how spread works.
 
StFly said:
Because it is, different that is.

It's OK that you don't get it, I assume all those noxious fumes and bodies in the road havemade you stupider where you don't understand how spread works.
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And you don’t get basic maths and modelling. I won’t guess what’s effected you. What has spread even got to do with what I said? I wasn’t even talking about that but just for your info which you obviously need the state government are happy to stop lockdown with up to 49 cases on a 14 day average. That’s 48 more than you need to spread it but they still thinks it’s ok. I agree with them. If you don’t give them a call. We know 48 could spread it again very quickly but you weigh up the good with the bad and try and live your life as best you can. If it’s dangerous for some well they need to make life decisions.
 
plugger66 said:
And you don’t get basic maths and modelling. I won’t guess what’s effected you. What has spread even got to do with what I said? I wasn’t even talking about that but just for your info which you obviously need the state government are happy to stop lockdown with up to 49 cases on a 14 day average. That’s 48 more than you need to spread it but they still thinks it’s ok. I agree with them. If you don’t give them a call. We know 48 could spread it again very quickly but you weigh up the good with the bad and try and live your life as best you can. If it’s dangerous for some well they need to make life decisions.
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Hilarity. From the man that doesn't know country compared to metro: "no, you".

Do you mow lawns with your teeth? Actually, don't answer that, I'll ask my brick wall.
 
StFly said:
Because it is, different that is.

It's OK that you don't get it, I assume all those noxious fumes and bodies in the road havemade you stupider where you don't understand how spread works.
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No population density of regional and metro Vic are exactly the same and infection rates are linear.

It's all that simple
 
Joffaboy said:
No population density of regional and metro Vic are exactly the same and infection rates are linear.

It's all that simple
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Jb surely you are better than that. Pretty weak points scoring. I’ve never suggested that at all. My point was they changed the dates because of numbers not that we should have the Same restrictions. I’d should expect better but I’m not surprised. Some need wins more importantly than telling others what people actually said. I hope the saints try as hard to win as you did with this post.
 
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