Analysis Random NORTH thoughts not worthy of a thread

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tazaa

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 11, 2007
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I was just mucking around with the ladder predictor and we’re a live chance to finish 15th. Unless there’s priority picks handed out that gives us pick 4 and a chance to snag Ash. Make it happen Rhyce
I’d rather finish 12th.
Hear me out.

The bottom 6 comprises of Melbourne, Carlton, Sydney and Saints currently. Possibly Dogs by seasons end.

Middle 6 is the likes of Hawthorn, Port, Freo, Adelaide and *.

I would rather much have double ups against Hawks, Port, Crows, Freo and * in 2019 considering their lists and where they’re at.

Blues and Saints will have new coaches, Melbourne will be up and about and I doubt Sydney finishes that poorly again also. Dogs also tracking on an upward curve.

We saw this season our double ups against Brisbane and Geelong worked against us and neither finished top 6 last year.
 

Val Keating

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Dec 27, 2017
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I’d rather finish 12th.
Hear me out.

The bottom 6 comprises of Melbourne, Carlton, Sydney and Saints currently. Possibly Dogs by seasons end.

Middle 6 is the likes of Hawthorn, Port, Freo, Adelaide and *.

I would rather much have double ups against Hawks, Port, Crows, Freo and * in 2019 considering their lists and where they’re at.

Blues and Saints will have new coaches, Melbourne will be up and about and I doubt Sydney finishes that poorly again also. Dogs also tracking on an upward curve.

We saw this season our double ups against Brisbane and Geelong worked against us and neither finished top 6 last year.
I’m looking at it from a draft angle. The double ups don’t really concern me, if we’re good enough we should be able to beat anyone
 

Elroo

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Jul 2, 2014
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Random Q : When is the last time Braddles actually left the security of his box to do a spot of one on one instruction from the bench ? I reckon almost every other coach has so far, some regularly.
When he was in Tassie and decided to kick a security guard?
 

Marstermind

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 16, 2004
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If we had won all the games we lost by single figures under Brad, anyone know where we would have finished up and what his record would have been?
Asking for a friend.
Marstermind
I'll check on ladder position later when I have more time, but Brad had 8 wins and 20 losses under a goal. But much to expect to win all 28 of those games but if you flip it to 20 wins and 8 losses, Brad 106-105 W/L record becomes 118-93 at a rather respectable 56%.
 

tazaa

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 11, 2007
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I'll check on ladder position later when I have more time, but Brad had 8 wins and 20 losses under a goal. But much to expect to win all 28 of those games but if you flip it to 20 wins and 8 losses, Brad 106-105 W/L record becomes 118-93 at a rather respectable 56%.
Legend. We’ve all been critical of his 50% winning ratio but if we did indeed reverse his close losses an amended ladder paint him in a greater light.

The gist of this is based on Rhys having a 50% record but if he beats * and Brisbane he’s all of a sudden a master coach at 75%. Wins mean everything.
 

Marstermind

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Legend. We’ve all been critical of his 50% winning ratio but if we did indeed reverse his close losses an amended ladder paint him in a greater light.

The gist of this is based on Rhys having a 50% record but if he beats * and Brisbane he’s all of a sudden a master coach at 75%. Wins mean everything.
OK. If you do a 'flip' of all wins and losses by under a goal under Scott and if all other results for all teams stayed the same This is how the ladder would change.
2010 - 1 win and 1 loss. 9th stays 9th
2011 - 0 wins and 2 losses. 9th becomes 7th (a final vs St.Kilda).
2012 - 1 win and 3 losses. 8th becomes 5th (home final vs Fremantle)
2013 - 0 wins and 5 losses. 10th becomes 6th (home final vs Port Adelaide)
2014 - 0 wins and 1 loss. 6th becomes 5th (a final vs Richmond)
2015 - 0 wins and 0 losses. 8th stays 8th
2016 - 1 win and 0 losses. 8th becomes 9th. (St.Kilda make finals instead)
2017 - 1 win and 5 losses. 15th becomes 12th.
2018 - 3 wins and 0 losses. 9th becomes 13th.
2019* - 0 wins and 1 loss. 14th becomes 12th (Only counting Scott games. Add the Essendon game and we'd be 10th out of the 8 on %)

Of course none of this takes in the confidence from winning close games, or the changed ladder positions changing draft picks. Or the effect these results would have had on the opposition. But imagine home finals against Freo and Port, and the Saints in 2011 and Tigers in 2014 (who were both bumped out of finals easily those years). 5 straight finals series from 2011-15, all potentially with a win! Who'd have stayed on the list? When would have Boomer and others gone? Which FAs could we have lured?

Sorry Denis, you said if your Auntie had what?
 
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tazaa

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 11, 2007
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OK. If you do a 'flip' of all wins and losses by under a goal under Scott and if all other results for all teams stayed the same This is how the ladder would change.
2010 - 1 win and 1 loss. 9th stays 9th
2011 - 0 wins and 2 losses. 9th becomes 7th (a final vs St.Kilda).
2012 - 1 win and 3 losses. 8th becomes 5th (home final vs Fremantle)
2013 - 0 wins and 5 losses. 10th becomes 6th (home final vs Port Adelaide)
2014 - 0 wins and 1 loss. 6th becomes 5th (a final vs Richmond)
2015 - 0 wins and 0 losses. 8th stays 8th
2016 - 1 win and 0 losses. 8th becomes 9th. (St.Kilda make finals instead)
2017 - 1 win and 5 losses. 15th becomes 12th.
2018 - 3 wins and 0 losses. 9th becomes 13th.
2019* - 0 wins and 1 loss. 14th becomes 12th (Only counting Scott games. Add the Essendon game and we'd be 10th out of the 8 on %)

Of course none of this takes in the confidence from winning close games, or the changed ladder positions changing draft picks. Or the effect these results would have had on the opposition. But imagine home finals against Freo and Port, and the Saints in 2011 and Tigers in 2014 (who were both bumped out of finals easily those years). 5 straight finals series from 2011-15, all potentially with a win! Who'd have stayed on the list? When would have Boomer and others gone? Which FAs could we have lured?

Sorry Denis, you said if your Auntie had what?
The MaxBarry squiggle thread has a feature named sliding doors. It uses past results and current form to make its predictions but it also has a ‘luck feature’ which you have illustrated wonderfully.
Thanks mate.

It’s a painful but interesting reading and if Brad indeed had the killer instinct of his brother or Horse with wins at the death - well as you said who knows what may have been.

I think what’s comforting though is that we were never a chance of top 4 based on reversing the close ones as we got belted by some s**t poor sides along the way.
 

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Mordecai

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Apr 8, 2006
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Any good posts/history around regarding the club post 75 77 premierships?

Curious to know how we traveled in the period between 77 and 90 say - what the team was like in that period.
 

Twinkletoes

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Jan 28, 2004
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Interesting watching The Front Bar tonight and learning that Kenny Hunter thought he was destined to play with North after Ronny Joseph had him sign a hand drawn contract on a napkin (as he did back then). Apparently our interest waned after Mark McLure broke his jaw in a state game later that year and the rest is history.
 

King Corey

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Interesting watching The Front Bar tonight and learning that Kenny Hunter thought he was destined to play with North after Ronny Joseph had him sign a hand drawn contract on a napkin (as he did back then). Apparently our interest waned after Mark McLure broke his jaw in a state game later that year and the rest is history.
Dodged a bullet there.

Actually what's the opposite of that expression? That's what I meant.
 

Snake_Baker

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Apr 24, 2013
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I see that another NMFC loaded marketing questionnaire has lobbed in to my email, titled under the misleading premise of being interested in "what I think".

These people don't give two fu**s about what any of us "think", their only concern is how much money they can get out of us with the least amount of actual goods & services in return.
 

tazaa

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 11, 2007
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Addressing the fallout from the weekends loss and the mood of this board - Saturday night was the effective end of our season and has me thinking about the years we’ve just missed finals and the manner in which they occurred. It seems it’s such a dramatic and ‘sky is falling’ moment on each occasion.

2010 - We had a 3 point loss to * late in the season that would have put us in top 8 but nonetheless we missed out on percentage

2011 - We led St Kilda early on in round 21 before Razor Ray let Drew get molested and we got smashed after that

2013 - Where do we begin. We would have played finals coming into round 22 even with the chokes, but Carlton came back from 40 points down in Adelaide and took * place in the finals from 9th

2018 - We lead the dogs by 5 goals at half time and choked with 3 players getting 40 plus disposals for the opposition

2019 - We lead Geelong in the second quarter with all the momentum and Razor Ray misses a free kick to Ziebell gifting Geelong a goal and it ends our year by keeping us to our lowest VFL-AFL score ever

If we can count on the club on one thing, it’s to always find ways to hit new lows.
 
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