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Random Random Thoughts Rebooted

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bedford said:
That's so obvious . They have the Border medal in Melbourne tomorrow night. If it was at the G they would have got over 80,000 with the bushfire match as well.
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Cricket Australia have lost the plot these days with the fixture

agree would be good at the G, but have no issue with the top team hosting, but letting the final become a mini game due to no reserve day is stupid
 

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bedford said:
Should have been at theMCG , not a mickey mouse game of 12 overs on a wet outfield.
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That's the chokers' fault for losing the qualifying final at the MCG.
 
bedford said:
You are getting cheeky in your post mod days , you are probably a Thunder and jumping on the 6's like some that crave GWS rats
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Guilty as charged, you might say I'm enjoying my freedom. Don't support the Thunder though.
 
I like the new index of important threads, thanks Kennedy Parker!
 
RW said:
I like the new index of important threads, thanks Kennedy Parker!
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Ha, probs a bit overdue, the Chieftain's been asking for an updated important links thread for a year
 

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Could Bernie be the next US president?
 

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The King! said:
remember the polls when it was Clinton v trump?
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Yes, I do.

The polls suggested that Clinton had about a 70% chance of winning the election, based on her having a roughly 3-4% lead nationally.

As it was, that overestimated her support slightly. In the end she won the primary vote across the country by 2%, but she lost the election because the electoral college system doesn't count all votes equally and Trump managed to win some key swing states with very close results - he won Michigan (+0.3%), New Hampshire (+0.4%), Wisconsin (+1%), Pennsylvania (1.2%) and Florida (+1.2%) which got him over the line in the Electoral College.

The polls consistently have Sanders at 5% ahead of Trump, if not more, further ahead than Clinton was. Even if you factor in a similar polling error to 2016, he is ahead of Trump.

So... again, I ask you, what makes you not only say that Trump will win (which is of course entirely possible), but that he will win "easily"?
 
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RobbieK said:
Yes, I do.

The polls suggested that Clinton had about a 70% chance of winning the election, based on her having a roughly 3-4% lead nationally.

As it was, that overestimated her support slightly. In the end she won the primary vote across the country by 2%, but she lost the election because the electoral college system doesn't count all votes equally and Trump managed to win some key of swings states on very close results - he won Michigan (+0.3%), New Hampshire (+0.4%), Wisconsin (+1%), Pennsylvania (1.2%) and Florida (+1.2%) which got him over the line in the Electoral College.

The polls consistently have Sanders at 5% ahead of Trump, if not more, further ahead than Clinton was. Even if you factor in a similar polling error to 2016, he is ahead of Trump.

So... again, I ask you, what makes you not only say that Trump will win (which is of course entirely possible), but that he will win "easily"?
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On his gravestone his claim to fame will be that he picked the favourite in a two horse race. Not much to hang your hat on.
 
Trumps approval rating is higher than before as of the weekend I think Colorado New Mexico Nevada and New Hampshire are now at their highest since he took office

Sanders is going to be 80 when he would take office , I know trump is no spring chicken but will sanders live for a full term?

I Am no trump fan, just seems to be the way the world is turning at times, people want the brash man and the democrats are a rabble
 
The King! said:
Trumps approval rating is higher than before as of the weekend I think Colorado New Mexico Nevada and New Hampshire are now at their highest since he took office
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Screenshot from 2020-02-24 14-02-12.png

Been a little uptick in the last month but at this point certainly not enough to get him close to being overall approved. His approval rating has been more or less constantly -10% for his entire presidency. Can you name a president who got re-elected with approval ratings so low? Can you name one who got re-elected easily?

The King! said:
Sanders is going to be 80 when he would take office , I know trump is no spring chicken but will sanders live for a full term?
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I don't know. Would Trump?

The King! said:
I Am no trump fan, just seems to be the way the world is turning at times, people want the brash man and the democrats are a rabble
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The Democrats are no more of a rabble than the Republican party was at this point before Trump's election.

Still not seeing the reason for your confidence in Trump winning the election easily.
 
RobbieK said:
Still not seeing the reason for your confidence in Trump winning the election easily.
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I think the polls have never really told the trump story, I am relying heavily on Moody’s model

trump will probably struggle to win the popular vote, I would agree with that, but I think he had the lowest approval rate of any president to win ever? his movement between best and worst is quite low though. I accept where you are coming from re the past, but I think Trump will go down as the historical outlier.

re the age it is a shame to have two geriatric candidates , but pushing 80 trying to win office seems harder.

will be interesting to see the result, happy to be wrong, but I think he wins quite comfortably based on the economic sentiment of the average joe

Also happy to watch 4 more years of his comedy show go around from a distance
 

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