Rank in order the teams chances of winning the premiership

[PerthBoy86]

Another reason the break is arguably bad is winners of the prelim play only 1 game in basically a 3 week period. I feel this can often go against them, breaking momentum. Probably worse even getting an extra week break. The Dogs in 16 were able to maintain more momentum. Course it's not a rule, but some teams evidently struggle more with byes, e.g. Cats.

 

[Kram]

Another reason the break is arguably bad is winners of the prelim play only 1 game in basically a 3 week period. I feel this can often go against them, breaking momentum. Probably worse even getting an extra week break. The Dogs in 16 were able to maintain more momentum. Course it's not a rule, but some teams evidently struggle more with byes, e.g. Cats.

In the popular final 5 system the top team often only played 1 game in 3 weeks during the finals.

 

[SuperSub17]

It's not quite that simple. There's no doubt finishing top 4 is a big advantage, but the "current system" doesn't go back as far as you're suggesting. The bye before the first week of finals has only been in place a couple of years and potentially changes the system significantly. It's still undetermined what effect it has on the competing teams. The losers of the qualifying finals are really no better off than the winners of the elimination finals in games where there isn't a clear home ground advantage and only time will tell whether or not playing just one game in 4 weeks disadvantages the qualifying final winners come preliminary final day.

That’s fair, of course you can’t boil things down to simple numbers - otherwise everything becomes very predictable. The bye certainly does change things too. I will say this though: we don’t know who the EF winners and the QF losers are yet. Half of the EF teams will be out straight away, so for them to be on level footing with a top 4 team (save for HGA) requires them to win and the top 4 team to lose in week 1 - a combination that right now is unlikely. So until we know what combinations those are, the top 4 remain well ahead on an individual level.

 

[Valleyboy9]

1. Richmond
2. Geelong
3. Melbourne
4. GWS
5. Collingwood
6. Hawthorn
7. West Coast
8. Sydney

Mmmmm. Geelong is playing Melbourne in a “knockout final”.
Yet you have them 2 and 3.
One team won’t be in it after next Friday night.
Very strange.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Mmmmm. Geelong is playing Melbourne in a “knockout final”.
Yet you have them 2 and 3.
One team won’t be in it after next Friday night.
Very strange.

Nah I get it. Whichever team wins out of Melbourne/Geelong will be well placed for a tilt at the flag

 

[Hannabal]

I'm a big fan of percentage as a performance indicator. Port had a very strong percentage in 2014, came 5th and should have beaten Hawthorn in the prelim.

Two teams ranked 5-8 have the second and third best percentages. How often has that happened ?

I think the winner of Melb v Geelong will make the preliminary and presumably play West Coast in Perth.

 

[Benno_900]

Mmmmm. Geelong is playing Melbourne in a “knockout final”.
Yet you have them 2 and 3.
One team won’t be in it after next Friday night.
Very strange.

Only one team wins it.

It is not the order I believe they will finish in.

 

[Wolfgang West]

Anyone who doesn’t have the top 4 in some order from 1-4 doesn’t understand basic mathematics.

66 of 72 top 4 sides under the current system have made the prelim compared to 6 of 72 5-8 sides. For the grand final it’s 35/72 compared to 1/72.

It really is a huge advantage.

You have not taken into account the strength of the competition is rubbish. Started in 2015. Apart from Richmond the rest of the 8 have been up and down like a hookers undies. Going into last week I didn't think on this year's performances neither Hawthorn or Swans were top 4 quality in the mould of what top 4 sides have been in the past. Spot was there for the winner because Melbourne s**t the bed Geelong not good enough and the Giants decimated and compounded by s**t coaching. Colingwood and Eagles have earned their spots through consistency. Injuries and lack of depth in the talent pool in the AFL is hitting home. Richmond are the best side and they should win it. Collingwood because of character could cause the upset.

 

[Wolfgang West]

1. Richmond - Obvious, could slip up but unlikley. Could be stronger next year.
2. West Coast - Nervous without Gaff and big nic but home ground factor should get them to GF
3. Sydney - Underrated, will get stars back
4. Melbourne - Good from, maybe another drought breaker
5. Hawthorn- best coached team, think they've been a bit lucky with a soft mid season draw and a few close ones. could be another 2016 or geelong of 14
6. Collingwood - Only beaten one top 8 team, could pinch one but wont go further then a prelim
7. Gws - All talent no grunt
8. Geelong - Very Lucky gawn missed, and the Dixon review. THree byes wont help either, do play well against richmond though

Who ? Paul Kelly & Tony Lockett ? Mate there ain't no stars to come back. Next Year Mills will be back and he would be handy now as would Nick Smith for reliability in defence. Reid only has to look at a Sherrin and he tears soft tissue so I think you are off the mark.

 

[Northern Summer]

* For some reason, I actually think the flag will come from GWS, Melbourne and Geelong.

This could easily be Geelong instead of Melbourne, or GWS, winning the flag -

Richmond d Hawthorn
Melbourne d Geelong
GWS d Sydney
West Coast d Collingwood

Melbourne d Hawthorn
GWS d Collingwood

GWS d Richmond
Melbourne d West Coast

Melbourne d GWS

 

[CrippasHeavyLoad]

1. Richmond
2. WCE
3. Collingwood
4. Melbourne
5. Sydney
6. Hawks
7. Geelong
8. GWS

Without a doubt, Richmond the team to beat. I think Richmond vs WCE will give the best GF

 

[Wolfgang West]

1. Richmond
2. WCE
3. Collingwood
4. Melbourne
5. Sydney
6. Hawks
7. Geelong
8. GWS

Without a doubt, Richmond the team to beat. I think Richmond vs WCE will give the best GF

Richmond V Collingwood would be the most competitive GF. Eagles ain't beating Richmond in a GF at the MCG.

 

[HTT]

Not including Richmond - I think we are best placed but not sure if we'll be able to flick the switch, can't really make a proper judgement

1) West Coast - MCG - who cares? Flogged Collingwood there not long ago. In a ripping position to get themselves into a GF and from there anything's possible
2) Hawthorn - Clarko is a mastermind and if I'm going to pick a coach that can properly pick apart our game plan it's him. Depends on whether the new guard stand up in finals as Hodge and the like did
3) Collingwood - pretty much level with Hawthorn, been stiffed a bit by the week 1 fixture though, so I put them marginally below the Hawks. Note, however, that no matter how they get there, if Collingwood play in a prelim, it WILL be at the G in front of a heaving crowd.

GAP - there's a reason only one team has made the GF from outside the 4 in the current system

4) Melbourne - in great form going into finals, and Perth doesn't faze them - which is their likely destination if they can get into a prelim. Question mark over whether they can maintain the rage for a whole month though.
5) Geelong - coming in with good form, albeit against poor teams and at KP. Massive question mark for mine over whether they have enough quality players for finals. Seem to rely a bit on the top few.
6) Sydney - always have to beware writing off this mob, but I can't put them clearly above anyone else
7) GWS - I thought they'd be in with a show if they could make top 4, as they've learnt to win ugly this year, but they've tailed off really badly when it was all there for them

Can throw a blanket over 4-7 though, I do understand Sydney knocked off Melbourne not too long ago, and funny things happen in September.

 

[Giant Pete]

Richmond will win this comfortably.

 

[G0ther00s]

1. Richmond (clear best team)
2. West Coast (lack of 2nd contender)
3. Melbourne
4. Geelong (Whoever wins the Melbourne or Geelong game I believe makes the grand final to play Richmond)
_______________________________
5. GWS
6. Collingwood
7. Hawthorn
8. Sydney

Don't rate Sydney's game style, I think Collingwood have copped too many injuries, Hawks to be out in straight sets.

 

[Chaisa]

1. Richmond - clearly the best team, and assuming nothing goes wrong will have all three finals at a venue they haven't lost at since mid-last year. The only trouble is that they're barely gotten out of second gear lately, and who knows how well they recover from that.
2. West Coast - two home finals should be enough to take them to the final, and from there anything could happen.
3. Hawthorn - lots of September experience, made the Top 4, in decent form and have played every game like a final for at least a month. Perhaps lack the quality of some of the other sides but only a fool would write them off.
4. Geelong - similar case to Hawthorn, but didn't finish Top 4 and don't have as good of a coach. I think they're peaking though.
5. GWS - I get a really similar feeling about this mob to the 2016 Bulldogs. If they don't get enough key players back they'll lose Rd 1, but if a few do return it could see them get back to the form they showed a few weeks ago, and that could be enough to win the comp. Should be thanking the bye's lucky stars.
6. Collingwood - do have the advantage of being in the Top 4, but have too many injuries and their Top 8 record is poor. Still if they roll West Coast things get interesting.
7. Sydney - not playing all that great, but do have a strong Top 8 record this year and have been very good away from home. Could surprise many.
8. Melbourne - don't have enough September experience I don't think. Wouldn't be 8th most years, though.

3rd-8th could go in any order on any given day though. And West Coast are only 2nd because of the two home finals thing.

 

[WCE Wizard]

West Coast need to win week 1 or they are screwed I think. No idea if Kennedy will make it on the park for any finals (keeps being 1 more week, though last updated on their site on 21 aug). Plus Darling doubtful.

Then there's their finals record in Melbourne against local teams - think they've beaten a Melbourne based club once or twice on the road since 1994 in a final (Bulldogs or maybe Carlton iirc). To win it they will need a perfect run in the finals series and I doubt they will get that.

This isn't an eagles troll - merely a case of being a WA based footy with little or no exposure to non-WA clubs.

FWIW I think it's realistically between Hawthorn & Richmond.
Then Collingwood & West Coast
Then Melbourne & Sydney
Then GWS/Geelong

https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/w...orward-line-against-collingwood-ng-b88946674z

Kennnedy and Darling are certain starters. They will decide how far we go in September

 

[WCE Wizard]

1. Richmond - Obvious, could slip up but unlikley. Could be stronger next year.
2. West Coast - Nervous without Gaff and big nic but home ground factor should get them to GF
3. Sydney - Underrated, will get stars back
4. Melbourne - Good from, maybe another drought breaker
5. Hawthorn- best coached team, think they've been a bit lucky with a soft mid season draw and a few close ones. could be another 2016 or geelong of 14
6. Collingwood - Only beaten one top 8 team, could pinch one but wont go further then a prelim
7. Gws - All talent no grunt
8. Geelong - Very Lucky gawn missed, and the Dixon review. THree byes wont help either, do play well against richmond though

Actually Nic Nat has barely fired a shot in the finals love how everyone rates him all of a sudden. The one we will miss is Gaff. However if Kennedy and Darling have a massive September its game on. Richmond is by far the best team but anything can happen

 

[WCE Wizard]

Not including Richmond - I think we are best placed but not sure if we'll be able to flick the switch, can't really make a proper judgement

1) West Coast - MCG - who cares? Flogged Collingwood there not long ago. In a ripping position to get themselves into a GF and from there anything's possible
2) Hawthorn - Clarko is a mastermind and if I'm going to pick a coach that can properly pick apart our game plan it's him. Depends on whether the new guard stand up in finals as Hodge and the like did
3) Collingwood - pretty much level with Hawthorn, been stiffed a bit by the week 1 fixture though, so I put them marginally below the Hawks. Note, however, that no matter how they get there, if Collingwood play in a prelim, it WILL be at the G in front of a heaving crowd.

GAP - there's a reason only one team has made the GF from outside the 4 in the current system

4) Melbourne - in great form going into finals, and Perth doesn't faze them - which is their likely destination if they can get into a prelim. Question mark over whether they can maintain the rage for a whole month though.
5) Geelong - coming in with good form, albeit against poor teams and at KP. Massive question mark for mine over whether they have enough quality players for finals. Seem to rely a bit on the top few.
6) Sydney - always have to beware writing off this mob, but I can't put them clearly above anyone else
7) GWS - I thought they'd be in with a show if they could make top 4, as they've learnt to win ugly this year, but they've tailed off really badly when it was all there for them

Can throw a blanket over 4-7 though, I do understand Sydney knocked off Melbourne not too long ago, and funny things happen in September.

Thank you finally someone who talks sense. I love being the underdog, everyone but the tree person in Nepal says we cannot win the GF, all good for us. We know Richmond is the best team with fair reason they are superb and strong, but you dont finish second on the ladder by accident. However first things first, a very difficult game against a strong Pies team.

 

[NonPhixion]

1. Richmond
2. West Coast
3. Hawks
4. Pies
5. GWS
6. Cats
7. Dees
8. Swans.

GF: Richmond d West Coast by 23 points.
*Note: I think West Coast are the number 2 team and I Have Pies in 4 but I truly believe we would give Richmond the toughest match-up if we made it to the GF.

 

[WCE Wizard]

1. Richmond
2. West Coast
3. Hawks
4. Pies
5. GWS
6. Cats
7. Dees
8. Swans.

GF: Richmond d West Coast by 23 points.
*Note: I think West Coast are the number 2 team and I Have Pies in 4 but I truly believe we would give Richmond the toughest match-up if we made it to the GF.

I agree that our MCG form is not great, but It’s worth remembering that the premiership team doesn’t have to be perfect or have a perfect season. All they have to be is the last team left when everyone else has fallen over. Anything can happen on grand final day

 

[NonPhixion]

I agree that our MCG form is not great, but It’s worth remembering that the premiership team doesn’t have to be perfect or have a perfect season. All they have to be is the last team left when everyone else has fallen over. Anything can happen on grand final day

valid point. Im speaking from a pure match-up POV though, not really the fact that its played at the MCG because I think that will play minimal part in the result. FYI I think West Coast is the worst possible match-up for Collingwood in the whole top 8

 

[WCE Wizard]

valid point. Im speaking from a pure match-up POV though, not really the fact that its played at the MCG because I think that will play minimal part in the result. FYI I think West Coast is the worst possible match-up for Collingwood in the whole top 8

Also Kudos to your mob and my team, everybody wrote us off calling us bottom four material, no chance to play finals. We shut them all up really well. Kudos to Collingwood exceptional performances given the injuries.

For us it depends on the two J's, Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy if they fire through the finals we are big chance. If if's

 

[Heaps of fun]

Will be the choke of the century if Richmond drop this. The most dangerous teams in my mind (GWS, Geelong and Melbourne) all missed the double chance. Tigers can walk this one in.

 

[RobbieK]

Who ? Paul Kelly & Tony Lockett ? Mate there ain't no stars to come back. Next Year Mills will be back and he would be handy now as would Nick Smith for reliability in defence. Reid only has to look at a Sherrin and he tears soft tissue so I think you are off the mark.

Lance Franklin? Luke Parker?