Analysis Ranking teams in the modern era with a points based system

[jsdsgn]

I was intrigued as to how it might look if I ranked teams in the modern era (1990-2019) by awarding points for ladder placings and finals.

I came up with the following system:

Ladder:
1st gives 3 points
2nd to 4th gives 2 points
5th to 8th gives 1 point (excluding several seasons where top 6 made finals, and so 7th and 8th received 0 points)
Wooden spoon subtracts 1 point

Finals
Win Elimination Final - 1 point
Win Qualifying Final - 2 points
Win Semi Final - 2 points
Win Prelim Final - 3 points
Win Premiership - 5 points

Using a system like this rewards teams for sustained success or competitiveness rather than peak, which I prefer when analysing a team's success over time.
I am open for suggestions on how to improve this system. It is not adjusted to account for teams that have played less than the full 30 seasons.

Personally it seems pretty accurate and so the system isn't too far off. The one team that jumps out is probably Brisbane, although their peak in the early 00's sits among periods of missing finals and bottom 4 finishes. The Brisbane Bears and Fitzroys points were not added to Brisbane which also played a part.
It will be interesting to see how this changes after this years finals series.

The standings appear as follows...

1 - Geelong (108 pts)
2 - West Coast (101 pts)
3 - Hawthorn (91 pts)
4 - Sydney (81 pts)
5 - Collingwood (73 pts)
6 - Kangaroos (70 pts)
7 - Essendon (64 pts)
8 - Adelaide (63 pts)
9 - Brisbane (55 pts)
10 - Western Bulldogs (44 pts)
11 - Port Adelaide (43 pts)
12 - St Kilda (39 pts)
13 - Richmond (38 pts)
14 - Carlton (35 pts)
15 - Melbourne (30 pts)
16 - Fremantle (22 pts)
17 - GWS Giants 15 pts)
18 - Gold Coast (-2 points)

 

[Vintage]

If you’re going back to 1990 you need to normalise for the number of seasons each team has played

 

[Scotland]

I don't like the idea of the team with the most flags not being on top.

Unless you can come up with a system that has West Coast #1 in which case fair bump play on.

 

[HairyO]

How about skip the ladder positions and double the points for a Grand Final win.

What does that look like?

 

[Freomaniac]

Some one did another thread about this around 3-4 years back. I think I posted on there too

 

[Yojimbo]

The Expansion Era Extrapolation 2012-2020 (The Big Dogs):

Rank 1 = Geelong: 38 Points
Rank 2 = Hawthorn: 50 Points (3 x Flags)
Rank 3 = Richmond: 53 Points (2 x Flags)
Rank 4 = West Coast: 55 Points (1 x Flag)
Rank 5 = Sydney: 56 Points (1 x Flag)
Rank 6 = Port Adelaide: 72 Points
Rank 7 = Collingwood: 73 Points
Rank 8 = Adelaide: 77 Points

Rank 9 = Fremantle: 84 Points
Rank 10 = North Melbourne: 93 Points
Rank 11 = Western Bulldogs: 94 Points (1 x Flag)
Rank 12 = GWS Giants: 94 Points
Rank 13 = Essendon: 97 Points
Rank 14 = Brisbane: 111 Points
Rank 15 = St Kilda: 113 Points
Rank 16 = Melbourne: 114 Points
Rank 17 = Carlton: 125 Points
Rank 18 = Gold Coast: 140 Points

Although the ladder is finalized for 2020 we are yet to crown a premier, Geelong sit aloft upon their empty throne with no flags to wave from a truly amazing six top four finishes from the measured nine seasons which reminds me of a lyric from an Ian Dury song "What a waste, what a waste, but i don't mind". Seven of the eight Flags worked under or were members of the cult of Clarkson for a brief period, but that argument is bogus when you consider who inspired Clarko or was he destined to be a coach because of his immense football brain. A little EPL like down to Rank 5 (Sydney) at least, but we do have a finals system to extract the maximum entertainment out of the fans. If we crowned the premier as the top finishing side after the "Home and Away" season then the flag results would be as follows, Crows x 1, Dockers x 1, Cats x 1, Hawks x 2, Port x 1, Tigers x 1 and Swans x 2, but we don't we have glorious finals with the match ups dictated by a teams "Home and Away" finishing location. Is it fair ? or has a lack of breakfast made me ramble.

 

[Kwality]

I was intrigued as to how it might look if I ranked teams in the modern era (1990-2019) by awarding points for ladder placings and finals.

I came up with the following system:

Ladder:
1st gives 3 points
2nd to 4th gives 2 points
5th to 8th gives 1 point (excluding several seasons where top 6 made finals, and so 7th and 8th received 0 points)
Wooden spoon subtracts 1 point

Finals
Win Elimination Final - 1 point
Win Qualifying Final - 2 points
Win Semi Final - 2 points
Win Prelim Final - 3 points
Win Premiership - 5 points

Using a system like this rewards teams for sustained success or competitiveness rather than peak, which I prefer when analysing a team's success over time.
I am open for suggestions on how to improve this system. It is not adjusted to account for teams that have played less than the full 30 seasons.

Personally it seems pretty accurate and so the system isn't too far off. The one team that jumps out is probably Brisbane, although their peak in the early 00's sits among periods of missing finals and bottom 4 finishes. The Brisbane Bears and Fitzroys points were not added to Brisbane which also played a part.
It will be interesting to see how this changes after this years finals series.

The standings appear as follows...

1 - Geelong (108 pts)
2 - West Coast (101 pts)
3 - Hawthorn (91 pts)
4 - Sydney (81 pts)
5 - Collingwood (73 pts)
6 - Kangaroos (70 pts)
7 - Essendon (64 pts)
8 - Adelaide (63 pts)
9 - Brisbane (55 pts)
10 - Western Bulldogs (44 pts)
11 - Port Adelaide (43 pts)
12 - St Kilda (39 pts)
13 - Richmond (38 pts)
14 - Carlton (35 pts)
15 - Melbourne (30 pts)
16 - Fremantle (22 pts)
17 - GWS Giants 15 pts)
18 - Gold Coast (-2 points)

The team that loses the Grand Final needs to recognised more.

18 years should be the minimum term if you are dinkum, enough time for each side to win.

 

[Roddy]

This is the only one that matters....

Hawks - 5 flags
Everyone else....

 

[Hoops]

I don't like the idea of the team with the most flags not being on top.

Unless you can come up with a system that has West Coast #1 in which case fair bump play on.

You will love my premiership ladder Scotland. It even has Freo on the bottom

		Actual Premierships​	/​	Par Premierships​	=​	Score​
1​	West Coast​	4​	/​	2.06​	=​	1.95​
2​	Hawthorn​	13​	/​	7.24​	=​	1.80​
3​	Essendon​	16​	/​	10.22​	=​	1.57​
4​	Carlton​	16​	/​	10.63​	=​	1.50​
6​	Collingwood​	15​	/​	10.63​	=​	1.41​
5​	Melbourne​	12​	/​	10.09​	=​	1.19​
7​	Richmond​	12​	/​	9.26​	=​	1.30​
9​	Adelaide​	2​	/​	1.77​	=​	1.13​
8​	Brisbane/Fitzroy​	11​	/​	11.31​	=​	0.97​
10​	Geelong​	9​	/​	10.20​	=​	0.88​
11​	Port Adelaide​	1​	/​	1.38​	=​	0.73​
12​	North Melbourne​	4​	/​	7.24​	=​	0.55​
13​	Sydney​	5​	/​	10.38​	=​	0.48​
14​	Western Bulldogs​	2​	/​	7.24​	=​	0.28​
15​	St Kilda​	1​	/​	10.22​	=​	0.10​
16​	Greater Western Sydney​	0​	/​	0.44​	=​	0.00​
17​	Gold Coast​	0​	/​	0.50​	=​	0.00​
18​	University​	0​	/​	0.70​	=​	0.00​
19​	Fremantle​	0​	/​	1.50​	=​	0.00​

 

[jsdsgn]

I don't like the idea of the team with the most flags not being on top.

Unless you can come up with a system that has West Coast #1 in which case fair bump play on.

But...Hawthorn has more flags in the modern era??

 

[Goomba1973]

The team that loses the Grand Final needs to recognised more.

18 years should be the minimum term if you are dinkum, enough time for each side to win.

They are.... Win Prelim Final 3pts

 

[Kwality]

They are.... Win Prelim Final 3pts

Too little, 16 others in mothballs.

 

[jsdsgn]

Too little, 16 others in mothballs.

It felt pointless to reward teams for making it x far in the finals series. Example, I was going to give 1 pt for making the semi final, but top 4 is guaranteed semi final anyways so I may as well have given an extra point for making the top 4.

 

[Goomba1973]

Too little, 16 others in mothballs.

No points for losing. We got 9 points for making 3 grand finals we did not win.

 

[Kwality]

No points for losing. We got 9 points for making 3 grand finals we did not win.

The team that loses the GF goes unrecognised. In allocating points I'm suggested they have significantly out performed. Just an opinion.

 

[Goomba1973]

The team that loses the GF goes unrecognised. In allocating points I'm suggested they have significantly out performed. Just an opinion.

The team that lost the prelim does not get points for making it to the GF do they ? Hence the the team that did, is recognised with 3 points more that a team that did not make it is. This is not primary school athletics where participation awards are given. We are widely considered in the top 3 clubs of the modern era on finals appearances , finals won and GF wins, and there is not a person out there that can logically take that away from us. I'm a devout Eagles fan through and through but really dude , that's just clutching at straws.

 

[Altum Volantes]

jsdsgn - How much does it impact the OP if you divide the total points by number of seasons? - to give a more balanced result across the board.

I think you are safe to just include Brisbane Bears 90-96 with the Lions - let’s not pretend it wasn’t a continuation and Fitzroy’s results can be included if required.

 

[jsdsgn]

Altum Volantes

I will go ahead and do that now, but Ill completely disregard Bears and Fitzroy as they were shocking teams, and instead just look at the Lions since they came into the league. By dividing their points per season, it makes it fair anyway.

The revised standings, by points-per-season (PPS), is as follows:

1 - Geelong (3.6 PPS)
2 - West Coast (3.4 PPS)
3 - Hawthorn (3.0 PPS)
4 - Sydney (2.7 PPS)
5 - Collingwood (2.4 PPS)
6 - Brisbane (2.4 PPS)
7 - North Melbourne (2.3 PPS)
8 - Adelaide (2.2 PPS)
9 - Essendon (2.1 PPS)
10 - GWS Giants (1.9 PPS)
11 - Port Adelaide (1.8 PPS)
12 - Western Bulldogs (1.5 PPS)
13 - St. Kilda (1.3 PPS)
14 - Richmond (1.3 PPS)
15 - Carlton (1.2 PPS)
16 - Melbourne (1.0 PPS)
17 - Fremantle (0.9 PPS)
18 - Gold Coast(-0.2 PPS)

This gives probably the most accurate view. GWS are the big jumpers, which is even more impressive considering they've only been around for 8 years, had 2 wooden spoons and yet still average nearly 2 PPS.

Assumptions of success based on these points show that:

• Geelong, West Coast and Hawthorn regularly contend for top 4 with Collingwood and Sydney not far behind.
• North Melbourne and Brisbane's periods of dominance in the 1990's and early 2000s respectively cover the fact that, besides those years, they have been regularly mediocre.
• Adelaide's consistency may be somewhat underrated.
• Essendon's consistent period with some success between 1990-2004 carried their points total heavily.
• GWS has a great average despite having won the wooden spoon in a quarter of their seasons.
• St Kilda's failure in half a dozen grand finals and prelims - often by small margins - has meant they are 13th rather than top 4 which couldve easily been possible.
• Richmonds current dominance is their only successful period of the entire modern era.
• Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide have basically been smack bang average for a while with great seasons every now and then. Port were great in the early 2000s but have done not much since.
• Carlton, Melbourne and Fremantle have had a shocking 30 years.
• Gold Coast, on average, go backwards every year.

EDIT: If you go ahead and include Brisbane Bears and Fitzroy's seasons from 1990-96, they gain 3 points which, in the OP, leaves them 9th but on this revised ladder moves them down to 11th and 1.6 PPS since there are 23 BL seasons, 7 BB seasons and & 7 Fitzroy seasons.

 

[ioppolo]

Essendon being 7th and 9th in two of the tables is weird to look at considering they haven't won a final for 16 years.

 

[jsdsgn]

Essendon being 7th and 9th in two of the tables is weird to look at considering they haven't won a final for 16 years.

Yep. They were almost always a very good side in the 90s and early and despite not winning finals they at least make them sometimes.

 

[HairyO]

The team that loses the GF goes unrecognised. In allocating points I'm suggested they have significantly out performed. Just an opinion.

I recognise that Collingwood went 40 years losing Grand Finals.

 

[nameless]

I don't think the maths works in some cases.

Eg. finishing 5th-8th = 1
+ win elimination final = 1
+ win semi final = 2
Total = 4 points

Which is the same as:
Finish top 4 = 2
Win QF = 2
Total 4 points

I feel top 4 and QF win should be worth more.

 

[Chinacats]

Good work coming up with that system, but yeah premierships should maybe get 10 points.
And yeah hawks 5 cups stand on top in my opinion.
Cats 89-97 (although not counting 89) 2012-2020 always up there but no cups. So...

 

[Monkey King]

• Carlton, Melbourne and Fremantle have had a shocking 30 years.

More like Carlton have had an atrocious 20 years. The first 10 years of that 30 in the 90's was ok. 3 GF's for a premiership.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Winning a premiership should be 25 points, not 5. It's the entire reason why we play the game.