Preview Rd 10: Geelong v Gold Coast Sat May 22 2:10 pm @ GMHBA

[CatToTheFuture]

I feel like Zach Bailey is like a version of Toby Greene where he's actually a good bloke

 

[Gavin Excell]

I feel like Zach Bailey is like a version of Toby Greene where he's actually a good bloke

What about Matheson?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

What about Matheson?

A spiritual connection to Tom Atkins

 

[ShaunWDT]

Gold Coast are genuinely woeful and dont play GMHBA well, no excuses to not be 10 goals plus.

 

[foodles05]

Or maybe we’ll look back one day and say making him work hard for his spot in the senior side made him a far better player in the end, just like it has countless others over the past century. I guess we’ll see. I mean, would you rather work hard for your first 3 years to earn a spot in a contending Geelong team (under the tutelage of selwood, Scarlett, Enright etc) or walk into the Freo side and play each week but most likely end up less successful as a team and less developed as a player?

I think the difference is other players who are now very good didn't have to do the same thing. Clearly the match committee decided with both Henry and Kolo that they liked their future and would put up with pain at the time for long term gain. Henry especially despite having numerous average games wasnt always in and out of the side. I always thought so highly of him so I was happy for him to learn on the job. I think Clark is clearly a special talent who has gifts (like Henry) most will never possess. Don't think he is being treated the same way as others have. I think that shows that the old school you always have to earn it is archaic and not necessarily the best method. If you have a talent that you just know could be special you just eat the bad games early. Sometimes that is the best way to develop

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Let's see them for the 3 Tigers flags, and if they win it again this is the GOAT team- 4 in 5 years in an 18 team comp.

Given richmond made a mockery of the ruck position by rucking shaun grigg, id say the numbers wont be flattering in richmonds favour.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

And hawthorn had a sh** ruckman. Do you notice that Geelong only started losing to hawthorn when we no longer had a good ruckman in the side.

our streak against hawthorn was a result of us having 5 minute goal feats that was enabled by dominant ruck work that got us a run on and huge centre clearances multiple times in a row.

As shown through two triple premiership teams of the last decade, it is a worthless junk stat.

 

[ShaunWDT]

This
he is marking all around the ground which I what we badly need and frees up Hawkins around the ground

it would be madness to drop him

I dont mind playing him forward but hes got absolutely no idea in the Ruck, needs to be in the VFL if they want to develop his skillset there.

 

[Seeds]

Cheers

It's interesting looking at the numbers because it reminds me of an article from late last season about where is Blicavs best position - defence, wing or ruck, and how he compared in each of those positions relevant to teammates

"In the 40 games Geelong has played since the start of the 2019 season, Blicavs has split his time between three incredibly different positions. Champion Data logs him playing 26 of those games primarily as a key defender, eight games primarily on a wing and six games primarily in the ruck.

Break that down into his minutes on the field and Blicavs is spending 68.2 percent of his time as a key defender, 16.5 percent of his time as a ruckman and 13.5 percent of his time as a wingman."

In terms of the ruck rankings, he was compared with Stanley, Fort & Ratugolea, and where he fell behind the others last year, it doesn't seem that's necessarily happening this has year

IN THE RUCK?

Blicavs in the Ruck 2019-2020	Per 100 mins avg.	Club Rank (out of 4)
Ranking points	109.8	#1
Disposals	14.5	#1
Contested Possessions	8.3	#2
Clearances	4.4	#2
Hitout win %	38.4%	#3
Hitout-to-advantage win %	10.1%	#3

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward in terms of the ruck, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Blicavs spending more time there


Article here - https://www.afl.com.au/news/498582/...ow-star-cats-role-will-shape-geelong-fortunes

So he is 3rd best out of 4 ruckman on the only stats that distinguish a ruck Out of a terrible group of rucks. He gets less then 4 hit outs to advantage every 100 ruck contests.

and these stats don’t tell you that mos of blicavs rucking these days is done in the second half of games when he is relatively fresh compared to his opponent giving him a distinct advantage. And yet his ruck stats are still this woeful. I actually thought he would be number 1 in hit outs and hit outs to Advantage percentages this season as I thought he had gotten better And was using this second half freshness advantage well.

and ofcourse the biggest failure of Blicavs rucking has always been the hitouts to advantage his opponents gets when he is rucking. This stat isn’t available but as another poster pointed out. It’s not just the hit outs to advantage that you get but the ones your ruck opponent gets as well that matters in evaluating rucks.

 

[Seeds]

I am an engineer mate, and you clearly don't need significance tests to know that the stat is not a good indicator. Richmond is consistently one of the worst teams for pure hit out stats yet one of the best teams in the comp for clearances.

The long answer is that no two ruckman have exactly the same game style and they as such can't be measured with a single stat. Do you measure Nanks impact in hitouts? Because I think you'd be best off counting his back half intercept marks and tackles. Grundy his contested possession count. Gawn his score involvements. You also can't compare individuals because the good ones never play the same role

So if you want to talk about actual stats then my opinion as a professional engineer is that you're trying to measure magnitude of influence using a unit that doesn't actually record it.

Yes you do need significance tests if you want to base it on statistical analysis rather than logic. That’s exactly what you need. I have a background in statistics.

Hand picked sample sizes of 3, 10 or 20 as you have just used to try to make your case are statistical poison and tell you absolutely nothing. Especially on a minor driver of a games results such as hit outs.

 

[Lana]

Neither raw hit outs nor hit out to advantage make much sense as stats to judge rucks and ruck/midfield synergy by. The better stat imo would be hit outs to advantage differential. The reason why raw hit outs stats don't matter is self-evident, but hit outs to advantage is also a weak metric imo, since a ruck could very well accumulate have 35%+ of their hit outs be to advantage but also concede a lot of opposition hit outs to advantage.

I just want to see the unaccounted for hitouts to disadvantage differential as well. Repeat stoppages percentage

 

[Lana]

Pretty sure a guy did a study on it and found centre clearances were basically random. I'll see if I can dig it up.

Over the course of a season it doesn't surprise me, due to the even quality of the competition, in specific games and matchups it would be less so.

 

[Seeds]

As shown through two triple premiership teams of the last decade, it is a worthless junk stat.

Nope that showed nothing. Insufficient. Hand picked. I could easily hand pick teams and premiers to make the exact opposite case. And I would be wrong too.

 

[Seeds]

Gold Coast are genuinely woeful and dont play GMHBA well, no excuses to not be 10 goals plus.

We said the same about north though. You can never just walk up and produce a 10 goal win.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

These next two weeks are important for top 4 aspirations. The Dees and Dogs are starting to break away from the pack and the Lions are surging. We can make it extremely difficult for Richmond. They are a big danger with a healthy list.

So just win.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yep......and yet others get relegated for the same reason

I think its pretty clear stanley is on the nose with MC and while jenkins is in far better form than sav jenkins cant ruck. So unless they put fort in sav is getting games by default.

 

[xtatik222k]

These next two weeks are important for top 4 aspirations. The Dees and Dogs are starting to break away from the pack and the Lions are surging. We can make it extremely difficult for Richmond. They are a big danger with a healthy list.

So just win.

The long and short of it.

 

[Gunf]

We said the same about north though. You can never just walk up and produce a 10 goal win.

We couldn't hit the side of a barn when shooting for goal against North.

 

[Seeds]

I think its pretty clear stanley is on the nose with MC and while jenkins is in far better form than sav jenkins cant ruck. So unless they put fort in sav is getting games by default.

The same thing has happened in almost every previous year though and every time we realise the alternative to Stanley is worse. and it doesn’t take long.

 

[Seeds]

We couldn't hit the side of a barn when shooting for goal against North.

Or against Sydney. It’s a common thing to have those sort of games. Especially at windy Geelong.

 

[Seeds]

If narkle has an issue with running out games then why is he playing solely in the middle rather then the foward line?

rohan cant run out games so we don’t play him as a midfielder. Narkle should be the same. He is has fantastic goal nous and would be very dangerous up foward.

 

[cats_09]

Game day - take discussion here please

Game Day - Rd 10: Geelong v Gold Coast Sat May 22 2:10 pm @ GMHBA

Back at KP on a lovely sunny Saturday afternoon, 20 degrees and BOM has told us 0% chance of rain So which GFC team we turn up today - will it be one with the accuracy showed against WCE & Richmond or will GC park a bus behind the ball like North in an attempt to limit the scoreboard damage...

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