Preview Rd 14: Brisbane Lions v Melbourne

[POBT]

Date:Sunday, 1 July 2012

Time:

3.15pm local time

Venue:

Gabba

Ticket Info:

Here

TV and Radio Coverage:

All areas: Live on FoxFooty and 7 or 7mate from 3.00pm (except SA where the bloody Port game takes priority on FTA!)

Social Media:

TBA

Last time they met:

Lions by 41 (Rd 1, 2012)

Betting Odds

Lions $1.25: Demons $3.85

Weather Report

Fine, mostly sunny. Min 10 Max 21

 

[POBT]

Preview by T Factor

The only thing I like about Demons is their club song, and you won’t be hearing it at the Gabba this Sunday afternoon, get ready for the Mighty Roar.

Last five weeks Brisbane LWBLW
Melbourne LWLBW

The last time the teams played we had a rare recent win at the MCG beating Melbourne by 119 to 78. There were high hopes for the season but after another month it was clear we all underestimated how bad the Demons were at the time. Fast forward to Round 14 and both teams are on the up and have had two wins and a bye in the last five rounds. Melbourne had an emotional win against the Bombers, that broke their duck, and a comfortable win against GWS. The Lions on the other hand could easily have been 0-4 over the last five weeks. Wins against the Eagles (a personal favourite as I am in WA) and against the Bulldogs has shown that our young list has the potential to take us where we want to be….finals. We have some work to do but it is nice to be at Round 14, four points out of the eight, and our season alive.

Why the Lions by 34 points.

Our defence has been one of our strengths. With Patfull and Maguire having a shaky 2011, and the move of Merrett up forward, it did look like an area where we may struggle. Goose has been magnificent (best pick 91 ever), hopefully there is no damage to his elbow and he plays this week. Patfull, Adcock, Drummond, Hanley have all done the job defensively and are working well as a unit. I have been a bit disappointed with Ash this year so hopefully he stays up forward where he is more dangerous. Melbourne are trying to find a functioning forward line and though Mitch Clark has been very good he is now out for the rest of the year. They are trying a few different options like Garland and Rivers but it is hard to see where they are going to kick a decent score. We have a flexible group down back and even without Goose, we will have them covered.

Our young midfielders are growing up. Rocky, Rich and Redden are all improving and are having a bigger impact on games for longer. They are hunting the ball now and hitting harder in tackles. No longer are we relying on Simon Black. Just for Hammo, no longer are we relying on Simon Black. We have also seen a better contribution from the likes of Polks and Lester, and Zorko has made an instant impact. Raines should take Trengove and is playing like a new man; he is even kicking goals, where did that come from? Nathan Jones is in good form so he may be also get a tag. Sylvia will play this time after missing round 1 and is also one we will need to watch. I would love to see Golby play more through the middle, he has been great in defence but his composure with the ball has been a standout, could he develop and play more as an inside mid? Huddo should hold his spot and will have a job to do against one of their better players in Jamar. With no Clark Melbourne will need to find a second ruck (Martin?), Merrett is the obvious one for us, Billy Longer could come into contention.

The Brown-Merrett combination is working, with the midfielders providing good supply in recent weeks these guys will get the job done. Watts has been very good for the Dees after he was moved down back, he reads the game well and has good skills coming out of defence. I know they need to find forwards but given he is playing solid footy he should stay in defence. If Frawley goes to Brown then the Merrett match up (Sellar?) will work to our advantage with sauce playing deep. Ash has to play up forward as he has the ability to kick a bag. Zorko has added another dimension to our game with his energy and goal kicking. He is also playing well in the middle, tackling hard and winning the ball. Bewick also had his best game for the Lions last week so will go in with some confidence.

It is hard to see too many changes this week, Polks and Harwood seem to be getting defensive jobs and are going ok (I just got to see our second half against the dogs and Harwood was very good against Cooney) and we look like we might need McKeever again this week. Acorn is improving this year and may come in to stretch their defence and make it a hard choice as to where to play Rivers and Garland. I would also like to see Patty K and Billy Longer again sooner rather than later. We have had solid contributions from a lot of players over the last few weeks, we are playing as a real unit and this will make the difference at home. We have started well recently and Melbourne had a slow start against GWS. If that happens on Sunday then expect the Lions by plenty.

 

[Covertackle]

i posted this in another thread. but it fits in here also.


what makes the melbourne vs lions game interesting is the psycology of both teams coming into this game, and their recent history.

brisbane, has suddenly found form, has a sniff of finals, have a home game and seem to be keen for the task. however they now have the preasure of winning to make the finals. how will they react to that?

melbourne on the orther hand have had a dismal season. as soon as they couldnt make the finals, as soonas the preasure to succeed was off, they began to fire. they are now a team that plays with nothing to lose, and under no preasure.

on paper and on recent 2 game form, there is nothing in this. two equal teams. pure psycology will win this game.

which team wants it the most? the team that can make the finals, with that added preasure? or the one that cant make the finals, with no preasure?

im tipping melbourne, simply because they can now just play for the love of the game, which is as it should be.

the lions are dangerous as the preasure may add to controlled desperation and players playing above themselves. its an interesting match up. should be a great game.

 

[POBT]

Thanks T Factor for a great preview.

It is hard not to get excited about the possibility of winning 2 in a row. The bookies have us clear cut favourites at $1.25 - not sure the last time we've been that short against a non-expansion club.

 

[POBT]

brisbane, has suddenly found form, has a sniff of finals, have a home game and seem to be keen for the task. however they now have the preasure of winning to make the finals. how will they react to that?

I think the risk of complacency is the biggest factor. We've beaten a contender at home and a similarly placed club away. They are really good wins and it is no wonder that the club seems buoyed. But all the good work is undone is we are sloppy or lack intensity against Melbourne who have also in their best patch of footy for the season.

I don't yet have the confidence in this group that they have the consistency of a top 8 side - unfortunately we're still going to have games where they surprise us with their performances, good or bad.

 

[Cousin Jed]

I'm not sure finals are really on the radar of the players.

 

[Covertackle]

to be honest, melbourne are my second team, but im a queenslander, so i'll be torn on the weekend. my son will be barracking for whomever is in front. he has a signed melbourne guernsey, and a lions one. he goes for the lions but also goes for melbourne. actually he gos for whoever is in front...

i dont really mind who wins. at least the lions have a finals chance. but i feel sorry for the dees. ive know how to pick em....GC and the dees.....

 

[irel]

Great preview T Factor.

The F word should be shelved for this season. Come next year's pre-season F should be dusted off and take a prime spot on everyone’s Preview Post.

For the reminder of the year, enjoy the wins and vent the losses.

 

[jackess]

I'd like a really big win here but I think it's fair to expect the team to be a bit flat after a big build up to last weekend. Maybe a couple of changes to introduce some youngstars hungry to cement a spot.

 

[POBT]

Will be interesting to see what the effects are of the back to back travel, plus the emotional let down after the HoF weekend. That is countered somewhat by the 8 day break.

Also good to see that we get a spot on FTA TV after a solid few weeks of footy.

 

[Cousin Jed]

Will be interesting to see what the effects are of the back to back travel, plus the emotional let down after the HoF weekend. That is countered somewhat by the 8 day break.

Also good to see that we get a spot on FTA TV after a solid few weeks of footy.

What little interest 7 had in this game must now be gone with Mitch out.

 

[GingerGreatness]

Wasn't there, but I'm not so sure if there'll be a Hall of Fame emotional let down. Still buzzing that Bulldog took the time during his acceptance speech to get the playing group to stand and address them, telling them to leave their mark on the club. If that address were to me, I'd feel 10ft tall and want to run through the next concrete wall I saw.

I mean, what a legend of a bloke - directing the accolades for him towards sending a message to the playing group. It would be nice if Bulldog's words were at the forefront of the guys minds come 3.15pm on Sunday.

 

[Haso]

Great review T Factor.

I agree POBT, complacency is my biggest worry after winning last week and beating them in round 1 is that the boys will unconsciously rest on their laurels. On the other hand, the strong voices of Brownie, Blackie and Sauce should be in everybody's ears all week about not letting up now. Voss has spoken to the media this week about maintaining consistency across weeks, Angus Johnson and Kevin Murray spoke inspirationally to the boys on Saturday night, and even Roos took time out of running around naked save for a Swans scarf to kinda sorta pump the Lions up. If they stay switched on they will win by a respectable margin.

I think that those youngsters who are the most fatigued will be rested after the 2 trips away, some fresh blood will come back in (Polec and Beams?), and as always (sometimes) we will give it a solid crack.

 

[POBT]

What little interest 7 had in this game must now be gone with Mitch out.

No real blockbuster on Sunday. St K v North, Geelong v Port. Not much to choose from for c7.

 

[jackess]

Except here in Adelaide we have to watch the bloody Port game on FTA. We have a nice gap between round 2 and round 21 of no Lions games on FTA.

 

[POBT]

Wasn't there, but I'm not so sure if there'll be a Hall of Fame emotional let down. Still buzzing that Bulldog took the time during his acceptance speech to get the playing group to stand and address them, telling them to leave their mark on the club. If that address were to me, I'd feel 10ft tall and want to run through the next concrete wall I saw.

I mean, what a legend of a bloke - directing the accolades for him towards sending a message to the playing group. It would be nice if Bulldog's words were at the forefront of the guys minds come 3.15pm on Sunday.

Hope you're right GG. The players seem to have indicated that they felt the need to lift for the HoF game. I guess my question is "what's their motivation this week?" If Bulldog's words provide it, fantastic.

A good team shouldn't need external motivation but we're still on that learning curve.

 

[POBT]

Except here in Adelaide we have to watch the bloody Port game on FTA. We have a nice gap between round 2 and round 21 of no Lions games on FTA.

OP has been updated to reflect this!

 

[jackess]

OP has been updated to reflect this!

I would've used stronger language if it was allowed on here. Sick of Port.

 

[blynd_freddie]

Great Preview T Factor!

But I don't know what some people are thing?

What little interest 7 had in this game must now be gone with Mitch out.

Surely this is the Match of the round? This game is the only game where both teams are 'in form' or are coming off a win in the previous round!

I think the risk of complacency is the biggest factor. We've beaten a contender at home and a similarly placed club away. They are really good wins and it is no wonder that the club seems buoyed. But all the good work is undone is we are sloppy or lack intensity against Melbourne who have also in their best patch of footy for the season.

I don't yet have the confidence in this group that they have the consistency of a top 8 side - unfortunately we're still going to have games where they surprise us with their performances, good or bad.

Complacency is a justified call POBT, not only a possible 'let down' from the hype of HoF but also the fact that you wouldn't want the thought of the next four games [3 home and the only away a short flight to Sydney] 'relaxing' them mentally!
*edit - ooops old fixture/not thinking the GCS game is 'there' not at the Gabba

Believe it or not this is a danger home game - pencilled in as a win by many preseason and after such an emotional win last week.

But I'm of the thought; the win against WCE, the first half against the Hawks and arguably our first 4 quarter game against the doggies should have the boys roaring on the training track and just itching for Sunday to come around to get back out there. The mental seeds of the future have been planted; good mental coaching during the week should be the glass house protection for steady 2012 development.

Go LIONS!!!

 

[Baby_Jenks]

Echoing a few sentiments in this thread already but the game will be won and lost in the coaches box and for once Voss has the upper hand experience wise. Who Raines goes to, who Polks goes to and which of ours picks up Slyvia will go a long way to winning this match.

 

[lionbear]

Sadly I believe this is last time us Victorian supporters will see the Lions on free to air in 2012. We have done well in the games we are suppose to win in 2012 and I think even though we can be a little hot and cold with our development, the loss of Clark to them and us managing to escape suspension with Black we should bring home the cookies for our last look at the Lions on TV in 2012.

Brisbane by 23 points.

 

[Grimreepah]

After beating all of the bottom three teams comfortably earlier in the season there is a sense that there's nothing to gain this week.

But Melbourne have been a better side in recent weeks, so I think they are capable of challenging us.

 

[Ironmonger]

Here in Canberra we get two consecutive Lions games on free to air! Melbourne this week, Sydney next week. It's like some kind of beautiful dream...

The really intriguing thing about this match up for me is how the Demons forwardline will set up. Neeld appears very keen to stock the forward 50 with mid size forwards, with the big presence of Mitch Clark running out of the goalsquare. I suppose Stefan Martin will come in, but they might give Davis a debut. McKeever should go okay on either of those players.

I really rate Garland as a forward for the Dees. He can impact the contest, take a strong mark and is a good set shot. Thankfully we have a great match up for him in Patfull.

If Neeld keeps the same structure as last week, then that means Rivers, Howe and Dunn will play forward for most of the game. They make for some tricky matchups, but honestly between Drummond, Lester and Adcock we might give away some height but what we lose in the odd contested mark we should more than make up for in defensive rebounding.

The Melbourne midfield is very proletarian. Their better users of the ball (Watts and Grimes) tend to set up from the back rather than drive them forward. Jones is their dominant midfielder, and he has a tendency to turn it over. I really rate Sylvia as a mid who can move forward, and it'll be interesting who we send to him. Golby maybe, but I think he's giving away a bit of muscle.

On the one hand, Melbourne are on the up with plenty of motivation for this game. But I can't really see how they're going to hurt us. Unless we have a big letdown from the good win last week I can't see them troubling us.

 

[Full Wingspan]

How convenient is it that Nan's 80th birthday lunch is on at the same time. Ahhh

 

[MacMum]

Melbourne are very capable of beating us imo, have done it a few times when they shouldn't have.....just as we are more than capable of giving them a good hiding......thats why this game worries me, not sure which team is going to turn up to play....hoping like hell its us