Prediction RD16: Changes vs Melbourne

[Dockernut]

As much as I rate Big Darcy and hope that he plays for us soon and also enjoyed seeing his dominant performance on Saturday, he looked to me to have some significant strapping/padding on his bad leg. So I reckon Jones comes in this week and Big Darcy plays against Port.

 

[masai]

Lol. Just lol.

At least Ballas turned up, his partner in crime Matera was conspicuously absent.

Having said that, I have been relatively happy with Matera this year.

 

[Rob]

As much as I rate Big Darcy and hope that he plays for us soon and also enjoyed seeing his dominant performance on Saturday, he looked to me to have some significant strapping/padding on his bad leg. So I reckon Jones comes in this week and Big Darcy plays against Port.

Lyon did say Darcy and B Hill were obvious ins.

Before yesterday's debacle I thought we were a decent chance this week. Darwin will suit us more than Melbourne, and they're low on confidence.

 

[Tundrawolf]

Nyhuis was on a hiding to nothing, the poor guy would not have been mentally prepared for the game and while he was poor and has not been great this year, I think you can excuse yesterday's performance. The same can't be said about Ballantyne and Matera. Ballas has set such a low bar over the last few seasons that we think anything more than a couple of reasonable quarters as good. He has been poor for so long now and in our present transition should not be played any longer. Matera was also poor yesterday, and as has been said there are no small forwards to put pressure on him.

Our fitness department definitely needs a review. I'm not sure many clubs would have players of the caliber of Fyfe, Sandi, Blakely, BHill, Bennell, Darcy, Logue and Shill out at various stages through the year without questions being asked. I know a couple of years ago the club wasn't happy with the lengthy injury list to key players but nothing came of it.

It's absolutely ridiculous that supporters would be calling for the inclusion of Danyle Pearce at the expense of our younger players in a rebuild.

Sutcliffe, Sheridan, Ballas, Johnson, Spurr, Pearce should not play again and this should be Sandi's last year. I'm sure there's a couple more I have forgotten.

 

[sherrif]

Out: Fyfe, Ballantyne, Nyhuis and Sheridan.

In: Darcy, Bennell, Duman and B Hill.

FB: Duman Hamling Wilson
HB: Ryan A Pearce Kersten
C: Langdon Mundy S Hill
HF: Giro Cox Walters
FF: Matera Apeness Bennell

R: Darcy Cerra Neale

I: B Hill Brayshaw Banfield Tucker

These are my ideal ins as well. I think it is unlikely Bennell returns next week, but if he can play three quarters of a game in the midfield at Peel he must be at least a chance to play a game of afl as the deepest forward surely. Personally I wouldnt mind if Nyhuis was chosen over Tucker as well. The most likely scenario (in terms who will actually be selected) in my view is that the ins are Darcy, B.Hill and Duman with Fyfe, Nyhuis and one of Giro/Matera/Ballantyne the outs as well. I really, really hope we stop playing a five man forward line with three forwards under 178cm. It means unless one of the three smalls are free it is dead easy for the opposition to spoil a freo forward in the air as the opposition spare can zone off to double team one of only two taller Freo forwards. Sheridan has been decent over the last three weeks overall, but his decision making is terrible still. I think he will keep his place, but Id prefer to get more games into Nyhuis.

 

[Taylor]

Brady Grey

 

[Freomaniac]

Nyhuis was on a hiding to nothing, the poor guy would not have been mentally prepared for the game and while he was poor and has not been great this year, I think you can excuse yesterday's performance. The same can't be said about Ballantyne and Matera. Ballas has set such a low bar over the last few seasons that we think anything more than a couple of reasonable quarters as good. He has been poor for so long now and in our present transition should not be played any longer. Matera was also poor yesterday, and as has been said there are no small forwards to put pressure on him.

Our fitness department definitely needs a review. I'm not sure many clubs would have players of the caliber of Fyfe, Sandi, Blakely, BHill, Bennell, Darcy, Logue and Shill out at various stages through the year without questions being asked. I know a couple of years ago the club wasn't happy with the lengthy injury list to key players but nothing came of it.

It's absolutely ridiculous that supporters would be calling for the inclusion of Danyle Pearce at the expense of our younger players in a rebuild.

Sutcliffe, Sheridan, Ballas, Johnson, Spurr, Pearce should not play again and this should be Sandi's last year. I'm sure there's a couple more I have forgotten.

A lot of guys have been given Debut games as it is: Cerra, Corwden, Brayshaw, Banfield, Giro, duman and Scott Jones. that's 7 Already. Only guys I want to Debut now is strnadica and Dixon.

I don't mind giving Danyle Pearce games. It is only because we have a few injuries and down to our bare bones in guys we have left Available.

Some people want Ballas out. Fair enough but who do we bring in? Another mid?

Just a Bit of a Random thought but Michael Johnson played all 22 games last season and some people said he was cooked. I would of expected him to have played 15-7 games last year and let a young guy to take his spot for 5-7 games Like a sam Collins or Griffen Logue.

Some people want the old guys like Sandi, Johnson, Ballantyne and Danyle Pearce to retire this year. lus the Hacks like Sheridan and Sutcliffe to be gone. Here is the problem...

Freo have no 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounder this year. That is due to trading or 2nd rounder to GWS for Nathan Wilson. We traded our 3rd rounder to the suns for Matera and traded our 4th rounder and Crozier to the Bulldogs for pick 40 and 82 in the 2017 draft.

So as it stands, we have a 1st rounder, a 5th rounder, a 6th rounder and 7th rounder.

 

[Alfonz]

I really, really hope we stop playing a five man forward line with three forwards under 178cm. It means unless one of the three smalls are free it is dead easy for the opposition to spoil a freo forward in the air as the opposition spare can zone off to double team one of only two taller Freo forwards.

And Ballantyne and Matera are super short people ... 173cm versus even 178cm is a big difference.

Our small forwards should come from Walters, Bennell, Grey, Banfield, maybe give North a go when he debuts. Look to draft someone like Rankine.

 

[Tundrawolf]

Only guys I want to Debut now is strnadica and Dixon.

I don't mind giving Danyle Pearce games. It is only because we have a few injuries and down to our bare bones in guys we have left Available.

Let me ask you this, do you see Danyle Pearce getting another contract beyond this year? If your answer is no, then what is the point of playing him for the rest of the year? Wouldn't you rather see if guys like North, Crowden, Hughes et al have what it takes?

I completely get your point about having low draft picks but I also don't see the value of having players on the list who are not good enough or too old to be depth.

I am very much looking forward to seeing Dixon in action. Strnadica I don't think will make it, some have hopes that he can make it as a forward, but his lack of athletic ability and being slow make him nearly useless as a ruck.

 

[Freomaniac]

Let me ask you this, do you see Danyle Pearce getting another contract beyond this year? If your answer is no, then what is the point of playing him for the rest of the year? Wouldn't you rather see if guys like North, Crowden, Hughes et al have what it takes?

I completely get your point about having low draft picks but I also don't see the value of having players on the list who are not good enough or too old to be depth.

I am very much looking forward to seeing Dixon in action. Strnadica I don't think will make it, some have hopes that he can make it as a forward, but his lack of athletic ability and being slow make him nearly useless as a ruck.

I see your points. I just remember this time 2 years ago, freo had 3 wins and 10 losses and were down to 26 fit players.

It hasn't been that bad yet with the injury front. But I don't see Danyle pearce playing beyond this season. I don't mind playing the 1st year players and some have been playing well. But lets be realistic, some of these guys are fresh out of High School and have only played 1 season of WAFL/SANFL/VFL. I don't expect our 1st year players to win a brownlow medal. North Will probably get a debut game late in the season and so will Meek

Look I would of been happy just to have 4 or 5 debutants getting 1-5 games each then build their endurance levels in the WAFL. Peel won the last 2 WAFL flags with some freo youngsters and Freo fringe players. In 2016, peel won the flag with with 18 dockers players in that 22. In 2017 it was only 14 and one of them was Zac Dawson.

 

[Joao]

Duman and North could play inside mid.
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You what now? Duman can't handle small/medium forwards so would get bulldozed by Melbourne's inside brigade.

ZERO chance he plays inside mid.

 

[Unique Name]

Mundy & Neale will be our main two inside mids.

Walters - SHill - Brayshaw - Cerra - Banfield will rotate through.

Darcy as the main ruck will allow us to keep some structure. Apeness/Cox as the two talls up forward and Kersten can stay down back with AP/Hamling.

It's our outside run that provides us with the best chance of beating Melbourne. They're a fairly slow side.

I wouldn't be against a debutant or maybe Bennell as a forward. Fire up the boys.


Kersten - Hamling - Ryan
Wilson - APearce - Cerra
B Hill - Neale - Langdon
Walters - Cox - Giro
Matera - Ape - Bennell

Darcy - Mundy - S Hill

Brayshaw - Banfield - Tucker - Sherro

Out: Fyfe - Nyhuis - Ballas
In: Darcy - B Hill - Bennell

So many players on shaky ground after that performance. Who knows who the outs will be.

 

[Mr Fonebone]

Out: Sandi, Fyfe, Pearce A ( all injured ), Ballas(never performs on the road )

In: Darcy, Bhill, Dumin, Bennell

 

[Son of a Wizard]

Out: Sandi, Fyfe, Pearce A ( all injured ), Ballas(never performs on the road )

In: Darcy, Bhill, Dumin, Bennell

How can Sandi be out if he didn’t play?

 

[sherrif]

Let me ask you this, do you see Danyle Pearce getting another contract beyond this year? If your answer is no, then what is the point of playing him for the rest of the year? Wouldn't you rather see if guys like North, Crowden, Hughes et al have what it takes?

I completely get your point about having low draft picks but I also don't see the value of having players on the list who are not good enough or too old to be depth.

I am very much looking forward to seeing Dixon in action. Strnadica I don't think will make it, some have hopes that he can make it as a forward, but his lack of athletic ability and being slow make him nearly useless as a ruck.

The value of playing Danyle Pearce is that the argument that simply playing a lot of young kids to rebuild successfully is absolute rubbish. Plenty of players are better off developing skills at local league level before playing afl games, rather than simply playing all kids and thinking that by magic they will develop. Look at Timothy Kelly, Zorko, Stewart and plenty of others. Playing a kid before they are ready has failed miserably as a rebuilding strategy in recent years. It simply is an over simplistic strategy that makes supporters think their team is developing when the reality is players not up to afl level can work on weaknesses at the slower paced local league level, so therefore some players development is enhanced by not exposing them to afl level when not ready. I wouldnt play Danyle this week, but there is more merit in playing a couple of senior players in short term roles (to allow more players to develop at local level) than most here admit.

 

[Rion]

The value of playing Danyle Pearce is that the argument that simply playing a lot of young kids to rebuild successfully is absolute rubbish. Plenty of players are better off developing skills at local league level before playing afl games, rather than simply playing all kids and thinking that by magic they will develop. Look at Timothy Kelly, Zorko, Stewart and plenty of others. Playing a kid before they are ready has failed miserably as a rebuilding strategy in recent years. It simply is an over simplistic strategy that makes supporters think their team is developing when the reality is players not up to afl level can work on weaknesses at the slower paced local league level, so therefore some players development is enhanced by not exposing them to afl level when not ready. I wouldnt play Danyle this week, but there is more merit in playing a couple of senior players in short term roles (to allow more players to develop at local level) than most here admit.

Ehhh I mean it's pretty obvious most players develop quicker playing AFL than any lower league. Otherwise why in the world does any club ever play 1st or 2nd year players?

Anyway our best games this year (and last) have come when we have kicked out Pearce, Ballas, Johnno etc and backed in the youngsters.

 

[Rion]

Ballas probably keeps his spot just on the fact that we legitimately have no small forwards to replace him.

How much better we would have looked had we picked up a couple of Ronke/Papley/Guelfi types instead of the 3 rucks we got in Stranadica, Jones and Meek who all won't last more than the end of next year.

 

[samFFC]

Out: Sandilands, Nyhuis, Fyfe
In: Darcy, Bradley Hill, Bennell

This! Except Ballantyne out instead of Sandi. Apeness parks up forward, Kersten parks down back.

 

[samFFC]

Mundy & Neale will be our main two inside mids.

Walters - SHill - Brayshaw - Cerra - Banfield will rotate through.

Darcy as the main ruck will allow us to keep some structure. Apeness/Cox as the two talls up forward and Kersten can stay down back with AP/Hamling.

It's our outside run that provides us with the best chance of beating Melbourne. They're a fairly slow side.

I wouldn't be against a debutant or maybe Bennell as a forward. Fire up the boys.


Kersten - Hamling - Ryan
Wilson - APearce - Cerra
B Hill - Neale - Langdon
Walters - Cox - Giro
Matera - Ape - Bennell

Darcy - Mundy - S Hill

Brayshaw - Banfield - Tucker - Sherro

Out: Fyfe - Nyhuis - Ballas
In: Darcy - B Hill - Bennell

So many players on shaky ground after that performance. Who knows who the outs will be.

Agree with those changes.
Interesting you've got SHill in at ruck-rover. I think that's a good move and could be a chance for him to get back some confidence he has lost across half-back this season, especially recently. However I think Cerra should be given first run there, and Hill/Bray can replace Cerra and Mundy as they take rests up forward.

 

[james brayshaw]

Ballas probably keeps his spot just on the fact that we legitimately have no small forwards to replace him.

How much better we would have looked had we picked up a couple of Ronke/Papley/Guelfi types instead of the 3 rucks we got in Stranadica, Jones and Meek who all won't last more than the end of next year.

Switkowski is our version i think

 

[Mr Fonebone]

How can Sandi be out if he didn’t play?

Excellent work spotting the deliberate mistake.
Out Fyfe AP and Ballas
In Darcy Bhill and Bennell

 

[sherrif]

Ehhh I mean it's pretty obvious most players develop quicker playing AFL than any lower league. Otherwise why in the world does any club ever play 1st or 2nd year players?

Anyway our best games this year (and last) have come when we have kicked out Pearce, Ballas, Johnno etc and backed in the youngsters.

Rubbish. Some players develop by being exposed early, while others don't. Look at Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda and Gold Coast who have been rebuilding for ages. Simply playing all kids does not necessarily enhance player development.Gold Coast has clearly suffered from over exposing too much youth to roles they were not physically ready for. Teams play first and second year players because if they are up to the pace of the game they benefit from playing early on, but if they are not (ready for afl) then the idea that they will miraculously improve is a complete fallacy.

How is it that a player like Elliot Yeo (who didn't play much top level football his first two years on an afl list) develops quicker than a player who plays early on in their career like Nic Suban in terms of consistently impacting games at the highest level. It is because players develop at different rates and many need extra time to work on weaknesses at the lower level, while others like Andrew Brayshaw are equipped to play at afl level from day one so they benefit from being exposed to the pace of the game at the highest level from early on in their careers.

Crowden for example needs to work on winning more of the football to develop into a good afl footballer. If he can progress in that department at the local level his chances of playing at a higher level when he plays his next afl game improve, rather than simply playing him at the higher level and expecting development to just happen. Tucker is another who I think benefits from playing a solid block of four or five WAFL games where if he can be put in one position and focus on being involved in the game for longer periods. Playing him every week, but positioning him all over the ground certainly isn't enhancing his development.

We are playing a heap of kids and exposing them to the pace of afl football. Letting a handful of players build confidence and developing them for a few extra games at WAFl by mixing in veterans for a couple of games certainly doesnt hurt our overall player development. There is plenty of evidence it (playing a few more games in your first few years on a list at local league level) actually helps some players.

 

[Rion]

Rubbish. Some players develop by being exposed early, while others don't. Look at Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda and Gold Coast who have been rebuilding for ages. Simply playing all kids does not necessarily enhance player development.Gold Coast has clearly suffered from over exposing too much youth to roles they were not physically ready for. Teams play first and second year players because if they are up to the pace of the game they benefit from playing early on, but if they are not (ready for afl) then the idea that they will miraculously improve is a complete fallacy.

How is it that a player like Elliot Yeo (who didn't play much top level football his first two years on an afl list) develops quicker than a player who plays early on in their career like Nic Suban in terms of consistently impacting games at the highest level. It is because players develop at different rates and many need extra time to work on weaknesses at the lower level, while others like Andrew Brayshaw are equipped to play at afl level from day one so they benefit from being exposed to the pace of the game at the highest level from early on in their careers.

Crowden for example needs to work on winning more of the football to develop into a good afl footballer. If he can progress in that department at the local level his chances of playing at a higher level when he plays his next afl game improve, rather than simply playing him at the higher level and expecting development to just happen. Tucker is another who I think benefits from playing a solid block of four or five WAFL games where if he can be put in one position and focus on being involved in the game for longer periods. Playing him every week, but positioning him all over the ground certainly isn't enhancing his development.

We are playing a heap of kids and exposing them to the pace of afl football. Letting a handful of players build confidence and developing them for a few extra games at WAFl by mixing in veterans for a couple of games certainly doesnt hurt our overall player development. There is plenty of evidence it actually helps some players.

But for every Elliot Yeo there are legitimately 10's of examples like Brayshaws, Hunter Clarks, Ed Richards, Rayner, Giro, Banfield, Fritsch, T. McCartin, Naughton, Stephensen etc. They don't need time in the two's because they are lacking development they can only receive there, they need time because they simply aren't good enough to play in the firsts. Some players like Yeo will drastically improve and become good enough but for the vast, vast majority (particularly if they aren't tall who I think rightly get given more time) they simply disappear.

Teams like Melbourne, Carlton etc weren't/aren't bad because they played too much youth they're bad because either the experienced talent wasn't there around them or the youth that was selected weren't actually that good. DP/Ballas over Duman/Crowden aren't going to be changing any results so why not give the guys who'll be here next year more experience over the guys who won't.

 

[Taylor]

..and Bailey Fritsch turns 22 in December. That helped

 

[wayToGo_]

The main change I'd like to see this week is some moving the magnets around so our players are playing more in their best suited positions. Mundy back into the middle with Fyfe out. Plus SHill and Cerra into the midfield - Brad Hill and Duman in should help move the ball out of d50 enough to enable this. Walters as a permanent small forward until he settles back in to the team imo - he's trying to do too much lately - needs to trust the kids a bit more.

B Kersten ~ Hamling ~ Ryan

HB Wilson ~ Pearce ~ Duman

C Langdon ~ SHill ~ BHill

R Darcy ~ Mundy ~ Neale

HF Banfield ~ Cox ~ Tucker

F Matera ~ Apeness ~ Walters

I/C Brayshaw ~ Cerra ~ Giro ~ Sheridan

Six defenders in the back line for once. Nyhuis or Hughes in if Pearce doesn't get up. Senior experience in the guts to help Cerra/Brayshaw/Banfield rotating through. Sheridan and Giro rotating through the wings and half forward line.

It's a bit weak across that half forward line but hopefully we can add Bennell sometime soon. When Fyfe comes back, Mundy can also go forward again. And perhaps McCarthy will be pushing for selection by then as well, so too Grey and Switkowski.

Suspect in reality Ballantyne will stay in again though