Realistically, where should we be?

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
Feb 23, 2008
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At the absolute very least we should've beaten Richmond in Round 4 and GWS last week. Forward line selections cost us both of those games. That would put us at 10-8 and odds on to play finals. There are definitely a few other games you could argue we should've won as well.

But ladder position isn't the big deal to me. For me there are two ways you can have a 'successful' season; win a flag, or develop your list in a manner that's going to help you win flags in the future. Only one team gets to do the former on any given year, but we've well and truly failed at the latter. The games we've given Ryder + Motlop + Sutcliffe + Sam Gray + Broadbent and the games we haven't given Marshall + Frampton + Ladhams + Garner + Atley + Drew all stand as evidence of that. As does the fact that we're still wasting time on a gameplan that's never gonna win us a premiership.
 

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Enviable Tradition

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We are perforing in line, if not slightly in front of peoples expectations pre season. iirc, most on here had us finishing 12th. Most on here agreed there would be ups and downs.

The weekly results have been in line with my expectation so on face value i'm not too concerned by our ladder position. What has been concerning though is the way in which those results have come.

- Losing to an injury ravaged Richmond at home should not have happened
- Losing to Brisbane in the manner we did in Brisbane was unacceptable
- Losing to Brisbane at home in the manner we did was unacceptable
- Losing to GWS at home in the manner we did was unacceptable

With my pre season prediction of 12th with some up ands and downs I fully expected that we would be playing Marshall most weeks, that guys like Drew and Atley would get significant time, that someone like Ladhams or Frampton would get significant time, that Sutcliffe would remain an SANFL only player, that Garner would work his way into the side and stay there, some more development into someone like Farrell.
Fair play, we've actually dropped under performing senior players this year and that is something that would not have happened in the past. I doubt anyone would have expected guys like Dixon, Rockliff, Wines, Westhoff, Ryder, Motlop to all have played SANFL this year.

So overall I think we are on par with what I was expecting.
I agree we are on par with what I was expecting.

What I wasn't expecting was for the 3 young guns, Burton and Lycett to be playing so well.

Had I expected how well they would have covered our losses I would have expected more.

The problem with our season as you so rightly point out though is not our win-loss it is the nature of the win-losses and the selections and game plans that preceded them.
 

bomberclifford

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The problem with our season as you so rightly point out though is not our win-loss it is the nature of the win-losses and the selections and game plans that preceded them.
The problem is that the season could have so easily exceeded our expectations by just picking a functioning forward line in 2 or 3 games.

Ken doesn't like high expectations though. He might have the bar raised to get his paycheck.
 

PAFC_1870

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The first Brisbane loss I put down to selection, however that loss doesn't look as bad given his they are travelling. Even the Dogs game doesn't hurt as much reflectively.

Richmond we had some serious outs too. Selections didn't help...
 

Magus

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We should be travelling better and the only reason we're not is self sabotage.

Selections and lack of structure has killed us all year and it's just a continuation on from previous seasons.

How many times do we have to win all the stats and have more i50 entries before something is done about the forward line and those playing in it?
 

RussellEbertHandball

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We have 16 players on our list who have played 100+ games.

Barring lots of injuries I expected us to most weeks be paying 12 or 13 of them, with only Mckenzie and Sutcliffe not getting regular games. I expected us to play Sam Mayes more than Cam Sutcliffe.

So I never saw this as a go backwards development year because Ken was under pressure to play finals. He was going to play the big name well paid players

Westhoff, Boak, Ebert, Gray and Ryder the 200 gamers I expected were going to play a lot of games.

Watts, Motlop, Rockliff are 150 gamers on big contracts I expected them to play most games.

Hartlett and Broadbent the other 150 gamers if they got over their injuries, I expected them to play most games.

I expected Dixon to play earlier than he did and he Wines and Jonas are all 130 gamers.

So there is 13 blokes I expected to play a lot of games, but injuries have meant those in bold have played a lot less and Broadie took longer to get in and then had a few weeks off with mental health issues.

I expected us to play Lycett, Burton and Mayes, that's why we went and got them. I expected DBJ, Clurey, Howard, Houston, SPP and Sam Gray to play a lot of games. That gets us to 22 players.

I didn't expect Amon to go as well as what he has.

So that doesn't leave many spots for the 3 new first round draftees, Drew, Atley, Bonner, Lienert, Frampton, Ladhams, Marshall, Farrell, Johnson and Garner.

Take out the 3 first rounders and Bonner, none of those young players have played more than 40% of games, despite lots of injuries, especially that 6 or 7 weeks after rd 6.
 
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Capital Power

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Top top top

And then stopping
Yep, we reached the top, made history then struggled for direction as the song doesn't specify what to do next, unless there's some hitherto undiscovered second verse with more girt.

FWIW I thought we'd finish 12th on 8-10 wins, but naturally after a couple of good wins at the beginning of the season and some bright play from the youngsters, began to harbour hope of finals. It seems we really are where we should be, and we are playing in a manner to protect that.
 

PortWTF

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After the departure of Wingard and Polec I didn't give us much chance of finals. But once the shock of that wore off I went back to my usual thought that we would struggle to make finals just because of Hinkleyball. I was hopeful that new assistants would temper that. And with Dixon injured for most of the year I was hopeful that we would get games into Frampton and Marshall.

Before the Collingwood game you have stats-worshippers like David King saying this will be the best Friday night game of the year. What he conveniently omits from his analysis though is how we get our goals and the complete inefficiency of our scoring. Take out any statistic to do with scoring and we look top 4 material. The total refusal to play any sort of recognised forward structure and have any regular players other than Robbie Gray possess forward craft is our downfall, and it doesn't seem to matter what assistant coach is in charge of the forward line makes any difference, year after year.

And if by some miracle Hinkley survives to next year, I will expect we will again be in the 9th to 11th range.
 

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David Puddy

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Considering that our best has been good enough to beat West Coast and Geelong - I expect us to have done significantly better than what we have.

I see no reason why Brisbane should sit 3rd on the ladder and then a massive gap down to us in 10th. Their team is no better on paper. The only thing separating us - good coaching.

Also, we should have pumped 10-15 games into all of Drew, Atley, Garner, Ladhams, Marshall, Frampton.

Should never have drafted and given games to Sutcliffe.

Should never have called Ryder back up once he was dropped.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Also, we should have pumped 10-15 games into all of Drew, Atley, Garner, Ladhams, Marshall, Frampton.
We should have if it was a development year - but its not - its a play finals and save Ken Hinkley, as well as try and get some success before Boak, Gray, Ebert, Westhoff and Ryder depart the club. Playing Sutcliffe is proof its not a development year.
 

David Puddy

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We should have if it was a development year - but its not - its a play finals and save Ken Hinkley, as well as try and get some success before Boak, Gray, Ebert, Westhoff and Ryder depart the club. Playing Sutcliffe is proof its not a development year.
Why do the two have to be separate?

Geelong are going to challenge for the flag and have played guys like Miers, Clark, Ratugolea, Atkins, Henry, O' Connor for basically the whole season.
 

Alberton Proud

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We should have if it was a development year - but its not - its a play finals and save Ken Hinkley, as well as try and get some success before Boak, Gray, Ebert, Westhoff and Ryder depart the club. Playing Sutcliffe is proof its not a development year.
Kenny seems to be having a big bet each way and moulding his dialogue to suit
 

Vagabond0

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Depends on how you define "we".

If by "we", you mean just the playing list, then somewhere between 4-9, given our depth in midfield and defensively. Personally thought we'd struggle up forward but at least hoped we'd persistent with a structure that could grow into something.

If by "we" you include coaching staff then I had us 8-13 because we've seen enough over the last 5 seasons to know we'd lose games despite dominating the possession and clearly being a 5 goal better side because:
1. we have no clue how to play forward of centre and don't back in any player or game style
2. the players have backed Kenny for years for no reward and carry the baggage of it.

So we're sitting exactly where I'd thought we'd be with no clear sign of any of our on field problems from the past 5 years being rectified.
 

Andre

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Instead we're rinsing players that are going nowhere (Westhoff, Motlop, Ryder, Broadbent) for all they're worth. The club has put the idea of making finals ahead of building for a premiership.
If Ken wants to try and make finals to save his career the club could have it's hands tied. He'd argue if he was overruled on selections (if a new oversight), that the club took away his chance to trigger his contract clause, so he's entitled to be paid out regardless. The club so clusterfu**ed that one.:mad:
 

Chewy316

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My expectation was in the 10-11 range getting 9-10 wins. That being said, on paper I believed we had a 13-14 win list which would be hampered by a poor gameplan (Hinkley).

Based on how we've played this year, I haven't wavered in that belief. Get rid of Hinkley, and with a proper off-season of developing our young players, along with a gameplan that is conducive to attacking footy (as we have seen maybe 3-4 times all year), we will no doubt make the finals and push for a top 4 spot in 2020.

If we continue making the game a bog, a stoppage fest, slowing the game down etc, this team is going to get no where. All that a slow game plan does is magnifies turnovers, and we are experts in that space.
 

RossFC

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To people saying we are doing better than we expected because we are 10th, there is still time to drop to 12th-14th which would be in line with most peoples end of season predictions.
 

Prison bar Pete

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If all went like clockwork, on the 18 year cycle (since last premiership) we should have finished about 7th this year. The aberration of 2013-14, & a certain gentleman of questionable influence, have put paid to that. Realistically 10th-12th under this guy, & potentially 5th-8th under a new guy.
 

Pappagallo

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To people saying we are doing better than we expected because we are 10th, there is still time to drop to 12th-14th which would be in line with most peoples end of season predictions.
Also can I just point out that when people predicted a 10th-14th finish they weren’t f@&king happy about it. These predictions are rooted in the well-supported belief that the current administration is incompetent, so their fruition is not validation that we’re on the right path.

“Things are going as expected” but we expected them to be f@&ked.
 

Robbie4PM

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We are heading right down the St Kilda path. Starting to blood kids who are looking promising, we will probably just miss the 8 next year again with the expectation that with our kids maturing we should be pushing for the 8. We will lose Ryder, Westy, Boak, Robbie, Rocky, Ebert off the top of my head and end up finishing bottom 4.
 

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