Realistically, where should we be?

FallingLiefs

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I feel like this is somewhat of a Hinkley defence thread by title which I don’t agree with. Realistically we shouldn’t have lost Wingard/Polec and therefore should be higher. It’s only been due to the multiple years of irrelevantness in the comp where my expectations were dragged down.

Realistically where should we be at is hard to answer, it’s always in a fluid state. what’s not hard is since 2014 the years following have been a categoric and dismal failure. We should have achieved much more and probably still been more competitive than we are now. I think that’s a better answer to the question.
 

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RossFC

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Also can I just point out that when people predicted a 10th-14th finish they weren’t f@&king happy about it. These predictions are rooted in the well-supported belief that the current administration is incompetent, so their fruition is not validation that we’re on the right path.

“Things are going as expected” but we expected them to be f@&ked.
Hinkley is allergic to the top 4 and now top 8. Look at all these factors that turned a possible top 4 season to a non finalist last year.

Hawthorn game with a million 50m pens + Howard choking cost us the game.

Freo loss should have been a crap game where you pull through.

Wines choked in the Showdown,

Ebert/Jonas choked vs West Coast, Hinkley going slow with ball movement when we were 5-6 goals up was a poor decision.

Essendon game wouldn’t have been a dead rubber and we may have been up for it.

Some would say it’s a lot of bad luck, I say it’s the footy gods saying Port with Hinkley is not meant to be.
 
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MrChow

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We r about right for a young list, and a new game plan.

I imagine there will be another big list change at end of season again.

Id be happy to trade anyone over 25, for the right price. I’d be fine with losing a combo of Ryder, Dixon, Wines, Rockliff, Jonas, Hartlett, Boak, Watts, Motlop, S Gray, Westhoff, Ebert, Sutcliffe.

I see some value in keeping a few of them for SANFL and to help develop youngsters, keep a spine, etc.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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We r about right for a young list, and a new game plan.
What new game plan? We are still bombing it inside 50 just like 2013-14. We got rid of the go slow out of defence 2018 game style, but that is the only change, hardly radical or so new to change things that the players can't handle it.

Our list might be young, but outside the 3 first rounders we have played nearly every game, and the 5 weeks we were racked with injuries between Rds 7 and 12 ( and we had 2W and 3L), around 17 of other 19 players in the 22 each week, played those other dozen games have been in the AFL system since between 2006 and 2015.

Our older well paid players have let us down.
 
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raptalia

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I have given up trying to figure where we should be, realistically or otherwise. We are probably where most of us expected to be at the start of the season. What is it the man said? 'You get what you deserve'.

We have not been helped by injury but we have not helped ourselves either. Ken's game plan has not changed one iota despite a bevy of new assistants and some significant rule changes and we still cannot win the close ones despite the bulls**t from our Co Captains.

What is more I do not see any significant changes in ladder position next year as we are likely to be stuck with the same haphazard delivery into our forward line and the same low skill levels that have plagued us for at least five seasons under Hinkley. Our inability to take a mark and our poor conversion rate is nothing short of a national disgrace. If find myself asking why professional footballers on at least $400K per annum cannot kick the bloody ball straight from thirty metres out?

I wish I could be more optimistic but the thread is about being realistic and it is a pretty depressing outlook from where I sit. Realistically we are not going to move up the ladder until we make some changes at the top of our Football Department. I think most of our supporters realise this but those running the show don't and therein lies the rub.
 

PowerBaz

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We should be mentally stronger, under Hinkley we have become mentally weak - 'someone has to lose'
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Why do the two have to be separate?

Geelong are going to challenge for the flag and have played guys like Miers, Clark, Ratugolea, Atkins, Henry, O' Connor for basically the whole season.
WE don't have their list. Plus for Geelong its not a development year - just a few young players are getting a go. 14 other experienced players have played 13 or more games (like Ratugolea) and Touhy has been injured for 8 games and only played 11.

They have a midfield of multiple All Oz of Dangerfield, Ablett and Selwood, get a mature ager in Kelly who will probably win the brownlow and be all Oz this year, his second and Mitch Duncan would be in most clubs top 3 mids becomes # 5. Plus they play structured tall forward and back line players. They are weak in the ruck, but get away with it because of their mid field depth.

The players you listed aren't that much different to who we have played in 2019. It's their top end talent that has performed week in week out that means they can carry young kids who are developing and contributing. Our top end talent has been inconsistent, injured and a few have been dropped.

Miers 18 games drafted 2017 our equivalent is Butters 17 games
Clark 17 games drafted 2018 our equivalent is Duursma 17 games
Ratugolea 13,.. drafted 2016 our equivalent is Marshall 6 games
Atkins 17 games drafted 2018 but was born in 1995 ie equivalent of Karl Amon or DBJ born 1995
Henry 16 games drafted 2016 our equivalent is Bonner 15 games

O' Connor 18 games drafted 2016, Irish off the rookie list, 22 year old, our equivalent is Houston 2015 rookie listed and born same year 1997. Or Lienert who is a couple of years older

So there isn't much difference if you look at age and experience of the 6 young players you named and finding an equivalent 6 young players for Port. The glaring difference is Ratugolea over Marshall, but that wouldn't surprise anyone because we don't seem to worry about our young KPF's bulking up and Ken doesn't play them much anyway.
 

Interstater

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This week we are playing 12 players with under 100 games, Essendon are playing 16.
We are playing 7 players with 150+ games, Essendon have 3.

Ranked 1st in Inside 50s Per Game
Ranked 1st in Clearances Per Game
Ranked 2nd in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 2nd in
Kicks Per Game
Ranked 3rd in Tackles Per Game
Ranked 4th in Hitouts Per Game

Ranked 2nd in Clangers Per Game
Ranked 13th in Marks Per Game
Ranked 12th in Goal Assists Per Game

Look at those stats, ignore that it is Port and ask yourself, where should the team be that has the most I50's and clearances per game.
A side that is also high in disposal, tackles and hitouts.
They should be Top 4.

However, we get constantly smashed by turnover goals and we can't take a grab up forward to save ourselves.
And the truly weird stat, how can we be so low for goal assists when we get the ball up there so often.

If you were looking at this as another side, your conclusion would be simple.
Get a new forward coach.

But then when you think our forward coach was our defensive coach, and that is our focus up forward, it starts to make sense.
If you consider that we compensate defensively for our clangers by loading up our defense, it makes even more sense.

We need to hit targets more often.

How do you fix that?
Reduce in-game fatigue?
Improve skills?
Improve structures?
Go back to basics?

I honestly don't know and I'm frustrated because those in charge have been absolutely unsuccessful in working it out either.

Its not the list, a bad list wouldn't have the most clearances and I50's.
Its bad coaching. Whether its fatigue, structure, skills I'm not sure but all stem from coaching.

We should be Top 4, we are where we deserve to be.

Ranked 2nd in Kicks Per Game, Ranked 13th in Marks Per Game - how does that happen?
 
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RussellEbertHandball

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We should be Top 4, we are where we deserve to be.

Ranked 2nd in Kicks Per Game, Ranked 13th in Marks Per Game - how does that happen.
By Top 4 I will agree with you as good enough to be 4th on the ladder - but 4th don't win flags and haven't made a GF since 2006.

We aren't good enough to be Top 2, and top 2 win most flags unless the 3rd side is exceptional or there are exceptional circumstances like Richmond playing 3 travelling teams at their home ground in 2017 GF, ie Geelong, then GWS, then Adelaide.
 

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Interstater

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You posted this bit after I started my previous reply. How?? by bombing it to the bloody s**t house too often, that's how.
What I would like to do is watch the first 5 minutes of each round for the year.
I suspect what happens is we give away a few free kicks early in a lot of games and then we flick the defensive trigger and throw one or two extra back.
We then sit in this mode and win lots of the ball in our back half and have no-one up forward to kick to or when we do its a bomb to an outnumber.

Do champion data release team based heatmaps?
I'd like to compare them club by club and see just how often we stack our backline vs other clubs.

How do we develop the confidence to go 1 on 1 more?

I'm not sure if its just bias but we do seem to give away a lot of frees in that first 5 minutes.
 

ozph1870

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Our expectations at the start of the year were low, not based on the players or the squad, but based on history with the coaches and our shocking style of footy, deep down we all knew exactly what would happen.
 

Hammer#8

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Breaking down the profile of other team lists

Good (Lists with some elite talent/solid B grade contributors)
Richmond
West Coast
Geelong
Collingwood
Bombers
Giants

Mix of rebuilding and good
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs

Too old/slow/cooked, but can knock off good teams from time to time and be stubborn to bottom out
Crows
Hawthorn

Mix of rebuilding and poor
Melbourne
Saints
North
Freo

Rebuilding
Swans
Carlton
North
Suns

I think we're realistically in the same camp as Brisbane/WB.

We should be finishing somewhere between 6th-9th, but its the job of the coaches to break that ceiling and exceed everyone's expectations and even over-achieve.

Brisbane sit where they are for that very reason.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Breaking down the profile of other team lists

Good (Lists with some elite talent/solid B grade contributors)
Richmond
West Coast
Geelong
Collingwood
Bombers
Giants

Mix of rebuilding and good
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs

Too old/slow/cooked, but can knock off good teams from time to time and be stubborn to bottom out
Crows
Hawthorn

Mix of rebuilding and poor
Melbourne
Saints
North
Freo

Rebuilding
Swans
Carlton
North
Suns

I think we're realistically in the same camp as Brisbane/WB.

We should be finishing somewhere between 6th-9th, but its the job of the coaches to break that ceiling and exceed everyone's expectations and even over-achieve.

Brisbane sit where they are for that very reason.
According to this AFL article, the U/23's component of our list, not the U/23's who regularly play each week is close between the other 2 you put us in, with Brisbane deemed to have the best U/23's, Carlton second, Port 3rd and Bulldogs 4th.

The big difference for Port is we have 16 players who have played 100+ games and 5 over 200 and all except for Ebo have been B&F winners, Westhoff, Boak, Ebert, Robbie and Ryder. We should be getting more out of our 100 gamers - not all 16 should play, but injuries and recovering from long term injuries (Watts, Dixon, Wines, Hartlett, Broadbent, Ebert,) and poor form and some getting dropped to the SANFL (Ryder, Motlop, Rockliff, Jonas, Westhoff, Robbie first half of year) has meant that we have yo-yoed as Boak has been the only week in week out big contributed of those 13 who should be in the team every week. [Mayes, McKenzie and Sutcliff are the other 3 100 gamers].

We don't have a big chunk of 25-28 year olds who are A graders but the ones who have payed less than 100 games- Lycett, Clurey Sam Gray and Mayes and Trengove are probably contributing more than the 100 gamers in that age bracket Jonas, Motlop, Watts, McKenzie and Sutcliffe.

The 21-24 years old have contributed this year, Amon, DBJ, Howard, Burton, Houston, Bonner and SPP, but a lot haven't been given a go.
 

HinkleysHeroes

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With the talent we have had from 2014 onwards we should have been firmly entrenched in the 8 each year. This, giving many on our list repeated finals experience making them a tougher team. Like Geelong and Hawks.

If anyone thinks we should realistically have achieved less than this then you are part of the accepting mass for our repeated mediocrity.

We should be a minimum of 5th at the moment with this very week top 8.
 

Rendaw

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Realistically? I should be booking my refundable accommodation in Melbourne for the GF.
 

Magus

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Top 4!

With a half decent coach and a half decent attitude we would be Top4 comfortably.
Agreed. Contrary to what old mate says, the competition isn't that tough, just a lot of teams on the same mediocre level. The standard of football is not outstanding in 2019. We've had plenty of time now to be building into a strong team with clear direction but instead we're still tinkering with what the forward line is supposed to look like and deciding on what game style we think we'd like to be playing.
 

Hammer#8

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Who of our bigger name players that we've brought in have really shined though?

The Dixon/Ryder/Rockliff types couldn't help us to achieve any sort of success, but the Whites/Monfries types had more gears to shift to and were certainly less heralded/established players.

The big names we brought in for no added success proves the whole football program has failed, and that we've burnt through this list.
 

*PAF

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We should be trying to win the premiership or building towards winning one.

ATM it feels like we are trying to just make the finals and fu** the future. We'll worry about trying to just make the finals then when the time comes.
That is the bit that has turned this season into a meh.
 

TeeKray

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We should be trying to win the premiership or building towards winning one.

ATM it feels like we are trying to just make the finals and fu** the future. We'll worry about trying to just make the finals then when the time comes.
That is the bit that has turned this season into a meh.
The trouble with hardly ever making the finals over a very extended period of time (3 times in 12 years) is that making finals in and of itself becomes so elusive and so difficult to achieve that it becomes like the new goal. We make the finals as often as teams like Geelong, Sydney, WCE, Hawthorn, Collingwood, etc, make grand finals. Finals are our new Everest.
 

*PAF

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The trouble with hardly ever making the finals over a very extended period of time (3 times in 12 years) is that making finals in and of itself becomes so elusive and so difficult to achieve that it becomes like the new goal. We make the finals as often as teams like Geelong, Sydney, WCE, Hawthorn, Collingwood, etc, make grand finals. Finals are our new Everest.
Yeah. However anyone that thinks making finals is a good enough goal should not be at Port. Staff, coach, player, supporter or any other capacity that may exist.
 

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