Realistically, where should we be?

(Log in to remove this ad.)

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
55,842
74,051
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
Decided to compare us and Brisbane. In the predictions thread in my ladder where I put games won by position, I ended up putting Port with 13 and Brisbane with 10. I thought they could win 12 but didn't have the guts to put that down as I didn't know who I would kick out of the 8 or 9th spot.

Now our win loss looks a bit poor against top 4 sides because we lost both games against Brisbane who now are in the top 4. I know top 4 is up for debate but Geelong will finish first or second, Richmond have won their last 5 and WCE have won 4 of their last 5.

Brisbane at the moment have the advantage of not having played Geelong yet, play them at the Gabba next week, and Richmond at the MCG in the final round. We have easier games, North away and Freo at home last 2 games.

So the end result could be 15 wins vs 12 wins. The big difference will probably be that we didn't split the games between both Brisbane and Richmond, the Rd 3 and Rd 4 games both we should have won.

Brisbane also have done better against the middle class sides, both winning at home and away games. We just can't handle the expectation of winning at home it seems.

We are 5-6 at home inc both showdowns. Brisbane are 9-1 at home. Away from home we are better 5-4, Brisbane are 6-4.

724474
 

tribey

5 Wins In-A-Row Certificate Recipients '13/'14/'18
Mar 9, 2003
57,927
132,749
Queen St & Peter Rd
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
NUFC, YES.
Given seasons are situationally fluid and with North [a] and Freo [h] to come, 12-10 and an away Elimination Final.

Anything less is a monumental failure that cannot, under any circumstance, be met with “well at the start of the year you had us finishing 12th, so”.
 

tribey

5 Wins In-A-Row Certificate Recipients '13/'14/'18
Mar 9, 2003
57,927
132,749
Queen St & Peter Rd
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
NUFC, YES.
Brisbane also have done better against the middle class sides, both winning at home and away games. We just can't handle the expectation of winning at home it seems.
To labour the point, Brisbane have insisted on going into games with a conventional forward line that allows them to convert the opportunities presented them by Neale and co.

If Fagan refused to play, say Hipwood and McInerney against North as we did Dixon and Marshall against GWS, they lose that one in a similar fashion to us.
 

*PAF

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 17, 2005
21,891
9,964
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
When you look at the ladder and then look at the games we have coming up I seriously think we have missed a top 4 opportunity by selecting safe sides.
Had we gone more traditional up front we wouldn't have done any worse and may have done better.

Play forwards up front and play the midfielders and backs where they do best.
 

Janus

Dominus Ex Machina
Sep 9, 2007
19,366
48,067
Portland, Oregon
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls
We are 9th for points for and 6th for points against.

7th/8th is exactly where we should be with the injuries we’ve had. Teams like Collingwood and GWS are discovering how hard it is with key players out.

What our ceiling is will be determined by how we approach the last two rounds. If we keep North and Fremantle to a low score while piling on the goals, then we can do some real damage in finals.
 

Us against the rest

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 26, 2012
11,571
12,894
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
We are 9th for points for and 6th for points against.

7th/8th is exactly where we should be with the injuries we’ve had. Teams like Collingwood and GWS are discovering how hard it is with key players out.

What our ceiling is will be determined by how we approach the last two rounds. If we keep North and Fremantle to a low score while piling on the goals, then we can do some real damage in finals.
Agreed but i think North will be breathing fire after their shocker, it wont be easy.
 

Portology

Cheap, fast, safe: pick two, or juggle three.
Sep 27, 2007
8,391
7,855
Sydney
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Manchester United, Barcelona
Ironic thread title for the club that gave us "you get what you deserve".

Realistically, "we" the non-existent mythical averaged out contributor on and off field, deserve to be exactly where we are.

Tripping over ourselves a few times and getting mixed up in a squeeze for a finals spot amidst a group of less talented, less "high ceilinged" contenders.

Very high ceiling, low consistency... the talented youth, the positive (Amon, Boak, DBJ) and negative (Jonas, Wines, Dixon) surprise packets among more senior players and the serial* significant injuries can't hide us utterly throwing away some games at selection and game planning.

*I mean serial as in kinda "one after the other" as opposed to "all at once" per Collingwood, Richmond, GWS injury lists this year.
 

Malibu#27

Premium Platinum
Feb 25, 2002
13,659
8,186
Barossa Valley
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Port Magpies, Redbacks
Realistically, when you saw the club trade out some top 10 players with currency (Wingard/Polec) it was pretty clear there was a reset taking place, hence expectations were set accordingly.

Early on, we had some significant injury issues which knocked us about a bit.

Right now we are roughly where I expected us to be, although I didn't expect us to be in this position on the back of young players coming into the team. I expected the likes of Mayes were going to fill the void left by Polec and Wingard ... so on that front we are in front.

That being said, I was disappointed in the result of 5/6 games:
1. Brisbane in Brisbane .... we were well and truely in a match winning position in the last ... looking back now though, Brisbane are a bloody good side up there and theres no shame in that result
2. Freo over there .... not so much for the result, as Freo can be quite tough in WA, but the last quarter fadeout was disappointing
3. Richmond at home - while Richmond were severely undermanned, its often forgotten we had a fair bit of quality out as well..... that being said, we had the game there for our taking (despite getting reemed by the umpires all night) and didn't hold on
4. Hawthorn in Tassie - yep they play the ground well, but we are clearly a better side
5. Bulldogs - we never turned up, in hindsight, the Dogs were just getting onto a run, and sometimes its a matter of when you play a side - play them 6 weeks earlier and its put down your glasses we win


The positive of this year, is being where we are with who we have had out at times gives us a bit of trade currency ... as we hae a bit of depth, for me the test though is to ensure that the players we trade when given a choice between two similar players will be the 'older guys'
 

PJ Power

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 13, 2003
18,950
21,419
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Realistically, when you saw the club trade out some top 10 players with currency (Wingard/Polec) it was pretty clear there was a reset taking place, hence expectations were set accordingly.

Early on, we had some significant injury issues which knocked us about a bit.

Right now we are roughly where I expected us to be, although I didn't expect us to be in this position on the back of young players coming into the team. I expected the likes of Mayes were going to fill the void left by Polec and Wingard ... so on that front we are in front.

That being said, I was disappointed in the result of 5/6 games:
1. Brisbane in Brisbane .... we were well and truely in a match winning position in the last ... looking back now though, Brisbane are a bloody good side up there and theres no shame in that result
2. Freo over there .... not so much for the result, as Freo can be quite tough in WA, but the last quarter fadeout was disappointing
3. Richmond at home - while Richmond were severely undermanned, its often forgotten we had a fair bit of quality out as well..... that being said, we had the game there for our taking (despite getting reemed by the umpires all night) and didn't hold on
4. Hawthorn in Tassie - yep they play the ground well, but we are clearly a better side
5. Bulldogs - we never turned up, in hindsight, the Dogs were just getting onto a run, and sometimes its a matter of when you play a side - play them 6 weeks earlier and its put down your glasses we win


The positive of this year, is being where we are with who we have had out at times gives us a bit of trade currency ... as we hae a bit of depth, for me the test though is to ensure that the players we trade when given a choice between two similar players will be the 'older guys'
Good post. You can add the 1 point loss to GWS too which may ultimately prove to cost us either a spot in the 8 or a home EF.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Nemisis

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 27, 2012
5,026
5,737
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
We will make the eight quite possibly win a final (Collingwood). Its more than i expected.
This year i have tried to quell my negativity against Hinkley as i can see positive change happening. It has taken far too long but the game plan has improved, selection has improved, on field discipline is ok and the development of young players have been outstanding this year.
I don't want KH long term but nor do I think he has been a disaster this year.
 

Papa G

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 13, 2006
21,625
38,000
The Bitter End
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
If we make the finals this is the team I'd be running with (assumes Watts and Ebert aren't playing this year).

Hartlett Clurey Westhoff
Burton Jonas DBJ
Amon Wines Duursma
Houston Dixon Rozee
Motlop Marshall Ryder

Foll:
Lycett
Boak
R Gray

Int
Powell Pepper
Rockliff
Broadbent
Sam Gray

Injuries or Form Replacements
Ruck: Ladhams
Tall Back: Dougal
Tall Foward: Frampton
Small Back: Bonner, Garner
Small Forward: Butters, Farrell
Midfield: Drew, Atley,
Jack of All Trades Master of None: Sutcliffe

Most contentious would be the inclusion of Motlop and Sam Gray, but this team feels to me that it has the right mix of youth, experience, talls and smalls. I pretty much like our first replacement on every line too.
 

Schulzenfest

TheBrownDog
Feb 23, 2008
50,605
124,423
SA
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Toronto Raptors
If we make the finals this is the team I'd be running with (assumes Watts and Ebert aren't playing this year).

Hartlett Clurey Westhoff
Burton Jonas DBJ
Amon Wines Duursma
Houston Dixon Rozee
Motlop Marshall Ryder

Foll:
Lycett
Boak
R Gray

Int
Powell Pepper
Rockliff
Broadbent
Sam Gray

Injuries or Form Replacements
Ruck: Ladhams
Tall Back: Dougal
Tall Foward: Frampton
Small Back: Bonner, Garner
Small Forward: Butters, Farrell
Midfield: Drew, Atley,
Jack of All Trades Master of None: Sutcliffe

Most contentious would be the inclusion of Motlop and Sam Gray, but this team feels to me that it has the right mix of youth, experience, talls and smalls. I pretty much like our first replacement on every line too.
Agree with most of this, but Butters over Sam Gray IMO. No bottom 4 teams for Gray to beat up on in the finals. And I want to see Butters get a taste for the real stuff, I reckon that cocky little f***er will thrive on it.

I'd also probably find a way to get Howard in there, possibly at Broadbent's expense. Although that would depend somewhat on matchups. If we were playing a Mason Cox-less Collingwood for example we probably don't need him back there, but against Richmond or GWS we probably do.
 

MrPlow

All Australian
Oct 25, 2015
659
2,080
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
We are 9th for points for and 6th for points against.

7th/8th is exactly where we should be with the injuries we’ve had. Teams like Collingwood and GWS are discovering how hard it is with key players out.

What our ceiling is will be determined by how we approach the last two rounds. If we keep North and Fremantle to a low score while piling on the goals, then we can do some real damage in finals.
Collingwood and GWS have basically half their best 22 out at the same time

Sure we’ve had injuries here and there but it’s really not the same. To blame injuries is a cop out
 

raptalia

Premium Platinum
Mar 1, 2014
6,303
8,276
People's Republic of Onkaparinga
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
If the Western Bulldogs beat GWS and Hawthorn thrash Gold Coast we could sit in 11th spot tomorrow night. Even if the Bulldogs do not get up but Hawthorn have a big win, which is likely, we will probably be 10th.

The drop from sitting in eighth spot with two games to go and our destiny in our own hands to eleventh spot and relying on others losing is some fall from grace. It is another dot point in the Hinkley list of disasters. It probably ranks just below last year's 11-4 to oblivion effort in the fail scale.

Making the finals, which is still possible provided we win next week, will come down to how much we win by next week. As Hawthorn play West Coast at Optus on Saturday it will probably be a three horse race between Port, the Crows and Bulldogs on Sunday. The closer the Crows v Bulldogs encounter the better.

Hinkley did get one thing right as we will know the Crows v Bulldog result before we start and what we need to do. Then again we knew what we needed to do in the last game but could not do it.
 

PA88

Premiership Player
Apr 6, 2014
3,988
4,456
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Realistically where should we be?

It depends on how you look at it. I think it was Macca19 that stated that BF posters had us finishing somewhere around 12th(?) this year and so alluded that we should be satisfied that we've surpassed this expectation. Well, the poll and vote is misleading. There should be more than this one poll, one that asks 'where should our list profile have us finish in 2019?' and one that asks 'where should we finish with Ken as coach in 2019?' and another that asks 'where should we be finishing in 2019 given a better coach in his 7th year?'

This year if my memory serves me correctly, I voted that we'd finish about 12th and that was predominantly based on Ken as the coach, Jonas and Wines as captains, a horrid 2018 reserves development, and losing Wingard/Polec, but considering a year under the belts of Watts, Rockcliff, and Motlop. I didn't vote on where we should be after 7 years under the same senior coach.

Realistically we are where we should be because Ken is inept but when you think that a coach is at the helm of a club for 7 years then you would assume the coach is extraordinarily good and thus realistically you should be in the top two or three.

Because we are Port Adelaide, or trying to be, then either we should be a flag contender in the coach's 7th year or be in a lull year because we've won a flag or two a year prior.
 

Portology

Cheap, fast, safe: pick two, or juggle three.
Sep 27, 2007
8,391
7,855
Sydney
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Manchester United, Barcelona
We are 9th for points for and 6th for points against.

7th/8th is exactly where we should be with the injuries we’ve had. Teams like Collingwood and GWS are discovering how hard it is with key players out.

What our ceiling is will be determined by how we approach the last two rounds. If we keep North and Fremantle to a low score while piling on the goals, then we can do some real damage in finals.
Now this, folks, is how you do “sliding doors”.


On iPhone using recycled electrons, via BigFooty.com mobile app
 

agmsy

Senior List
Sep 28, 2014
267
796
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
If the aim is to develop a competitive football program with a senior side capable of challenging for premierships, then, based on last night's performance, we should probably be in the NEAFL.
 

Top Bottom