Opinion Reality check and regress to the mean or the loss that makes the season?

[catempire]

Seeing a lot of posters taking a strong position on the basis of the Port loss. So here’s your chance to get a view on the record: what will this loss mean for season 2019?

Perhaps it will get us back on track, seeing us finish top and a successful finals campaign.

Or will it be the start of a downward trend, losing a bunch of games in the back half of the season and a loss or more in the finals in similar style to the Port one?

 

[Spazz Cat]

Seeing a lot of posters taking a strong position on the basis of the Port loss. So here’s your chance to get a view on the record: what will this loss mean for season 2019?

Perhaps it will get us back on track, seeing us finish top and a successful finals campaign.

Or will it be the start of a downward trend, losing a bunch of games in the back half of the season and a loss or more in the finals in similar style to the Port one?

Hope it's the first one. Gotta admit I'm a bit disappointed.
Was hoping it was another box to tick of hoodoos overcome. Give the team confidence when the next week off comes.
Hopefully it means nothing though and just a reality check.

 

[catempire]

FredLeDeux ever the rationalist.

 

[FredLeDeux]

FredLeDeux ever the rationalist.

There is a slight lack of nuance in those 2 questions, a type of excluded middle.
We can play and have played better than we did last night.
But those who think we are the best team in the comp, that we were really a "true 11-1 team", simply haven't been watching the overall quality of our play, and if they are expecting a premiership, they are extremely likely to be disappointed.

 

[catempire]

There is a slight lack of nuance in those 2 questions, a type of excluded middle.
We can play and have played better than we did last night.
But those who think we are the best team in the comp, that we were really a "true 11-1 team", simply haven't been watching the overall quality of our play, and if they are expecting a premiership, they are extremely likely to be disappointed.

As I said, rationalist. These things you say are statistical or logical truths but not much fun or interesting for the basis of a thread!

 

[Mad_Hatter]

If this was a loss in round 15 and not post bye AGAIN, I dare say we'd be receiving it differently.
Realty check best case, worst case it's a pattern of performance and a large red flag.
I think the truth sits somewhere in the middle.

 

[darrenmorgan]

There is a slight lack of nuance in those 2 questions, a type of excluded middle.
We can play and have played better than we did last night.
But those who think we are the best team in the comp, that we were really a "true 11-1 team", simply haven't been watching the overall quality of our play, and if they are expecting a premiership, they are extremely likely to be disappointed.

Wouldn't the only determining factor of a 11-1 team be that they are 11-1?

 

[Boxhead_31]

Don't think we will see us play that badly across the board again all year.
Some players who might have got a little ahead of themselves got the reality check they needed last night which, hopefully, will set them in good stead for the rest

 

[GeelongFTW]

We do our best work with 3-4 losses anyway.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Wouldn't the only determining factor of a 11-1 team be that they are 11-1?

No.

 

[Catsace]

I'm firmly in Camp A here. Geelong this season is not quite the all-conquering dominating side with the assurance of many years playing together like the peak '07-11 era sides. Looking at the last few seasons every Premier has had some very ordinary efforts, the Dogs in '16 lost seven home and away games including a poor away loss in the last home and away round. The Tigers in '17 lost badly to St.Kilda and after the loss to the Cats at KP in Rd 18, they were a relatively unconvincing 11-7 on the ladder before exploding in September. The Eagles last year came unstuck a few occasions but put it together in the last month of course.

Geelong's two defeats this season have both been at the hands of a side that had an overwhelming amount of possessions compared to us, with our midfield smashed on both occasions. Mumford and Lycett obviously wrested control in the rucks, and Tim Kelly has probably had his two quietest games in both those defeats. Port were sort of under the pump after a fade-out last week and they were hot for a big home town effort last night. Somewhat annoyingly the three players in (Wines, Dixon and Hartlett) all played well despite being first up, and their pressure overcame the Cats who just seemed to be on the back foot all night.

However unlike in the last few years, at least Geelong's defeats have been few (two so far) and also quite narrow. It has to be a bit heartening that we've been quite poor in those two games yet were still a smoky of a chance in each game late in the piece. The defence held Port to 66 points (9.12) so despite the midfield monstering the score conceded was quite low, even if Port missed a few. Geelong is not far enough ahead of the pack in skill and system to always overcome an opposition side who is hot on effort and high in pressure, and of course on their home deck. Many sides could be hot one day and a side like Geelong to be off a little for the teams to be evenly matched. If we reverse the situation, do fans think Geelong is a 10-goal side better than the Weegles? We did smash them at KP, but clearly they were not really on their game that match, and away from Perth they were in an uncomfortable surrounding.

Geelong's least successful venue for winning has tended to be in South Australia as well, our record in that state is i think the poorest of any venue in the last 25 years or so, which was only turned around when Geelong was a truly great side a decade ago.As long as Geelong's coaching is able to dissect the ways we lost like last night and against the Giants, and one of those is the ruck....we might need to employ Smith when playing a side with a quality ruckman, Lycett after all was the Premiership ruckman against Grundy last year...it's one weakness we've had for many years since Ottens retired. Stanley has generally been good, but needs to face the fact that he needs to be better than last night. 36 less uncontested possessions and at least a dozen clearances fewer than Port was always a recipe for a loss. Learn from this, take the 11-2 and 1st position so far, and get back on the horse.

 

[Hamingja]

Makes no difference to the home and away season.

To win the flag we would most likely need to win off a bye TWICE and against much better teams than Port.

Not going to believe until I see it now unfortunately. How can you.

 

[kickazz]

They looked like I feel on the first day of work after a break. Happy enough to be back but easing my way into things.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

What had me confident earlier in the season was our ability to apply pressure all over the ground, particularly up forward. We were all on the same page and our intensity at the contest all over the ground was first class.

This has dropped away over the last 5 weeks because we've got 3 or 4 players not playing their part and others have tired.

Also, we have an extremely weak starting centre square midfield. When Kelly gets tagged and struggles, Dangerfield is left to do it all by himself and he doesn't use the ball well going forward. Selwood is struggling, Parfitt is a year or two away from becoming a high quality player and Guthrie isn't hard enough at the contest.

We need to change things up and I think we need to bring Constable back into the team. We've simply stopped working hard all over the ground.

This loss wasn't a reality check, our regression has been obvious for a month or so now. We've just been lucky enough to play well late and get over the line in games.

We are in a position where we'll win enough games to avoid travelling interstate in finals and the likelihood of getting interstate sides in Victoria is advantageous enough to give us a chance to pinch a GF berth with glaring weaknesses.

 

[Turbocat]

if they are expecting a premiership, they are extremely likely to be disappointed.

I think Fred's last sentence while logical would seem to me be a normal state of mind for most supporters each year ..from that pov ..id ask just how much delusion is there in the current win loss. Is it sustainable. Did Port expose weaknesses that they alone can exploit or for that matter ..how much was them and how much was us? Have we built from a soild ground or not.. Have we have a Castle of Cards?

The form of new arrivals has played a part early on.. So has the club training ..hard preseason. so has having a fit list .. so has certain players playing their best level...

Tactically , we seemed to have moved from a high set of numbers for inside 50s and poor conversion in previous years to a low set of numbers and good to very good conversion.. but is that symptomatic of what our future could be. Is it realistic to expect us to have a high conversion from a small number of chances. Probably yes if they are from the goal square ..but as they will not be its probably to be expect that it will drop off a bit

I certainly do not think we can do any good playing like last night against Port. Much was attributed to us continuing to strive.. this only reminds me of the speech in the Eastwood film Joesy Wales where the old Chief ..talked about ..endeavor to persevere as they slowly bit by bit got persevered into oblivion. Far more apt to me is Yoda.. do or dont do ..there is no try. We simply cant get beaten like that in the middle and expect to win..no backline could sustain a defence against that .. no forwardline could be expected to kick a score to win with it.

CE has this thought provoking sliding doors thread.. and I feel either door is quite possible atm. Either door sets up this site as a hotbed for rhetoric over the off season. Id say from what we have done till last night a GF spot should be expected.. and once there.. im not for the idea of making a GF for the pardade and listening to Meatloaf .. a GF is not anything other than winning. Its probably better to not make final than to lose the GF poorly. However considering our previous few years.. we really must win a couple of finals or this season will just go down as another long tease that ends in disappointment.

 

[fpm84]

Just a reminder that every side is statistically unlikely to win the flag right now.

Right now I’d rank the odds as:

Geelong - 20% chance of winning flag
Collingwood - 20%
West Coast - 20%
GWS - 15%
Anyone else - 25%

Nobody should be expecting a flag this season regardless of who they follow. They are extremely hard to win.

 

[Ratcat]

It's a long season with finals, last thing we need is to imagine the same players will continue to perform as they started.
The match committee need to continually evolve the team especially in this back half to maintain a best 22.

 

[Down at K Park]

Hope it's the first one. Gotta admit I'm a bit disappointed.
Was hoping it was another box to tick of hoodoos overcome. Give the team confidence when the next week off comes.
Hopefully it means nothing though and just a reality check.

Well said. I share your thoughts. I believed this was going to be the time to break the hoodoo, which would have been a good omen.

 

[cynical]

Few too many cracks are starting to show.

Tuohy's disposal has been average and with Clark moved up the ground the same ole backline that cant kick and has no run and carry will start to get exposed more especially when finals come around (exposed as in they cant get the ball out of defence)
Selwood is pretty cooked. We need Constable back in the side he is the big body who can hit up Kelly with good handballs.
Forward line heavily reliant on Hawkins. Miers has been great, Rohan was good for a few months but cant expect these guys to deliver in finals.

We probably only lose another 2 games but I worry that when teams go full 100% pressure then we really struggle.

 

[Falconx]

We really lack someone to give us some drive out of defence. A player like Brodie Smith or Zac Williams would have so much value towards us. Everyone in our side looks so much better when we move fast and with confidence. I know you can't always do that, but we saw only about 5mins of that quick, skilful movement all game.

 

[Catters 070911]

I'm firmly in Camp A here. Geelong this season is not quite the all-conquering dominating side with the assurance of many years playing together like the peak '07-11 era sides. Looking at the last few seasons every Premier has had some very ordinary efforts, the Dogs in '16 lost seven home and away games including a poor away loss in the last home and away round. The Tigers in '17 lost badly to St.Kilda and after the loss to the Cats at KP in Rd 18, they were a relatively unconvincing 11-7 on the ladder before exploding in September. The Eagles last year came unstuck a few occasions but put it together in the last month of course.

Geelong's two defeats this season have both been at the hands of a side that had an overwhelming amount of possessions compared to us, with our midfield smashed on both occasions. Mumford and Lycett obviously wrested control in the rucks, and Tim Kelly has probably had his two quietest games in both those defeats. Port were sort of under the pump after a fade-out last week and they were hot for a big home town effort last night. Somewhat annoyingly the three players in (Wines, Dixon and Hartlett) all played well despite being first up, and their pressure overcame the Cats who just seemed to be on the back foot all night.

However unlike in the last few years, at least Geelong's defeats have been few (two so far) and also quite narrow. It has to be a bit heartening that we've been quite poor in those two games yet were still a smoky of a chance in each game late in the piece. The defence held Port to 66 points (9.12) so despite the midfield monstering the score conceded was quite low, even if Port missed a few. Geelong is not far enough ahead of the pack in skill and system to always overcome an opposition side who is hot on effort and high in pressure, and of course on their home deck. Many sides could be hot one day and a side like Geelong to be off a little for the teams to be evenly matched. If we reverse the situation, do fans think Geelong is a 10-goal side better than the Weegles? We did smash them at KP, but clearly they were not really on their game that match, and away from Perth they were in an uncomfortable surrounding.

Geelong's least successful venue for winning has tended to be in South Australia as well, our record in that state is i think the poorest of any venue in the last 25 years or so, which was only turned around when Geelong was a truly great side a decade ago.As long as Geelong's coaching is able to dissect the ways we lost like last night and against the Giants, and one of those is the ruck....we might need to employ Smith when playing a side with a quality ruckman, Lycett after all was the Premiership ruckman against Grundy last year...it's one weakness we've had for many years since Ottens retired. Stanley has generally been good, but needs to face the fact that he needs to be better than last night. 36 less uncontested possessions and at least a dozen clearances fewer than Port was always a recipe for a loss. Learn from this, take the 11-2 and 1st position so far, and get back on the horse.

You mentioned Mumford and Lycett when talking about our losses.

Our previous loss to that was to Melbourne in last year's EF.

Notice that, in all three games, we lost to a team with a quality ruckman.

One of our problems is that we haven't had a quality ruckman since Brad Ottens. Part of our success in '07-11 was the presence of our midfield being gifted the ball in hitouts from Brad Ottens, and surprisingly, Mark Blake (who was useless in most areas, but his one massive tick was that he won the hitouts more often than not). We even had Mumford at one stage.

But at the moment, we have Rhys Stanley (who, while he isn't terrible, would be better as a second ruck), Zac Smith who can't seem to get a game, Estava who is young and better used as a KPF, and Ryan Abbott who barely gets a look in. Also, we have Darcy Fort, who isn't ready to carry the head ruck role yet.

I know the ruck is one area, but we have a quality midfield, and a quality ruckman can hit it to these guys who can send it to the centre. We had Danger, Selwood and Ablett in the midfield in the last few years and yet have struggled to win clearances, yet we had Bartel, Selwood and Ablett in '07-11, and yet we won centre clearances. The difference? Rucks getting their hand on the ball.

I think this off-season, especially if we don't win finals, I think we need to chase an experienced ruckman, such as a Todd Goldstein or a Paddy Ryder (as both are rumored to be available next year). A player of this type will give our midfielders more chance of getting the ball, and we can then develop a younger ruckman under him to groom to take over.

 

[Landgraft]

There is a slight lack of nuance in those 2 questions, a type of excluded middle.
We can play and have played better than we did last night.
But those who think we are the best team in the comp, that we were really a "true 11-1 team", simply haven't been watching the overall quality of our play, and if they are expecting a premiership, they are extremely likely to be disappointed.

I think on balance we've been the best team this year. Not because we've been amazing so much as the field is bog average.

There isn't a single great team in it, though. Us included.

 

[Max Milburn]

There is a slight lack of nuance in those 2 questions, a type of excluded middle.
We can play and have played better than we did last night.
But those who think we are the best team in the comp, that we were really a "true 11-1 team", simply haven't been watching the overall quality of our play, and if they are expecting a premiership, they are extremely likely to be disappointed.

I expect one every year. And most years I'm disappointed.

 

[thecatattack]

It's one loss in the toughest part of the season to win games.

Anyone writing off our season now can throw their membership in the bin now because you don't deserve any success we may see.

 

[Catters 070911]

They looked like I feel on the first day of work after a break. Happy enough to be back but easing my way into things.

I actually heard a theory as to why we may struggle off byes, and it was from none other than "Bomber" Thompson.

It was after Geelong just won the 2007 and 2008 PFs, but struggled to win them and fell over the line, Bomber was asked as to his theory as to why.

He said that Geelong are a "momentum" team, and once they get going, they don't want to stop. He said that he would prefer that we had no byes, as we can then keep up our momentum, but when a bye comes, we stop, and "cool down" and then it takes time to "warm up the engine again" for a team who is frenetic and fast-paced.

This could explain why we lose off byes, and lose first week of finals. It sounds like Geelong need to play every week, and while some clubs need the break, it seems disruptive to us, and it means that we have "prime ourselves up again". It is like how some people are workaholics, and need to keep going, while others are better off a break.

I think the main difference is that we had a better side in '07-11 than we have in recent years, so we were still good enough to win in those years, though not convincingly, whereas in the last few years, that effort have turned to losses rather than unconvincing wins.

If Bomber noticed this, it has been happening long before Chris Scott got there. I just think it is the frenetic game we play which relies on precision play that buckles when we are not allowed to play "our way" every week.