Opinion Reality check and regress to the mean or the loss that makes the season?

[Willo_]

Good post.........key phrase is 'as long as we learn'

Yeah and unfortunately we won't know much until September. We just need to hope we learn and prepare. We've made huge strides the first few months of the season so there is no reason we can't, but nothing is guaranteed

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

um, you don't even know who we are going to play, or where.

I know.
Which makes it all the more frustrating I can predict it.

Like I did last year in June.

Play Nice - Geelong - a real danger to miss finals in 2018.

Every time a club loses a game their seasons over? I dont know how this season ends. The Cats will have better games though.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Max Milburn]

I know.
Which makes it all the more frustrating I can predict it.

Like I did last year in June.

Play Nice - Geelong - a real danger to miss finals in 2018.

Every time a club loses a game their seasons over? I dont know how this season ends. The Cats will have better games though.

www.bigfooty.com

You sir, are truly a genius.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

You sir, are truly a genius.

No need to call me "sir," it feels a bit formal.
The genius comment is spot on though.

 

[Seeds]

You mentioned Mumford and Lycett when talking about our losses.

Our previous loss to that was to Melbourne in last year's EF.

Notice that, in all three games, we lost to a team with a quality ruckman.

One of our problems is that we haven't had a quality ruckman since Brad Ottens. Part of our success in '07-11 was the presence of our midfield being gifted the ball in hitouts from Brad Ottens, and surprisingly, Mark Blake (who was useless in most areas, but his one massive tick was that he won the hitouts more often than not). We even had Mumford at one stage.

But at the moment, we have Rhys Stanley (who, while he isn't terrible, would be better as a second ruck), Zac Smith who can't seem to get a game, Estava who is young and better used as a KPF, and Ryan Abbott who barely gets a look in. Also, we have Darcy Fort, who isn't ready to carry the head ruck role yet.

I know the ruck is one area, but we have a quality midfield, and a quality ruckman can hit it to these guys who can send it to the centre. We had Danger, Selwood and Ablett in the midfield in the last few years and yet have struggled to win clearances, yet we had Bartel, Selwood and Ablett in '07-11, and yet we won centre clearances. The difference? Rucks getting their hand on the ball.

I think this off-season, especially if we don't win finals, I think we need to chase an experienced ruckman, such as a Todd Goldstein or a Paddy Ryder (as both are rumored to be available next year). A player of this type will give our midfielders more chance of getting the ball, and we can then develop a younger ruckman under him to groom to take over.

The coaches do not respect the art of ruck work. It has been our major downfall since late 2013. It has cost us multiple grand finals appearances.

 

[Tackle_happy]

I had this one penned in as a loss (only other was Brisbane up there) ... but it was still disappointing at how it happened.

If we had lost but fought hard then I would have given it a pass, but we didn't (save for a couple of players). To lose by only 9 points too ... and play that badly (and for Port to say it is the catalyst for their season ... lol).

 

[Max Milburn]

The coaches do not respect the art of ruck work. It has been our major downfall since late 2013. It has cost us multiple grand finals appearances.

Three sentences. Each a gross exaggeration.

 

[Hello Kitty]

It's simple - it's the heavy training load

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The coaches do not respect the art of ruck work. It has been our major downfall since late 2013. It has cost us multiple grand finals appearances.

Its not about the coaches its about what quality of rucks the list managers get on the list. You cant use what you dont have.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Its not about the coaches its about what quality of rucks the list managers get on the list. You cant use what you dont have.

Coach directs the the list management team, surely. If the order came through to aggressively pursue quality ruck options, I'm sure that Wells and his team would have tried. I don't think it's the case that the list manager has free reign over list composition decisions and the coach just has to deal with it when he turns up for pre-season, at least I really hope that isn't the case.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Coach directs the the list management team, surely. If the order came through to aggressively pursue quality ruck options, I'm sure that Wells and his team would have tried. I don't think it's the case that the list manager has free reign over list composition decisions and the coach just has to deal with it when he turns up for pre-season, at least I really hope that isn't the case.

The list manager will ask the coach what types of players he needs to fit his gameplan in what positions then the list manager chases those types at trade and draft. The coach has little to no role in the second bit. For all you know the coach has asked for a certain type of ruck and the list manager has tried and hasnt been able to close a deal with that player.

 

[Catsace]

One thing that really irks me a bit is how some ruckmen who were out and out duds in earlier incarnations have become by their late 20's very good ruckmen, and how our version, Zac Smith hasn't been able to step up quite like that to this point.

Witts for example, he was a very ordinary conveyance at Collingwood, but now at the Loins he's playing very good footy and doing well. Bellchambers is another who has improved during his career, Tom Hickey too was a klutz who could barely get out of his own way and is doing well now as the Eagles ruckman in lieu until they get Nic Nat back.

Another to do well in roles are blokes like Nankervis who has flourished at the Tigers. Stanley has been generally quite good, but he's not a particularly tall bloke at 199 cm and he can be outmuscled against a bloke who may be better at the craft. Zac Smith is a mature age bloke (28) who is 206 cm and has the size to really contest one would expect. I know he did a knee when at the Suns, but at his age and size he should be about at the peak of his powers. Even Mumford has come back after some time in retirement and has been very effective for the Giants, although perhaps with their Roll-Royce midfield most rucks would look good there.

It would be great if Smith can really take the bit between the teeth and force his way into the side and deliver some ruck domination for Geelong. Stanley i feel is capable of playing patches of great footy but gets a bit injured, as someone said he's been in and out now for about 5 weeks and the lack of continuity may be causing him to struggle. Abbott and Fort are probably 4-5/10 types, good ordinary players at best, but nowhere near the class of the Gawn, Grundy et al types. Esava is young and raw and also a relatively short (197 cm) person to play in the ruck too. Smith is the one with the size and experience who can make a difference, i hope he can just find it in himself this year to do that, he may be a vital part of the second half of the season.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Geelong's least successful venue for winning has tended to be in South Australia as well, our record in that state is i think the poorest of any venue in the last 25 years or so, which was only turned around when Geelong was a truly great side a decade ago.As long as Geelong's coaching is able to dissect the ways we lost like last night and against the Giants, and one of those is the ruck....we might need to employ Smith when playing a side with a quality ruckman, Lycett after all was the Premiership ruckman against Grundy last year...it's one weakness we've had for many years since Ottens retired. Stanley has generally been good, but needs to face the fact that he needs to be better than last night. 36 less uncontested possessions and at least a dozen clearances fewer than Port was always a recipe for a loss. Learn from this, take the 11-2 and 1st position so far, and get back on the horse.

Since moving to the Adelaide Oval in 2014 we are now 3-2 v Port Adelaide there and 1-2 v Adelaide, there was also the no result following Phil Walsh's death.

 

[Willo_]

One thing that really irks me a bit is how some ruckmen who were out and out duds in earlier incarnations have become by their late 20's very good ruckmen, and how our version, Zac Smith hasn't been able to step up quite like that to this point.

Witts for example, he was a very ordinary conveyance at Collingwood, but now at the Loins he's playing very good footy and doing well. Bellchambers is another who has improved during his career, Tom Hickey too was a klutz who could barely get out of his own way and is doing well now as the Eagles ruckman in lieu until they get Nic Nat back.

Another to do well in roles are blokes like Nankervis who has flourished at the Tigers. Stanley has been generally quite good, but he's not a particularly tall bloke at 199 cm and he can be outmuscled against a bloke who may be better at the craft. Zac Smith is a mature age bloke (28) who is 206 cm and has the size to really contest one would expect. I know he did a knee when at the Suns, but at his age and size he should be about at the peak of his powers. Even Mumford has come back after some time in retirement and has been very effective for the Giants, although perhaps with their Roll-Royce midfield most rucks would look good there.

It would be great if Smith can really take the bit between the teeth and force his way into the side and deliver some ruck domination for Geelong. Stanley i feel is capable of playing patches of great footy but gets a bit injured, as someone said he's been in and out now for about 5 weeks and the lack of continuity may be causing him to struggle. Abbott and Fort are probably 4-5/10 types, good ordinary players at best, but nowhere near the class of the Gawn, Grundy et al types. Esava is young and raw and also a relatively short (197 cm) person to play in the ruck too. Smith is the one with the size and experience who can make a difference, i hope he can just find it in himself this year to do that, he may be a vital part of the second half of the season.

Maybe Otto is just no good as a ruck coach?
Or maybe he is and the decision not to have him full time really has hurt us?

I do really wish we had gotten Dean Cox in.. Good outside voice for the coaches and able to look after our ruckman.

 

[Nickoo]

It's a long season with finals, last thing we need is to imagine the same players will continue to perform as they started.
The match committee need to continually evolve the team especially in this back half to maintain a best 22.

That’s one of the best posts I’ve read. Absolutely the coaches need to continually evolve this team. New strategies new players in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Vdubs]

Good post

I think the problem for Geelong ( and what alot of supporters cant grasp ) is up to this point in the season the Cats have over performed ( given the talent they have got )

At the start of the year you could get $30 plus in betting markets for Geel to win the flag - the only ones who gave them a chance to win the premiership - were a few one eyed ratbags

So Geel have clocked up the wins - well what is the alternative to that - do what N Melb Ess and Melbourne do and do regurlarly - you keep losing games and keep missing out year in year out !!!

Come the finals - Geelong are on a hiding to nothing - they are an average team - they will be under tremendous pressure - alot will be saying they will go out in straight sets blah blah

However if the Cats win this years premiership - considering the players they have got this year - then i think it will be easily Geelongs best premiership ever .

Best post I've read on our situation.

 

[Vdubs]

Coach directs the the list management team, surely. If the order came through to aggressively pursue quality ruck options, I'm sure that Wells and his team would have tried. I don't think it's the case that the list manager has free reign over list composition decisions and the coach just has to deal with it when he turns up for pre-season, at least I really hope that isn't the case.

Many teams want quality rucks.
Our order of selection has always compromised our ability to pick the best.
And we have only lost 2 games this year with Stanley playing most games- seems we have done ok.
We have Smith, Fort, Abbott as backups, and Sav is emerging.
As I have maintained all year, the ruck situation is not our big issue until we get smashed by a Mummy or a Lycett. We have overachieved perhaps with what we actually have on our list, and the problem with that is the overemphasis on potential flag this year. Let's play out the season and see where we finish.
If we make a GF, it will be a massive achievement. (I hope the additions to our list will make that possible- good signs to now, but 9 more games, we could easily go 4-5, or 5-4 and that would still be a great step up on last year.)
Winning would be miraculous.

 

[Hamingja]

Its not about the coaches its about what quality of rucks the list managers get on the list. You cant use what you dont have.

I think pretty clearly developing rucks isnt a priority for Scott. I don't think we have used a national draft pick on one from the u-18s since he has been coach.

 

[allrighty]

Maybe Otto is just no good as a ruck coach?
Or maybe he is and the decision not to have him full time really has hurt us?

I do really wish we had gotten Dean Cox in.. Good outside voice for the coaches and able to look after our ruckman.

And a bloody great player

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think pretty clearly developing rucks isnt a priority for Scott. I don't think we have used a national draft pick on one from the u-18s since he has been coach.

Most clubs have moved away from drafting rucks and try to trade them in now since the afl changed the rules-its a league wide trend.

That said I called Grundy a massive blunder in 2012 on draft night.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Most clubs have moved away from drafting rucks and try to trade them in now since the afl changed the rules-its a league wide trend.

That said I called Grundy a massive blunder in 2012 on draft night.

Not living in the past - but how would you rate Grundy to another Collingwood ruckman in the past being Peter Moore -

Moore was athletic a brilliant one grab overhead mark - just a sensational player - could also play key forward . Where as Grundy - does he actually take one grab overhead marks ?

If you rated Peter Moore at say 100 out of 100 - then id rate Grundy at say 65 . In fact in comparism to Peter Moore - Grundy is a scrubber

 

[Vdubs]

Not living in the past - but how would you rate Grundy to another Collingwood ruckman in the past being Peter Moore -

Moore was athletic a brilliant one grab overhead mark - just a sensational player - could also play key forward . Where as Grundy - does he actually take one grab overhead marks ?

If you rated Peter Moore at say 100 out of 100 - then id rate Grundy at say 65 . In fact in comparism to Peter Moore - Grundy is a scrubber

If Moore was 100, how would you have rated Len Thompson?

 

[Goggin Our Best]

If Moore was 100, how would you have rated Len Thompson?

They were both a mile better than Grundy

 

[Vdubs]

They were both a mile better than Grundy

Yet today Grundy is state of the art.

 

[romeohwho]

Despite the negativity about the post-bye loss, Geelong is certainly a better team this year than it was in 2018 and I feel quite optimistic about the rest of the season. At least 4 teams in the hunt. Bring it on.
Not fussed about the loss-good time to remind one of not getting ahead of ourselves, not getting complacent. Port did their homework and it worked off the bye. Won’t work next time.
They don’t call Geelong Sleepy Hollow for nothing it would appear.