Opinion Reality check and regress to the mean or the loss that makes the season?

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

The job of the team from this point on is to get a top 2 finish, but to expect us to win every game is truly a folly. To write the team off after a single loss is also a folly. There is a trend in this side that if they're not mentally switched on at the start of a game the opposition can get the jump on them. The problem coming back from the bye is purely mental. The guys weren't switched on at all, Port was, add to that several important players having the worst game of the year then it was always going to be a serious struggle. But that doesn't mean that's how they'll play for the rest of the season. The Cats will learn from that, and I suspect next week will be keen to show the world it was merely an aberration and beat the much fancied Adelaide at Kardinia Park. Why do people wait for every opportunity or excuse to put the club down if they have a bad one. These are not robots playing out there, they're human beings who sometimes have off days too.

 

[Catman]

Since moving to the Adelaide Oval in 2014 we are now 3-2 v Port Adelaide there and 1-2 v Adelaide, there was also the no result following Phil Walsh's death.

2-3 v Adelaide.

 

[Baudolino]

I *want* to believe, I really do. And there's no doubt we've improved significantly this year. Hats off to CS and the coaching staff for the changes they have made to get us to this point.

That said, I just don't trust Stanley and our midfield group enough to stand up in three high-pressure finals against high-quality rucks and midfield divisions. That's not to say I'm writing us off entirely - I do think we're one of four teams who can plausibly win it from here - but I will say that I wouldn't have us favorites at the moment. The poll options seem like a bit of a false dichotomy to me as my feelings are somewhere in the middle. If pushed I'd lean slightly to the pessimistic side of things but in percentage terms I'd give us maybe a 20% chance of winning it. I see Collingwood as outright favorite with GWS second and us and West Coast equal third.

 

[Vdubs]

I *want* to believe, I really do. And there's no doubt we've improved significantly this year. Hats off to CS and the coaching staff for the changes they have made to get us to this point.

That said, I just don't trust Stanley and our midfield group enough to stand up in three high-pressure finals against high-quality rucks and midfield divisions. That's not to say I'm writing us off entirely - I do think we're one of four teams who can plausibly win it from here - but I will say that I wouldn't have us favorites at the moment. The poll options seem like a bit of a false dichotomy to me as my feelings are somewhere in the middle. If pushed I'd lean slightly to the pessimistic side of things but in percentage terms I'd give us maybe a 20% chance of winning it. I see Collingwood as outright favorite with GWS second and us and West Coast equal third.

I just want to see us beat Adelaide.
Thinking about one final, let alone 3, is off my radar.

 

[CatRiot]

Larger sample size required....

Exactly what I said in the last round match review... Had a few clowns on here still kicking up a stink over my comment lol

Nothing to worry about yet...

 

[CatRiot]

The competition is too even to wire to wire without a dip in form at some stage. A high pressure, high intensity game is hard to replicate all season in games when the stakes may be lower. So not overly concerned by loss.

I am encouraged because we have got ourselves into a strong position ladder wise and our best attacking football is brilliant.
My concerns are:

• Overreliance on Kelly, who while brilliant has played two terrible games and we have lost them both. He also had a shocker V Melbourne in the final.
• The form of Selwood, who just does not look right and is not reliable enough to play midfield in a knock out final on current form.
• The threat of Grundy, NicNat, Mumford who could all really manhandle Stanley if he does not show up in a final with his best.
• A slight change in preference for pace and skill over contested ball (ie Clark playing wing, Parsons on fringes and Constable on the outer). Which is back to 2018 Scott and not early 2019 Scott.

As Turbo Cat put it, we are in with a chance, like the other top 4 teams, who like us, have issues and strengths as well.

These are good points.
Now, if I was to discuss in response:
1. I think the over-reliance on Kelly is still not a sufficient sample, we have enough class and quality players that can step up if one player is down. Its a 22 player team after all, but he is an important cog.
2. Yes, Selwood is looking a bit off this year. I would be inclined to getting some weeks of rest into him if that would help his situation. He's mainly playing an outside role, so why not put a few games into Fogarty, Parsons, Constable, Scooter in this role. Menegola is back soon, has a big engine, so he might be solution for the now.
3. Ruck, this is an absolute real issue against quality rucks and a somewhat a non-issue against average rucks. Someone mentioned playing Stanley against weaker rucks, and bringing in Smith for the monster rucks. It throws a few things out with team balance and gel, but I can't see a better solution at the moment. Smith when played did improve our clearances and has slightly better hitout numbers.
4. I think Clark stays for pace for now. I know Parson's gets a lot of flack on here, but he actually has one of the better averages for Clearances and Stoppages in our team from limited games this season. He's certainly not a first class player, but he is okay for depth, and I see improvement from him this year.

Just as a side note, the obvious player that's dropped in form is Rohan. I'd be keeping a close eye on him, he was having his best season to date up until 3 games ago. He should have been fresh after the bye, but had poor ball supply on weekend. I'd consider a Kreuger as a good replacement for him if he needs a spell.

I'd be more inclined to only use Buzza if Tomahawk goes down (god forbid), or if SavRat and Fort are failing.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I *want* to believe, I really do. And there's no doubt we've improved significantly this year. Hats off to CS and the coaching staff for the changes they have made to get us to this point.

That said, I just don't trust Stanley and our midfield group enough to stand up in three high-pressure finals against high-quality rucks and midfield divisions. That's not to say I'm writing us off entirely - I do think we're one of four teams who can plausibly win it from here - but I will say that I wouldn't have us favorites at the moment. The poll options seem like a bit of a false dichotomy to me as my feelings are somewhere in the middle. If pushed I'd lean slightly to the pessimistic side of things but in percentage terms I'd give us maybe a 20% chance of winning it. I see Collingwood as outright favorite with GWS second and us and West Coast equal third.

I think you have every right to be skeptical at this point, even though we're 11/2. The Cat's need to bring it when it matters, that's going to be the real test of this team in the end. That's the test EVERY team faces.

The game against Port didn't matter, so we can learn from it then move on. The game meant more to Port than it did to us. I don't think any of us will truly feel confident about this team until the team shows they can win finals (which includes coping with byes).

 

[ATSAM]

I think you have every right to be skeptical at this point, even though we're 11/2. The Cat's need to bring it when it matters, that's going to be the real test of this team in the end. That's the test EVERY team faces.

The game against Port didn't matter, so we can learn from it then move on. The game meant more to Port than it did to us. I don't think any of us will truly feel confident about this team until the team shows they can win finals (which includes coping with byes).

Despite what everyone say on this board and on radio and on TV and in the papers the fact is that we don't win after a bye. And we will have one before the first final. Whatever it is it is now in their heads and has become a voodoo. Scott as the Coach needs to sort it. And if what he says about preparation for last weeks game is correct then it is high time he managed the medical and assistant coaches better.

 

[bulletproof]

I don’t think our losses after the bye are connected to the terrible finals losses. The losses after the bye have been sluggish, sloppy performances.

The finals losses we have been blown away by better teams, not through bad preparation or attitude.

The Sydney one in 2016 maybe we got caught out a little by not being ready, but the others, we were ready just not good enough...

The interesting thing to me about the bye thing is, we always finish home and away seasons strongly, so maybe we do purposely freshen up in mid season and give them a mental break. At 11-1, I have no issue with that.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Despite what everyone say on this board and on radio and on TV and in the papers the fact is that we don't win after a bye.

Well the proof is pretty obvious. but like I said above, I think the problem is mental, not physical. Scotty says they've been tweaking things for a while now to try to get a better outcome after byes. But whatever it is they've done is not working obviously. We could potentially face 2 byes in the finals if we win our first final and go straight to the Prelim. But Like I was saying in the post you quoted, part of proving themselves will be overcoming those situations against the best teams in the comp. If they can do that, then we might just win a flag. If they can't, then they deserve the criticism for wasting another season.

 

[Seeds]

NicNat and Gaff last GF, plus others.
Ok, losing both of them would be horrendous.

Played two finals in perth and then played a grand final side that was missing the same quality off their list as well.

 

[Seeds]

I don’t think our losses after the bye are connected to the terrible finals losses. The losses after the bye have been sluggish, sloppy performances.

The finals losses we have been blown away by better teams, not through bad preparation or attitude.

The Sydney one in 2016 maybe we got caught out a little by not being ready, but the others, we were ready just not good enough...

The interesting thing to me about the bye thing is, we always finish home and away seasons strongly, so maybe we do purposely freshen up in mid season and give them a mental break. At 11-1, I have no issue with that.

Clearly bad preparation and attitude was part of those finals loses. We beat those teams we lost to in thr final in the home and away. We beat melbourne twice last year and we beat richmond the year before.

 

[Pollywaffle]

I *want* to believe, I really do. And there's no doubt we've improved significantly this year. Hats off to CS and the coaching staff for the changes they have made to get us to this point.

That said, I just don't trust Stanley and our midfield group enough to stand up in three high-pressure finals against high-quality rucks and midfield divisions. That's not to say I'm writing us off entirely - I do think we're one of four teams who can plausibly win it from here - but I will say that I wouldn't have us favorites at the moment. The poll options seem like a bit of a false dichotomy to me as my feelings are somewhere in the middle. If pushed I'd lean slightly to the pessimistic side of things but in percentage terms I'd give us maybe a 20% chance of winning it. I see Collingwood as outright favorite with GWS second and us and West Coast equal third.

You are probably right. Also we still seem a little flakey when the screws are turned. I wouldn't say 'soft' but a lot of our players are easily put off their games by the kind of pressure and niggling that comes in high intensity games.
Look forward to more of this tactic in the remainder of the season.
In our earlier incarnations, players such as Chapman, Scarlett, Mooney, Rooke, Milburn, Ling, Bartel stepped up when the heat was on and revelled in the contest. There would have been a few more Port guys less willing on Saturday if we had more players like those running around. I am really struggling beyond Selwood, who is currently hobbled, to think of a player in our team we could truly call 'hard'

 

[Seeds]

You are probably right. Also we still seem a little flakey when the screws are turned. I wouldn't say 'soft' but a lot of our players are easily put off their games by the kind of pressure and niggling that comes in high intensity games.
Look forward to more of this tactic in the remainder of the season.
In our earlier incarnations, players such as Chapman, Scarlett, Mooney, Rooke, Milburn, Ling, Bartel stepped up when the heat was on and revelled in the contest. There would have been a few more Port guys less willing on Saturday if we had more players like those running around. I am really struggling beyond Selwood, who is currently hobbled, to think of a player in our team we could truly call 'hard'

Stewart

 

[BUSTER29]

You are probably right. Also we still seem a little flakey when the screws are turned. I wouldn't say 'soft' but a lot of our players are easily put off their games by the kind of pressure and niggling that comes in high intensity games.
Look forward to more of this tactic in the remainder of the season.
In our earlier incarnations, players such as Chapman, Scarlett, Mooney, Rooke, Milburn, Ling, Bartel stepped up when the heat was on and revelled in the contest. There would have been a few more Port guys less willing on Saturday if we had more players like those running around. I am really struggling beyond Selwood, who is currently hobbled, to think of a player in our team we could truly call 'hard'

Gaz has started throwing some reasonable elbows and forearms this year....

 

[CatRiot]

This is some good stats... Which gives me enough confidence not to worry yet.

Seriously, people being disappointed this year need a hard reevaluation of their thinking.

Stats Files: The AFL's kings of momentum revealed

Who's had the most runs of goals this year? Plus, the stats that will have Dogs fans shaking their heads, and the three Demons who stood up against Freo

www.afl.com.au

 

[Pollywaffle]

Stewart

As good as he is, still primarily a ball player. Not really known for making players earn their kicks. Not a guy who makes you nervous for a square up when you can't see what's coming.

 

[Pollywaffle]

Gaz has started throwing some reasonable elbows and forearms this year....

Yep. A problem when Gaz becomes our 'tough guy'..

 

[sauron256]

If a disappointing H&A win means you're pretenders, then no one is going to win the flag this year.

This time last year the Tigers were guaranteed to win the flag.

There's so much water to go under the bridge this season, I don't think you can say that this loss means much at all. We lost to Port on the eve of the 2007 finals season after all (and at home! imagine this board if we did that this year).

The next few weeks will show if it's a one-off or we have deeper problems.

 

[CatRiot]

If a disappointing H&A win means you're pretenders, then no one is going to win the flag this year.

This time last year the Tigers were guaranteed to win the flag.

There's so much water to go under the bridge this season, I don't think you can say that this loss means much at all. We lost to Port on the eve of the 2007 finals season after all (and at home! imagine this board if we did that this year).

The next few weeks will show if it's a one-off or we have deeper problems.

Yep. And even if we lose up to another 3 more games, even against weak* opposition for remainder of the year then I'm still not overly concerned.
I see two main risks, post-bye form, and when we play against top tier rucks... That's about it.

*Ps. I think the AFL is pretty even as a competition, so you only need to be off 5 or 10% and can get done against most teams if they bring intensity.

 

[Seeds]

As good as he is, still primarily a ball player. Not really known for making players earn their kicks. Not a guy who makes you nervous for a square up when you can't see what's coming.

He hits packs as hard as any of the other players you have mentioned. Makes opponents earn it. More so then Bartel or Ling or chapman in fact.

 

[Strange Cat]

What will be will be it’s largely out of our hands

Might as well just enjoy the wins as they come and not get worked up over this imo

 

[Vdubs]

You are probably right. Also we still seem a little flakey when the screws are turned. I wouldn't say 'soft' but a lot of our players are easily put off their games by the kind of pressure and niggling that comes in high intensity games.
Look forward to more of this tactic in the remainder of the season.
In our earlier incarnations, players such as Chapman, Scarlett, Mooney, Rooke, Milburn, Ling, Bartel stepped up when the heat was on and revelled in the contest. There would have been a few more Port guys less willing on Saturday if we had more players like those running around. I am really struggling beyond Selwood, who is currently hobbled, to think of a player in our team we could truly call 'hard'

Danger. Apart from being easily our best player, he is hard at every contest, irrepressible, and so taken for granted.
We wouLd be rubbish without him in the MF.
Stewart.
Atkins
And the sooner we get him back the better- Bews.

 

[Vdubs]

Well the proof is pretty obvious. but like I said above, I think the problem is mental, not physical. Scotty says they've been tweaking things for a while now to try to get a better outcome after byes. But whatever it is they've done is not working obviously. We could potentially face 2 byes in the finals if we win our first final and go straight to the Prelim. But Like I was saying in the post you quoted, part of proving themselves will be overcoming those situations against the best teams in the comp. If they can do that, then we might just win a flag. If they can't, then they deserve the criticism for wasting another season.

If so, we have already broken the "voodoo". End of story re Bye .

 

[Down at K Park]

Yep. And even if we lose up to another 3 more games, even against weak* opposition for remainder of the year then I'm still not overly concerned.
I see two main risks, post-bye form, and when we play against top tier rucks... That's about it.

We have won games against the 2 best rucks, grundy and gawn.

Danger. Apart from being easily our best player, he is hard at every contest, irrepressible, and so taken for granted.
We wouLd be rubbish without him in the MF.

In terms of attack on the contest, danger is a freaking beast.