Society/Culture Recessions cost lives? Apparently they actually save lives.

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Evolved1

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This article discusses one aspect of recessions.

Only one.

Who believes this is the only aspect that should ever be considered? Name them.
The article doesn't differentiate between lockdowns and typical economic downturns. A hard lockdown involves many facets other than economics including isolation from social networks and common environments used for physical activity such as gyms, beaches, and parks.

Circumstantial evidence, including discussion I've had with someone who works in the health industry, suggests that the physical and mental health of many has suffered in Victoria during the extended lockdown. I'd be very surprised if the lockdown resulted in a net benefit in terms of lives saved or a positive contribution towards our collective mental health.
 

Chief

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Yes that is definitely worth considering.

Right now, nobody is in hard lockdown are they? Where is SA at?
 

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Seeds

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Yes that is definitely worth considering.

Right now, nobody is in hard lockdown are they? Where is SA at?
And right now we arent in recession. The economy has been growing since q3. I.e. The recession started and ended in July.
 

medusala

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The consequences of economic collapses are so complex and messy that trying to extract a single resulting mortality figure is fairly futile.

We are about to see. Its extremely likely that lockdowns in Europe and the USA will kill a substantial amount of people for a whole host of reasons (some related to economics but a huge number related to non treatment of survivable conditions). Hard to separate the two though.
 

Seeds

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We are about to see. Its extremely likely that lockdowns in Europe and the USA will kill a substantial amount of people for a whole host of reasons (some related to economics but a huge number related to non treatment of survivable conditions). Hard to separate the two though.
It didnt kill victorians who did it for 6 months. You are being a tad melodramatic.
 

Chief

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We are about to see. Its extremely likely that lockdowns in Europe and the USA will kill a substantial amount of people for a whole host of reasons (some related to economics but a huge number related to non treatment of survivable conditions). Hard to separate the two though.
Looking at the latest UK numbers, the memes going around about a 200% increase in suicides were just fake. Made up by someone with an agenda, no doubt.

UK suicides in 2020 are up on a low 2019 number, but in line with 2018. Not good, but not a torrent of deaths as spruiked in social media.

Scotland deaths from cancer and heart disease have shifted to home rather than hospital with not many more non-Covid deaths overall.
 

medusala

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It didnt kill victorians who did it for 6 months. You are being a tad melodramatic.

It will kill vast numbers in Europe. There will also be an effect in Victoria. Hardly being melodromatic. Governments have made a conscious decision to value the lives of the very elderly above those with decades to live.


4.4m cancer scans missed after hospitals told to cancel non-essential appointments during lockdown


Hospitals are reporting a "concerning" decline in the number of Victorians seeking treatment for heart attacks and strokes, as well as essential cancer screening, during the state's coronavirus second wave.
 

medusala

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Looking at the latest UK numbers, the memes going around about a 200% increase in suicides were just fake. Made up by someone with an agenda, no doubt.

Dramatic drop in a&e attendances and increase in deaths at home. People are rightfully scared of going to hospital and catchin the virus there.


Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said he was concerned about the number of deaths at home, which amounted to 140 excess deaths a day. “Deaths at home have been at that kind of level, over 100 above average each day, since mid-May, just after the first peak of the pandemic. I still haven’t seen any clear explanation of why this might be happening, and that worries me,” he said

Scotland deaths from cancer and heart disease have shifted to home rather than hospital with not many more non-Covid deaths overall.

a) wouldnt trust any stats out of Scotland
b) Flu deaths in particular have plummeted. Excess deaths now (as opposed to March and April) are not that much above average with non covid deaths decreasing and largely offsetting covid deaths. The covid death number is misleading as everyone taken to hospital now gets a test. So someone dying from a road accident, cancer, heart attack etc will be listed as a covid death and thus it isnt a real reflection. Also heaps of people 15-25% of deaths, catch the virus AFTER being admitted to hospital for something else.
 

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ferball

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Looking at the latest UK numbers, the memes going around about a 200% increase in suicides were just fake. Made up by someone with an agenda, no doubt.

UK suicides in 2020 are up on a low 2019 number, but in line with 2018. Not good, but not a torrent of deaths as spruiked in social media.

Scotland deaths from cancer and heart disease have shifted to home rather than hospital with not many more non-Covid deaths overall.
These figures are interesting.


If you look thru them deaths are down across the board after the first COVID lockdown.
 

Chief

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Seriously, I was on board with the idea of “death from fear of Covid” being a serious issue, same for mental health issues and suicide.

It doesn’t seem to have happened on a big scale that I can see.

I am probably wrong about just about everything I believe, though.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Today a team led by Kadir Atalay from the University of Sydney report on an examination of death records dating back to 1979 that shows that, if anything, Australia’s recessions have saved lives.

Young people, especially young men, are less likely to die in road accidents in recessions. In this recession even more so, because of the way in which lockdowns and working from home have kept cars off the roads.
So it sounds like the headline should read "fewer car trips cause a lot fewer deaths", because that's the real cause, the recession and lockdown is just one way in which that can happen. In keeping with that, I'd like to see big investments being made by the government into ensuring there is a permanently lesser need for car trips, such as a full fibre NBN (thanks LNP, you good-for-nothing bungling pricks) and encouraging more trips to be made by walking, public transport and cycling in lanes segregated from road traffic.

More walking trips could be achieved with mixed use developments, reducing the cost of property so that more people can afford to live near where they work, and increased density so people don't have to drive to supermarkets. Public transport investments are happening in most big cities, but they could be so much greater. Both Sydney and Melbourne are simultaneously throwing billions into more road tunnels that will just increase the number of car trips. I expect that kind of hare-brained nonsense from the LNP, but I'm particularly disappointed in Daniel Andrews, who is undoing all his good work in the public transport sphere with the West Gate Tunnel. His very cozy relationship with Transurban should be scrutinised by a corruption watchdog.
 

Seeds

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It will kill vast numbers in Europe. There will also be an effect in Victoria. Hardly being melodromatic. Governments have made a conscious decision to value the lives of the very elderly above those with decades to live.


4.4m cancer scans missed after hospitals told to cancel non-essential appointments during lockdown


Hospitals are reporting a "concerning" decline in the number of Victorians seeking treatment for heart attacks and strokes, as well as essential cancer screening, during the state's coronavirus second wave.
Um you get even more people will avoid hospitals if theyre overrun with covid patients. Thats the reason some people are avoiding going to the hospital. You are actually making a case for stronger social distancing measures so people with other medical issues dont avoid hospitals. My wife is a covid doctor. The numbers of non covid patients fell dramatically when there were covid cases in the community. Once social distancing and border policies were employed the patient numbers returned to normal.

Ofcourse if hospitals are completely overrun then people with other medical issues often wont even be given a choice to go to hospital because there will be no beds or doctors to treat them.
 

Evolved1

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So it sounds like the headline should read "fewer car trips cause a lot fewer deaths", because that's the real cause, the recession and lockdown is just one way in which that can happen. In keeping with that, I'd like to see big investments being made by the government into ensuring there is a permanently lesser need for car trips, such as a full fibre NBN (thanks LNP, you good-for-nothing bungling pricks) and encouraging more trips to be made by walking, public transport and cycling in lanes segregated from road traffic.

More walking trips could be achieved with mixed use developments, reducing the cost of property so that more people can afford to live near where they work, and increased density so people don't have to drive to supermarkets. Public transport investments are happening in most big cities, but they could be so much greater. Both Sydney and Melbourne are simultaneously throwing billions into more road tunnels that will just increase the number of car trips. I expect that kind of hare-brained nonsense from the LNP, but I'm particularly disappointed in Daniel Andrews, who is undoing all his good work in the public transport sphere with the West Gate Tunnel. His very cozy relationship with Transurban should be scrutinised by a corruption watchdog.
The public transport system in Melbourne is poor unless you live within walking distance of a train station and your destination is within walking distance of a train station. How much would it cost to bring the public transport system to a level of quality and service whereby people prefer it over their cars?

Given the covid situation and fear in the community, public transport is even less appealing to many.

The push towards electric cars and renewable energy is an environmentally friendly alternative that I prefer.
 

Evolved1

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Seriously, I was on board with the idea of “death from fear of Covid” being a serious issue, same for mental health issues and suicide.

It doesn’t seem to have happened on a big scale that I can see.

I am probably wrong about just about everything I believe, though.
I'd be very surprised if mental health issues didn't spike during the Melbourne lockdown.
 

Johnny Bananas

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The public transport system in Melbourne is poor unless you live within walking distance of a train station and your destination is within walking distance of a train station. How much would it cost to bring the public transport system to a level of quality and service whereby people prefer it over their cars?
I don't know, but I'm willing to try. That doesn't mean everywhere needs to be within walking distance of a train station, but it would require a lot more buses to ensure that train-bus connections of good frequency exist so people can get anywhere easily. Maybe even trams, I see no big reason why all trams in Melbourne have to go through the city.

Given the covid situation and fear in the community, public transport is even less appealing to many.
Pandemics are temporary. Congestion will return in time.

The push towards electric cars and renewable energy is an environmentally friendly alternative that I prefer.
Regardless of what they run on, private vehicles create congestion. Building more roads is not a solution to congestion. Any civil engineer worth their salt will tell you that.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Yes. Against the theory that it causes more deaths from things like that.
Which is a great misconception to dispel, but any actual saving of lives actually comes from fewer car trips.

The reasons why there have apparently been fewer suicides would be interesting to explore.
 

Chief

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I'd be very surprised if mental health issues didn't spike during the Melbourne lockdown.
Support services were busier. It's possible the time at home gave people more time for introspection and then to seek help.
 

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