Record breaking season on the cards in 2018

[John Who]

Since the introduction of Gold Coast Suns and GWS, 2012 was the start of an 18-team competition. I've looked at the AFL ladders in all the seasons from 2012 and onwards and here is what I've found interesting after round 23, particularly looking at the teams who just made it into the top 8:

After 23 rounds (playing 22 matches + 1 bye):

2012 Position 8 - North Melbourne 14 W Score Percentage 112.49%

2013 Position 8 - Port Power 12 W Score Percentage 102.45%

2014 Position 8 - Richmond 12 W Score Percentage 105.77%

2015 Position 8 - North Melbourne 13 W Score Percentage 106.45%

2016 Position 8 - North Melbourne 12 W Score Percentage 105.22%

2017 Position 8 - West Coast Eagles 12 W Score Percentage 105.71%

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2012 was not surprising that the top teams won more games and higher score percentages than the other years because the 2 new teams in Gold Coast Suns and GWS were still in their infant stages, and were mostly trounced by the other teams back then. So you could say 2012 was more of an outlier.

Looking at the last 5 years after 23 rounds (2013-2017), the commonality is quite striking:
- 8th ranked teams have wins of 12-13 (mostly 12W)
- 8th ranked teams have score percentages 102.5-106.5%

This year appears to be quite a ground breaking year regarding the make-up of the Final 8. Already the top 8 teams currently have 12 wins or more. The top 10 teams currently (after 19 rounds) have score percentages of 110% or better. With teams still jostling for positions in the top 8, it's very likely after 23 rounds that the 8th ranked team would have 13-14W and a score percentage possibly 115% or better!

Basically, strap yourselves for an unprecedented year with guaranteed record breaking results regarding ladder standings!
Who do you think would be the 8th ranked team? How many wins and score percentage would they need? Or maybe this thread has too much numbers and maths for your brain to handle?

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

I can’t see which records are gonna be broken. 8th will probably be 13 wins with a good percentage. The top 4 will have a relatively low win tally.

We might see the strongest team to miss the finals since the 8 has existed though. I can’t recall any 13 win teams missing the finals in recent years.

 

[Bollox]

This looks like one of those desperate "record breaking" events they seek out for the evening news. "record breaking heat !!!". Only to find they can claim that simply coz it was the hottest day for 11 years out at Gulargambone today.
You can always construct or find a record if you want one.

I really dont see anything interesting nor significant in an 18 team comp with 8 finalists. Especially when the governing body has been going out of their way to artificially create the same team x 18.

 

[John Who]

This looks like one of those desperate "record breaking" events they seek out for the evening news. "record breaking heat !!!". Only to find they can claim that simply coz it was the hottest day for 11 years out at Gulargambone today.
You can always construct or find a record if you want one.

I really dont see anything interesting nor significant in an 18 team comp with 8 finalists. Especially when the governing body has been going out of their way to artificially create the same team x 18.

If you focus on the "wins" column, it really doesn't make very exciting reading, I would agree. The thing that has got my interest was really the score percentages. In the previous 5 years, a score percentage of 106% would have guaranteed a spot in the Finals (just making the 8). This year, it would seem 110% would likely to even miss out!

Even looking at the top 4 current ladder (after round 19):
1

Richmond
19 15 4 0 135.7 60
2

West Coast Eagles
19 14 5 0 124.1 56
3

GWS Giants
19 12 6 1 120.8 50
4

Melbourne
19 12 7 0 132.8 48
5

Hawthorn
19 12 7 0 121.4 48
6

Collingwood
19 12 7 0 117.1 48
7

Port Adelaide
19 12 7 0 114.9 48
8

Sydney Swans
19 12 7 0 109.6 48
9

Geelong Cats
19 11 8 0 118.8 44
10

North Melbourne
19 11 8 0 110.1 44

Aside from Richmond, the other top 4 teams can still potentially miss Finals altogether with 12-14W (if they lose all 3 remaining games). That would be a mindblowing result!
Tigers and Eagles look set for top 4 by end of round 23 though, and the others are battling for 3rd to 8th spots, with ridiculous amounts of permutations right now!

 

[00Stinger]

I can’t see which records are gonna be broken. 8th will probably be 13 wins with a good percentage. The top 4 will have a relatively low win tally.

We might see the strongest team to miss the finals since the 8 has existed though. I can’t recall any 13 win teams missing the finals in recent years.

I saw something this week that said the last time a team won 13 games and missed finals was the early 90's when it was a top 6

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[ioppolo]

Didn't Hawthorn win 13 games in the early 2000s and finish 9th?

 

[tony__montana]

This looks like one of those desperate "record breaking" events they seek out for the evening news. "record breaking heat !!!". Only to find they can claim that simply coz it was the hottest day for 11 years out at Gulargambone today.
You can always construct or find a record if you want one.

I really dont see anything interesting nor significant in an 18 team comp with 8 finalists. Especially when the governing body has been going out of their way to artificially create the same team x 18.

Its like real estate agents claiming

"Sold! for a street record!"

*for a 3 bdr home between 5-600sqm"

 

[Roobs321]

This year looks primed to have a 13-9 miss out, which has never happened in the top 8 era, although a 12-10 9th is still a strong chance.

The highest performing 9th to date has been St Kilda in 2012, who were 12-10 and had the 5th best percentage (123%). A best-of-the-rest side that kept the higher teams honest. I think the '12 Saints will have an '18 12-10 9th covered.

Would have been interesting if North didn't collapse in 2016, 7th was 15-7 (and went on to win the flag).

Of course there was Essendon being banned from finals in 2013 with a 14-8 record, which doesn't count.

 

[Roobs321]

Didn't Hawthorn win 13 games in the early 2000s and finish 9th?

They went 12-10 in 2003. Been a couple of those, but St Kilda in 2012 the only one with a notable percentage.

 

[Werewolf]

The Bulldogs only lost 7 games in 2016 but finished 7th after the H&A season, while teams 3rd to 6th only lost 6 games.

This year the team that finishes 4th will have at least 7 losses, and it's quite possible 2nd and 3rd will also have lost 7 games. This will occur if Melbourne beats GWS and West Coast drop two games against Port (away), Melbourne (home) or Brisbane (away).

 

[Roobs321]

The Bulldogs only lost 7 games in 2016 but finished 7th after the H&A season, while teams 3rd to 6th only lost 6 games.

I still find it weird that West Coast went 16-6/130% that year (better than the minor premier the following year), including 8-1 into finals. That late flurry of form in the final three weeks made our season look better on paper than it deserved, one of the most meh 16-6s in history.

 

[BF Tiger]

So is this a hard year or an easy year to win a premiership in?

 

[Listclogger]

So is this a hard year or an easy year to win a premiership in?

Depends if we win it or not....

 

[Royce Hafey]

They went 12-10 in 2003. Been a couple of those, but St Kilda in 2012 the only one with a notable percentage.

St Kilda finished made finals that year. Richmond finished 9th in 1996 with a % of 117 and in 1998 with 12 wins (the eventual premier, Adelaide had 13). That's where all the Ninthmond hype started.

 

[ioppolo]

Saints missed finals in 2012, 2011 was their last final

 

[John Who]

Since 2012 (with 18 teams), this year has been a standout in terms of the evenness of the minor rounds. And yes, records have been broken!

* Record for 8th team with the highest score percentage ever!
- Cats coming in at 8th spot with a whopping score percentage of 131.6%! This is second only to the Tigers, with a score percentage of 136.2%.

* Record number of teams making the Major rounds with a score percentage of greater than 120%!
- there are 6 teams in total in this year's top 8 with a score percentage > 120%. All other previous years (with an 18 team competition), there has been at most 5 teams with a score percentage of >120%.

What these records mean, who really knows?! But fair to say, all the teams in the top 8 this year have shown some good form, and were able to beat other teams in the top 8. Besides the Tigers showing consistent form throughout, this year it's much harder to predict which other teams would be serious challengers for the flag.