I think most of us here were somewhat bemused with the Turner selection. However, if we had Carmichael on the list now for an additional year (he had an 18m contract), would that have been a good decision?
Would it have been bad?
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I think most of us here were somewhat bemused with the Turner selection. However, if we had Carmichael on the list now for an additional year (he had an 18m contract), would that have been a good decision?
Bit unrealistic to expect McAsey to have played 68 games in 3 years!Thought some might find this interesting. Below is a graph of player ratings for the top 20 draftees from 2017 to 2019 (the period we say was amongst our worst drafting).
View attachment 1550627
This allows us to compare actual player ratings to expectations (just a simple trend line, so not perfect). Based on this, the Crows were the 13th best at drafting during this period:
RankTeam Actual Expected % 1Richmond 130 65 200% 2Geelong 163 90 181% 3Western Bulldogs 319 190 168% 4Brisbane Lions 227 147 154% 5Hawthorn 59 43 136% 6Port Adelaide 265 208 127% 7Melbourne 151 125 121% 8Collingwood 118 111 106% 9North Melbourne 133 136 98% 10Fremantle 350 366 96% 11Gold Coast 445 469 95% 12GWS Giants 85 90 95% 13Adelaide 158 204 77% 14Greater Western Sydney 137 179 76% 15St Kilda 153 201 76% 16Sydney 107 165 65% 17Carlton 185 287 65% 18West Coast 22 43 51%
On a player by player basis, this is us:
Year Pick Player Team Actual Expected % 2017 12Darcy Fogarty Adelaide 70.1 46.7 150% 2018 9Chayce Jones Adelaide 38.2 57.4 67% 2018 16Ned McHenry Adelaide 45.2 32.4 140% 2019 6Fischer McAsey Adelaide 4.2 68.1 6%
In case you were wondering, yes, McAsey has by far the worst actual to expected rating (for any player who has played).
It's too early to tell, but I'd say our 2020 and 2021 draftees will look ok in a few years time.
No, what is undeniable is we don't have enough experienced players in our best 22 to be a finals threat.If we ignore where people are drafted or how they got to the club, I'd say we simply don't have enough talent playing in our first 22.
I think this is undeniable.
These are the Stats Insider AFL player ratings (out of 100, with Clayton Oliver the best on 99.7), not games.Bit unrealistic to expect McAsey to have played 68 games in 3 years!
This model needs to be adjusted based on number of years on the list.
No surprise the experienced sides are at the top of this list.
I gather Thilthorpe should have played over 100 games by now...
No problems... just saying the expected games should be scaed for the number of years since they were drafted... as clearly Petracca has had more opportunity to play more games than Thilthorpe, yet both are expected to have played around the same number of games... so perhaps not objective as it could be.These are the Stats Insider AFL player ratings (out of 100, with Clayton Oliver the best on 99.7), not games.
Not a perfect measure, but objective and it looks about right when you look at the best players.
Also why I haven't included players drafted 2020 and 2021, as a lot won't have had a chance to set an indicative average.
Yet the best drafting team in the comp Port also passd on him for Teakle...oh, what a conflict.And yet Collingwood, a top 4 side did
If we didn't rate him, I wouldn't be taking that as a badge of honour.
But simple question, did we have the list spot even if we rated him enough to give him an 18 month contract?
It's not expected games, but the player rating expected of a player selected at that pick.No problems... just saying the expected games should be scaed for the number of years since they were drafted... as clearly Petracca has had more opportunity to play more games than Thilthorpe, yet both are expected to have played around the same number of games... so perhaps not objective as it could be.
So of course older sides are going to rank higher v expected games if not adjusted for number of years since drafted.
Another nonsense post from you, if you’re going to make stuff up, go to Bay 13Yet the best drafting team in the comp Port also passd on him for Teakle...oh, what a conflict.
Which bit did I make up?Another nonsense post from you, if you’re going to make stuff up, go to Bay 13
I wasn't talking about the list I was just talking about the current 22.No, what is undeniable is we don't have enough experienced players in our best 22 to be a finals threat.
Given how young our list is, we don't know how talented some of out players are & whether they will be regular AFL players.
Who said Port have the best drafting team in the comp? It’s the same as the bullshit you came up with today about some saying Hamish is the worst recruiter. If you need to make stuff up you’re argument is obviously strugglingWhich bit did I make up?
So who'se everyone's shock round 1 best 22 inclusion in 2023.
I'm going with Seedsman.
At the end of the day we all love the club and want it to be successful.
It staggers me how determined some are that Hamish is the worst recruiter in the world and Reid has done a terrible job at managing a list transition to the youngest team in the competition over 3 years.
obviously not counting lever being AA.
I see Doedee or Fogarty being AA within the near future.
AA is meaningless.
Position value counts.
AA in a cheap Brent Reilly, Jake Lever role is nothing to be excited about.
In a much more valuable, high leverage position Tex has never been AA and is worth far more than anyone who might perform well in a cheap, meaningless position
So what about the parent that is always negative and tells the child, and anyone else that will listen, that they will never amount to anything?Do we?
I don’t think a parent that never says no, indulges every desire, let’s homework slide, always feeds their kid chips and chocolate until they’re the size of a house actually loves the child and wants it to be successful.
In the same way, I don’t think someone who unquestioningly laps up every excremental sandwich dished up by the club really loves the club and wants it to be successful.
If you can’t be a critical friend to the club, what are you?
Taylor swift has more critical opprobrium from her 16 yr old fan base than some of our lot would offer.
Yes but it’s a fallacy that those criticising the club are always negative, the positive stuff gets overlooked and that’s on other postersSo what about the parent that is always negative and tells the child, and anyone else that will listen, that they will never amount to anything?
That's just some deadbeat dad taking his life's frustrations out on some poor kid who is just looking for love and acknowledgement. Anyone got the number for Child Services?
While there are very few always negative or always positive posters, we are all on different points on the negative to positive spectrum and we're frustrated/ excited by different things.Yes but it’s a fallacy that those criticising the club are always negative, the positive stuff gets overlooked and that’s on other posters
So what about the parent that is always negative and tells the child, and anyone else that will listen, that they will never amount to anything?
That's just some deadbeat dad taking his life's frustrations out on some poor kid who is just looking for love and acknowledgement. Anyone got the number for Child Services?
Tell that to GeorgeAA is meaningless.
Position value counts.
AA in a cheap Brent Reilly, Jake Lever role is nothing to be excited about.
In a much more valuable, high leverage position Tex has never been AA and is worth far more than anyone who might perform well in a cheap, meaningless position
Tell that to George
You didn't strike me as the huggy type. But yeah, bring it in big guy!Do you need a hug?
Apparently notIf you can grasp it, he certainly can