Opinion Recruiting and List Management Team: Hamish Ogilvie, Justin Reid & Co

[1970crow]

I think most of us here were somewhat bemused with the Turner selection. However, if we had Carmichael on the list now for an additional year (he had an 18m contract), would that have been a good decision?

Would it have been bad?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Thought some might find this interesting. Below is a graph of player ratings for the top 20 draftees from 2017 to 2019 (the period we say was amongst our worst drafting).
View attachment 1550627

This allows us to compare actual player ratings to expectations (just a simple trend line, so not perfect). Based on this, the Crows were the 13th best at drafting during this period:

Rank​	Team	Actual​	Expected​	%​
1​	Richmond	130​	65​	200%​
2​	Geelong	163​	90​	181%​
3​	Western Bulldogs	319​	190​	168%​
4​	Brisbane Lions	227​	147​	154%​
5​	Hawthorn	59​	43​	136%​
6​	Port Adelaide	265​	208​	127%​
7​	Melbourne	151​	125​	121%​
8​	Collingwood	118​	111​	106%​
9​	North Melbourne	133​	136​	98%​
10​	Fremantle	350​	366​	96%​
11​	Gold Coast	445​	469​	95%​
12​	GWS Giants	85​	90​	95%​
13​	Adelaide	158​	204​	77%​
14​	Greater Western Sydney	137​	179​	76%​
15​	St Kilda	153​	201​	76%​
16​	Sydney	107​	165​	65%​
17​	Carlton	185​	287​	65%​
18​	West Coast	22​	43​	51%​

On a player by player basis, this is us:

Year	Pick	Player	Team	Actual	Expected	%
2017​	12​	Darcy Fogarty	Adelaide	70.1​	46.7​	150%​
2018​	9​	Chayce Jones	Adelaide	38.2​	57.4​	67%​
2018​	16​	Ned McHenry	Adelaide	45.2​	32.4​	140%​
2019​	6​	Fischer McAsey	Adelaide	4.2​	68.1​	6%​

In case you were wondering, yes, McAsey has by far the worst actual to expected rating (for any player who has played).

It's too early to tell, but I'd say our 2020 and 2021 draftees will look ok in a few years time.

Bit unrealistic to expect McAsey to have played 68 games in 3 years!

This model needs to be adjusted based on number of years on the list.

No surprise the experienced sides are at the top of this list.

I gather Thilthorpe should have played over 100 games by now...

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If we ignore where people are drafted or how they got to the club, I'd say we simply don't have enough talent playing in our first 22.

I think this is undeniable.

No, what is undeniable is we don't have enough experienced players in our best 22 to be a finals threat.

Given how young our list is, we don't know how talented some of out players are & whether they will be regular AFL players.

 

[Big Dub]

Bit unrealistic to expect McAsey to have played 68 games in 3 years!

This model needs to be adjusted based on number of years on the list.

No surprise the experienced sides are at the top of this list.

I gather Thilthorpe should have played over 100 games by now...

These are the Stats Insider AFL player ratings (out of 100, with Clayton Oliver the best on 99.7), not games.

Not a perfect measure, but objective and it looks about right when you look at the best players.

Also why I haven't included players drafted 2020 and 2021, as a lot won't have had a chance to set an indicative average.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

These are the Stats Insider AFL player ratings (out of 100, with Clayton Oliver the best on 99.7), not games.

Not a perfect measure, but objective and it looks about right when you look at the best players.

Also why I haven't included players drafted 2020 and 2021, as a lot won't have had a chance to set an indicative average.

No problems... just saying the expected games should be scaed for the number of years since they were drafted... as clearly Petracca has had more opportunity to play more games than Thilthorpe, yet both are expected to have played around the same number of games... so perhaps not objective as it could be.

So of course older sides are going to rank higher v expected games if not adjusted for number of years since drafted.

 

[Thetrader15]

And yet Collingwood, a top 4 side did

If we didn't rate him, I wouldn't be taking that as a badge of honour.

But simple question, did we have the list spot even if we rated him enough to give him an 18 month contract?

Yet the best drafting team in the comp Port also passd on him for Teakle...oh, what a conflict.

 

[Big Dub]

No problems... just saying the expected games should be scaed for the number of years since they were drafted... as clearly Petracca has had more opportunity to play more games than Thilthorpe, yet both are expected to have played around the same number of games... so perhaps not objective as it could be.

So of course older sides are going to rank higher v expected games if not adjusted for number of years since drafted.

It's not expected games, but the player rating expected of a player selected at that pick.

For example, the expected player rating for pick 1 (from 2017 to 2019) is 85.9. Cam Rayner's player rating is 78 (91% of expectations), Sam Walsh's is 92.7 (108%) and Matt Rowell's is 87.1 (101%).

Games played will make a bit of a difference, as it allows players average score to increase as they get more experienced. But Rayner has played the most games (87), but isn't as highly ranked as Rowell (39 games) or Walsh (81 games).

 

[George Kramer]

Yet the best drafting team in the comp Port also passd on him for Teakle...oh, what a conflict.

Another nonsense post from you, if you’re going to make stuff up, go to Bay 13

 

[Thetrader15]

Another nonsense post from you, if you’re going to make stuff up, go to Bay 13

Which bit did I make up?

 

[BunjiMac]

No, what is undeniable is we don't have enough experienced players in our best 22 to be a finals threat.

Given how young our list is, we don't know how talented some of out players are & whether they will be regular AFL players.

I wasn't talking about the list I was just talking about the current 22.

 

[George Kramer]

Which bit did I make up?

Who said Port have the best drafting team in the comp? It’s the same as the bullshit you came up with today about some saying Hamish is the worst recruiter. If you need to make stuff up you’re argument is obviously struggling

 

[Jcpdragonx]

So who'se everyone's shock round 1 best 22 inclusion in 2023.

I'm going with Seedsman.

Hately over Shoenberg. Although it seems Nicks has little time for Hately.

 

[Sanders]

At the end of the day we all love the club and want it to be successful.

Do we?

I don’t think a parent that never says no, indulges every desire, let’s homework slide, always feeds their kid chips and chocolate until they’re the size of a house actually loves the child and wants it to be successful.

In the same way, I don’t think someone who unquestioningly laps up every excremental sandwich dished up by the club really loves the club and wants it to be successful.

If you can’t be a critical friend to the club, what are you?

Taylor swift has more critical opprobrium from her 16 yr old fan base than some of our lot would offer.

 

[Sanders]

It staggers me how determined some are that Hamish is the worst recruiter in the world and Reid has done a terrible job at managing a list transition to the youngest team in the competition over 3 years.

How hard actually is that?

Delist and draft. Easy

 

[Sanders]

obviously not counting lever being AA.

I see Doedee or Fogarty being AA within the near future.

AA is meaningless.

Position value counts.

AA in a cheap Brent Reilly, Jake Lever role is nothing to be excited about.

In a much more valuable, high leverage position Tex has never been AA and is worth far more than anyone who might perform well in a cheap, meaningless position

 

[AFC979810]

AA is meaningless.

Position value counts.

AA in a cheap Brent Reilly, Jake Lever role is nothing to be excited about.

In a much more valuable, high leverage position Tex has never been AA and is worth far more than anyone who might perform well in a cheap, meaningless position

Tyson Stengle board.

 

[Big Dub]

Do we?

I don’t think a parent that never says no, indulges every desire, let’s homework slide, always feeds their kid chips and chocolate until they’re the size of a house actually loves the child and wants it to be successful.

In the same way, I don’t think someone who unquestioningly laps up every excremental sandwich dished up by the club really loves the club and wants it to be successful.

If you can’t be a critical friend to the club, what are you?

Taylor swift has more critical opprobrium from her 16 yr old fan base than some of our lot would offer.

So what about the parent that is always negative and tells the child, and anyone else that will listen, that they will never amount to anything?

That's just some deadbeat dad taking his life's frustrations out on some poor kid who is just looking for love and acknowledgement. Anyone got the number for Child Services?

 

[AFC979810]

I actually think that between 2000 and 2018 years we have been one of the best clubs at identifying and developing talent in the AFL - especially considering our draft spots.

Just need to look at the quality of players that have gone on to play and succeed for other clubs. Our biggest issue has been player retention, which looks to have been fixed (at least in the short term).

 

[George Kramer]

So what about the parent that is always negative and tells the child, and anyone else that will listen, that they will never amount to anything?

That's just some deadbeat dad taking his life's frustrations out on some poor kid who is just looking for love and acknowledgement. Anyone got the number for Child Services?

Yes but it’s a fallacy that those criticising the club are always negative, the positive stuff gets overlooked and that’s on other posters

 

[Big Dub]

Yes but it’s a fallacy that those criticising the club are always negative, the positive stuff gets overlooked and that’s on other posters

While there are very few always negative or always positive posters, we are all on different points on the negative to positive spectrum and we're frustrated/ excited by different things.

Which is good, because it would be a pretty boring forum if we weren't.

But there was no way that I could let that parent-child analogy gift go through to the keeper.

 

[Sanders]

So what about the parent that is always negative and tells the child, and anyone else that will listen, that they will never amount to anything?

That's just some deadbeat dad taking his life's frustrations out on some poor kid who is just looking for love and acknowledgement. Anyone got the number for Child Services?

Do you need a hug?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

AA is meaningless.

Position value counts.

AA in a cheap Brent Reilly, Jake Lever role is nothing to be excited about.

In a much more valuable, high leverage position Tex has never been AA and is worth far more than anyone who might perform well in a cheap, meaningless position

Tell that to George

 

[Sanders]

Tell that to George

If you can grasp it, he certainly can

 

[Big Dub]

Do you need a hug?

You didn't strike me as the huggy type. But yeah, bring it in big guy!

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

If you can grasp it, he certainly can

Apparently not