Opinion Recruiting and List Management Team: Hamish Ogilvie, Justin Reid & Co

[Thetrader15]

So who'se everyone's shock round 1 best 22 inclusion in 2023.

I'm going with Seedsman.

Jackson Hately!

 

[Scorpus]

So who'se everyone's shock round 1 best 22 inclusion in 2023.

I'm going with Seedsman.

Lachie Murphy

 

[George Kramer]

It staggers me how determined some are that Hamish is the worst recruiter in the world and Reid has done a terrible job at managing a list transition to the youngest team in the competition over 3 years.

Some people on here expect us to be playing in the grand final every year!

I’m not staggered you had to make that up to try and prove your point

 

[George Kramer]

He'll play 10+ IMO.

What's your bet...zero, because he's rubbish right?

I’m saying I believe he is a very strong candidate to be delisted because he isn’t very good and is not a preferred inside midfielder under Nicks.

How many games they give him will depend on injuries etc and Nicks questionable game day selections, who knows he might try to turn him into a winger again.

 

[George Kramer]

Of course Hamish recommended to the Adelaide Crows by the uber astute Alan Stewart originally.

He was our number 1 East Coast scout from December 2006 until taking over from Rendell who reigned in March 2012.

So Hamish has played a part in every player we've drafted or recruited since January 2007.

But not Turner according to you when you questioned his selection

Oh and you don’t need to remind us about Hamish’s drafting but ultimately Rendell had the final say whilst he was in charge

 

[Scorpus]

I think list management team quality and ladder position are closely linked.

Teams with good lists typically finish higher. They recruit better players and draft better players.

However there's always a lag. Who you recruit several years ago determines how you go now.

North a great example. Terrible list managers. The players they brought in several years ago are average and now they are awful as a team.

We will quickly find out in the upcoming season whether we are in the same boat and whether our list management has been doing a good job. Last few seasons a lot of unknowns, we're going to get plenty of knowns this season

 

[Mostyn]

However there's always a lag. Who you recruit several years ago determines how you go now.

North a great example. Terrible list managers. The players they brought in several years ago are average and now they are awful as a team.

St Kilda are also another intersting example. Two or three years ago, they were receiving a lot of compliments for the moves they were making. Now, it's all how terrible they are.

I reckon the truth is probably neither of those.

 

[Thetrader15]

I think list management team quality and ladder position are closely linked.

Teams with good lists typically finish higher. They recruit better players and draft better players.

However there's always a lag. Who you recruit several years ago determines how you go now.

North a great example. Terrible list managers. The players they brought in several years ago are average and now they are awful as a team.

We will quickly find out in the upcoming season whether we are in the same boat and whether our list management has been doing a good job. Last few seasons a lot of unknowns, we're going to get plenty of knowns this season

Check out Geelong's drafting, it's been poor in the first round, but very strong in the later / rookie rounds.

Since 2010, their picks inside 20 were:

15 - Smedts
16 - Lang
10 - Cockatoo
15 - Clark
16 - Stephens
19 - De Koning

What Geelong have done exceptionally well is top up with quality recruits like Dangerfield, Cameron, Smith and role players like Stanley, Stengle, Dahlhaus and Henderson, not to mention being gifted a couple champion Father Sons for nothing (Hawkins, Ablett)

So if you were going to rate a recruiter only on first round picks, Stephen Wells should have been sacked years ago.

It's about the whole list management / recruiting / TPP management team.

 

[Thetrader15]

But not Turner according to you when you questioned his selection

Oh and you don’t need to remind us about Hamish’s drafting but ultimately Rendell had the final say whilst he was in charge

I think most of us here were somewhat bemused with the Turner selection. However, if we had Carmichael on the list now for an additional year (he had an 18m contract), would that have been a good decision?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

View attachment 1550391

That’s a pretty damming stat, Hamish lovers care to defend?

obviously not counting lever being AA.

I see Doedee or Fogarty being AA within the near future.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

That’s interesting, WaynesWorld19 you can make the AA side if you’re a bottom team

And Trader it’s one metric, the all round ability of the team is obviously important, but having the inability to draft AA quality players since 2012 and to be a bottom team is a concern isn’t it

Let's qualify that .....bottom 4, NORTH, GWS, WC, and ESS .....I'm talking about rebuild sides

Lets look at the 2021 Ladder .....3 of those 4 teams simply had terrible years .....they weren't in a rebuild like NORTH and us


My statement stands up pretty well ......no leaks

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Wouldn't it be Charlie Cameron that's the most recent then?

Yes .....if you're going to align obtaining AA blazers with Drafting

 

[Scorpus]

View attachment 1550391

That’s a pretty damming stat, Hamish lovers care to defend?

Geelong's most recent selection still at the club to make AA was Tom Stewart in 2016

If they meant to count draftees including those not at the club they also have to change Adelaide to Jake Lever in 2014

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Or Charlie Cameron

Or Danger.

 

[Big Dub]

Thought some might find this interesting. Below is a graph of player ratings for the top 20 draftees from 2017 to 2019 (the period we say was amongst our worst drafting).


This allows us to compare actual player ratings to expectations (just a simple trend line, so not perfect). Based on this, the Crows were the 13th best at drafting during this period:

Rank​	Team	Actual​	Expected​	%​
1​	Richmond	130​	65​	200%​
2​	Geelong	163​	90​	181%​
3​	Western Bulldogs	319​	190​	168%​
4​	Brisbane Lions	227​	147​	154%​
5​	Hawthorn	59​	43​	136%​
6​	Port Adelaide	265​	208​	127%​
7​	Melbourne	151​	125​	121%​
8​	Collingwood	118​	111​	106%​
9​	North Melbourne	133​	136​	98%​
10​	Fremantle	350​	366​	96%​
11​	Gold Coast	445​	469​	95%​
12​	GWS Giants	85​	90​	95%​
13​	Adelaide	158​	204​	77%​
14​	Greater Western Sydney	137​	179​	76%​
15​	St Kilda	153​	201​	76%​
16​	Sydney	107​	165​	65%​
17​	Carlton	185​	287​	65%​
18​	West Coast	22​	43​	51%​

On a player by player basis, this is us:

Year	Pick	Player	Team	Actual	Expected	%
2017​	12​	Darcy Fogarty	Adelaide	70.1​	46.7​	150%​
2018​	9​	Chayce Jones	Adelaide	38.2​	57.4​	67%​
2018​	16​	Ned McHenry	Adelaide	45.2​	32.4​	140%​
2019​	6​	Fischer McAsey	Adelaide	4.2​	68.1​	6%​

In case you were wondering, yes, McAsey has by far the worst actual to expected rating (for any player who has played).

It's too early to tell, but I'd say our 2020 and 2021 draftees will look ok in a few years time.

 

[George Kramer]

Let's qualify that .....bottom 4, NORTH, GWS, WC, and ESS .....I'm talking about rebuild sides

Lets look at the 2021 Ladder .....3 of those 4 teams simply had terrible years .....they weren't in a rebuild like NORTH and us
View attachment 1550597

My statement stands up pretty well ......no leaks

Rebuild side or s**t side makes no bloody difference when it comes to AA nominations. Both are bottom sides and GWS had a nomination.

That's ludicrous to differentiate between a rebuilding side and a team thats crashed to the bottom.

 

[George Kramer]

I think most of us here were somewhat bemused with the Turner selection. However, if we had Carmichael on the list now for an additional year (he had an 18m contract), would that have been a good decision?

Yes, much better than Turner. The only reason we didn't is because we had no list spots, now whose fault is that?

 

[Thetrader15]

Yes, much better than Turner. The only reason we didn't is because we had no list spots, now whose fault is that?

or we thought he wasn't that good and didn't deserve an 18m contract.

 

[George Kramer]

or we thought he wasn't that good and didn't deserve an 18m contract.

And yet Collingwood, a top 4 side did

If we didn't rate him, I wouldn't be taking that as a badge of honour.

But simple question, did we have the list spot even if we rated him enough to give him an 18 month contract?

 

[Big Dub]

And yet Collingwood, a top 4 side did

If we didn't rate him, I wouldn't be taking that as a badge of honour.

But simple question, did we have the list spot even if we rated him enough to give him an 18 month contract?

Yes. He would have come on to the rookie list. It's main list spots where we are tight.

 

[George Kramer]

Yes. He would have come on to the rookie list. It's main list spots where we are tight.

How many rookie spots will we have available assuming we dont redraft Turner?

 

[Big Dub]

How many rookie spots will we have available assuming we dont redraft Turner?

If we don't pick up someone late in the main draft (where we would need to push someone onto the rookie list post draft to upgrade Butts and Strachan), we would have 2 rookie spots. We will also pick up another pre-season spot as Seed will go back on the long term injury list.

I was a bit upset when we didn't pick up Carmichael (or Derkson), but the club clearly didn't like him as we could have got Turner at our second pick if we wanted to.

That said, neither Carmichael or Turner (who looked good by our SANFL finals, to be fair) fix our lack of elite mids issue. We have plenty of current or future "good but not great" mids.

 

[BunjiMac]

If we ignore where people are drafted or how they got to the club, I'd say we simply don't have enough talent playing in our first 22.

I think this is undeniable.

 

[1970crow]

I think list management team quality and ladder position are closely linked.

Teams with good lists typically finish higher. They recruit better players and draft better players.

However there's always a lag. Who you recruit several years ago determines how you go now.

North a great example. Terrible list managers. The players they brought in several years ago are average and now they are awful as a team.

We will quickly find out in the upcoming season whether we are in the same boat and whether our list management has been doing a good job. Last few seasons a lot of unknowns, we're going to get plenty of knowns this season

Crap overarching strategy and selection philosophy hamstrings talent ID and LM.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

So who'se everyone's shock round 1 best 22 inclusion in 2023.

I'm going with Seedsman.

Would be a huge plus, but I doubt it.

My shock out is Doedee given the late decision for shoulder surgery.

As for ins, I'll go Taylor & Pedlar.