I'm sure I'm not the only Crows fan who has felt, over the years, that we give up way more red-time goals than other clubs, and more than we manage to score ourselves. But over the last couple of months it's felt like the opposite, like we're the team getting those red-time goals and going into breaks (especially half-time breaks) with the momentum and good vibes that they bring.
I decided to do a (very basic) analysis of red-time goals in our matches for this year. We've played 18 matches, I've separated it into our first nine matches, and our next nine matches. Note that we went 6-3 in the first and 7-2 in the latter, so it's quite a fair comparison. I've (somewhat arbitrarily) decided that "red time" corresponds to the last six minutes of real time per quarter (so for example if a quarter goes 34 minutes, it starts from the 28 minute mark).
The main summary up-front:
First nine games: We scored 19 red-time goals, and had 24 red-time goals scored against us.
Next nine games: We scored 19 red-time goals, and had 9 red-time goals scored against us.
There is an immediate story to tell there. We're not scoring any more red-time goals, but we sure are preventing them! I'm sure most people here can remember us managing to give up three quick goals to NM at the end of Q1 at the start of the year, or us allowing Port to score a red-time goal in every quarter in the last Showdown, keeping both of those sides alive when they should have been buried. It seems we have tightened up on this since round 9 at least.
To drill down further, four of those red-time goals from the more recent set of nine games came in one match, round 10 against Collingwood (while we only kicked one). So in the last eight rounds, we've only conceded five of them, including four rounds where we conceded none. In the first nine rounds, there was only one match where we conceded none (the GWS match where they only managed four goals total).
Another interesting angle is to look specifically at red-time goals in the second quarter, i.e. goals right on the cusp of half time. To me, these are the most damaging red-time goals. From the first nine games, we scored only three of these, while conceding five. From the next nine games, we have scored eight of them, while conceding only three. Massive turnaround.
I don't have an explanation for any of this, but it sure is a nice change! Long may it continue.
Raw data:
I decided to do a (very basic) analysis of red-time goals in our matches for this year. We've played 18 matches, I've separated it into our first nine matches, and our next nine matches. Note that we went 6-3 in the first and 7-2 in the latter, so it's quite a fair comparison. I've (somewhat arbitrarily) decided that "red time" corresponds to the last six minutes of real time per quarter (so for example if a quarter goes 34 minutes, it starts from the 28 minute mark).
The main summary up-front:
First nine games: We scored 19 red-time goals, and had 24 red-time goals scored against us.
Next nine games: We scored 19 red-time goals, and had 9 red-time goals scored against us.
There is an immediate story to tell there. We're not scoring any more red-time goals, but we sure are preventing them! I'm sure most people here can remember us managing to give up three quick goals to NM at the end of Q1 at the start of the year, or us allowing Port to score a red-time goal in every quarter in the last Showdown, keeping both of those sides alive when they should have been buried. It seems we have tightened up on this since round 9 at least.
To drill down further, four of those red-time goals from the more recent set of nine games came in one match, round 10 against Collingwood (while we only kicked one). So in the last eight rounds, we've only conceded five of them, including four rounds where we conceded none. In the first nine rounds, there was only one match where we conceded none (the GWS match where they only managed four goals total).
Another interesting angle is to look specifically at red-time goals in the second quarter, i.e. goals right on the cusp of half time. To me, these are the most damaging red-time goals. From the first nine games, we scored only three of these, while conceding five. From the next nine games, we have scored eight of them, while conceding only three. Massive turnaround.
I don't have an explanation for any of this, but it sure is a nice change! Long may it continue.
Raw data:
| Round | Our red-time goals | Opponent | Their red-time goals |
| 1 | 2 (Q1, Q4) | St Kilda | 4 (Q1, Q3, Q3, Q4) |
| 2 | 5 (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, Q4) | Essendon | 2 (Q3, Q4) |
| 3 | 1 (Q3) | North Melbourne | 4 (Q1, Q1, Q1, Q2) |
| 4 | 2 (Q1, Q3) | Gold Coast | 1 (Q2) |
| 5 | 1 (Q3) | Geelong | 4 (Q1, Q2, Q2, Q4) |
| 6 | 1 (Q3) | GWS | 0 |
| 7 | 1 (Q4) | Fremantle | 4 (Q1, Q1, Q3, Q3) |
| 8 | 5 (Q2, Q3, Q3, Q3, Q4) | Carlton | 1 (Q4) |
| 9 | 1 (Q2) | Port Adelaide | 4 (Q1, Q2, Q2, Q4) |
| Round | Our red-time goals | Opponent | Their red-time goals |
| 10 | 1 (Q2) | Collingwood | 4 (Q1, Q1, Q2, Q2) |
| 11 | 5 (Q2, Q3, Q3, Q3, Q4) | West Coast | 1 (Q2) |
| 12 | 4 (Q1, Q2, Q2, Q3) | Sydney | 0 |
| 13 | 1 (Q2) | Brisbane | 2 (Q3, Q3) |
| 14 | 1 (Q1) | Hawthorn | 0 |
| 16 | 3 (Q2, Q3, Q4) | Richmond | 1 (Q3) |
| 17 | 0 | Melbourne | 0 |
| 18 | 2 (Q2, Q3) | Western Bulldogs | 1 (Q4) |
| 19 | 2 (Q2, Q3) | Gold Coast | 0 |
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