Analysis Redo the 2018 Draft

[awesome wells]

Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

and Bailey smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

are the only other players I’d consider before TT. Even then I’d still rather keep TT

 

[Ash1337]

Top 10 was pretty much correct except for Jones who was a reach back then. Replace with Butters. Then go Quaynor, Scholl, McInerney, Hamill, Scott, Schultz, Duursma, RowBottom, Jordon, Ross, for the 11-20.

 

[Sphynx]

Sam Walsh and Bailey smith are the only other players I’d consider before TT. Even then I’d still rather keep TT

Thomas and Stringer have kicked the most goals in the comp for midfielders since the bye.

Adding in 5 tackles and 5 clearances a game and his damage by foot, foot speed and size/forward ability

I think I’d rather just keep Thomas given his ceiling.

 

[Ambrosia]

Sam Walsh and Bailey smith are the only other players I’d consider before TT. Even then I’d still rather keep TT

Reckon Thomas has gone past Smith at this stage but would still have Butters ahead atm.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

and Bailey smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

are the only other players I’d consider before TT. Even then I’d still rather keep TT

The King twins would have to be up there. Even Luko is flying under the radar. Doing great things up at GC.

Such a stacked draft.

 

[RUNVS]

The 2018 draft has to be one of the strongest drafts in 15 years.

 

[aussierulesrules]

The 2018 draft has to be one of the strongest drafts in 15 years.

If by 15 years you mean ever, then yes!

 

[Juddernaut08]

The 2018 draft has to be one of the strongest drafts in 15 years.

The only one that would be ahead is 2001, but even that could be overtaken once the KPPs in this 2018 draft hit their primes.

Crazy good draft. Adelaide's stuff up (Young Reid!) picking chayce jones is the only fault. Even then, he'll probably still be a decent foot soldier.

 

[danster168]

Sam Walsh and Bailey smith are the only other players I’d consider before TT. Even then I’d still rather keep TT

Sorry mate, no-one in their right mind is taking Tarryn Thomas before Walsh.

 

[AnEmptyChair]

Yeah, Walsh is clearly number 1. Gets interesting after that. I reckon you could have Smith, both Kings, Rozee, Butters, Thomas, Lukosius in any order after that and be justified in your decision.

 

[danster168]

1. Sam Walsh : Clear no.1
2. B.King: 2.4 goals a game. The better brother. And so young still.
3. Z.Butters: Ports best player but people have forgotten a bit due to injury.
4. B.Smith: Has been pushed out of his true position due to Treloar. Once he returns, look out.
5. Tarryn Thomas: Has had a great season. Especially the last month.
6. M.King: Kicking woes still plague him a bit but doing a great job for a young KPP.
7. Rozee : Could be higher but he has plateaued the last 12-18 months compared to others.
8. N.Hind: A point of difference with his speed.
9. Lukosius: Tries to do a bit too much with his kicking but he is composed and will get better with experience.
10. Quaynor: Love the way he moves and has great balance. Needs to tidy up his decision making.

 

[Sphynx]

Sorry mate, no-one in their right mind is taking Tarryn Thomas before Walsh.

Agreed, but a lot of things change.

Thomas wasn't even in this conversation 6 months ago.

If he continues the same rate of improvement, he 100% will be in the conversation.

He's as damaging a young midfielder as there is in the game at the moment.

Dustin Martin has averaged 1.4 goals a season 3 times in his career, he won the Brownlow in one of them, Norm Smiths in the other two with a decent % parked forward.

Bontempelli is the highest scoring midfielder across the full season this year at 1.3 goals per game, a clear career PB.


Thomas is going at 1.45 goals per game for the last 3 months at almost 20 disposals per game and 5 clearances per game.


When he's fully developed he may be a 1.5+ goal per game midfielder. The only genuine midfielder to be a 1.5+ goal a game mid in the last 30 years is Gablett Jnr (he did it 3 times) and in two of those seasons he won the Brownlow.

He still needs to get more of the ball, he will as he gets fitter and stronger. I was a doubter last year, but game on game you can see he's starting to realise he can dominate AFL midfielders now. His running patterns are absolutely superb and the reason he gets so many looks on goal. He's probably in the top handful of kicks in the league and he's 6"3.

His development required to take the next step is really only a physical one.


Really interested to see how he backs it up vs Geelong, as he has the look of a young player just wanting to dominate atm.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Thomas definitely had the highest ceiling

 

[awesome wells]

Sorry mate, no-one in their right mind is taking Tarryn Thomas before Walsh.

yeah ok mate that was just my personal opinion but carry on…

 

[Juddernaut08]

Agreed, but a lot of things change.

Thomas wasn't even in this conversation 6 months ago.

If he continues the same rate of improvement, he 100% will be in the conversation.

He's as damaging a young midfielder as there is in the game at the moment.

Dustin Martin has averaged 1.4 goals a season 3 times in his career, he won the Brownlow in one of them, Norm Smiths in the other two with a decent % parked forward.

Bontempelli is the highest scoring midfielder across the full season this year at 1.3 goals per game, a clear career PB.


Thomas is going at 1.45 goals per game for the last 3 months at almost 20 disposals per game and 5 clearances per game.


When he's fully developed he may be a 1.5+ goal per game midfielder. The only genuine midfielder to be a 1.5+ goal a game mid in the last 30 years is Gablett Jnr (he did it 3 times) and in two of those seasons he won the Brownlow.

He still needs to get more of the ball, he will as he gets fitter and stronger. I was a doubter last year, but game on game you can see he's starting to realise he can dominate AFL midfielders now. His running patterns are absolutely superb and the reason he gets so many looks on goal. He's probably in the top handful of kicks in the league and he's 6"3.

His development required to take the next step is really only a physical one.


Really interested to see how he backs it up vs Geelong, as he has the look of a young player just wanting to dominate atm.

GAJ was also averaging disposal no.s in the 30s...

TT is tracking very nicely and kicking a lot of goals but he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as GAJ.

17 disposals vs 30+ is a world of difference.

 

[Sphynx]

GAJ was also averaging disposal no.s in the 30s...

TT is tracking very nicely and kicking a lot of goals but he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as GAJ.

17 disposals vs 30+ is a world of difference.

I'm not comparing him to Gaz, I was merely pointing out the fact a 1.5+ goal per game midfielder is extremely rare and citing Gaz Jnr as pretty much the only full time midfielder to achieve it.

 

[Chopperdave]

If he continues the same rate of improvement, he 100% will be in the conversation.

You know that's not how it works right??? Ben King has doubled his goal output this season... Does that mean he will kick 100 next year?

 

[danster168]

I'm not comparing him to Gaz, I was merely pointing out the fact a 1.5+ goal per game midfielder is extremely rare and citing Gaz Jnr as pretty much the only full time midfielder to achieve it.

We're not saying he isn't great. It's about ranking them.

 

[danster168]

You know that's not how it works right??? Ben King has doubled his goal output this season... Does that mean he will kick 100 next year?

I agree with these sentiments.

 

[Sphynx]

You know that's not how it works right??? Ben King has doubled his goal output this season... Does that mean he will kick 100 next year?

Where did I say he needs to double his output?

Do you think he's capable of getting it 40 times a game and kicking 60 goals for the season?

He only needs about a 20% improvement statistically to be in the games elite.

Unless you think he's a finished product?

 

[danster168]

Where did I say he needs to double his output?

Do you think he's capable of getting it 40 times a game and kicking 60 goals for the season?

He only needs about a 20% improvement statistically to be in the games elite.

Unless you think he's a finished product?

Surely a Rozee is a reminder that it's dangerous to speculate? He was basically better in his first year than his 3rd.

That's why I've got Thomas at 5. The others have done more for longer.

 

[Wojcinski]

I'm not comparing him to Gaz, I was merely pointing out the fact a 1.5+ goal per game midfielder is extremely rare and citing Gaz Jnr as pretty much the only full time midfielder to achieve it.

Danger has done it twice (2013 and 2017)

 

[Sphynx]

Surely a Rozee is a reminder that it's dangerous to speculate? He was basically better in his first year than his 3rd.

That's why I've got Thomas at 5. The others have done more for longer.

Who's speculating?

He's kicked the most goals in the comp for a midfielder in the last 12 games. He's only played 44 games, so it's about ~25% of his career to date.

People are happy to speculate on Zac Butters?

He's been labelled Ports best player in this thread and he averages 18 disposals a game in his 6 games this season....

Unless the 14 disposals a game for the previous two years are considered a body of work that doesn't include speculation as to his clearly high ceiling?

 

[Sphynx]

Danger has done it twice (2013 and 2017)

Boomer has done it three times also, but I tried to keep it simple and in that inside/outside role.

Danger plays full games permanent forward at times.

 

[Chopperdave]

Unless you think he's a finished product?

You never know? He might stay a 15-20 poss 1.5-2 goal a game player. Or he might become a 30+1 player or maybe he becomes a freak 30+1.5-2 player. I'm just saying players don't always follow a standard trajectory.

Surely a Rozee is a reminder that it's dangerous to speculate? He was basically better in his first year than his 3rd.

To be fair to Rozee he hasn't been fit since his first season, unfortunately. Hopefully, he gets his foot right and we can see the best of him. But yes it is always a reminder a couple of injuries can really slow someone down.

People are happy to speculate on Zac Butters?

Made the AA squad last year and was the 2nd ranked player in the AFL before he got injured this season...