Analysis Redo the 2018 Draft

[Go the Guts]

Smith goes top 3 after 2 good games?

If he plays 3 good games..... no argument! Born to play finals.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Butters is going to be a jet. Are port fans worried about rozee? I think he's talented bur overrated as. Wouldn't be drafted in the top 10 in a redraft

kane cornes would have him top 1

 

[Del191229]

No one has ever bothered to tag Thomas. He’s played 6 weeks of consistent good football.

He got a tag in his first year

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

Butters is going to be a jet. Are port fans worried about rozee? I think he's talented bur overrated as. Wouldn't be drafted in the top 10 in a redraft

No doubt butters has gone past him. Rozee also had a strong end to the year (minus the prelim as well), and was playing good football. Has been battling a foot injury since the start of his second year. A little worried, but i have seen a lot of port players live not live up to their potential, if it happens again so be it

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Why remove the Carlton game lol what a stupid argument, if anything you remove his first game back coz he was just starting off and clearly wasn’t gunna be at his best
If you remove the first game (R17) back he averaged 6 per game for the remaining games

again the claim he was “terrible” is just completely wrong. He was top 3 in all our score involvements. His footy IQ is off the charts. It is clear you only watched the prelim

You remove the Carlton game because it was an anomaly and is way higher than anything else and isn't indicative of an average performance. It was a hundred point thumping of an undermanned team where you have 9 players get over 8 SI's. He didn't have another game within 4 SI's of that. That is a great game but not indicative of a form line or even of a great individual performance given the team dominance.

I don't get where you are pulling this top 3 number from. He was 6th for average SI, and 16th for total.

I watch every game every week. Don't take offence cause the stats reflect something that doesn't fit your narrative.

 

[lewdogs]

Matthew Lloyd's 2018 draft re-ranking

Matthew Lloyd has taken on the task of re-drafting the top seven of the 2018 National Draft, based on performance to date.

www.sen.com.au

View attachment 1235235

Looks like Matthew is still cross that Max didn't take those goal kicking sessions with him.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

You remove the Carlton game because it was an anomaly and is way higher than anything else and isn't indicative of an average performance. It was a hundred point thumping of an undermanned team where you have 9 players get over 8 SI's. He didn't have another game within 4 SI's of that. That is a great game but not indicative of a form line or even of a great individual performance given the team dominance.

I don't get where you are pulling this top 3 number from. He was 6th for average SI, and 16th for total.

I watch every game every week. Don't take offence cause the stats reflect something that doesn't fit your narrative.

Literally On The Couch prelim week had a segment about port prior to the prelim and showed ports scoring and butters was top 3 for all involvements the last 6 weeks. You are getting rid of his best game to try and make your argument better, which is dumb. No reason to take it out other than to suit your argument

You watch every game lol what a load of crap. You clearly only watched the prelim, coz any port fan would tell you butters had a good end to the year. Yet you’re here saying he was terrible, but have given no reason why he was terrible

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Literally On The Couch prelim week had a segment about port prior to the prelim and showed ports scoring and butters was top 3 for all involvements the last 6 weeks. You are getting rid of his best game to try and make your argument better, which is dumb. No reason to take it out other than to suit your argument

You watch every game lol what a load of crap. You clearly only watched the prelim, coz any port fan would tell you butters had a good end to the year. Yet you’re here saying he was terrible, but have given no reason why he was terrible

I commented in your last four games on the main board, I love watching Port.

He was terrible in comparison to the player he was. I had him as one of the best in the competition at the start of the year. The player he returned as was half the player he was. Intensity, aggression, zip, cleanness all halved on return.

Before injury 2.5 inside 50s after 1.6
Goals per game 1 vs 0.5.
SI: 6.25 vs 5
Tackles: 4.5 vs 2.8
Same assists average.
Contested possessions: 10.2 vs 5.6
Same total amount of rebound 50s and 1% in first 4 games as he had the last 8.

He was covering ground better, competing better and getting a lot more production despite so much contested ball.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

I commented in your last four games on the main board, I love watching Port.

He was terrible in comparison to the player he was. I had him as one of the best in the competition at the start of the year. The player he returned as was half the player he was. Intensity, aggression, zip, cleanness all halved on return.

Before injury 2.5 inside 50s after 1.6
Goals per game 1 vs 0.5.
SI: 6.25 vs 5
Tackles: 4.5 vs 2.8
Same assists average.
Contested possessions: 10.2 vs 5.6
Same total amount of rebound 50s and 1% in first 4 games as he had the last 8.

He was covering ground better, competing better and getting a lot more production despite so much contested ball.

Again waiting for a reason why he was terrible. The stats you showed prove he was good at the end of the year. He had a great start to the year yeah, but then destroyed his leg and had nerve damage, he could barely move his leg for 10 weeks, and you expect him to come back and be back to his best? He did what port fans wanted, played good football, port fans didn’t expect him to be back to his best yet.

Again how was he terrible?

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Again waiting for a reason why he was terrible. The stats you showed prove he was good at the end of the year. He had a great start to the year yeah, but then destroyed his leg and had nerve damage, he could barely move his leg for 10 weeks, and you expect him to come back and be back to his best? He did what port fans wanted, played good football, port fans didn’t expect him to be back to his best yet.

Again how was he terrible?

Semantic nonsense. He was half the player and the numbers show it.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

Semantic nonsense. He was half the player and the numbers show it.

Not he was not, his last 6 weeks were good. If that’s half of what he was my god. You’re completely delusional. He was back to his best, his intensity and goal sense was back. His scoring involvement was top 3 for port. You should try watching the game for once.

He had a good end to the year. You’re too stubborn to admit your “terrible” call was wrong. The stats back me up. Look at his last 6 weeks.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

If anything his last 6 was better than his first 4 considering he played 3 bottom 10 teams that first 4 weeks

In any case why would I take the word of an Essendon supporter who clearly doesn’t watch football, over port supporters who watch every port game and AFL commentators who were praising his end to the year?

 

[Red Black and Blue]

If anything his last 6 was better than his first 4 considering he played 3 bottom 10 teams that first 4 weeks

In any case why would I take the word of an Essendon supporter who clearly doesn’t watch football, over port supporters who watch every port game and AFL commentators who were praising his end to the year?

It's amusing you think football lovers wouldn't watch every game, especially when they are in lock down with nothing else to do.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

It's amusing you think football lovers wouldn't watch every game, especially when they are in lock down with nothing else to do.

So port fans have said he has had a good end to the year, Commentators through the game say he has had a good end to the year and then there you saying he has been terrible. Hmm… The thing that makes Butters good is the things he does that don’t register a stat or disposal. Don’t pretend you watch the game when it’s clear you don’t.

Literally have given no reason why he has been “terrible” yet

 

[Red Black and Blue]

So port fans have said he has had a good end to the year, Commentators through the game say he has had a good end to the year and then there you saying he has been terrible. Hmm… The thing that makes Butters good is the things he does that don’t register a stat or disposal. Don’t pretend you watch the game when it’s clear you don’t.

Literally have given no reason why he has been “terrible” yet

I did, you just lack comprehension of context.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

I did, you just lack comprehension of context.

Okay mate Whatever makes you feel better

 

[Monkey King]

You remove the Carlton game because it was an anomaly and is way higher than anything else and isn't indicative of an average performance.

Which makes it a worthless stat for comparing to any other player unless you also remove anomalous games from all players.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Which makes it a worthless stat for comparing to any other player unless you also remove anomalous games from all players.

Which is why I wasn’t comparing it to any other player, it was a comparison to his pre injury form.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Matthew Lloyd's 2018 draft re-ranking

Matthew Lloyd has taken on the task of re-drafting the top seven of the 2018 National Draft, based on performance to date.

www.sen.com.au

View attachment 1235235

Someone please make an argument as to why Rozee should still be ahead of Thomas...

I sure as shit can not think of one

 

[Monkey King]

Which is why I wasn’t comparing it to any other player ...

You sure were. You compared it with up to 200 other players when you said: "6.25 is top 30 in the comp. 5 is about 120th. 4.25 is about 200th."

Without standardizing the variable, it has no relevance to league rankings. If we adjusted the other 200 players' "anomolous" games as well we might see a value of 4.25 being back in the top 30.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

You sure were. You compared it with up to 200 other players when you said: "6.25 is top 30 in the comp. 5 is about 120th. 4.25 is about 200th."

Without standardizing the variable, it has no relevance to league rankings. If we adjusted the other 200 players' "anomolous" games as well we might see a value of 4.25 being back in the top 30.

I thought you meant comparison to this draft pool.

I’ve done that work, had a look at the top 30 and Wingard was the only one that had a greater than 3 point swing between their highest and next best games but had a much better baseline. Often those three point swings are a fifth higher than their next best as opposed to a third.

So they don’t have the same level of variation therefore aren’t anomalous games.

That’s enough of a sample size to suggest a fairly narrow spread is common place.

 

[Jim Levenstein]

Someone please make an argument as to why Rozee should still be ahead of Thomas...

I sure as sh*t can not think of one

Plays for the wrong team.

 

[The chorus]

Someone please make an argument as to why Rozee should still be ahead of Thomas...

I sure as sh*t can not think of one

I don't think any North supporter would consider swapping Thomas for Rozee. Thomas improved immensely this year and hopefully will continue on that upward trajectory

 

[Bulldog1954]

Butters is going to be a jet. Are port fans worried about rozee? I think he's talented bur overrated as. Wouldn't be drafted in the top 10 in a redraft

Rozee is an insane talent, but the amount of times he didn’t go hard enough in the prelim was concerning.

 

[who_let_the_dogs_out]

Rozee is an insane talent, but the amount of times he didn’t go hard enough in the prelim was concerning.

Looked nervous. Seemed to be second guessing himself. I'd back him in to do better in their next one