Analysis Redo the 2018 Draft

[port_adelaide_1870]

Rozee is an insane talent, but the amount of times he didn’t go hard enough in the prelim was concerning.

Wasn’t the only one, dare say if the midfield came to play and didn’t get smashed out the park it would had been a different story with Rozee. Leaders let him down.

 

[mattwa]

Rozee is an insane talent, but the amount of times he didn’t go hard enough in the prelim was concerning.

Think he's one of those blokes that will rip apart a game one week play 2 games in a row of elite footy then go missing for 4 weeks against the better teams. Talent is 100% there however

 

[unclechopchop2]

Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

25

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

(Gold Coast)
Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

(Carlton)
Max King

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(St Kilda)
Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

(Western Bulldogs)
Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

25

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

(North Melbourne)
Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

25

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

(Port Adelaide)
Connor Rozee

1

Connor Rozee

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

MG

189.2

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.4

3star

MG

189.2

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

3.4

5star

(Port Adelaide)

 

[Hoops]

Someone please make an argument as to why Rozee should still be ahead of Thomas...

I sure as sh*t can not think of one

or even Butters

 

[Monkey King]

I thought you meant comparison to this draft pool.

I’ve done that work, had a look at the top 30 and Wingard was the only one that had a greater than 3 point swing between their highest and next best games but had a much better baseline. Often those three point swings are a fifth higher than their next best as opposed to a third.

So they don’t have the same level of variation therefore aren’t anomalous games.

That’s enough of a sample size to suggest a fairly narrow spread is common place.

I'm not engaging in a discussion on the player. Just wanted to say that your statistical representation in that post was false.

 

[AnEmptyChair]

To me, Rozee looks like a player that needs to get back to basics a little bit. He's an outrageous talented but someone who is also trying to do the outrageous every time he goes near the ball, even when doing the simple thing is the best option.

 

[aussierulesrules]

only interesting thing is lloyd ranking ben ahead of max

not controversial but good insight seeing as he worked with both

It’s not a future projection though, it says it’s just based on their performances to date, so the fact he worked with both has nothing to do with it.

Ben basically had a one year head-start and had two injury-free years, while Max missed the best part of those two years with a knee reco and then an ankle syndesmosis, so it would be a fair indictment on Ben if he hadn’t put more runs on the board to this point.

Max was playing better/more dominant footy by the end of the season than Ben ever has though, and very comfortably outperformed him in the 2nd half of the year, so he’s closing that gap extremely quickly.

 

[Juddernaut08]

It’s not a future projection though, it says it’s just based on their performances to date, so the fact he worked with both has nothing to do with it.

Ben basically had a one year head-start and had two injury-free years, while Max missed the best part of those two years with a knee reco and then an ankle syndesmosis, so it would be a fair indictment on Ben if he hadn’t put more runs on the board to this point.

Max was playing better/more dominant footy by the end of the season than Ben ever has though, and very comfortably outperformed him in the 2nd half of the year, so he’s closing that gap extremely quickly.

Yeah could easily see max being aa in a few years and probably has a higher ceiling than ben.

If he keeps injury free and reaches his potential could certainly stake a claim as 2nd best player from the superdraft.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Happy that Kosi has come on.

Had a very good year for a first year forward. Will only get better.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Had a very good year for a first year forward. Will only get better.

27 goals for a first year player is a great return.

Hopefully we saw that natural development from here and he becomes a regular 35-45 goal a year forward.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Looked nervous. Seemed to be second guessing himself. I'd back him in to do better in their next one

Rozee was excellent in the Prelim against us in 2020 - gave our backs some real grief at times. Rozee or Thomas? Too soon to tell, both have incredible ceilings and I doubt either Port or North would want to swap out their own man.

 

[Wargreymon90]

This is looking like a bit of a super draft

 

[Red Black and Blue]

This is looking like a bit of a super draft

Not for mine. Great first round but very few stars found after.

 

[cherrypie]

This is looking like a bit of a super draft

1st round is looking great. Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, King, King, Smith, Rozee, Butters, Quaynor, Clark, Duursma and Blakey should all play 200+ with a few Brownlows and Colemans between them.

Rest of the draft looking pretty awful.

 

[Pancakes]

Walsh has quickly regressed into a vanilla midfielder with below average disposal efficiency.

Wouldn't imagine he would go top 10 in a redo, especially with guns like Butters, Rankine and Smith, and with plenty of others with more upside.

Looks like another failed #1 pick by the Blues.

 

[greatgatsby]

One of the few recent drafts we didn't nail, with Sturt on the edge of not making it (plenty of Freo fans nevertheless rate him). But we played into it bigtime with Clark, and Schultz will play 100+ games.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Walsh has quickly regressed into a vanilla midfielder with below average disposal efficiency.

Wouldn't imagine he would go top 10 in a redo, especially with guns like Butters, Rankine and Smith, and with plenty of others with more upside.

Looks like another failed #1 pick by the Blues.

Yes my username indicates bias on the topic, but Walsh is 22 coming off back surgery playing in a team that's barely looking better than North Melbourne atm. Hasn't had any pre-season the last 2 years yet still playing to an elite standard, just not his absolute best.

Easy to forget at his best he got 30 Brownlow votes, came 2nd in the MVP and was a starting mid in the AA team. At 21 years old.

Think it's a bit ridiculous to say he wouldn't go top 10 lol when there's every chance he'd still go 1.

 

[SSSSSS]

Walsh has quickly regressed into a vanilla midfielder with below average disposal efficiency.

Wouldn't imagine he would go top 10 in a redo, especially with guns like Butters, Rankine and Smith, and with plenty of others with more upside.

Looks like another failed #1 pick by the Blues.

He's playing hurt IMO. Interrupted preseason.

Blues should just put him on ice now that their season is effectively over.

 

[Lingsface]

1-Rozee
2-M King
3-Walsh
4-Butters
5-B King
6- Smith
7-Rankine
8-Wilkie
9-Atkins
10-Quaynor
11-Blakey
12-Clarke
13- Caldwell
14-Rowbottom
15- Schultz
16- Chol
17-Durrsma
18-Stocker
19- Hind
20-Chandler

 

[Lingsface]

lukousis at number 10 sorry

 

[Schauermann]

King at 6 is fine for me.

Trading 6 for Hogan not so much...

PS Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

would be a decent fit to our current list as well.

 

[South of the Yarra]

Walsh no where near the top 5. Is an accumulator who has no impact on games.

 

[Pocket Terrace]

1-Rozee
2-M King
3-Walsh
4-Butters
5-B King
6-Atkins
7-Rankine
8-Wilkie
9-Atkins
10-Quaynor
11-Blakey
12-Clarke
13- Caldwell
14-Rowbottom
15- Schultz
16- Chol
17-Durrsma
18-Stocker
19- Hind
20-Chandler

I didn’t realise the Atkins twins are still so young. I assume you’ve got Simon at 6 and Paul at 9 based on what they’ve achieved so far.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Walsh no where near the top 5. Is an accumulator who has no impact on games.

And who's in your top 5?

 

[South of the Yarra]

And who's in your top 5?

Not Walsh