Player Watch Reef McInnes

[Apex36]

Henry good Chance of doing that

Henry is playing on our weakest line and hasn’t had the injury and subsequent fitness issues Reef has had.

Having said that, Reef is a genuine utility, so a good run with injury and some decent fitness built up could see him debut in the forward line later on.

 

[Scodog10]

Henry good Chance of doing that

Henry didn’t have an injury profile, didn’t test horribly for endurance and isn’t cracking our midfield.

No player, no matter how talented, could overcome the roadblocks Reef has had over the past 2 years to play early. Which brings us back to the issue of him supposedly not being, in your words, a high end talent. I don’t get why anyone would make that call on him at this stage.

I’m happy with it. A very high end talent is top 3 in their draft year when it’s all said and done. I rate what McInnes has to offer, but I’m not optimistic enough to consider that a possibility. I’m sure you’ll again bounce back with a “how could you know you’ve never seen him play?” to which I’d say I don’t need my views to be validated by Big Footy posters. They are what they are.

Feel free to bump this in ten years time when he’s a 200 game, Brownlow medal winning, premiership player and captain

 

[Billys Back]

Are we arguing round 1 debut or talent here?
Many of the game’s superstars were selected outside the top 3.
I look at Fyfe who was a very scrawny pick 20 who had his debut in round 5 and has not looked back.
Cripps is another (although a little fuller)
So, being able to judge a kid’s talent when you haven’t seen or monitored him is at best guesswork. Throw in not seeing his development over the past 12 months with little to no footy played and you can’t possibly have any idea.
So, let’s give the kids a chance because there doesn’t seem to be many educated guesses on talent at the moment.

 

[Apex36]

Henry didn’t have an injury profile, didn’t test horribly for endurance and isn’t cracking our midfield.



I’m happy with it. A very high end talent is top 3 in their draft year when it’s all said and done. I rate what McInnes has to offer, but I’m not optimistic enough to consider that a possibility. I’m sure you’ll again bounce back with a “how could you know you’ve never seen him play?” to which I’d say I don’t need my views to be validated by Big Footy posters. They are what they are.

Normally we’re on the same page, and under normal circumstances I’d probably agree with you on this too, but given the circumstances of last year I can’t get around the notion of saying definitively that any draftee is/isn’t a top end talent. We’re going around in circles now, so I’ll leave it by saying it’s going to be interesting watching this years crop develop.

Feel free to bump this in ten years time when he’s a 200 game, Brownlow medal winning, premiership player and captain

I think you and I both know I’m way too lazy to do that.

 

[Gone Critical]

Are we arguing round 1 debut or talent here?
Many of the game’s superstars were selected outside the top 3.
I look at Fyfe who was a very scrawny pick 20 who had his debut in round 5 and has not looked back.
Cripps is another (although a little fuller)
So, being able to judge a kid’s talent when you haven’t seen or monitored him is at best guesswork. Throw in not seeing his development over the past 12 months with little to no footy played and you can’t possibly have any idea.
So, let’s give the kids a chance because there doesn’t seem to be many educated guesses on talent at the moment.

Thats very true and we cant speak of specific players til they have a chance to show what they can do.

Using the draft pick doesn't speak to the individual but it does give a guide to the history of that pick and give an idea of whats reasonable to expect.

The way I look at it is if we took pick 23, Reefs pick, 7 out of the 37 taken at that pick have managed 100 games or more. 14 have played 0-9 games although the last few picks havent had their chance yet. 13 of the 37 passed 50 games. Average games played overall is 55

The 100 games plus players are good. Michael Long, Drew Pertrie, David Zaharakis, Matt Crouch, Tom Lonergan, Cam Guthrie and Paul Stewart.

Conclusion History of pick 23 says we have roughly 1-4 or 1-5 chance of securing a 100 game plus player and a lot of the ones who do that can be really good. However there is a greater chance a kid at pick 23 doesnt have a substantial career and many have hardly any career. If pick 23 ends up as good as Tom Phillips thats a win.

If we look at pick 17-44 range where our 6 draftees come from 1-2 100+ players will be a pass and will be great outcome if one turns into a star like the ones mentioned. 3+ 100 gamers would be outstanding.

For contrast pick 1 averages 152 games. 24 have made 100games and the last 6 who havent had the chance to reach that will almost certainly do so.

You can make predictions based on the draft picks, Clubs do it all the time in their deliberations. It doesnt tell us about Reef the individual and we hope he outperforms the pick but it is instructive and helps realistic assessment

Thats my take anyway

 

[jackcass]

Henry is playing on our weakest line and hasn’t had the injury and subsequent fitness issues Reef has had.

Having said that, Reef is a genuine utility, so a good run with injury and some decent fitness built up could see him debut in the forward line later on.

That's it for me. If he hadn't had the injuries I'd see him more as competing with Henry, Thomas and Ruscoe for a F50 spot than trying to squeeze into the midfield at this stage. He's shown he's more than capable in that role.

 

[jackcass]

Henry didn’t have an injury profile, didn’t test horribly for endurance and isn’t cracking our midfield.



I’m happy with it. A very high end talent is top 3 in their draft year when it’s all said and done. I rate what McInnes has to offer, but I’m not optimistic enough to consider that a possibility. I’m sure you’ll again bounce back with a “how could you know you’ve never seen him play?” to which I’d say I don’t need my views to be validated by Big Footy posters. They are what they are.

Feel free to bump this in ten years time when he’s a 200 game, Brownlow medal winning, premiership player and captain

That's a pretty arbitrary line in the sand. McInnes was touted as a top 5 prospect leading into the 2020 season. Who knows how it would have turned out if CV19 hadn't interfered.

 

[sr36]

A very high end talent is top 3 in their draft year when it’s all said and done. I rate what McInnes has to offer, but I’m not

Henry didn’t have an injury profile, didn’t test horribly for endurance and isn’t cracking our midfield.



I’m happy with it. A very high end talent is top 3 in their draft year when it’s all said and done. I rate what McInnes has to offer, but I’m not optimistic enough to consider that a possibility. I’m sure you’ll again bounce back with a “how could you know you’ve never seen him play?” to which I’d say I don’t need my views to be validated by Big Footy posters. They are what they are.

Feel free to bump this in ten years time when he’s a 200 game, Brownlow medal winning, premiership player and captain

Can we bump it now for all the top end Brownlow winning talent that didn't go top 3 in their draft. Of all the Brownlow winners, Judd, Cotchin, Martin and Cooney are the only one's who went top 3. Draft choice is a pretty good indicator of likelihood to have an AFL career. But it hasn't been great for picking the blokes who become absolute stars of the game.

I agree with your main point though that Reef is unlikely to play early.

 

[Jen2310]

That's a pretty arbitrary line in the sand. McInnes was touted as a top 5 prospect leading into the 2020 season. Who knows how it would have turned out if CV19 hadn't interfered.

We should count our blessings.

A bid would have cost us a lot more than it did.

 

[sr36]

We should count our blessings.

A bid would have cost us a lot more than it did.

It may have, but it also may have cost us less.

 

[loki04]

If you draft a kid in the top 5, you’re probably forced to playing them early (particularly if they aren’t KPP) to satisfy members.

Would argue top 10, not forced but certainly pressured to show you got the pick "right".

 

[Gone Critical]

That's a pretty arbitrary line in the sand. McInnes was touted as a top 5 prospect leading into the 2020 season. Who knows how it would have turned out if CV19 hadn't interfered.

Click baits and BF speculation. A few interstate players may have pushed up a little on what they got to do 2020 but the draft order is what it is. If there was any truth to clubs having Reef top 5 or even 10 he would have been bid on earlier. His rating is mid 20’s by consensus of the recruiters and that is the most accurate info we have at this point.

 

[jackcass]

Click baits and BF speculation. A few interstate players may have pushed up a little on what they got to do 2020 but the draft order is what it is. If there was any truth to clubs having Reef top 5 or even 10 he would have been bid on earlier. His rating is mid 20’s by consensus of the recruiters and that is the most accurate info we have at this point.

Hardly. These kids are watched closely through their U15's and U16's years. Reef was very highly rated but starved of midfield opportunity until the State games when Rowell and Anderson et al were called for Vic Metro duties. He shone through that opportunity as well.

Who knows where teams had him ranked going into the draft but where these kids go is just as often dictated by who has what picks, and what their needs are. Doggies had 1 pick before Reef, committed it to JUH, Crows 2 picks, took a KPP and a local mid, Hawks 1 pick took a KPP, GCS 1 pick and took the kid widely ranked the best mid available who happened to slip to 7 due to injury. That Hine has said they were prepared to match a bid in the top 10 says we rated him pretty highly.

Baldwin another still highly rated after 1 knee, totally overlooked after 2.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

True though Rantall is NOT a Wingman

I think he'll start there in the seniors if he makes it.

His endurance and noted skills (seemingly absent this preseason), together with his apparent midfield scope, make him an ideal wing candidate early on.

 

[Gone Critical]

Can we bump it now for all the top end Brownlow winning talent that didn't go top 3 in their draft. Of all the Brownlow winners, Judd, Cotchin, Martin and Cooney are the only one's who went top 3. Draft choice is a pretty good indicator of likelihood to have an AFL career. But it hasn't been great for picking the blokes who become absolute stars of the game.

I agree with your main point though that Reef is unlikely to play early.

Not correct. If you want to get any statistical feel for the Brownlow and draft position looking just at a winner won’t tell you anything. Too many variables

If you look at career votes, which is the best tool we have to assess this question, there is a pretty clear correlation between draft position and career votes.

Draft guru has figures for 16 drafts (not sure of years) with these results
Pick 1 63 votes
Pick 2 43 votes
Pick 3-5 36 votes
Pick 6-10 18 votes
Pick 11-20 13 votes
Pick 21-30. 7 votes
etc etc

Same correlations apply to AA jumpers, time to 50 games, time to 100 games etc.

Nothing is absolute and there will be plenty of exceptions but draft order clearly correlates with all the markers of good players.

 

[Apex36]

Click baits and BF speculation. A few interstate players may have pushed up a little on what they got to do 2020 but the draft order is what it is. If there was any truth to clubs having Reef top 5 or even 10 he would have been bid on earlier. His rating is mid 20’s by consensus of the recruiters and that is the most accurate info we have at this point.

The idea that a players eventual draft number represents some sort of consensus of recruiters is nonsense. Stories come out all the time after the draft about kids who were rated really highly by a club/s who slipped because another kid who they didn’t expect to be there was available. Bianco last year was drafted in the 50’s. Does that represent a consensus? Not according to Scout on EBW last year, who’s club was frantically trying to trade back in to the draft from about pick 25 onwards so they could grab him. It was reported that Riccardi was 30 on GWS’ board. He didn’t get picked until the 50’s because they couldn’t trade in to the draft till that point. There are tonnes of stories about kids who were told by certain clubs they’d be selected early at pick x, only to be overlooked and not grabbed until way later. We had Tom Langdon rated at pick 19 in his draft year and we got him at 60-something.

There are so many variables on draft night that there’s no way you could ever say that a player was a consensus pick outside of players like JUH that pretty much every recruiterin the league publicly declared was the best player.

 

[Gone Critical]

Hardly. These kids are watched closely through their U15's and U16's years. Reef was very highly rated but starved of midfield opportunity until the State games when Rowell and Anderson et al were called for Vic Metro duties. He shone through that opportunity as well.

Who knows where teams had him ranked going into the draft but where these kids go is just as often dictated by who has what picks, and what their needs are. Doggies had 1 pick before Reef, committed it to JUH, Crows 2 picks, took a KPP and a local mid, Hawks 1 pick took a KPP, GCS 1 pick and took the kid widely ranked the best mid available who happened to slip to 7 due to injury. That Hine has said they were prepared to match a bid in the top 10 says we rated him pretty highly.

Baldwin another still highly rated after 1 knee, totally overlooked after 2.

I would reckon if you go to other teams
boards they will have similar stories for their draftees. Little tit bits from the club about how highly they rated them, a phantom or draft expert that had them higher, a little known fact that other clubs overlooked etc

Doesn’t matter because no one can sift through that and know what’s true. Only real truth we have for now is the draft position. Reefs pick 23, that’s where realistic expectation should lie.

I am happy if people dream of better , I do, but that’s just hope

 

[Gone Critical]

The idea that a players eventual draft number represents some sort of consensus of recruiters is nonsense. Stories come out all the time after the draft about kids who were rated really highly by a club/s who slipped because another kid who they didn’t expect to be there was available. Bianco last year was drafted in the 50’s. Does that represent a consensus? Not according to Scout on EBW last year, who’s club was frantically trying to trade back in to the draft from about pick 25 onwards so they could grab him. It was reported that Riccardi was 30 on GWS’ board. He didn’t get picked until the 50’s because they couldn’t trade in to the draft till that point. There are tonnes of stories about kids who were told by certain clubs they’d be selected early at pick x, only to be overlooked and not grabbed until way later. We had Tom Langdon rated at pick 19 in his draft year and we got him at 60-something.

There are so many variables on draft night that there’s no way you could ever say that a player was a consensus pick outside of players like JUH that pretty much every recruiterin the league publicly declared was the best player.

Absolutely agree and I have said that a few times above. There are a stack of exceptions but overall there is still consensus. Individual cases are never going to answer the question and any claims based on overall figures have a big* but it’s the only real data we have.

The consensus of pick numbers if you don’t like calling it the consensus of recruiters still strongly correlates with all the positive player qualities. It should if the recruiters are any good.

Exceptions accepted.

 

[Gone Critical]

Additionally the consensus is much stronger in the top 10 than anywhere else in the draft. Draft predictions by all the experts go very close to actual top 10s most years. The best kids stand out more and are easier to pick. Mega talents.

 

[jonmacTrag]

Additionally the consensus is much stronger in the top 10 than anywhere else in the draft. Draft predictions by all the experts go very close to actual top 10s most years. The best kids stand out more and are easier to pick. Mega talents.

This year is somewhat of an exception for the Victorian lads who basically missed a year - and the most important year of their pre-career.

Very likely to be a few surprises - but with so little info who knows where the surprises will come.

 

[Billys Back]

This year is somewhat of an exception for the Victorian lads who basically missed a year - and the most important year of their pre-career.

Very likely to be a few surprises - but with so little info who knows where the surprises will come.

That’s what I’m looking forward to seeing. That is, which Victorian kids really develop in 2021.
It may be a kid picked in the 40s may have rocketed up the rankings if he had played in 2020.
A consensus Top 10 end of 2021 will be interesting to put together against the 2020 draft.

 

[jonmacTrag]

That’s what I’m looking forward to seeing. That is, which Victorian kids really develop in 2021.
It may be a kid picked in the 40s may have rocketed up the rankings if he had played in 2020.
A consensus Top 10 end of 2021 will be interesting to put together against the 2020 draft.

As a few have said the draft order is a pretty good indicator - but they forget that the draft order has been warped by the decimation of the lower level comps.

 

[Kappa]

Langdon played every game in hsi debut year from a pick in the 60s. Cripps and Neale weren't considered top 5 pick on talent. Once a bloke enters the AFL the pick is irrelevant, it's just an indicator of how clubs viewed the player's talent at the final point of their junior career. If done a year earlier, the ordering of "talent" would be very different. If done a year later it would be different again.

Yep, as I already said it's entirely possible if you have a strong preseason behind you. However Reef is coming off a long term back stress fracture and the resulting poor endurance, he doesn't have the talent to simply walk into the round 1 team with all those things going against him.

 

[Gone Critical]

This year is somewhat of an exception for the Victorian lads who basically missed a year - and the most important year of their pre-career.

Very likely to be a few surprises - but with so little info who knows where the surprises will come.

Agree with that. Makes our strategy have an even bigger range of possibilities. If we pull it off and Hine nails it we will be in a great position.

The flip side is it might send us down for a long while. For everyone that is an unknown improver because they couldnt display their move up the scale will be one that hid their slide. Just hope we got the ladders not the snakes.

 

[jonmacTrag]

Agree with that. Makes our strategy have an even bigger range of possibilities. If we pull it off and Hine nails it we will be in a great position.

The flip side is it might send us down for a long while. For everyone that is an unknown improver because they couldnt display their move up the scale will be one that hid their slide. Just hope we got the ladders not the snakes.

Very much a lucky dip year in some ways. On the plus side for our recruiting strategy - Hine purportedly includes work ethic and general attitude fairly highly in his sought after qualities.
In this way even if a talent doesn't nova the work ethic may pull them trough to make them effective players.