Bulldogs more likely to drop a few games as the season goes on than Geelong IMO, looking at each of their respective draws. Overtaking one of Brissy/WB is our best bet, and I wouldn't be surprised if we have to beat Brissy in Brisbane in round 23 to take their spot.
Was thinking similar. Basically for top-4 we really need to win 8 out of 9 (leaving us 16-6 with likely the worst percentage of teams with 64 points).
We play all of Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney and WB in the run home - so have the chance to add to their loss column (we need 3 of the 7 teams above us to end up on 15-7 in my above scenario).
It's quite unlikely - but that said, so is us winning 8 from 9, and so was us losing to Saints and Bombers. The teams above us (bar Melbourne and Sydney) haven't had their 'surprise losses' as yet - or not to the degree we have. Maybe they don't - but if they do we need to be set up to pounce.