Do you have statistics to back up your claim? because the graphs I've seen previously contradict you.To your comment however, you're correct, to a point. The absolute pointy end of the draft - picks 1-3 and perhaps 1-5, give you a strong probability differentiator - ie. 200 games and excess return on investment compared with peers taken after. However, you’re as likely to pick a 100 game player with pick 20 as you are pick 6 and their overall career impact will be close on par. That’s why we see clubs trading for more picks across the first two rounds of the draft than those chasing single top ten picks.