Reid - "Crows in middle of a 4 year rebuild."

Remove this Banner Ad

Vhaluus

Brownlow Medallist
May 13, 2016
12,285
13,532
AFL Club
Adelaide
To your comment however, you're correct, to a point. The absolute pointy end of the draft - picks 1-3 and perhaps 1-5, give you a strong probability differentiator - ie. 200 games and excess return on investment compared with peers taken after. However, you’re as likely to pick a 100 game player with pick 20 as you are pick 6 and their overall career impact will be close on par. That’s why we see clubs trading for more picks across the first two rounds of the draft than those chasing single top ten picks.
Do you have statistics to back up your claim? because the graphs I've seen previously contradict you.
 

ABAB

Premiership Player
Apr 3, 2018
4,351
2,388
AFL Club
Adelaide
Just on this, these boards do, by and large, over value draft picks. Too many posters on here see players like they do cars, once drafted they quickly depreciate in value and if they're not superstars within 2 years then they're a bust. These boards have made fools of a lot of people but the inconsequential nature of their remarks mean too many just keep throwing darts.

To your comment however, you're correct, to a point. The absolute pointy end of the draft - picks 1-3 and perhaps 1-5, give you a strong probability differentiator - ie. 200 games and excess return on investment compared with peers taken after. However, you’re as likely to pick a 100 game player with pick 20 as you are pick 6 and their overall career impact will be close on par. That’s why we see clubs trading for more picks across the first two rounds of the draft than those chasing single top ten picks.

The biggest question we have this year is on Crouch. He will be 27 next season and not yet at 100 games. He'd have to play most every game for the next five years to become a 200 game player at which point he's 32-33 and output has dropped. When Brad's career is ending, a likely pick 2 this year will be coming into their prime with a full further likely 5 years ahead of them (minimum). That's what probability suggests. We should allow Crouch to walk if we believe we have enough other senior capacity to protect a young list. Carlton and Melbourne are both cautionary tales with killing high drafted picks due to lack of senior mentorship and development. Nothing makes a top 5 draft pick an outlier quicker than lowering the mean age and games too far.
But don't forget most of these high picks have gone to clubs that have been bottom of the ladder for a long time which mean they always had poor player development initial base when they drafted these top pick players, we are actually very good at developing players and we've actually been a very strong club before the well known camp happened, provided this has really been resolved internally, we will be back there soon than most think and really in the middle of a 4 year rebuild.
 

GameofSloanes

Premiership Player
Oct 20, 2015
4,718
6,983
In a Galaxy Far, Far Away
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool
Just on this, these boards do, by and large, over value draft picks. Too many posters on here see players like they do cars, once drafted they quickly depreciate in value and if they're not superstars within 2 years then they're a bust. These boards have made fools of a lot of people but the inconsequential nature of their remarks mean too many just keep throwing darts.

To your comment however, you're correct, to a point. The absolute pointy end of the draft - picks 1-3 and perhaps 1-5, give you a strong probability differentiator - ie. 200 games and excess return on investment compared with peers taken after. However, you’re as likely to pick a 100 game player with pick 20 as you are pick 6 and their overall career impact will be close on par. That’s why we see clubs trading for more picks across the first two rounds of the draft than those chasing single top ten picks.

The biggest question we have this year is on Crouch. He will be 27 next season and not yet at 100 games. He'd have to play most every game for the next five years to become a 200 game player at which point he's 32-33 and output has dropped. When Brad's career is ending, a likely pick 2 this year will be coming into their prime with a full further likely 5 years ahead of them (minimum). That's what probability suggests. We should allow Crouch to walk if we believe we have enough other senior capacity to protect a young list. Carlton and Melbourne are both cautionary tales with killing high drafted picks due to lack of senior mentorship and development. Nothing makes a top 5 draft pick an outlier quicker than lowering the mean age and games too far.
If we let crouch go and have a midfield of mostly kids not only will they get mostly smashed like the first part of this season, but the constant losing will make some want to leave. Then we get stuck in a perpetual cycle of being awful like Carlton and Melbourne.
Also crouch has said he wants to stay. What message will it send to the kids if we push him out. They'll see the club doesn't give a sh*t about them and sees them as commodities, so why would they give a sh*t about us or want to stay here?
If there was an absolute gun at pick 2, Matt rowell type it could be a different conversation, but with a lack of exposed form, lack of elite players and the reasons above i don't think letting him go is worth it.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Thegibbsgamble

I beg to meg
Oct 28, 2017
5,524
3,158
AFL Club
Adelaide

8​
The scary thing, is that Im not even sure the Crows have hit rock bottom yet. Its going to get a lot lot worse, before it gets better.
Covid has been good to the sa clubs. But also a double edged sword.

Wed be getting 100 point drubbings on the road. The kids getting injuries as a result. Our senior players will get more. Longlivity through lack of travel and hammering. Next year the victorian teams Older players will feel the Pinch from thier covid bubbles.
We've been able to get more education and standards into our young players. We might of dodged a bullet, as long as the boys club is disbanded. We should look to Finnish 10th next year. If it wasn't for covid, 12th would be an achievement.

Port have been looking for a coach that can take them the Next level. Ross lyon would of worked under the right circumstances. They were never going anywhere spectacular under hinckley , he was all about system. They were never going down the new rookie coach path. Covid has seen competition drop away and they gain a home ground advantage. They get thier 4th minor premiership and hinklsy over achieves. Probably go all the way now. Double edged cause they won't replace him when someone suitable becomes willing and available. They probably will rebound the other way next year or after.
 

jenny61_99

Premium Platinum
Feb 22, 2006
55,054
45,858
Brisbane
AFL Club
Adelaide

8​


Covid has been good to the sa clubs. But also a double edged sword.

Wed be getting 100 point drubbings on the road. The kids getting injuries as a result. Our senior players will get more. Longlivity through lack of travel and hammering. Next year the victorian teams Older players will feel the Pinch from thier covid bubbles.
We've been able to get more education and standards into our young players. We might of dodged a bullet, as long as the boys club is disbanded. We should look to Finnish 10th next year. If it wasn't for covid, 12th would be an achievement.

Port have been looking for a coach that can take them the Next level. Ross lyon would of worked under the right circumstances. They were never going anywhere spectacular under hinckley , he was all about system. They were never going down the new rookie coach path. Covid has seen competition drop away and they gain a home ground advantage. They get thier 4th minor premiership and hinklsy over achieves. Probably go all the way now. Double edged cause they won't replace him when someone suitable becomes willing and available. They probably will rebound the other way next year or after.
I think you posted this on the wrong board. Your board (PORT) is that way.
 

Sanders

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 1, 2012
27,466
37,521
AFL Club
Adelaide
I know we like to bash Jenkins on this board, but actually go back and look at the facts. He was averaging over 40 goals a game while Tex was averaging over 50. He was also an important relief ruck, the type everyone is complaining we don't have now. You can argue the length was a year too long, but when you are where we were then, you run the risk on it.

The same thing will happen with Grundy getting 7 years...he will be 32 or 33 during his last year -> how do you think that will go?

View attachment 908703
ha ha ha
 

adelaidecrows

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 6, 2010
12,857
12,503
Wasleys
AFL Club
Adelaide
Jenkins was good until teams found a way to block the cheap Joe the goose goals then he was stuffed. His ruck work for a big guy was average. Himmelberg is already better in that department. It is unfair to write off his time at afc as poor as I do think he was a good player just was never worth the big dollars we paid.

On VOG-L09 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

MarcusP2

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2009
8,877
6,213
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Zona Cardinals, Yankees
Jenkins was good until teams found a way to block the cheap Joe the goose goals then he was stuffed. His ruck work for a big guy was average. Himmelberg is already better in that department. It is unfair to write off his time at afc as poor as I do think he was a good player just was never worth the big dollars we paid.

On VOG-L09 using BigFooty.com mobile app
My opinion was that Jenkins was excellent at taking advantage of speed mismatches on defenders his size (e.g. getting back to goal quickly and/or getting one on ones against smaller players he could jump over). He was rarely any good against defenders of comparable size and ability (except for one notable game when he took apart Rance, one of the biggest sources of my frustration with him), and when our ball movement dried up so did his scoring ability because he wasn't good on the lead or contested marks.

Had a decent leg and some good highlights.
 

adelaidecrows

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 6, 2010
12,857
12,503
Wasleys
AFL Club
Adelaide
My opinion was that Jenkins was excellent at taking advantage of speed mismatches on defenders his size (e.g. getting back to goal quickly and/or getting one on ones against smaller players he could jump over). He was rarely any good against defenders of comparable size and ability (except for one notable game when he took apart Rance, one of the biggest sources of my frustration with him), and when our ball movement dried up so did his scoring ability because he wasn't good on the lead or contested marks.

Had a decent leg and some good highlights.
He never used his size which was frustrating. Always wanted to play like a small player. As I said he was a good player just not worth the big bucks. The crows should have let him go.

On VOG-L09 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

1970crow

Hall of Famer
Jun 7, 2011
35,935
37,396
Port MacDonnell yay!!!
AFL Club
Adelaide
Definitely a bullshit statement. That said, to steal a phrase that has caused a lot of pain and misery for an unnamed club, there are certainly some green shoots.

A long way to go though before we're through these woods though.
It really wasn't. He said that most rebuilds require 4 years of going to the draft with good picks and that we're halfway there in that regard. Those draft picks causing us to climb up the ladder is a different process and one he was not speaking to.
 

ShadeyP

Premiership Player
Jul 1, 2017
4,408
5,329
AFL Club
Adelaide
If we let crouch go and have a midfield of mostly kids not only will they get mostly smashed like the first part of this season, but the constant losing will make some want to leave. Then we get stuck in a perpetual cycle of being awful like Carlton and Melbourne.
Also crouch has said he wants to stay. What message will it send to the kids if we push him out. They'll see the club doesn't give a sh*t about them and sees them as commodities, so why would they give a sh*t about us or want to stay here?
If there was an absolute gun at pick 2, Matt rowell type it could be a different conversation, but with a lack of exposed form, lack of elite players and the reasons above i don't think letting him go is worth it.
Uggghhhhh , no we will not !!

There will still be M.Crouch , Laird , Keays , Sloane and most likely a Hately , Caldwell or Brodie .

The counter argument is if we sign Brad long term we are locking one of our younger midfielders out of a spot to develop and let's not get carried away with the last 3 weeks performance .

If we were to receive a pick at 2 or 3 we should absolutely take it and bank the $$ we would be spending on Brad so that we can build some flexibility in our cap spend . Gibbs , Walker and likely Lynch will be off the books post 2021 so we should focus on developing our young core next season , sign up the kids we want to keep and look to land a stud 22-25 yr old for season 2022 instead of committing large money to someone who whilst very good has not put together 2 seasons in a row his whole career .

This might appear cold but we need to make these calls .
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Grooster24

Club Legend
May 27, 2015
2,103
3,539
Dlusional
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood
Article in the paper today with an interview of Chapman about the rebuild. I think he commented about how it was communicated... 🤷🏻‍♂️ Didn't really read it but notice how this weasel comes out into the public only after we've won 3 in a row..? We have no strong leaders in Chapman and Fagan if they only front the public/media in good times.
 

Thetrader15

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 16, 2015
18,537
21,351
AFL Club
Adelaide
Uggghhhhh , no we will not !!

There will still be M.Crouch , Laird , Keays , Sloane and most likely a Hately , Caldwell or Brodie .

The counter argument is if we sign Brad long term we are locking one of our younger midfielders out of a spot to develop and let's not get carried away with the last 3 weeks performance .

If we were to receive a pick at 2 or 3 we should absolutely take it and bank the $$ we would be spending on Brad so that we can build some flexibility in our cap spend . Gibbs , Walker and likely Lynch will be off the books post 2021 so we should focus on developing our young core next season , sign up the kids we want to keep and look to land a stud 22-25 yr old for season 2022 instead of committing large money to someone who whilst very good has not put together 2 seasons in a row his whole career .

This might appear cold but we need to make these calls .
Correct. Burton, Wingard and Polec all wanted to stay at their clubs in 2018, but I don't hear the negative things about Hawks or Port culture at the moment.
 

1970crow

Hall of Famer
Jun 7, 2011
35,935
37,396
Port MacDonnell yay!!!
AFL Club
Adelaide
If we let crouch go and have a midfield of mostly kids not only will they get mostly smashed like the first part of this season, but the constant losing will make some want to leave. Then we get stuck in a perpetual cycle of being awful like Carlton and Melbourne.
Also crouch has said he wants to stay. What message will it send to the kids if we push him out. They'll see the club doesn't give a sh*t about them and sees them as commodities, so why would they give a sh*t about us or want to stay here?
If there was an absolute gun at pick 2, Matt rowell type it could be a different conversation, but with a lack of exposed form, lack of elite players and the reasons above i don't think letting him go is worth it.
Carlton and Melbourne were in that cycle because they're awful clubs. West Coast traded out Judd, they've finished near bottom a couple of times, they didn't become awful. Good clubs don't, they drop and return. Letting Crouch go and being a lesser side isn't what will lead to us having a decade like Carlton or Melbourne. Being a sh*t stain of a club leads to that. That's what we need to avoid.

You're crazy if you think the players don't know what's going on with Crouch. He's seeking a high priced, long term deal. They know it as much as you and I do. The club and Brad are doing the exact right thing. His body probably only warrants a high priced, 3 year triggered deal. If he wants 5, he's getting those offers coming through based on that and we get to match if we choose. There's nothing wrong with this from either side of the equation and nearly every player will be doing this to some extent each time their own contract is up. Brad is my favourite of the older players and the one I'd choose to rebuild around. But a top 3 pick is a pursuasive argument against my view.
 

Thetrader15

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 16, 2015
18,537
21,351
AFL Club
Adelaide
My opinion was that Jenkins was excellent at taking advantage of speed mismatches on defenders his size (e.g. getting back to goal quickly and/or getting one on ones against smaller players he could jump over). He was rarely any good against defenders of comparable size and ability (except for one notable game when he took apart Rance, one of the biggest sources of my frustration with him), and when our ball movement dried up so did his scoring ability because he wasn't good on the lead or contested marks.

Had a decent leg and some good highlights.
Still averaged 2 goals a game for us last year. His on field stuff was generally solid the last few years, even if he didn't play the role a lot here would have liked.

Off field though...
 

1970crow

Hall of Famer
Jun 7, 2011
35,935
37,396
Port MacDonnell yay!!!
AFL Club
Adelaide
My opinion was that Jenkins was excellent at taking advantage of speed mismatches on defenders his size (e.g. getting back to goal quickly and/or getting one on ones against smaller players he could jump over). He was rarely any good against defenders of comparable size and ability (except for one notable game when he took apart Rance, one of the biggest sources of my frustration with him), and when our ball movement dried up so did his scoring ability because he wasn't good on the lead or contested marks.

Had a decent leg and some good highlights.
Ironically, that great game against Rance he played like a key forward. In front, attack the contest, was handy. My lasting impression of him is him standing side by side with his opponent about 25m ahead of the contest. One of our players take possession and JJ quickly turns and bolts towards goal. The around the corner hack goes about 30m into his opponent's chest. JJ's momentum is still towards our goal as his opponent is launching step 1 of their counter-attack. But that's pretty much what we asked for from him, you get the player that that the coaches deserve.
 

LC40

Club Legend
Oct 14, 2008
2,093
2,512
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Uggghhhhh , no we will not !!

Gibbs , Walker and likely Lynch will be off the books post 2021 so we should focus on developing our young core next season , sign up the kids we want to keep and look to land a stud 22-25 yr old for season 2022 instead of committing large money to someone who whilst very good has not put together 2 seasons in a row his whole career .
I read this suggestion a lot on here.
"Sign a stud 22-25yr old for season ...," or drafting is for building a list and trading is to add the missing pieces.
Well our history of attracting stud recruits is not great.
We find it extremely hard to attract the 'stud' recruit to our club.
The 'why' has been debated ad nauseam on this forum.
Over our 30 year history we have signed maybe 2-3 genuine 'stud' players from other teams that become star players for us as well.
(I'm not talking about attracting end of their career recruits like Gibbs and Carey but the 22-25 year you mention.)

It's a common suggestion to make but one we've found hard to implement.
 

DJ75

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 4, 2004
7,289
11,986
on planet Crow
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
36ers
If we let crouch go and have a midfield of mostly kids not only will they get mostly smashed like the first part of this season, but the constant losing will make some want to leave. Then we get stuck in a perpetual cycle of being awful like Carlton and Melbourne.
Also crouch has said he wants to stay. What message will it send to the kids if we push him out. They'll see the club doesn't give a sh*t about them and sees them as commodities, so why would they give a sh*t about us or want to stay here?
If there was an absolute gun at pick 2, Matt rowell type it could be a different conversation, but with a lack of exposed form, lack of elite players and the reasons above i don't think letting him go is worth it.
What are you talking about?? If we let B Crouch go, we WON'T have a midfield of kids. We will still have M Crouch, Sloane, Laird, Smith etc... Losing one player doesn't suddenly decimate the midfield.
What message does it send to the kids? It says we are going somewhere. That we have a plan and that THEY are part of the plan. Maybe if they see we are building for success for them, they would actually want to stay. Keeping B Crouch is the type of decision that has kept us being mediocre for 20+ years.
We nee to build for the future. Keeping B Crouch does nothing to help that.
 

Interloperer

Club Legend
Aug 5, 2013
1,016
960
AFL Club
Adelaide
Jenkins was good until teams found a way to block the cheap Joe the goose goals then he was stuffed. His ruck work for a big guy was average. Himmelberg is already better in that department. It is unfair to write off his time at afc as poor as I do think he was a good player just was never worth the big dollars we paid.

On VOG-L09 using BigFooty.com mobile app
You're right. when he was flying, he scored a ton of easy goals and averaged around 2 goals a game.

Then coaches wised up and cut out the easy goals, his form dried up and he only averaged around 2 goals a game.
 

Crow Envy

Club Legend
Dec 2, 2006
2,545
1,340
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood
What are you talking about?? If we let B Crouch go, we WON'T have a midfield of kids. We will still have M Crouch, Sloane, Laird, Smith etc... Losing one player doesn't suddenly decimate the midfield.
What message does it send to the kids? It says we are going somewhere. That we have a plan and that THEY are part of the plan. Maybe if they see we are building for success for them, they would actually want to stay. Keeping B Crouch is the type of decision that has kept us being mediocre for 20+ years.
We nee to build for the future. Keeping B Crouch does nothing to help that.
Yep. Already Shoenberg can’t get a gig in the guts but next year he will be chomping at the bit.

Then throw in Jones, McHenry and our new draftees. If we use pick 1 or 2 on a mid, they just have to play.

We also need to find a spot for Milera when he returns. We don’t need him off half back and there isn’t a spot for him there. The wings could be covered with Hamill, Jones and Sholl.

Finally if the rumours are true and we are into Hately, he needs a run in the middle.
 

DJ75

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 4, 2004
7,289
11,986
on planet Crow
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
36ers
Yep. Already Shoenberg can’t get a gig in the guts but next year he will be chomping at the bit.

Then throw in Jones, McHenry and our new draftees. If we use pick 1 or 2 on a mid, they just have to play.

We also need to find a spot for Milera when he returns. We don’t need him off half back and there isn’t a spot for him there. The wings could be covered with Hamill, Jones and Sholl.

Finally if the rumours are true and we are into Hately, he needs a run in the middle.
Yep. Have to create room somewhere. The big question is going to be where does Sloane play? Unless his gut running returns, you would have to think he moves out of the midfield.
Does he go to half back? Probably not. There are other players I would want there - Smith, Doedee, Hamill, Milera, Sholl, MacPherson etc...
Does he go to half forward? I guess if Lynch was traded he could otherwise there are probably other player you want there - Stengle, McAdam, McHenry, Jones, Davis, Worrell, Schoenberg...

It really is going to be difficult for him and will have a big impact on what opportunities our younger guys get.
 

Sanders

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 1, 2012
27,466
37,521
AFL Club
Adelaide
Jenkins was good until teams found a way to block the cheap Joe the goose goals then he was stuffed. His ruck work for a big guy was average. Himmelberg is already better in that department. It is unfair to write off his time at afc as poor as I do think he was a good player just was never worth the big dollars we paid.

On VOG-L09 using BigFooty.com mobile app
was never good
 

MRB37

Brownlow Medallist
May 17, 2009
25,699
36,180
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg
My opinion was that Jenkins was excellent at taking advantage of speed mismatches on defenders his size (e.g. getting back to goal quickly and/or getting one on ones against smaller players he could jump over). He was rarely any good against defenders of comparable size and ability (except for one notable game when he took apart Rance, one of the biggest sources of my frustration with him), and when our ball movement dried up so did his scoring ability because he wasn't good on the lead or contested marks.

Had a decent leg and some good highlights.
It's all mental with Jenkins. When he pulled his finger out and worked, he could get good results without going for over the top goals. The issue was he'd always revert back to being a lazy seagull looking for cheapies. Start of 2019 he was constantly conceding front position to our "bomb it in high and long" entries because he'd always hope it'd go over the top and he could sneak out the back. And then he had the balls to complain when he was dropped and whinged others deserved it more than him.
 

Top Bottom