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Player Watch Reilly O'Brien - Re-Signed to End of 2028
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Obviously not as a ruckman
Strachan has put up good numbers in the SANFL so I’d give ROB two weeks off to physically and mentally freshen up and see what the other bloke has to offer.
In the meantime ruck Frampton in the SANFL to see what he can do in that role as he’s clearly a bust as a KPF.
The worst case from playing Strachan is surely not that much worse than we’re currently getting from ROB and the upside is (1) a genuine alternative and competition for spots and (2) the possibility of some moderate trade currency.
In the meantime ruck Frampton in the SANFL to see what he can do in that role as he’s clearly a bust as a KPF.
The worst case from playing Strachan is surely not that much worse than we’re currently getting from ROB and the upside is (1) a genuine alternative and competition for spots and (2) the possibility of some moderate trade currency.
- Jun 15, 2005
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Possibly
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Haha, class? Look, I actually like the big fella but classy is not, and will never be a label you can attach to him with a straight face.
He's an effort guy, blue collar, workman who at his best does a good job of following his taps, sticking his big head over the ball and helping out at ground level. I like him for it.
But the point here is that just because he's capable of leading the ruck at a high level for the next 5-6 years doesnt guarantee that's going to happen. His recent form dip highlights just one of the reasons that we need to get a developing ruckman on the list this year. The kid might not make an iota of difference now, but in ~3 years when results start to matter, the pressure to perform is there.
How many games this year would we say ROB has won the contest with his opponent?
How many times has he broken even?
How many times has he broken even?
- Jun 15, 2005
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Probably a number most Port fans can count to
In terms of overall Hit Out stats, with individual players in brackets:
R1: tie 31-31 (O'Brien 22, Stanley 21)
R2: lost 34-32 (O'Brien 24, Hickey 26)
R3: won 36-34 (O'Brien 34, Wicks 26, Burgess 8)
R4: lost 38-32 (O'Brien 31, Goldstein 23, Campbell 14)
R5: lost 37-39 (O'Brien 32, Darcy 35)
R6: won 44-27 (O'Brien 40, McEvoy 24)
R7: won 29-24 (O'Brien 20, Mumford 21)
R8: lost 42-32 (O'Brien 28, Lycett 34)
R9: lost 41-20 (O'Brien 15, Naitanui 31)
It's fair to say that Lycett, Goldstein & NicNat smashed him to kingdom come, and Darcy got the better of him as well. O'Brien smashed McEvoy. Most other games were close enough to even (+/- 2 hitouts).
It's hard to say whether he's "broken even", given that not every ruck contests is against the same opponent. Some of his wins may have come against the opposition's support ruck, and similarly some of the opposition's lead rucks may have been against our support acts. I don't have access to that level of data. Thus, I have said any result with a +/- 2 HO differential was "breaking even".
Looking a bit more broadly, his stats do seem to be down about 10% on last year:
Hit Out Win Rate
2019: 43.4%
2020: 44.3%
2021: 40.4%
Hit Out to Advantage Rate:
2019: 25.8%
2020: 29.7%
2021: 26.3%
Going a bit deeper again, here are his head-to-head results, comparing his 2020 & 2021 performances against the 9 teams we've played so far this year (apologies for the formatting):
| HOW 2020 | HOAR 2020 | HOW 2021 | HOAR 2021 | |
| Geelong | 46.8 | 29.7 | 36.1 | 13.6 |
| Sydney | 39.3 | 36.4 | 36.9 | 16.7 |
| Gold Coast | 55.2 | 29.7 | 47.9 | 26.5 |
| North | 43.6 | 23.5 | 43.5 | 20 |
| Fremantle | 38.6 | 35.3 | 41.6 | 34.4 |
| Hawthorn | 45.6 | 26.9 | 50.6 | 35.9 |
| GWS | 58.1 | 18.6 | 42.2 | 21.1 |
| Port | 39.6 | 42.9 | 37.3 | 25 |
| West Coast | 28.9 | 23.1 | 24.6 | 40 |
O'Brien's performances improved, relative to 2020, against Freo & Hawthorn, but have gone backwards against all other opponents.
https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I297523/O'Brien-Reilly
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It's tough isn't it. (Thanks for the data by the way - great analysis)
The data suggests ROB beat McEvoy comfortably, but I'd say using the eye test, that they probably broke even across the game.
I'm struggling to find one game where I think he clearly won and had an influence on the game.
I'd say that the bigger issue is that he's not taking as many marks, or contributing as much during general play.
It's a bit harder to put a finger on that statistically - his kicks are down this year (6.3 down to 5), handballs up (7.4 to 9), marks down by ~20% (3.8 per game to 3.0). The cynic in me says him kicking less is probably a good thing.
O'Brien's lack of leap means that he's often dominated in the centre clearances. However, in the past he was able to use his strength & positioning to win a high percentage of ruck contests around the ground. Unfortunately, the AFL Stats page doesn't differentiate between the two. It does differentiate between centre clearances and stoppage clearances, but not centre bounces and stoppage ruck contests.
My gut feel is that he's not winning as many of these stoppage ruck contests in 2021 - but the AFL Stats page lacks the granularity required to back up that assertion.
My gut feel is that he's not winning as many of these stoppage ruck contests in 2021 - but the AFL Stats page lacks the granularity required to back up that assertion.
The hit out to advantage rate isn't the % of contests that resulted in a HO-A, but % of hitouts that resulted in a hit to advantage.
ROB wins the hitout 40% of the time, and of that 40%, 26% are to advantage. So about 1/10 contests result in a ROB HOA.
Grim.
I'm not sure that your interpretation is correct. For the record, here are the (career) HOAR & HOW stats for a few of the AFL's superstar ruckmen:
| HOW | HOAR | Ruck Contests | |
| Reilly O'Brien | 42.8 | 27 | 68.5 |
| Nic Naitanui | 53.4 | 28.7 | 47.6 |
| Brodie Grundy | 48.6 | 29.3 | 66.1 |
| Max Gawn | 55 | 33.1 | 64 |
| Todd Goldstein | 46.9 | 29.2 | 68.8 |
As you can see, all of them have higher Hit Out Win rates, but the Hit Out to Advantage rates aren't that much different. Gawn's HOAR is significantly higher, but there's not a lot between the rest, and nobody is getting HOA rates anywhere near 50%.
Just out of interest... ROB is still the AFL's 7th ranked ruckman for HO and HO average. I suspect that ROB rucking 90% of every game may play a part in that, with ROB attending more ruck contests per game on average (career) than most other ruckmen (only Goldstein attends more on the list above).
Thanks mate, but the 'interpretation' is correct. Switch over your tab on AFL stats pro away from average to 'total' and you'll see.
ROB has 601 ruck contests this year, 243 hitouts (243/601 = 40.4%), and 64 hitouts to advantage (64/243 = 26.3%). 64 hitouts to advantage for 601 contests = 10.6% HOA rate.
The hit out to advantage rate needs to be considered in conjunction with the hitout rate. If a ruckman loses the tap most of the time, but when he wins it, fires it to advantage, it's probably still only as 'net effective' as one who wins a bit but taps poorly, but the first ruckman's HOA numbers will look great. Unfortunately ROB is doing neither. He's both near the bottom for win %, and near the bottom for to advantage %.
The numbers you present paint a really, really bad story. Let's look at Gawn vs ROB over their careers as per your numbers.
Gawn averages 64 contests a game. He wins 55% (35.2). Of those, 33.1% are to advantage (averaging 11.65 a game).
ROB averages 68.5 contests a game. He wins 42.8% (29.3). Of those, 27% are to advantage (average 7.91 a game)
If you standardise those numbers to account for the fact that Gawn attends less contests (so bring Gawn's numbers up to 'per 68.5 contests, like ROB), his average is 12.47, which is 4.56 more HOA per game than ROB.
That's 4 and a half times a game that Gawn's midfields emerge with the ball following a contest by virtue of his ruckwork more than ROB's do. In a game of field position, that's huge.
But that's using the numbers you've provided over their careers. Let's look at just this season.
Gawn averages 54.7 contests a game, of which 34.4 result in hitouts, and 12 of those are to advantage.
ROB averages 66.8 contests a game, of which 27 result in hitouts, and 7.1 are to advantage.
If you standardise Gawn's numbers to ROB's contests, he'd average 14.65 hitouts to advantage a game compared to ROB's 7.1. It's more than double. nearly twice a quarter. Ryder and NicNat have a similar gap. Blokes like Grundy,
That's match defining.
Below is a list of notable rucks in the competition and their hitouts per game and hitouts to advantage per game, standardised to ROB's amount of contests. At least he's not Rhys Stanley, I guess.
| Player | Standardised Hitouts | Standardised Hitouts to Advantage |
| Paddy Ryder | 42.22 | 15.08 |
| Max Gawn | 42.08 | 14.66 |
| Nic Naitanui | 34.86 | 14.14 |
| Sean Darcy | 36.6 | 13.36 |
| Brodie Grundy | 39.05 | 13.29 |
| Rowan Marshall | 31.22 | 10.27 |
| Andrew Phillips | 26.31 | 10.12 |
| Marc Pittonet | 28.34 | 9.79 |
| Jake Carlisle | 25.31 | 9.69 |
| Scott Lycett | 31.4 | 9.65 |
| Jarrod Witts | 35.42 | 9.37 |
| Toby Nankervis | 29.97 | 9.31 |
| Matt Flynn | 27.45 | 9.29 |
| Todd Goldstein | 31.32 | 9.15 |
| Oscar McInerney | 29.17 | 9.01 |
| Ben McEvoy | 25.51 | 8.45 |
| Lloyd Meek | 21.73 | 7.11 |
| Reilly O'Brien | 27 | 7.11 |
| Peter Wright | 26.49 | 7.01 |
| Tom Hickey | 23.33 | 6.7 |
| Stefan Martin | 22.86 | 6.56 |
| Rhys Stanley | 20.92 | 5.56 |
| Caleb Graham | 13.9 | 5.24 |
We are effectively running a lame duck in the ruck. His numbers are comparable to a KPF who filled in while they had no rucks (Wright), an undersized and unfit 34 year old (Martin) and only 1.8 HOA more per game than a key defender who's 195cm and never trained as a ruck (Graham). His numbers are closer to Graham's than they are to McInerney's, who's one of the worst performed rucks around.
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Are these numbers adjusted to factor in game time change? Otherwise last years numbers need a 25% boost which further highlights something like marking.
Great post Skippos by the way.
Certainly highlights Rob's inability to tap to an advantage. As a slight out, I do wonder how much it hurts having a midfield like ours to go to vs a strong team which might just go to better positions vs ours who has largely been without our two mist experienced midfielders (Sloane and Crouch) whilst losing our other going into 2021 in Brad.
Certainly highlights Rob's inability to tap to an advantage. As a slight out, I do wonder how much it hurts having a midfield like ours to go to vs a strong team which might just go to better positions vs ours who has largely been without our two mist experienced midfielders (Sloane and Crouch) whilst losing our other going into 2021 in Brad.
Yep. ROB's poor hitout to advantage % certainly may be influenced by a poor clearance brigade who struggle to work into good positions for him to tap to, and a poor stoppage structure (coaching).
But even then, he's only winning 40% of the hitouts which is entirely on him. At that %, even if he was a marvellous, naitanui like, tap to advantage he'd only be middle of the pack for total hitouts to advantage.
He will go the way of Ivan Maric and once we find a more capable ruck he will be replaced. This is years away of course.
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- Jan 31, 2020
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sorry to quote myself, but I still stand by this.
Absolutely ridiculous to sign him for this long. He’s had an absolute horrible season, and we still have 4 more years of his services.
guess I’m “another one” who isn’t happy with the contract!
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Are you still 100% certain about this comment and his standing in the game?
Time to reassess your top 5 ruck men.
UcantCme
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I'm obviously the board's biggest Strachan fan, but playing lone ruck, especially against sides that play two rucks meaning you're never as fresh as the bloke you're competing against, can't be an easy task.
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Im seeing “fastest to 1,000 hit outs ” thing a lot, I’d love to see the same for Hitouts to Advantage
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Welcome to Doc Clarkes school of ruck coaching.
ROB is just a sauce 2.0, he's even following Sauces good year, rough year, good year kind of streak. If only this club didn't think it was admirable to soldier through injuries.
Four years also makes a whole lot of sense. We don't have any young ruck depth and we really don't have any business targetting rucks in trades/FA until later on in the piece if we aren't drafting a developing ruckman (which we almost have too this national draft).
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