Relocation within Melbourne?

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thegreig

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....and for the past 20 years the "demographic centre" of Melbourne has been moving back towards the CBD with increased development in the inner suburbs combined with population growth in in the North & West (Point Cook, Caroline Springs, Cragieburn) occurring at a faster rate than the population growth the the South-East.

Source: https://blog.id.com.au/2018/population-forecasting/is-the-demographic-centre-of-melbourne-shifting/

The AFL predicted this trend when they closed Waverley Park. The fact this thread is even created demonstrates that people in the South-East think they are 'special'.
But the clubs being mentioned have the vast majority of their supporter base in the south east region, again it should definitely stay in the CBD but you’re the only person using the word “special”. It’s never going to happen but there is a reason reason the region is often suggested and it’s got not to do with being “special” it’s just simple economics.
 

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Gigantor

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It’s not about the people who’ll travel there, it’s about the people who are already there. The population is enormous, that’s the whole point.
Well, we now have decades of data showing people enjoy going into the CBD for their sport, they will come from all directions.
If you are marketing to just one pocket of the total population, by definition, that means lower attendances.
 

thegreig

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Well, we now have decades of data showing people enjoy going into the CBD for their sport, they will come from all directions.
If you are marketing to just one pocket of the total population, by definition, that means lower attendances.
And that’s the main reason it’ll never move back to the burbs transport, pubs and atmosphere. It’s about the entire game day experience
 

Hawkk

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But the clubs being mentioned have the vast majority of their supporter base in the south east region, again it should definitely stay in the CBD but you’re the only person using the word “special”. It’s never going to happen but there is a reason reason the region is often suggested and it’s got not to do with being “special” it’s just simple economics.
But the numbers do not support this.

Take Hawthorn for example, between 1997-99 the Hawks averaged 25,400 for games against non Victorian clubs at Waverley Park (and before 1997 it was lower again)

Since 2000, Hawthorn’s MCG home and away games against non Victorian clubs is more than 38,000 (and 31,000 at Docklands)

Now obviously Hawthorn play 2-3 non Victorian games against non Victorian clubs in Tasmania but back in the 1990s the balance of games were against West Coast and Adelaide who have always had considerably more Victorian fans than GWS, the Gold Coast, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.

Hawthorn MCG home and away games against West Coast (38,000), Adelaide (37,000), Brisbane (35,000) and Sydney (52,000) are much higher than equivalent games at Waverley Park.

The centralised stadiums policy was definitely the right approach for the AFL in terms of crowd maximisation. Bringing the b/e point down for the two stadiums is where the challenge lies and the only way to do that is to probably play even more games at the two stadiums
 

Underarm

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This is something I’ve thought about a few times.

Now what about this... what if a club were to look to make either a partial or even full relocation to say Casey - I use that as it's the largest LGA population in Melbourne. There are 340k people in Casey. Places like Narre Warren and Cranbourne are about 45 minutes from Melbourne (probably double that in peak hour). Bordering Casey (340k) are Monash (185k), Dandenong (166k), Knox (163k), Frankston (142k), Peninsula (166k) and Cardinia (107k). That's 1.3 million people. Even take away Monash, the closest to the current football centres in the CBD, and it's 1.1 million. And this isn't a takeover of Vietnam. This population is already completely football mad.
Let's assume we're talking about Casey fields. There room to upgrade and a planned station.

The City of Monash is closer to Richmond(23 minutes) than Cranbourne (38 minutes).
Knox has poor Railway access. Richmond is still easier to get to.

For Frankston it's 40 minutes by bus, and it's about 25 minutes from Narre Warren on a good day. Obviously with high traffic that could double.

Basically from every area mentioned the MCG is still the best option to get to and from.
 

thegreig

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But the numbers do not support this.

Take Hawthorn for example, between 1997-99 the Hawks averaged 25,400 for games against non Victorian clubs at Waverley Park (and before 1997 it was lower again)

Since 2000, Hawthorn’s MCG home and away games against non Victorian clubs is more than 38,000 (and 31,000 at Docklands)

Now obviously Hawthorn play 2-3 non Victorian games against non Victorian clubs in Tasmania but back in the 1990s the balance of games were against West Coast and Adelaide who have always had considerably more Victorian fans than GWS, the Gold Coast, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.

Hawthorn MCG home and away games against West Coast (38,000), Adelaide (37,000), Brisbane (35,000) and Sydney (52,000) are much higher than equivalent games at Waverley Park.

The centralised stadiums policy was definitely the right approach for the AFL in terms of crowd maximisation. Bringing the b/e point down for the two stadiums is where the challenge lies and the only way to do that is to probably play even more games at the two stadiums
You’ve completely missed my point, I’m not arguing for games to moved anywhere and have said that from the beginning. I’ve stated in my posts that the CBD is absolutely the best place for games to remain for several reasons. My point was that hypothetically if there were to be a third stadium in the south east for the previously mentioned clubs it would have nothing to do with the people living out that way being “special” and everything to do with economics. I have no doubt what so ever that a third stadium would be pointless and draw lower crowds regardless of its location.
 

Mister M

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My point was that hypothetically if there were to be a third stadium in the south east for the previously mentioned clubs it would have nothing to do with the people living out that way being “special” and everything to do with economics.
Care to explain the ‘so called’ economics you are sprouting about?

As I explained in a previous post over the past 20 years the demographic ‘Centre’ of Melbourne has been moving in a North-Westerly direction as the population of Melbourne continues to grow.

When the A-League decided to add a 3rd Melbourne team; placing one out in the suburbs it decided to choose the Western suburbs to base the team (and build a future stadium) rather than the South-East Melbourne bid.

What economics are there to support this philosophy?? Or is this debate continually brought up by the same people who get frustrated by spending too much time driving on the Monash and think their ‘special’ and want things easier for them— by moving AFL games closer to them & further away from the rest of Victoria’s population.
 

Kwality

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Well, we now have decades of data showing people enjoy going into the CBD for their sport, they will come from all directions.
If you are marketing to just one pocket of the total population, by definition, that means lower attendances.
Its more an alternative to moving games out of the Melbourne CBD as Geelong has, as the Bullies have, then there are the games moved out of Victoria.
Geelong is unique in the Vic landscape, its fair enough to try & learn .... lets see if Ballarat can make it work.
 

Bunk Moreland

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But the numbers do not support this.

Take Hawthorn for example, between 1997-99 the Hawks averaged 25,400 for games against non Victorian clubs at Waverley Park (and before 1997 it was lower again)

Since 2000, Hawthorn’s MCG home and away games against non Victorian clubs is more than 38,000 (and 31,000 at Docklands)

Now obviously Hawthorn play 2-3 non Victorian games against non Victorian clubs in Tasmania but back in the 1990s the balance of games were against West Coast and Adelaide who have always had considerably more Victorian fans than GWS, the Gold Coast, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.

Hawthorn MCG home and away games against West Coast (38,000), Adelaide (37,000), Brisbane (35,000) and Sydney (52,000) are much higher than equivalent games at Waverley Park.

The centralised stadiums policy was definitely the right approach for the AFL in terms of crowd maximisation. Bringing the b/e point down for the two stadiums is where the challenge lies and the only way to do that is to probably play even more games at the two stadiums
What about St Kilda?

I doubt Hawthorn would be involved in this, though it’d be interesting to see where they’d take the Tassie games if they ever get kicked out of there.
 

Bunk Moreland

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Care to explain the ‘so called’ economics you are sprouting about?

As I explained in a previous post over the past 20 years the demographic ‘Centre’ of Melbourne has been moving in a North-Westerly direction as the population of Melbourne continues to grow.

When the A-League decided to add a 3rd Melbourne team; placing one out in the suburbs it decided to choose the Western suburbs to base the team (and build a future stadium) rather than the South-East Melbourne bid.

What economics are there to support this philosophy?? Or is this debate continually brought up by the same people who get frustrated by spending too much time driving on the Monash and think their ‘special’ and want things easier for them— by moving AFL games closer to them & further away from the rest of Victoria’s population.
A League licenses are awarded to private owners. Western United got their’s due to the license fee and the proposal to build their own private stadium with private money.
 

Mister M

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A League licenses are awarded to private owners. Western United got their’s due to the license fee and the proposal to build their own private stadium with private money.
....didn’t the South East Melbourne bid suggest exactly the same thing with a Stadium near Dandenong?
 

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thegreig

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Care to explain the ‘so called’ economics you are sprouting about?

As I explained in a previous post over the past 20 years the demographic ‘Centre’ of Melbourne has been moving in a North-Westerly direction as the population of Melbourne continues to grow.

When the A-League decided to add a 3rd Melbourne team; placing one out in the suburbs it decided to choose the Western suburbs to base the team (and build a future stadium) rather than the South-East Melbourne bid.

What economics are there to support this philosophy?? Or is this debate continually brought up by the same people who get frustrated by spending too much time driving on the Monash and think their ‘special’ and want things easier for them— by moving AFL games closer to them & further away from the rest of Victoria’s population.
I think you should go back and actually read some of my post before rambling on and proving my point in your own comment. Not once have I argued that the demographic centre of Melbourne is outside the CBD, I said for the clubs mentioned (hawthorn, st. kilda and Melbourne) the vast majority of their supports live in the South East corridor Frankston (as a reference point) being 54km away from the CBD. Hence if there were to be a purpose built third stadium for the three clubs mentioned above then the south east corridor would be the best location purely due to the geographical location of the majority of their fans, regardless of crowd sizes. Same reason Geelong play games at Kardina park when they would get bigger crowds at the MCG, because economically that’s what makes sense for the majority of their fans. Why build a stadium for Western United out west And not in the CBD closer to the rest of the population? Could it be because that’s where the majority of their fans are located??
Or is it because people out west are “special”
 

Mister M

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I think you should go back and actually read some of my post before rambling on and proving my point in your own comment. Not once have I argued that the demographic centre of Melbourne is outside the CBD, I said for the clubs mentioned (hawthorn, st. kilda and Melbourne) the vast majority of their supports live in the South East corridor Frankston (as a reference point) being 54km away from the CBD. Hence if there were to be a purpose built third stadium for the three clubs mentioned above then the south east corridor would be the best location purely due to the geographical location of the majority of their fans, regardless of crowd sizes. Same reason Geelong play games at Kardina park when they would get bigger crowds at the MCG, because economically that’s what makes sense for the majority of their fans. Why build a stadium for Western United out west And not in the CBD closer to the rest of the population? Could it be because that’s where the majority of their fans are located??
Good to see you avoided providing any actual economic rationale (that you keep claiming exists) within this little rant of yours ;)

You really are a ‘special’ breed of Whingers down there— it’s like people from Western Australia & decided to live in Pakenham & Cranbourne of all places.
 

thegreig

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Good to see you avoided providing any actual economic rationale (that you keep claiming exists) within this little rant of yours ;)

You really are a ‘special’ breed of Whingers down there— it’s like people from Western Australia & decided to live in Pakenham & Cranbourne of all places.
Do you actually know how to read? the fact that the majority of the fans live in that geographical area is the economical reason, I even gave you an example with Geelong and used your own theory as to why Western United want to build a stadium in the western suburbs for the same reasons.
 

Mister M

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Do you actually know how to read? the fact that the majority of the fans live in that geographical area is the economical reason, I even gave you an example with Geelong and used your own theory as to why Western United want to build a stadium in the western suburbs for the same reasons.
Claiming that someone doesn't know how to read when responding on an online text based forum..

That's a special kind of stupid IMO-- if I didn't know how to read; wouldn't I be unable to read your complaint? ;)
 

thegreig

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Claiming that someone doesn't know how to read when responding on an online text based forum..

That's a special kind of stupid IMO-- if I didn't know how to read; wouldn't I be unable to read your complaint? ;)
So you can read but you just choose to ignore what’s written and make generalisation about people from the entire area.
 

The_Reaper

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Well, we now have decades of data showing people enjoy going into the CBD for their sport, they will come from all directions.
If you are marketing to just one pocket of the total population, by definition, that means lower attendances.
Guess the Giants should play their home games at the SCG then
 

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