Discussion Remaining Fixture

[Michael Scarn]

No matter how many times i do the ladder predictor it comes down to the GWS game to determine if we make the 8 now. I'm trying not to be a pessimist, but following this club for long enough has me of the opinion we'll choke at the final hurdle.

What's worse then not making finals is going to be all the media kicking the boots in if we do fail. We basically had a spot locked up 2 weeks ago. To miss from here, will see the same old mentally fragile, weak, pretender headlines bandied about. People on here will say the same old "Well, if we looked at the start of the year we'd be happy with this result. Much better then previous years."
But that's BS. We have had a massive chance to get some much needed finals experience in a compromised year that would do wonders for confidence. If we fail again at the final hurdle, it may well just have a negative effect on the group.

Agree that the media/social media will sink the boots in, but only a naive viewer would've said we had a finals spot locked in factoring in our run home and inconsistency throughout the year.

Performances against North/Freo/Geelong/Adelaide showed we are a mid-range team, and in a 17 round season you'd expect us to finish mid-range accordingly.

i'd be annoyed if the talk is that we got ahead of ourselves, which I really don't think we have - our final position will be reflective of where we're at.

 

[gringo2011]

Without looking at the fixture Adelaide will win a game this year. If one of the sides going to a spot in the 8 hits them don't be surprised if there is an upset. They aren't terrible and they would be very keen not to end up with the title.

 

[ULTIMATE_WARRIOR]

Melbourne is the team that will slip up. They still have the Giants and Bombers. I’d be surprised if they win both of them, and I also wouldn’t factor out them choking it up vs. Sydney or Freo.

 

[bird_man]

I think we’ll make it. Hawthorn are sh*t this year and GWS aren’t that good either.
West Coast will crush us, but whatever.

I actually think we've got more chance against WC then the Giants.

They are 2-4 away from Optus stadium and will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days against us.

The two wins were against Adelaide and Sydney.

Both unlikely wins but not impossible.

 

[70s sainter]

There’s still plenty that can go right for us to make finals with just the 1 win against the hawks .
carlton beating gws this week would be a good start.

 

[bird_man]

There’s still plenty that can go right for us to make finals with just the 1 win against the hawks .
carlton beating gws this week would be a good start.

There are a few things that could go our way, but all unlikely at this stage

Melbourne to drop 2 games v Sydney, Freo, GWS, Essendon

Giants to drop 2 games v Cartlon, Adel, Melbourne, StK

Collingwood to lose all games against Bris, GC and Port

Melbourne and Giants playig each other means one of them loses at least one game.

Also we need WC to beat the Dogs other wise they could go past us.

 

[BrutThough]

There are a few things that could go our way, but all unlikely at this stage

Melbourne to drop 2 games v Sydney, Freo, GWS, Essendon

Giants to drop 2 games v Cartlon, Adel, Melbourne, StK

Collingwood to lose all games against Bris, GC and Port

Melbourne and Giants playig each other means one of them loses at least one game.

Also we need WC to beat the Dogs other wise they could go past us.

Ideally, Giants lose to Carlton and Us while Melbourne lose to GWS and Fremantle.

All possible results with how these teams shave been playing this year.

 

[gringo2011]

There are a few things that could go our way, but all unlikely at this stage

Melbourne to drop 2 games v Sydney, Freo, GWS, Essendon

Giants to drop 2 games v Cartlon, Adel, Melbourne, StK

Collingwood to lose all games against Bris, GC and Port

Melbourne and Giants playig each other means one of them loses at least one game.

Also we need WC to beat the Dogs other wise they could go past us.

Maybe WC would like to drop our game to keep some of the better team outside the 8 from playing finals. I reckon the Dogs would be a harder side to beat in finals than the Saints right now.

 

[NarklesHelmet]

Rob Harding breaks down what's gone wrong at St Kilda and how they can fix it

They've won just one of their last four matches.

www.sen.com.au

Interesting and what we expected.

Thanks for the link, it summed what has gone wrong in the past few games pretty perfectly.

In this league, when you are going well, as we were, teams go to school on you.

It‘s why I don’t like when we have a go at some players of ours at the moment. Plugger himself or Milney couldn’t make an impact in our forward line as oppositions are crowding it and our mids have’t adjusted with their delivery. A lot of this is on the coaches and I’m sure they are trying to work through it. It may take a pre-season unfortunately, but as this article states, we’ve still made progress.

 

[gringo2011]

Thanks for the link, it summed what has gone wrong in the past few games pretty perfectly.

In this league, when you are going well, as we were, teams go to school on you.

It‘s why I don’t like when we have a go at some players of ours at the moment. Plugger himself or Milney couldn’t make an impact in our forward line as oppositions are crowding it and our mids have’t adjusted with their delivery. A lot of this is on the coaches and I’m sure they are trying to work through it. It may take a pre-season unfortunately, but as this article states, we’ve still made progress.

Great sides can play their system and no-one can unravel it or have a solid plan B to put up when shit goes wrong. We seem to be not quite doing either yet. Ratts is a smart coach, hopefully he's got something else up his sleeve. It's the worst year to need to retrain a game plan though, no VFL to teach the full squad, smaller training groups etc. It would be an ideal week to pull it out if we do have one though.

 

[Mowman]

Thanks for the link, it summed what has gone wrong in the past few games pretty perfectly.

In this league, when you are going well, as we were, teams go to school on you.

It‘s why I don’t like when we have a go at some players of ours at the moment. Plugger himself or Milney couldn’t make an impact in our forward line as oppositions are crowding it and our mids have’t adjusted with their delivery. A lot of this is on the coaches and I’m sure they are trying to work through it. It may take a pre-season unfortunately, but as this article states, we’ve still made progress.

Plugger would've made an impact

 

[Mowman]

Great sides can play their system and no-one can unravel it or have a solid plan B to put up when sh*t goes wrong. We seem to be not quite doing either yet. Ratts is a smart coach, hopefully he's got something else up his sleeve. It's the worst year to need to retrain a game plan though, no VFL to teach the full squad, smaller training groups etc. It would be an ideal week to pull it out if we do have one though.

Agree, but we are not a great side yet, do we need a plan B or just need to get better with what we are doing now ?

Bit of both most likely

 

[The Punter]

ESPN Australia prediction has us finishing 9th.

 

[bird_man]

ESPN Australia prediction has us finishing 9th.

That's exactly what will happen if all the favourites win.

There's always upsets.

Let's just hope some fall in our favour, or better yet we cause one.

 

[BrutThough]

Maybe WC would like to drop our game to keep some of the better team outside the 8 from playing finals. I reckon the Dogs would be a harder side to beat in finals than the Saints right now.

I think the most important result for us in this next stretch is West Coast beating the Dogs.
If that doesnt happen, a lot of doors slam shut for us.

 

[Keg still on legs]

Whilst the disappointment of the weekend is still very real, it's not the end of the line for us just yet.

All algorithms that see us finish 9th rely on the favourites winning every game. If this year has taught us anything it's that there are no sure things (except maybe WC over there)

If we beat hawthorn and win one of the games against GWS or WC we are in

If GWS drop two of their games against Melb and Carl we are in even if they beat us

If Melb drop two against ess, syd, freo or giants we are in

I haven't looked at the inpact of %age in the above, but all are possible outcomes based on us having the best current %age of the teams vying for 7th / 8th.

Essentially though, we still have control of our season. Just win 2 or all 3 and it's a moot point whoever else wins.

Also, good article on the SEN app about what's gone south for us in recent weeks. Written by Rob Harding it ends with...

 

[bird_man]

On the plus side, it's a good change to talk about which teams have got to **** up for us to still make the 8 rather than which kid we will take with our high pick in the draft.

 

[The Punter]

Good teams tend to get there a year early. Hawthorn in 2007, Doggies in 2015...

As I said last week, the target should be to win one final.

 

[St Neil]

Well also, if Melbourne do the typical Melbourne and drop a game they should win against Syd/Freo/Ess then that may well save us

I think Essendon will beat Melbourne. There is no certainty GWS will beat Carlton either.

Not sure 9 wins saves us, but it might. We can beat GWS.

 

[crinkoes]

I think Essendon will beat Melbourne. There is no certainty GWS will beat Carlton either.

Not sure 9 wins saves us, but it might. We can beat GWS.

Agree. Essendon now have Stringer, Hooker, Heppell and Daniher playing which makes them a far more intimidating prospect for the demons than what they have been in recent weeks.
Joe Daniher in particular can make a massive difference. If Melbourne beat the swans and dockers but lose to the giants and bombers (not that unrealistic) then it’ll come down to percentage against us, unless we can upset the eagles or giants and guarantee it for ourselves.
It’s not all doom and gloom.....yet

 

[Mat Mann]

Agree, but we are not a great side yet, do we need a plan B or just need to get better with what we are doing now ?

Bit of both most likely

we need to get better at retaining the ball, working on moving the ball slowly forward and then being able to release deep into fwd 50 with our talls and smalls there to crowd the ball and stop the rebound, that being said, don't dismiss the progress this team has made in a year with such a huge personnel changes on and off-field.

most of the board had us around the 8, we're some 30% up on percentage over last year, we've beaten sides we should have, beaten some top 8 teams, lost some we shouldn't have, only 2 decent defeats that we'd normally lose by 60+. and really cemented a few players.

our back line looks really good for the future, the fwd line needs more work, we've improved our mids.

if we were to grade the year, I'd be about a B/B+.

not to say be happy not playing finals, but if we just miss, the year is still a success imo.
with the work the club has put into the list in the last 2 years, i'd back them again to fill the needs we do have. I'd expect our draft team to be idle come draft time.

edit: this just seems wrong now that I've read the few posts above

 

[Stewart66]

Rob Harding breaks down what's gone wrong at St Kilda and how they can fix it

They've won just one of their last four matches.

www.sen.com.au

Interesting and what we expected.

Absolutely nothing wrong with the plan ....it’s the execution of ball use ..(.Rath. )


There has been systematic change with the personnel in back half , not only that but the way we move
the ball , it’s not mentioned in the article because unfortunately last couple of weeks we returned to
2019 set up , was pretty shocked to be honest that when Carlisle was rested that either Roberton or Marsh
we’re not included down back.

We had lots of opportunities rather than run & carry the ball , the players mentally checked out and bombed.


Go back and watch the replay of the Bulldogs game then watch this last game for a real comparison .


Nothing wrong with our plan designed by Rath ...no mistake about it folks it’s his plan.

It‘s a failure to “execute “that are the loses of Fremantle / Brisbane / Melbourne .

 

[One 2 Roo]

If we played Hawthorn at the 'Gabba - I would be 100% confident of a win - Metricon, I am down to 80%.

I am hoping that we win, and win very well as a bit of a confidence booster. I haven't looked at the game thread from the weekend, but IMO we were clearly the better team. Our form is good enough to get the two wins we need - hopefully 3 with a cheeky upset over the Eagles!!

Adelaide are a chance to roll the Hawks tonight, they may see this as their last opportunity to get a win.

 

[One 2 Roo]

BTW - I'm not ruling our a win against the Eagles.

Think about this - by next Thursday night, that is 9 days away, they will have played Essendon (tonight), WB on Sunday and then us Thursday. The impact of that period can not be underestimated.

 

[Diehard Saint]

BTW - I'm not ruling our a win against the Eagles.

Think about this - by next Thursday night, that is 9 days away, they will have played Essendon (tonight), WB on Sunday and then us Thursday. The impact of that period can not be underestimated.

Pray for three tough, physical matches for them. No Kennedy or Cripps tonight.