Reviewing the 2013 draft selections with admittedly the benefit of hindsight

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greening22

Team Captain
Apr 14, 2008
551
599
MELBOURNE
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
NEWCASTLE; JUVENTUS;
Hi Folks

Now I constructed this tread with some degree of anticipated caution. I know that it is always easier to be wiser with the benefit of hindsight. Then again this topic has been on my mind for some time. Therefore I felt that I had to give some expression to it on this site. As most successful top National Draft 10 picks have had - in a perfect world - an AFL career of ranging between 10 to 12 years. Given that it is unlikely that Freeman will play any senior football in 2015 (with his chronic hamstring issues) while Scharenberg has the chance - if selected next week in the seniors or Round 18 - to play no more than 6 games in the normal home-and-away season (excluding finals if we do make them in 2015), then they have both effectively lost 2 years of AFL football.


However given the fact that we had draft choices 6 and 10 from 2013 National Draft and that from that Draft both of our selections have the only 2 players - apart from Selection 20, Jack Leslie who went to the Gold Coast - from the top 30 who as of Round 17, 2015, - who have not played any senior AFL football. Moreover we chose a mid-fielder in Freeman and half-back flank/ruck-rover type in Scharenberg. I am also wondering if we were not thinking in an optimal fashion in relation to our key-position vacancies in relation to our 2 forward positions going forward. It has been clear for a number of years that there was not any clear high-quality young heir-apparent's on our list in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively, to Cloke who is clearly in the last 2 or 3 years of his AFL career having commenced at Collingwood in 2005. The latter situation was exacerbated by the earlier decision in the AFL National Draft of 2012 to overlook James Stewart - at 198 CM and 88 kilos - as a father-son recruit. I also wanted to point out that the Pick 6 selection from 2013, came to us as compensation for Dale Thomas going to Carlton as compensation for the restricted free agent movement. Therefore it was incumbent for the club to extract maximum value from this selection.


So I am wondering if we would have been better to have taken the two we have chosen or would we have been better - both in terms of current playing performances over 2014/2015 - to have selected Patrick Cripps - who went at Pick 13 (and so would have provided us with 194 CM and 88 KG mid-fielder - and in turn Cameron McCarthy who went at Pick 14 (and so would have provided us with a 194 CM and 84 KG high-marking key forward)? Alternatively, should we have selected Scharenberg at Pick 6 and say either Cripps at Pick 10 or perhaps, more strategically and long-term, McCarthy at Pick 10? Given the performances so far for both of these players at both Carlton and West Coast, respectively, over 2014 and 2015 it is hard to criticise their selections at either of these 2 clubs. So where would be now if we had made such selections especially in terms of our key-forward options as they are not easy to access in the current era?


I am wondering what other Collingwood supporters think of the content of this thread! I can assure you that I am not trying to be mischievous or unduly provocative in writing this but I think that we may be better placed when it comes to the future if we could have had our 2 Top 10 selections from 2013 over again (which I know if wishful thinking). This particularly applies to our key forward stocks for whom we are pretty light on given the performances of Jesse White and the inevitable decline in playing performance of Travis Cloke in the latter years of his career. I also take into account the clear failure of Corey Gault to develop and take the opportunities that are there on the list by the throat over the last 2 years. I am also cognisant of the fact that it will take Darcy Moore a number of full AFL pre-seasons to build up physically so that he can compete at the senior level. Moreover it is not clear whether he will end up being a forward or a key-defender (where he often plated in his TAC career)or perhaps even an extremely mobile and high-marking ruck-man as was the case with his father, Peter. Anyway over to you.
 
So we were supposed to use our top 10 pick on a player outside the top 10 and hope he was a gun like Cripps? o_O

12 other clubs passed on him and we would have taken Salem or Aish anyway, there is no scenario where we have a crystal ball and pick Cripps from outside the top 10, that's wildly unrealistic

And McCarthy had question marks over him or a gun key forward goes top 5
 

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Can't wait to go back to this thread with hindsight when the players we drafted get fit and actually play an AFL game.
 
Still way too soon to be reviewing the 2013 draft. No doubt it's disappointing that we haven't seen much of Scharenberg or Freeman due to injury but it generally takes more than five years to get a true picture as to the success of a draft. Some players will take longer than others to come through, and some will have fast starts and then fade. Have a look at some of the past NAB rising star winners if you're want examples of that.
 
Happy to criticise if the players show that they're not up to it, but they haven't done that. Hard to have a go when they haven't had the chance to get out on the park.
 
Putting draftee injuries to one side, and looking at it solely from a list-balance point of view, McCarthy is the one I'd take with the benefit of hindsight. To me, the gaping hole on our list is KF talent coming through. Cloke is 28, Reid has been in the medical room for two years, and White is White... Moore I have high hopes for, but even if he is as good as we all hope, he's gonna need a partner up forward. If we had McCarthy, I'd feel pretty confident that we could be a contender for several years.

I suspect that when we took Scharenberg and Freeman, we were probably hoping that Cloke-Reid might be the foundation of our forwardline in the medium term. Had Reid not succumbed to one injury after another this may well have eventuated, and would have given us a few extra drafts to get our hands on KF talent.

Take it from someone who chewed over the Fraser-Pavlich decision for yonks, you can drive yourself crazy with these kind of coulda-woulda-shoulda scenarios. And to what end?
 
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Kind of a pointless debate, isn't it? No one taken in the first round lacks talent, whether a player is a bust or not is down to development (including mental development) and injury. You can't take a player's performance at one club and assume he'll have the same performance at any other club. By saying Cripps or McCarthy would have performed to the level they have at their respective clubs at Collingwood is a little naive; there are a myriad of factors that may have shaped their game since being drafted. Perhaps GWS have a KPF development program superior to ours? Perhaps Cripps is a player that performs best when he feels he needs to carry the team? There's no way to know.
 
I actually think the doggies plonking down pick 4 on Bontempelli screwed us a little because he is just the sort of player Hine likes (late bloomer, point of difference with his combination of size / speed / endurance / disposal, hasn't even really scratched the surface on his potential yet and can do the mercurial out of nowhere at times).

Having said that I also think that (if the injury imp can gtfo down at the Westpac Centre) come this time next year we'll be happy with both Shaz and Freeman if they get given a fair chance to develop their craft further (including at AFL level when the opportunity presents itself).
 
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The correct play would be to take The Big Show at both #6 and #10.

I sincerely hope (in a way) that The Big Show never strides out onto the MCG, as the cleanup afterwards will be epic - imagine the aftermath of 50,000 proton beam-toting collingwood supporters ganging up on the Stay-Puft(tm) marshmallow man all at once, possibly with more than just the occasional crossing of the streams, whenever The Big Show slams one through the big sticks up into the second tier and you might get the picture...
 
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I actually think the doggies plonking down pick 4 on Bontempelli screwed us a little because he is just the sort of player Hine likes (late bloomer, point of difference with his combination of size / speed / endurance / disposal, hasn't even really scratched the surface on his potential yet and can do the mercurial out of nowhere at times).

Having said that I also think that (if the injury imp can gtfo down at the Westpac Centre) come this time next year we'll be happy with both Shaz and Freeman if they get given a fair chance to develop their craft further (including at AFL level when the opportunity presents itself).

and 1 that Hine Rated Very Highly
 
I'm planning to post in the retrospective draft thread in 2016 and the one in 2017 and the ones in 2018 and 2019. By then I'll have more certainty.

Evidently, there's going to a time machine designed in 2050 that will make these threads superfluous...
 
Can't wait to go back to this thread with hindsight when the players we drafted get fit and actually play an AFL game.

And when will that be? I think that at the present time Scharenberg is on track to hopefully play some time in the remaining 6 games this year. However in relation to Freeman there has to be a real doubt as to whether his body will ever be able to withstand the physical pressures of the current AFL game. I am hoping that I am proven wrong but I do not see any evidence. Moreover how many years do we wait for a player to be able to demonstrate that he can make the grade? 2 years, 3 years or longer? I mean we are already handicapped by the ongoing and seemingly endless Ben Raid saga as well as having Keefe and Thomas sitting out on the sidelines for all of 2015 and increasing looking like 2016 as well.
 

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