Revisiting the Crows' big trades from the last two years

Winners or losers?


  • Total voters
    34

cmndstab

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Now that a bit of time has passed and we've had a chance to see how various future pick trades worked out, and who we took with various picks, I thought it might be interesting to review the big trades that the Crows have been involved in over the last two years. Namely, the Lever, Gibbs and McGovern trades. The Cameron trade is also important, but that one was cut and dry; we lost Cameron, and gained Fogarty. Draw your own conclusions.

However, for the other three trades, the results were fairly complicated and often entwined. I've done my best to unpick everything and trace the various traded picks to their conclusions. It's surprising how often they ended up being bundled together with another trade.

When discussing picks we've lost, I've listed where the picks ended up being in the draft, rather than where they were before the draft (and before academy and F/S selections pushed them back). When discussing picks we've gained, I've listed the player we took, except for the picks still to come this year.

Here is what we lost.

Players: Jake Lever, Mitch McGovern
2017 picks: 16, 37, 77
2018 picks: 33, 47
2019 picks: Our first and third round selections


And here is what we gained.

Players: Bryce Gibbs, Ned McHenry, Shane McAdam, Lachlan Scholl, Will Hamill
2019 picks: Carlton's first and second round selections


So, how did we do? Obviously, at this stage, only one of the gains is in our best 22, and even then that's in question at the moment. If Gibbs can get back to being the player we know he can be, it's goes a long way to making this a win, but in his current form not so much. Still, with an eye to the future, all four of McHenry, McAdam, Scholl and Hamill have shown something in the SANFL and I'd be surprised if we don't end up with at least a couple of them in the best 22 in the next year.

Having Carlton's first round pick is the big prize here. Funnily enough, we got it by trading out pick 19, which was one of the outcomes of the Lever trade. So thanks Lever for helping us gain access to that!

In terms of what we gave up, I think we can all agree that Lever, while a quality player, was replaced pretty much immediately by Doedee, and then again by Keath after Tom's ACL injury. No real loss there. McGovern would be handy to have right now, but he's not setting the world on fire. Other than that, the big pieces are the 2017 late first round pick, and the 2019 first round pick.

Interested in your thoughts.
 

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For me if you isolate the trades

Gibbs Trade - paid massive overs
Lever trade - received slight overs
McGovern - fair
Pick swap - looking like we've reamed Carlton

If you were to put it all together at this present stage we've come out in front, but things could change with that pick swap with Carlton so it's too early to call.
 

Scorpus

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I prefer to break down each trade into the actual things we paid, then look later at what we received overall in the big picture.

Lever Trade:

Out: Lever, Pick 35 (37), 2018 3rd 46 (47)
In: 10, 2018 1st 16 (19), 2018 4th 59 (62)

That's a win. The second rounder we gave back was late and we got two decent firsts.

Wigg Trade:

Out: Wigg, Pick 54, 2018 4th 65
In: Pick 39 (40)

Good set of upgrades there. Two junk picks and Wigg for a late second-ish. Used Pick 40 on McPherson who has struggled.

Gibbs Trade:

Out: Pick 10, Pick 16, Pick 73 (70), 2018 2nd 28 (33)
In: Gibbs, Pick 77, 2018 2nd 19 (24), 2018 3rd 36 (44)

Big loss. Would have been better if we gave Carlton a much later 2nd from a higher finish, or if we didn't give Carlton that 2nd rounder at all.

Cameron Trade:

Out: Cameron
In: Pick 12

Win. Got the best value possible from Cameron. Used 12 on Fogarty.

McGovern Trade:

Out: McGovern, 2019 3rd, Pick 40 (44)
In: Pick 13, McAdam, 2019 5th

Neutral on this one. Shouldn't have had to give up two third rounders for best value. The quality of the trade depends on McAdam. Pick 40 was Carlton's 2018 3rd from the Gibbs trade.

Gold Coast Swap into Tyson Stengle

Out: 2019 4th
In: Pick 68 (62)

Out: Pick 68 (62)
In: Stengle

Like the look of Stengle. Reckon that's good, good value.

Carlton Swap

Out: Pick 19, 2019 1st
In: 2019 1st

Huge win. Hard to see it any other way. We'd have to finish very poorly to make this a shocker. Epic win.

GWS Swap

Out: Pick 24, 2019 5th
In: Pick 28 (30), 2019 2nd (Carlton)

Pick 24 is what used to be our pick 19 from Carlton in the Gibbs trade. Also a huge win. Underrated trade and IMO just as good as the Carlton swap.

OVERALL

Out: Cameron, McGovern, Lever, Pick 16, Pick 28, Pick 35, Pick 46, Pick 73, 2019 1st, 2019 3rd, 2019 4th, 2019 5th
In: Gibbs, McAdam, Stengle, Pick 12, Pick 13, Pick 28, Pick 59, Pick 77, 2019 1st (Carlton), 2019 2nd (Carlton), 2019 5th

Very complicated situation. A shuffled simplification:

Lever → Gibbs :thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown:
Cameron → Pick 12 (Fogarty) :thumbsu:
McGovern → Pick 13 (McHenry) :thumbsu:
2019 3rd → McAdam :thumbsu:
2019 4th → Stengle :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
Wigg → Pick 39 (McPherson) :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
Pick 28 → Pick 28 (Hamill)
Pick 16 + 2019 1st → Carlton's 2019 1st :fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire:
Pick 35 → Carlton's 2019 2nd :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
Late pick shuffles

On each individual trade and looking at the shuffled match-up, I think we come out ahead on nearly every trade EXCEPT swapping Lever for Gibbs which was a massive fail. Without that trade we'd be streets ahead. With that trade, we're probably even if slightly ahead.
 

John Who

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I prefer to break down each trade into the actual things we paid, then look later at what we received overall in the big picture.

Lever Trade:

Out: Lever, Pick 35 (37), 2018 3rd 46 (47)
In: 10, 2018 1st 16 (19), 2018 4th 59 (62)

That's a win. The second rounder we gave back was late and we got two decent firsts.

Wigg Trade:

Out: Wigg, Pick 54, 2018 4th 65
In: Pick 39 (40)

Good set of upgrades there. Two junk picks and Wigg for a late second-ish. Used Pick 40 on McPherson who has struggled.

Gibbs Trade:

Out: Pick 10, Pick 16, Pick 73 (70), 2018 2nd 28 (33)
In: Gibbs, Pick 77, 2018 2nd 19 (24), 2018 3rd 36 (44)

Big loss. Would have been better if we gave Carlton a much later 2nd from a higher finish, or if we didn't give Carlton that 2nd rounder at all.

Cameron Trade:

Out: Cameron
In: Pick 12

Win. Got the best value possible from Cameron. Used 12 on Fogarty.

McGovern Trade:

Out: McGovern, 2019 3rd, Pick 40 (44)
In: Pick 13, McAdam, 2019 5th

Neutral on this one. Shouldn't have had to give up two third rounders for best value. The quality of the trade depends on McAdam. Pick 40 was Carlton's 2018 3rd from the Gibbs trade.

Gold Coast Swap into Tyson Stengle

Out: 2019 4th
In: Pick 68 (62)

Out: Pick 68 (62)
In: Stengle

Like the look of Stengle. Reckon that's good, good value.

Carlton Swap

Out: Pick 19, 2019 1st
In: 2019 1st

Huge win. Hard to see it any other way. We'd have to finish very poorly to make this a shocker. Epic win.

GWS Swap

Out: Pick 24, 2019 5th
In: Pick 28 (30), 2019 2nd (Carlton)

Pick 24 is what used to be our pick 19 from Carlton in the Gibbs trade. Also a huge win. Underrated trade and IMO just as good as the Carlton swap.

OVERALL

Out: Cameron, McGovern, Lever, Pick 16, Pick 28, Pick 35, Pick 46, Pick 73, 2019 1st, 2019 3rd, 2019 4th, 2019 5th
In: Gibbs, McAdam, Stengle, Pick 12, Pick 13, Pick 28, Pick 59, Pick 77, 2019 1st (Carlton), 2019 2nd (Carlton), 2019 5th

Very complicated situation. A shuffled simplification:

Lever → Gibbs :thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown:
Cameron → Pick 12 (Fogarty) :thumbsu:
McGovern → Pick 13 (McHenry) :thumbsu:
2019 3rd → McAdam :thumbsu:
2019 4th → Stengle :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
Wigg → Pick 39 (McPherson) :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
Pick 28 → Pick 28 (Hamill)
Pick 16 + 2019 1st → Carlton's 2019 1st :fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire:
Pick 35 → Carlton's 2019 2nd :thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:
Late pick shuffles

On each individual trade and looking at the shuffled match-up, I think we come out ahead on nearly every trade EXCEPT swapping Lever for Gibbs which was a massive fail. Without that trade we'd be streets ahead. With that trade, we're probably even if slightly ahead.
I like the simplified breakdown. I just want to add that it shouldn’t be a simple case of comparing the swaps but more the issue of “is the trade help to improve the team or worsen it?”

For example, the loss of Lever isn’t actually a loss because we have an instant replacement in Doedee/Keath PLUS we freed up some salary cap space. So whatever we got for the Lever trade is a nice bonus.

Final point, I really like the Carlton swap of 2019 1st round. It is good!
 

cmndstab

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Certainly you can look at the individual trades, but one issue with that is that generally the products of one trade were used to grease the wheels of the next, and so on. That's why I thought it might be instructive to look at them all as one giant package.

I think it's fair to say that Carlton's first and second rounders this year offset all of the lost draft picks. That includes two first round picks (one very late, and this year's one), two late second round picks, two third round picks, and a fifth round pick. Perhaps we're slightly ahead there.

That pretty much means that we're matching up Gibbs, McHenry, McAdam, Scholl and Hamill against Lever and McGovern. Two quality players against one player who should be quality, and four young players with potential, but who haven't shown it at AFL level yet.

Still a bit of a wash at this stage, although if Carlton can hold the bottom spot this year, just the marketing potential of pick 1 alone is worth the punt.
 

Relaxed

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Now that a bit of time has passed and we've had a chance to see how various future pick trades worked out, and who we took with various picks, I thought it might be interesting to review the big trades that the Crows have been involved in over the last two years. Namely, the Lever, Gibbs and McGovern trades. The Cameron trade is also important, but that one was cut and dry; we lost Cameron, and gained Fogarty. Draw your own conclusions.

However, for the other three trades, the results were fairly complicated and often entwined. I've done my best to unpick everything and trace the various traded picks to their conclusions. It's surprising how often they ended up being bundled together with another trade.

When discussing picks we've lost, I've listed where the picks ended up being in the draft, rather than where they were before the draft (and before academy and F/S selections pushed them back). When discussing picks we've gained, I've listed the player we took, except for the picks still to come this year.

Here is what we lost.

Players: Jake Lever, Mitch McGovern
2017 picks: 16, 37, 77
2018 picks: 33, 47
2019 picks: Our first and third round selections


And here is what we gained.

Players: Bryce Gibbs, Ned McHenry, Shane McAdam, Lachlan Scholl, Will Hamill
2019 picks: Carlton's first and second round selections


So, how did we do? Obviously, at this stage, only one of the gains is in our best 22, and even then that's in question at the moment. If Gibbs can get back to being the player we know he can be, it's goes a long way to making this a win, but in his current form not so much. Still, with an eye to the future, all four of McHenry, McAdam, Scholl and Hamill have shown something in the SANFL and I'd be surprised if we don't end up with at least a couple of them in the best 22 in the next year.

Having Carlton's first round pick is the big prize here. Funnily enough, we got it by trading out pick 19, which was one of the outcomes of the Lever trade. So thanks Lever for helping us gain access to that!

In terms of what we gave up, I think we can all agree that Lever, while a quality player, was replaced pretty much immediately by Doedee, and then again by Keath after Tom's ACL injury. No real loss there. McGovern would be handy to have right now, but he's not setting the world on fire. Other than that, the big pieces are the 2017 late first round pick, and the 2019 first round pick.

Interested in your thoughts.
Do you also look at salary cap space + changeroom/attitude issues with getting Lever and McGovern out when considering the trades?
Both wanted to be the highest earners at the club based on potential rather than sustained success.
Cannot have afforded to keep both and set contractual precedent for young players.
Lever has balanced out by the development of Doedee/Keath, McG is too injury prone and inconsistent, although he has undeniable x-factor for about 10 minutes a game when he actually plays.
Out of the 3, losing Cameron has imo hurt us the most with his speed, evasiveness, tackling and goal sense, especially at ground level.

With the benefit of hindsight, keeping Lyons at the end of 2016 may have been better than chasing Gibbs in 16/17, but Gibbs helped hold the midfield together last year with all the injury issues. This year has been pretty low for him though so far. If Lyons had wanted to stay and been able to get the game time required to develop into the player he is today, he looks to be projecting to be more damaging than Gibbs.
 

skittlebrew

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Carlton Swap

GWS Swap
Huge wins on the pick swaps. Carlton swap definitely takes the edge off the atrocious Gibbs deal.

Shame about Lever, Gov and Cameron. Our future was brighter with them but least we got a fair price for each.

Gibbs is looking like a serious loss. What the hell happened to him?!
It's called age. I recall posters saying 'he plays like Burgyone' and likewise will play til his mid thirties. I stated Burgoyne was a freak and would be very hesitant to compare anyone to Burgoyne.

And here we are...
 

Scorpus

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Certainly you can look at the individual trades, but one issue with that is that generally the products of one trade were used to grease the wheels of the next, and so on. That's why I thought it might be instructive to look at them all as one giant package.
I think that's fair to an extent. For example within a trade period.

But I don't think the club was planning to tank the Gibbs deal knowing in the following draft AFTER the trade period we'd make two great split second trades.

So for me, winning those doesn't make the Gibbs trade a positive overall
 

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rezagun

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Losing cameron at the time we did has been a huge loss even for fogarty. Fog cant get a game in our best 22 and cameron kicked 3 against us on the weekend. Hes the one we miss the most. We got a good reward for him in pick 12 but we havent replaced him seemlessly like doedee replaced lever in the lineup.
 

conVINCEd

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Losing cameron at the time we did has been a huge loss even for fogarty. Fog cant get a game in our best 22 and cameron kicked 3 against us on the weekend. Hes the one we miss the most. We got a good reward for him in pick 12 but we havent replaced him seemlessly like doedee replaced lever in the lineup.
Yep, exactly what I was thinking as I watched Charles carve us up and win the game for Brisbane.
 

jackster83

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We've done fairly well in terms of obtaining draft picks for departing players. The pick swap is also looking like a massive win at this point in time.

We've failed to improve the 22 we put out each week though, and that goes back all the way to 2015. Gibbs is looking like one of our worst ever trades - hopefully it's something that is fixable or he's going to be spending the last two years of his contract in the SANFL.

Think it's the trades we didn't do that are hurting us the most (i.e. bring in a ruck to take Hunter's spot on the list).
 

johnnypanther

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I thought Stengle should’ve played v Brisbane while Eddie had a rest.
I cant see why it should be either Eddie or Stengle, IMO we can and should play both together - 2 xfactor goalkicking forwards create a different pressure on the opposition and i would complement them with McHenry plus Murphy (or preferably MacAdam when he's ready) as the 2 defensive forwards (and more xfactor).
Add in Walker, Fogarty and Himmelburg ....
 

kulak

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At a tactical level agree with Scorpus 100 percent.

At a strategic level I think it’s not so good.

1) We added Gibbs to a lineup that already had several similar midfielders. He is a very good straightforward mid who accumulates without providing elite skill or pressure. He hasn’t provided any real point of difference.

Compare to if he went to Hawthorn for example. Right now they would love someone with his toolkit to reinforce their midfield.

Whether or not the price was fair value in a trade - Gibbs hasn’t provided and looks unlikely to provide that value to us given our existing list.

2) We lost Charles and MGov our two best forward pressure players from a forward line which was otherwise old and slow and getting older and slower.

We didn’t invest any of the trade proceeds in players who could help while Sloane Tex Talia Betts are still at their best.

Overall we traded out players who were scarce on our list, and traded in a player who we had already on our list.

Tactical win / strategic loss.
 

Bay62

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I’m still absolutely certain that Gibbs will come good and provide us with great service

I’m also completely deluded but that’s all I’ve got left...wishful thinking... :/
 
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conVINCEd

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I cant see why it should be either Eddie or Stengle, IMO we can and should play both together - 2 xfactor goalkicking forwards create a different pressure on the opposition and i would complement them with McHenry plus Murphy (or preferably MacAdam when he's ready) as the 2 defensive forwards (and more xfactor).
Add in Walker, Fogarty and Himmelburg ....
Who are you taking out to fit Stengle in this week? Assuming Milera comes in for Gooch?
 

LiquidCrow

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I’m still absolutely certain that Gibbs will come good and provide us with great service

I’m also completely deluded but that’s all I’ve got left...wishful thinking... :/
In the past I had similar naive hopes about Tambling and Menzel too. If Gibbs gets cut at the end of the year, I'll be disappointed but not shocked.
 

Golumless

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Lever trade is quite easily the best bit of business we've done this decade. That'll never change.

Cameron is still good, a tad unfortunate he's blossomed in an environment but it is more an overpay that has worked out for Brisbane then anything else.

Gibbs is looking like a bad trade, I do get that we really didn't need prospects at the time (we're seeing the issues we're having with the limited amounts as is), and the whole it is better to not die wondering aspect. Willing to forgive this one, seeing we were a contender at the time, our losses didn't look crippling (and I'd still argue that wasn't the issue, more we potentially overrated our position to begin with) and really, premierships are won in the midfield.

McGovern well that one is hard to say, on one end, we massively undervalued him. On the other, he had the potential to be an absolute cancer at this club and removing cancer is always going to be costly. Very meh on that deal.
 
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GROTTO

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In hindsight it appears we were right to trade Lever, should have kept Cameron and Gov and never considered Gibbs.

Would we have been better of then letting go of Jenkins and Betts and have had Gov and Cameron instead in their places? and kept our two 1sts instead of handing them over for Gibbs.

The age profile of the players suggests also we made mistakes.
 
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