Club Focus Richmond 2021 - Tarrant, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks, Clarke

[nineteen eighty]

Interesting question - the Rising Star award might be indicative - only one of the 2020 drafted players finished in the top 5 (Errol Gulden) and he was Pick 32!

Yeah I think this is a theme that will be repeated next year.

I would say that the Rising Star award is absolutely not indicative of performance v selection order at this stage.

Last year had several KPP (JUH, Thilthorpe, McDonald, DGB, Cox, Reid) who are all a few years away from being developed enough to know where they'd sit in the order of things, although you could say that all of them look very capable in terms of where they were selected. Also need to consider injuries to players like Hollands and Pedlar.

Certainly a case for players like Powell, Berry, Poulter, Gulden & Edwards to have been selected higher than they were initially drafted.

It is way too early to get a real feel for how last years draft will play out but I do think there is a trend that quite a number of later picks will come on late and ultimately show they should have been higher picks. The kids have lost so much in development that it's almost impossible for that to not be the case.

Having said that, there are basically 2 ways a club can benefit with the Vic kids:

1. Have the most unbelievably talented "talent spotting" team
2. Luck

I'm banking on luck playing more of a role in this but quite a few clubs will get lucky with some of their late first / second round picks. I'm hoping the Tiges are one of those lucky clubs. I don't want to give away are 2 early'ish picks personally.

 

[RobJD]

I would say that the Rising Star award is absolutely not indicative of performance v selection order at this stage.

Last year had several KPP (JUH, Thilthorpe, McDonald, DGB, Cox, Reid) who are all a few years away from being developed enough to know where they'd sit in the order of things, although you could say that all of them look very capable in terms of where they were selected. Also need to consider injuries to players like Hollands and Pedlar.

Certainly a case for players like Powell, Berry, Poulter, Gulden & Edwards to have been selected higher than they were initially drafted.

I'd suggest that it's a reasonable indication - over the past 20 years KPP have won the award 25% of the time (to be fair, not all of them in their first year), that said, unlike the Brownlow, don't rule out a player performing strongly in their first year simply because they are a KPP. I do accept that KPP take longer to develop, so re-rating them after one year is an altogether risky process. Thought that the AFLPA nominees for best first year player might give an insight into the rating of last year's R1 and R2 draft - only 6 teams nominated their first pick in last year's draft and only 10 teams nominated a player from the draft - that's just over 50% of teams rated their best first year player out of last year's national draft (the remaining teams voted players from the 2020 PSS, Rookie drafts etc).

 

[TigerTime88]

(Quoted Picks are taking into account bids on Daicos & Darcy)

GWS won't be easy to bargain with. They coughed up their 2019 Pick 6 AND their 2020 1st rounder for our 2019 Pick 4 a few years back. We've apparently tried to work up the order as well with no luck.

The higher in the 1st round you're trying to get, especially in that bracket of JHF, Darcy, Daicos and Callaghan, the more you're going to be paying an absolute premium to move up the board.

My guess is that GC won't budge either, as i don't think they have the list spots to split their pick?

I think the mock draft done yesterday was right in that the first team i see potentially splitting their pick is us. If Hobbs/Ward are still available at our pick my guess is that Hawks will try to move up to guarantee Ward, And Richmond potentially moving up to get either player.

It will be Pick 6 by that time and you don't have to look further than Port Adelaide in terms of what that might cost for the right player

2018 - 'Port has swapped picks 11, 23, 30 and 49 for the Dockers' No. 6 selection and a third-round pick next year'

Cancel out Pick 49 and the 3rd rounder, and Port effectively paid 2773 points for Pick 6

Warranted this was during a super-draft year, and the player they moved up the board to get was Connor Rozee.

Pick 9 from Richmond and a 2nd Rd pick just wouldn't get it done, IMO.

Richmonds 1st two picks will be Pick 9 & 17 (2494) points, and would be around the mark in terms of moving up to Pick 6.

My point more was surrounding the fact it's not really worth it in my opinion. I'd bank on trying to land a decent guy at 17 and 9 as opposed to one guy at 6. Seems pretty even after the first 3-4.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

My point more was surrounding the fact it's not really worth it in my opinion. I'd bank on trying to land a decent guy at 17 and 9 as opposed to one guy at 6. Seems pretty even after the first 3-4.

Yep, don't disagree with you there.

 

[blaisee]

This is not backed up by reality, at all.

The further up a club is trying to trade into the draft the less equitable the trade becomes for them, this is reflected in historical trades.

thats why it will stay as it is , no need to trade up, take what is there

 

[Simche]

This is not backed up by reality, at all.

The further up a club is trying to trade into the draft the less equitable the trade becomes for them, this is reflected in historical trades.

I think that largely reflects the maturity of the AFL's trade and pick swap systems though and it isn't universal. As I pointed out, Geelong and Richmond exchanged a first for a future first, Collingwood exchanged its first this year for two seconds last year and the Stoker deal was a first round pick for a future first pick swap. While only one of those deals with a top 5 pick (and not knowingly) I think pick swaps of this nature will become more common in future.

Look at sports like the NBA and NFL and there's far more of a pragmatic nature around moving up/down in the draft. At the moment the AFL clubs and their supporters seem to be unwilling to facilitate deals of this type for fear that they will 'lose' the trade or fundamentally just overrate their draft currency noting none of these blokes have even played an AFL game and there's no guarantee some of them ever will. I actually think if clubs took a long term view and trades of this nature were more common place it would create a greater degree of flexibility and a more even comp. Think we're a fair way away from that though.

I was largely just trying to point out that there's no way that clubs will be moving 3x firsts for a top 5 pick. While clubs and supporters can tolerate some degree of inequity in a trade in some instances (mainly for players out of contract), the mooted price being bandied around is far too rich for most recruiters blood I would venture.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

I think that largely reflects the maturity of the AFL's trade and pick swap systems though and it isn't universal. As I pointed out, Geelong and Richmond exchanged a first for a future first, Collingwood exchanged its first this year for two seconds last year and the Stoker deal was a first round pick for a future first pick swap. While only one of those deals with a top 5 pick (and not knowingly) I think pick swaps of this nature will become more common in future.

Look at sports like the NBA and NFL and there's far more of a pragmatic nature around moving up/down in the draft. At the moment the AFL clubs and their supporters seem to be unwilling to facilitate deals of this type for fear that they will 'lose' the trade or fundamentally just overrate their draft currency noting none of these blokes have even played an AFL game and there's no guarantee some of them ever will. I actually think if clubs took a long term view and trades of this nature were more common place it would create a greater degree of flexibility and a more even comp. Think we're a fair way away from that though.

I was largely just trying to point out that there's no way that clubs will be moving 3x firsts for a top 5 pick. While clubs and supporters can tolerate some degree of inequity in a trade in some instances (mainly for players out of contract), the mooted price being bandied around is far too rich for most recruiters blood I would venture.

Yeah but saying '3 x firsts for a top 5 pick' is a bit misleading, because not all 1st round picks are worth the same.
And Richmond/Adelaide already offered 3 x 1st rounders for Jason Horne, so the precedent is there for the right player.

Is Callaghan worth that? Absolutely not. But it makes no sense for GWS to move out of the safety of that 'Top 4' bracket and into what is arguably a more 'speculative' range of picks unless the deal is extremely in their favour.

Instances of where it's the trading of picks, and future picks, is always going to be slightly more equitable, because of the fact it doesn't involve players.

Trade 'inequities' are largely forgotten by supporters when the trade works out, for example the Rozee pick by Port Adelaide which sent nearly 2700 points worth of picks to Freo.

 

[Orange Agent]

Yeah but saying '3 x firsts for a top 5 pick' is a bit misleading, because not all 1st round picks are worth the same.
And Richmond/Adelaide already offered 3 x 1st rounders for Jason Horne, so the precedent is there for the right player.

Is Callaghan worth that? Absolutely not. But it makes no sense for GWS to move out of the safety of that 'Top 4' bracket and into what is arguably a more 'speculative' range of picks unless the deal is extremely in their favour.

Instances of where it's the trading of picks, and future picks, is always going to be slightly more equitable, because of the fact it doesn't involve players.

Trade 'inequities' are largely forgotten by supporters when the trade works out, for example the Rozee pick by Port Adelaide which sent nearly 2700 points worth of picks to Freo.

If we could do a Penny Hardaway/ Chris Weber trade on draft night I reckon it would suit us this year. Take Callahan and take the best deal for however takes Gibcus or Andrew. Slipping back pre draft is too much of a risk.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Don't think it is enough, think you were on the right track before.

GWS has demonstrated the little value placed on pick 13, pick 15 from Richmond won't be any better.

For GWS/GC it's all about quality over quantity.

What could work is:

GWS
In: Pick 4, Pick 7
Out: Pick 2, Pick 13

Adelaide
In: Pick 13, Pick 15, Richmond 2022 2nd
Out: Pick 4, Adelaide 2022 3rd

Richmond
In: Pick 2, Adelaide 2022 3rd
Out: Pick 7, Pick 15, 2022 2nd

I can see Adelaide sliding from pick #4 to pick #7 on draft night with a trade with the Tigers if we thought it would make little difference to our 1st pick... but I would see no reason we would slide to 2 late 1st rounders when we are looking to bring in a gun midfielder.

 

[Joey longshadow]

This is about right in terms of valuation, not sure why you were downvoted.

Probably by some guy who thinks 26 + 27 + 28 = pick 2

More likely to do with the fact that giving up 3 top 30 picks for 1 is unpalatable considering that from 10 to 30 the draft is supposedly pretty even ...I would say the thumbs down is from someone who wants us to take 5 picks in the top 30 to the draft

 

[Prochard123]

More likely to do with the fact that giving up 3 top 30 picks for 1 is unpalatable considering that from 10 to 30 the draft is supposedly pretty even ...I would say the thumbs down is from someone who wants us to take 5 picks in the top 30 to the draft

I have no idea why you are saying this. You are not getting a pick in the 10-30 range, so this whole idea is pointless.

We are talking about pick 2 in the draft.

 

[Joey longshadow]

I have no idea why you are saying this. You are not getting a pick in the 10-30 range, so this whole idea is pointless.

We are talking about pick 2 in the draft.

I'm talking about the proposal of giving up 7,15,27 for pick 2 ...and that the poster who gave the thumbs down probably thought (in your opinion ) that 26,27,28 would be acceptable for pick 2 my assertion was that the thumbs down was giving up three top 30 picks for one ...hope this clears it up

 

[LOZWILDA]

We had a crack at pick one. Missed out.
Not worth giving up picks for Hobbs.
Just get best available at our picks.
If Hobbs is not there at our pick(9). Rachele, Erasmus or Amiss will be. And we still get a good player at 17- Goater, JVR, Sinn or Sonsie.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[TheTassieHawk]

If we could do a Penny Hardaway/ Chris Weber trade on draft night I reckon it would suit us this year. Take Callahan and take the best deal for however takes Gibcus or Andrew. Slipping back pre draft is too much of a risk.

I agree totally.

I would even give the clubs 7-10 days post draft, or to a fixed date like December 1, to trade draftee for draftee with picks involved to balance it up.

Once that is accepted and has been implemented for a year or two I would then try to get all listed players eligible to be part of the trade packages, with consent.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Given our previous 2 recent picks in the 26-28 range netted us Noah Balta

21

Noah Balta

Age

24

Ht

194cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

3.1

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.9

4star

MG

236.3

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.3

1star

MG

233.0

4star

D

7.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

217.4

4star

and Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

I wouldn't be giving these up as if they are worth nothing. I think its just as likely the best overall player we pick from this draft comes from those 3 picks ahead of 7 and 15. Happy to stay with the picks we've got, if someone offers us a great deal for 28 then look at it.

Also not sure how Richmond or Adelaide would be prepared to overpay for GWS pick 2, and it may well still be in GWS' interests to take a lesser deal. If GWS have decided they will pick Andrew at pick 2, but are confident they can get him come draft night at pick 7, then anything extra they get a win. If they keep pick 2, they get Andrew, if they took say Pick 7 and 15 then they get Andrew and another highly rated player, even if historically or by points they haven't maximised the value. Also, if Adelaide and Richmond know GWS will pick Andrew, and they are not interested in him, it effectively moves their picks 1 spot higher in the draft already. So it wouldn't surprise on the night to see GWS trade pick 2 for 7 & 15, because if they are going to get Andrew anyway they may as well take the extra pick.

 

[juss]

Given our previous 2 recent picks in the 26-28 range netted us Noah Balta and Shai Bolton I wouldn't be giving these up as if they are worth nothing. I think its just as likely the best overall player we pick from this draft comes from those 3 picks ahead of 7 and 15. Happy to stay with the picks we've got, if someone offers us a great deal for 28 then look at it.

Also not sure how Richmond or Adelaide would be prepared to overpay for GWS pick 2, and it may well still be in GWS' interests to take a lesser deal. If GWS have decided they will pick Andrew at pick 2, but are confident they can get him come draft night at pick 7, then anything extra they get a win. If they keep pick 2, they get Andrew, if they took say Pick 7 and 15 then they get Andrew and another highly rated player, even if historically or by points they haven't maximised the value. Also, if Adelaide and Richmond know GWS will pick Andrew, and they are not interested in him, it effectively moves their picks 1 spot higher in the draft already. So it wouldn't surprise on the night to see GWS trade pick 2 for 7 & 15, because if they are going to get Andrew anyway they may as well take the extra pick.

Good point, and it's worth not overpaying given what we know about pick 2, and that in this draft, it's likely a pick 4 in terms of the best talent (if you assume JHF, Daicos and Darcy are the top 3 talents).

There's no guarantees and I would hate to see us sell the farm for a kid who isn't even in the discussion as best of his draft class. Everyone else sits behind JHF and Daicos when it comes to midfielders. There's no guarantee they make it let alone kids rated after them.

 

[nineteen eighty]

Good point, and it's worth not overpaying given what we know about pick 2, and that in this draft, it's likely a pick 4 in terms of the best talent (if you assume JHF, Daicos and Darcy are the top 3 talents).

There's no guarantees and I would hate to see us sell the farm for a kid who isn't even in the discussion as best of his draft class. Everyone else sits behind JHF and Daicos when it comes to midfielders. There's no guarantee they make it let alone kids rated after them.

Based on limited exposed form. And very little development to date over the last 2 years. There will be late bloomers in this draft. Kids who come from the clouds (well maybe not that far) to become excellent players with game time and proper development. *

* Other than at Carlton of course given they don't know how to develop.

** Sorry couldn't help myself...it was too obvious to let go. See you in Rd 1 boys

edit: I should add, I'm not advocating trading up or otherwise. I just think there will be talent in this draft that will develop once the kids are in the system and the order of the draft in 3 - 5 years will not reflect what it will at draft time. I'm hoping we get lucky. No doubt some clubs will uncover some gems with picks in the 20's and 30's (imo).

 

[juss]

Based on limited exposed form. And very little development to date over the last 2 years. There will be late bloomers in this draft. Kids who come from the clouds (well maybe not that far) to become excellent players with game time and proper development. *

* Other than at Carlton of course given they don't know how to develop.

** Sorry couldn't help myself...it was too obvious to let go. See you in Rd 1 boys

edit: I should add, I'm not advocating trading up or otherwise. I just think there will be talent in this draft that will develop once the kids are in the system and the order of the draft in 3 - 5 years will not reflect what it will at draft time. I'm hoping we get lucky. No doubt some clubs will uncover some gems with picks in the 20's and 30's (imo).

Agree, there'll be a lot of VIC gems scattered through the draft. Kids that were/will be better than expected, but didn't have the early development or enough opportunity to show their wares or for it all to click.

I think it's a good draft to keep multiple picks inside the first 40 odd, as there will definitely be some bargain late bloomers that come on.

 

[Mr Magic]

I can see Adelaide sliding from pick #4 to pick #7 on draft night with a trade with the Tigers if we thought it would make little difference to our 1st pick... but I would see no reason we would slide to 2 late 1st rounders when we are looking to bring in a gun midfielder.

Agree, and I am not sure RFC would do that for the reasons Adelaide want to. It really boils down to which clubs want which players and how wilingl they are to moving around and other clubs letting them move around

 

[Dylan82]

FYI hearing that Richmond are chasing hard to ensure they get F.Callaghan - trying to get Brisbane involved in a three-way trade to get pick 2 from GWS.

Club:	Lose	Gain
Richmond	7 + 26 + 27	2 + 60
Brisbane	18 + 41 + 60	26 + 27 + 2022 (3rd)
GWS	2 + 2022 (3rd)	7 + 18 + 41

 

[Prochard123]

FYI hearing that Richmond are chasing hard to ensure they get F.Callaghan - trying to get Brisbane involved in a three-way trade to get pick 2 from GWS.

Club:	Lose	Gain
Richmond	7 + 26 + 27	2 + 60
Brisbane	18 + 41 + 60	26 + 27 + 2022 (3rd)
GWS	2 + 2022 (3rd)	7 + 18 + 41

There is less than 0% chance of this happening.

 

[Mr Magic]

There is less than 0% chance of this happening.

i am just trying to even understand it

 

[Pure_Ownage]

FYI hearing that Richmond are chasing hard to ensure they get F.Callaghan - trying to get Brisbane involved in a three-way trade to get pick 2 from GWS.

Club:	Lose	Gain
Richmond	7 + 26 + 27	2 + 60
Brisbane	18 + 41 + 60	26 + 27 + 2022 (3rd)
GWS	2 + 2022 (3rd)	7 + 18 + 41

Terrible for gws just no.

 

[Giant Strides]

FYI hearing that Richmond are chasing hard to ensure they get F.Callaghan - trying to get Brisbane involved in a three-way trade to get pick 2 from GWS.

Club:	Lose	Gain
Richmond	7 + 26 + 27	2 + 60
Brisbane	18 + 41 + 60	26 + 27 + 2022 (3rd)
GWS	2 + 2022 (3rd)	7 + 18 + 41

Gawd no.

Richmond's already got pick #15 - why do a trade for a lesser pick that would be less appetizing to GWS?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Given our previous 2 recent picks in the 26-28 range netted us Noah Balta and Shai Bolton I wouldn't be giving these up as if they are worth nothing. I think its just as likely the best overall player we pick from this draft comes from those 3 picks ahead of 7 and 15. Happy to stay with the picks we've got, if someone offers us a great deal for 28 then look at it.

Also not sure how Richmond or Adelaide would be prepared to overpay for GWS pick 2, and it may well still be in GWS' interests to take a lesser deal. If GWS have decided they will pick Andrew at pick 2, but are confident they can get him come draft night at pick 7, then anything extra they get a win. If they keep pick 2, they get Andrew, if they took say Pick 7 and 15 then they get Andrew and another highly rated player, even if historically or by points they haven't maximised the value. Also, if Adelaide and Richmond know GWS will pick Andrew, and they are not interested in him, it effectively moves their picks 1 spot higher in the draft already. So it wouldn't surprise on the night to see GWS trade pick 2 for 7 & 15, because if they are going to get Andrew anyway they may as well take the extra pick.

The problem is it’s a gamble and if they miss Andrew they may not rate anyone else available even close to him.
If they actually do rate Andrew highly and they were willing do a trade with Richmond for picks 7 & 15 thinking they would still get him they would almost be better off taking 2 to the draft and offering up 13 and their future first for pick 6 from Freo or 7 from Richmond on draft night to then take Andrew. That way they don’t risk missing out on both Callaghan and Andrew but could walk away with two guys they think are worthy of pick 2. essentially trading a future first and pick 13 for a player they were going to take at 2.