Richmond - time for a rebuild?

[Taper]

Yep, three coaches in 24 years. Huge attrition rate

3 coaches in 23 years …. Move along twit

Frawley, Wallace, Rawlings, Hardwick and McQualter.
That's five coaches and most likely to become six next year.
We've had two coaches in the same time frame and the last time we sacked a coach was in 1988.

 

[Mr Meow]

These ones. Pretty ******* similar wouldn't you say? so just to be clear you think he's not good yet they both average 1.5 goals per game at afl level? Henry one extra mark but less tackles amd goal assists. One plays for a far better side also.

Cumberland has never got a fair go under Dimma or Mini for some strange reason. I think that will change next year. He's also not a tall forward so lynch has nothing to do with it.

Also, don't be a ******* dick View attachment 1774141View attachment 1774143

Nice piece of data.

For simplification, 44 goals/assists for O.Henry this year vs 11 for Cumberland would just scrape Henry ahead. It's a much more stacked forward line to hold your place in at Geelong too.

A couple of bags of 4 goals against top 4 sides the cherry on top for Olly. Cumberland has only kicked 2 goals or more twice (13 times for Henry).

 

[Juddernaut08]

In such an even competition, I'd love to see the Tiges go all in and bring in ready-made talent like the Cats did last year.

Tap into the GWS and GC well and reap the rewards. Avoid using any top 40 draft pick if possible.

Give a call to Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond aren’t getting 12-15 years of the level you are holding Hopper at (his 2021 form). They will get 7 years of injury prone B grader who will most likely never be within the best 30 mids in the game again.

I would take my chances at the draft for a 15 year player, and use the salary cap space elsewhere. FWIW if all results go the way of the favourite Richmond will hand over pick 6.

Taranto was a great recruit and one you would do again.

If Richmond finish 6th bottom they won't likely be handing over pick 6. There are already 2 likely free agent and academy insertions(McKay and Walter). So it would be pick 8 in that scenario. It could also slide further. Clubs know this is likely when they trade future picks. If Richmond had finished where the market expected - top 6 - then the pick could be sliding about 4 places from all accounts.

And you don't really draft 15 year star players, that is extremely rare. The major stars you draft are not likely to be winning you any finals in key roles in their first 5 years or so. Below for instance is the first 18 picks of the 2019 draft. Let's ignore the top 5 as Richmond were never likely to have a pick in that range available to them. And you are not getting Tom Green because he is an academy player. Pickett played well in a flag 2nd year. Plenty of these players are getting competitive in their positions now, but they haven't been match winners to this point. From 2024 or 2025, sure, many of them will be capable of heavily influencing the result of big games. So what you are really drafting if you get a midfield or key position star is a player who can influence big games from about age 23 to 30. Or maybe a bit longer. You are doing incredibly well if you get 10 years at anywhere near that level out of even a star player you have drafted. If you draft a guy who plays his first game for you at 26 you probably expect 5 years at his best level versus drafting you expect maybe 7-8 years.

There are some other more minor benefits to drafting some stars....

• you have them in the door learning your system early
• you probably often get a discount on their salary to stay in later years with you compared to what another club might pay(not always, see Collingwood and Grundy.)
• if you are really really lucky like Collingwood with Daicos, Melbourne Pickett and Jackson, the player is good enough to have some real impact in big games on his starting salary, giving you a big discount on that list position for 2 years, maximum. Post 2 years though, different ball game - see Jackson, whose departure has now spannered Melbourne's forward planning massively, with flow on effects into the Grundy deal.

We are increasingly seeing clubs offering big money to capture the whole of a player's prime and get them in based as much on potential as anything, see Jackson, Rankine, Cerra. It will be interesting to see how those deals work out over the longer term.

Flag favourites Collingwood best 22 players they did not draft:

Howe, Mitchell, Hoskin-Elliott, Adams, Crisp, McStay, Cameron, Hill. 8

Then there are 3 special access father sons which other clubs cannot replicate, Moore, Daicos, Daicos.

Then a special access academy pick Quaynor.

Then mature project recruits Cox, Mihocek, Noble, Johnson.

Then a raft of bottom 6 fringe types from other clubs Markov, Frampton, Lipinski.

If they win the flag this year it will likely be with the following players they drafted as 18yo's that were available to every club who had a high enough pick:

Pendlebury, Sidebottom, DeGoey, and possibly Nathan Murphy and or Ginnivan. That is it. Elliott and McReery were drafted to Collingwood but a year after their draft class as 19 yo's.

System based footy, and free agency, and players' apparent rights to choose where to play seems to have radically changed the recruiting landscape as far as I can see.

You could also look at last years premiers Geelong you will see a similar picture I am sure.

 

[tiger_tough]

Nice piece of data.

For simplification, 44 goals/assists for O.Henry this year vs 11 for Cumberland would just scrape Henry ahead. It's a much more stacked forward line to hold your place in at Geelong too.

A couple of bags of 4 goals against top 4 sides the cherry on top for Olly. Cumberland has only kicked 2 goals or more twice (13 times for Henry).

He has a bag of 5 against the Lions last year. This year has been a write off. I think he has been totally mismanaged. Hopefully he can get a fair run st it next year. He has the talent in spades but confidence has been absolutely shot.

 

[Mr Meow]

He has a bag of 5 against the Lions last year. This year has been a write off. I think he has been totally mismanaged. Hopefully he can get a fair run st it next year. He has the talent in spades but confidence has been absolutely shot.

Yeah FWIW I do see potential in Cumberland. Hopefully he bounces back next year. It is difficult in a dysfunctional forward line for young players.

 

[Tonythetiger]

Frawley, Wallace, Rawlings, Hardwick and McQualter.
That's five coaches and most likely to become six next year.
We've had two coaches in the same time frame and the last time we sacked a coach was in 1988.

Oh geez, we had a couple of caretakers, we are such a basketcase.

Geelong supporters, what is this obsession with our club?

 

[Taper]

Oh geez, we had a couple of caretakers, we are such a basketcase.

Geelong supporters, what is this obsession with our club?

Going back to 1988 when we last sacked a coach and Richmond have also been coached by Bartlett, Jeans, Northey, Walls and Gieschen.
That's 10 coaches in the same time we've had only four coaches.
Our supporters hated Gary Ayers yet we never spat at him, nor did we dump chicken manure out the front of Kardinia Park.
Ironically the chicken manure was dumped at Punt Road following a loss to us.

 

[nut]

Frawley, Wallace, Rawlings, Hardwick and McQualter.
That's five coaches and most likely to become six next year.
We've had two coaches in the same time frame and the last time we sacked a coach was in 1988.

Frawley and TW contracts were not renewed so they weren’t sacked… Dimma left …
No one counts Caretaker coaches except twits

 

[HarryBeef]

Besides me no one on BigFooty would've called Rance a match-winner at 23yrs old.

But I knew Rance was a future match-winner when he wasn't. It's like some people have never heard of improvement lol!

I'm telling ya Balta is a match-winner already, is our team as good now as it was when Rance was 23? No.

Rance was in the 22 under 22 team and made AA at 24. He was averaging 18 touches and 6 marks a game as a 21 year old. You're not special.

 

[Daka]

From a post I made in another thread ...

I think it's safe to say that everyone on the Richmond list 29yo and older won't be playing in their next flag, that's everyone older and including Vlastuin. They are losing a lot of talent there.

Richmond have a decent crop of 23-28yo: Nankervis, Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Bolton and Balta, but apart from Bolton, none of them are match-winners like Martin, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Lynch and Rance.

Their 18-23yos don't inspire any confidence. Even Geelong have a much better 18-23yo crop with De Koning, Bruhn, O.Henry, Holmes, Conway and Clark vs Richmond who honestly have no-one in that age range that I would swap for any of those Geelong players.

We beat Geelong earlier in the year so it's interesting that you say they much better younger talent than us & were very competitive twice against your outfit who have imo the best list the AFL.

I'm not deluded in thinking we don't need more young talent we clearly do but we also have talent that we need to start playing & developing.

 

[Mr Meow]

We beat Geelong earlier in the year so it's interesting that you say they much better younger talent than us & were very competitive twice against your outfit who have imo the best list the AFL.

I'm not deluded in thinking we don't need more young talent we clearly do but we also have talent that we need to start playing & developing.

Martin, Broad, Cotchin, Short and Rioli dominated that game while Geelong were missing equivalent senior players: Dangerfield, J.Henry, C.Guthrie, Stengle, Rohan, Stanley, Close and Bowes (7 of them 2022 premiership best 22). Yes, even after accounting for no Lynch or Nankervis for Richmond.

We'll only get a true readout on youth vs youth when the 24 and unders become each sides best players.

 

[Daka]

Martin, Broad, Cotchin, Short and Rioli dominated that game while Geelong were missing equivalent senior players: Dangerfield, J.Henry, C.Guthrie, Stengle, Rohan, Stanley, Close and Bowes (7 of them 2022 premiership best 22). Yes, even after accounting for no Lynch or Nankervis for Richmond.

We'll only get a true readout on youth vs youth when the 24 and unders become each sides best players.

So you rave on about youth yet mention senior players that you were missing...
Cotch had 12 disposals in that Geelong game how is that dominating?

 

[Mr Meow]

So you rave on about youth yet mention senior players that you were missing...
Cotch had 12 disposals in that Geelong game how is that dominating?

What I'm saying is both sides depend on their best players and those are still pretty much 24 y.o plus. I wouldn't say either sides under 24s can carry the load, so you can't use that result to make that youth comparison (i.e it was a result of who had most senior quality missing).

Cotch kicked 3 great clutch goals that secured Richmond momentum in the game. I think he and Martin had 7 between them. If you thought your rookies won you that game fair enough. We all see things differently.

 

[Daka]

What I'm saying is both sides depend on their best players and those are still pretty much 24 y.o plus. I wouldn't say either sides under 24s can carry the load, so you can't use that result to make that youth comparison (i.e it was a result of who had most senior quality missing).

Cotch kicked 3 great clutch goals that secured Richmond momentum in the game. I think he and Martin had 7 between them. If you thought your rookies won you that game fair enough. We all see things differently.

Sampson Ryan will be a good player he played well in the Cats game imo is only 22, 206cm a bit more size & strength he will be a handful imo.

We just need to play the kids & give them game experience, I don't mean gift them games but some of our more senior players aren't playing that good.
Pickett & McIntosh should not be in the team. Banks is another one that should be playing it's why I don't believe McQualter will get the job he still keeps playing players that shouldn't be getting a game based of past performances.

Fact is most teams rely on their best players & we have issues we need more talent but I do not believe the current players kids & players we have on the list are a complete disaster.

 

[nut]

Fair enough personally feel you only needed one and then head to the draft for best available mid

We also didn’t really pay for Hopper until this draft… we’ve had him for a year basically for free to settle into the club.

 

[nut]

This thread really needs more Carlton supporters to explain how to win 3 premierships in 4 years….. and how to build a list.

 

[Grrr]

You can only really take it a season or two at a time.
Of course Richmond will not be winning a GF in that time, how many sides will be in serious contention.
But the bones are still there.

We have been held up in our progress by playing players that have reached their peak and are delining.
Cotchin and Riewoldt are the obvious ones. But Graham, MacIntosh, Pickett (to a lesser extent, played forward so taken one for the side). Grimes is a shadow of his former self. These players have been played in front of developing youth because we have been playing for 8th spot and the match committee have been to conservative/loyal, a hangover from Dimma's days.

This is our line-up next year or two could look like this.

B: Young Balta Vlastuin
HG: Short Broad Rioli
C: Banks Tarranto Ross
HF: Dusty Miller Gibcus
B: Baker Bauer Cumberland
R: Nank Prestia Bolton
Int: Hopper, Dow, Brown, Clarke, Sonsie

Backup who are or look like AFL players: Mansell, Soldo, Ryan, Rioli Jnr, Tresize, Ralph Smith, Coulthard and a few others who have been missing through injury.

Gibcus has missed the entire year. Dow was very impressive against the Saints, his second game in 18 months. Banks has been good and should be playing but they won't drop certain players. Sure a few like Lynch, Prestia and Dusty are getting on, but Dusty on the weekend looked about as good as he has in about 2-3 seasons. Great players don't just fall off cliff at 30+. Need a few more ready made kids, which can be found in the draft.

We will not be winning a GF as stated, but we should be competitive next season or so, then who knows what will happen.

 

[BG32]

Could Jack Riewoldt have gone around again?

 

[Grrr]

Could Jack Riewoldt have gone around again?

No. Has had a few very good games, but good call Jack.

 

[old55]

We beat Geelong earlier in the year so it's interesting that you say they much better younger talent than us & were very competitive twice against your outfit who have imo the best list the AFL.

I'm not deluded in thinking we don't need more young talent we clearly do but we also have talent that we need to start playing & developing.

You beat them because your 23-28yo talent shades theirs by a reasonable amount, but it's younger than that where there's a big problem.

 

[Mr Magic]

Could Jack Riewoldt have gone around again?

Yes and should have.

He is past his best but just to help with our transition, even if in a supporting, forward structure role at times

We where not going to rise next year anyway but it will be hard without JR in terms of character and keeping things together.

I see a few leaving the Tigers end of year and the youngsters will need some support apart from Hopper and TT

I think some do not appreciate how bare the cupboard could be next year in terms of the emotional connection with fans. JR was memories, he could go around and just do his thing and keep the memories going. It is going to be a very tough four years or so for the Tigers and JR leaving now just brings that forward and creates a non measured response I think

We are going to have to build and if JR went around one more time just to help would have been nice

 

[Footy Smarts]

You beat them because your 23-28yo talent shades theirs by a reasonable amount, but it's younger than that where there's a big problem.

That and the fact it was clearly the weakest team Geelong has fielded all year. We're not exactly injury free right now but none of Bews, Knevitt, Dempsey or Parfitt (currently sub) can crack the starting 22. They all started that night with Jhye Clark debuting as sub.

We were missing Bowes, Close, Dangerfield, De Koning, Cam Guthrie, Jack Henry, Menegola, Rohan, Stanley and Stengle.

Taking anything out of a game when a team is missing that many of their best players (except that they have injury problems) is silly.

 

[GastevsBeard]

Could Jack Riewoldt have gone around again?

I think he could have, simply because we don't have any KPF prospects he is holding back (we lost Chol, CCJ during the flag years)

He could still prove to be a handful if Lynch is playing, but obviously the time was right for Jack

 

[Cotchin 9]

You can only really take it a season or two at a time.
Of course Richmond will not be winning a GF in that time, how many sides will be in serious contention.
But the bones are still there.

We have been held up in our progress by playing players that have reached their peak and are delining.
Cotchin and Riewoldt are the obvious ones. But Graham, MacIntosh, Pickett (to a lesser extent, played forward so taken one for the side). Grimes is a shadow of his former self. These players have been played in front of developing youth because we have been playing for 8th spot and the match committee have been to conservative/loyal, a hangover from Dimma's days.

This is our line-up next year or two could look like this.

B: Young Balta Vlastuin
HG: Short Broad Rioli
C: Banks Tarranto Ross
HF: Dusty Miller Gibcus
B: Baker Bauer Cumberland
R: Nank Prestia Bolton
Int: Hopper, Dow, Brown, Clarke, Sonsie

Backup who are or look like AFL players: Mansell, Soldo, Ryan, Rioli Jnr, Tresize, Ralph Smith, Coulthard and a few others who have been missing through injury.

Gibcus has missed the entire year. Dow was very impressive against the Saints, his second game in 18 months. Banks has been good and should be playing but they won't drop certain players. Sure a few like Lynch, Prestia and Dusty are getting on, but Dusty on the weekend looked about as good as he has in about 2-3 seasons. Great players don't just fall off cliff at 30+. Need a few more ready made kids, which can be found in the draft.

We will not be winning a GF as stated, but we should be competitive next season or so, then who knows what will happen.

Lynch?