Hmm. First of all, I think that North Melbourne, West Coast and even Hawthorn's spots are vulnerable next year.
If as many as 3 do lodge out of the 8 (doesn't have to be the three I mentioned), then I think Melbourne and St Kilda will at least be 2 out of the 3 replacers. That leaves, in my opinion, one of Port Adelaide, Richmond, Collingwood, Gold Coast and Essendon to make it.
- Collingwood because they had injuries and when they were on fire they really played well. Could improve.
- Port Adelaide because Ryder could provide them with a genuine ruck option, which could be their catalyst to making finals. But, I just don't know because they haven't made finals in two years now and no longer sure they are a Ryder away from becoming a top 8 side again.
- Essendon because their youth have been fast-tracked in their development this year IMO and with an easy draw they could surprise.
- Gold Coast because they had a huge issue with injuries this year. This could rectify next year and they could improve in performance greatly. If it continues though, they could struggle again. If they lose a lot of players to other teams, they could also struggle with that.
- Richmond because this could be a down year. Richmond is usually a side that doesn't suffer a lot of injuries to their star players so this year has been a relatively injury-riddled year to previous years. If they change their gameplan, recruit star players and their youth can take the next step, then yeah, they could make finals. They could fall as far as the bottom two with the way they are tracking though.
So, if there are indeed around 3 changes to the current top 8, then I can see Richmond making finals again over the others if things go their way over the offseason and next year. They have the most recent finals experience out of those 5 listed above I guess.
If there is only 1 or 2 changes, then I don't think they'll make it over Melbourne and St Kilda. If they do make finals though, then they are only one win away from making a semi final. It has proved too much to achieve in the past 4 years, but I guess things can change dramatically over 12 months.
All in all, I don't think it is a delusional thing that Hardwick said. Optimistic? Yes. Overly optimistic? Maybe. Delusional? No. It isn't like Hardwick is planning to undergo a full-on rebuild and still expect to win a final in 2017. He is planning to retain his top end players that got him to finals for 3 years in a row so it is possible with a potentially easier draw to make finals and a possible improvement to the lower end talent that Richmond win one next year.