Autopsy Richmond v Carlton, AFL Rd 1 2020 - Thursday 19 March 2020 - 7:25 PM (AEST) - Teams announced

[Grrr]

Dow is a case study in a junior gun’s game not translating to AFL. Would be good to see how he’d go with 10kgs stacked on, as he has the read he just doesn’t have the frame to compete at the stoppages.

He does have reasonably pace and goal sense (despite a horrible set shot), so maybe we can develop him as a mid-sized forward.

I think best case scenario is he finds some specific niche and becomes a decent role player, ala Jake Melksham.

Dow never dominated TAC. Played about 5 games in his draft year at Bendigo and dominated one. He played mainly school football which is not at the same level. But he did look to have great potential due to burst of speed and agility. Early days yet, but a little surprised he hasn't put on a bit more weight, as an inside outside mid a bit of muscle wouldn't go astray. Seems to lack any confidence and probably should have played more VFL to give him that.

 

[_RT_]

I think the whole play kids who don't deserve is how sides stuff up rebuilds because lets face it 90% of players who are good enough to make it at AFL level will force their way into the team anyway. Rebuilds is more about maximising draft capital and getting as many chances as possible to draft high quality players.

I mean look at Richmond's rebuild - Hardwick playing all those hack kids in 2010/11 didn't really have a huge positive impact on the future at all

It wasn't just hack kids that we played though. We played the younger ones who we also believed had long term futures. Some of them made the grade and others were spat out the other side quite quickly, which allowed us to keep on turning over the list and bringing in the next wave. It also meant that we suffered some painful losses that we might not have had we been playing a few more experienced blokes.

IMO Carlton seems to be focused more on keeping results respectable by relying on the older blokes to carry the load rather than putting the heat on the kids coming through to shoulder the load. I was listening the other night and one comment that pricked my ears was a commentator saying that people at Carlton believe that Kreuzer could play another 5 years, then you look at who was the main players in the side and it was still the likes of Murphy Simpson Kruezer Casboult Jones E.Curnow that were being asked to shoulder the load.

I understand a few blokes are coming back from injuries at the moment, but if I was a Carlton fans I'd much prefer to see a bunch of younger kids getting a run in place of some older long term servants who have given their all, but their best is probably behind them.

 

[Ambrosia]

It wasn't just hack kids that we played though. We played the younger ones who we also believed had long term futures. Some of them made the grade and others were spat out the other side quite quickly, which allowed us to keep on turning over the list and bringing in the next wave. It also meant that we suffered some painful losses that we might not have had we been playing a few more experienced blokes.

Who outside of first round draft picks made it from those early days in the Hardwick rebuild? Grimes and Astbury are the only blokes that you could possibly argue Richmond developed using that method from Hardwick's first 4 drafts at Richmond.

IMO Carlton seems to be focused more on keeping results respectable by relying on the older blokes to carry the load rather than putting the heat on the kids coming through to shoulder the load. I was listening the other night and one comment that pricked my ears was a commentator saying that people at Carlton believe that Kreuzer could play another 5 years, then you look at who was the main players in the side and it was still the likes of Murphy Simpson Kruezer Casboult Jones E.Curnow that were being asked to shoulder the load.

I understand a few blokes are coming back from injuries at the moment, but if I was a Carlton fans I'd much prefer to see a bunch of younger kids getting a run in place of some older long term servants who have given their all, but their best is probably behind them.

I'm just not sure there is any evidence to suggest that it's beneficial to develop talent that way.

 

[Skull Face]

If you really think that's the reason for Carlton's awful performance minus the free kicks, then you'll be in for a world of shock.

You're relying on McKay, Curnow and an ageing Betts. Right.

What a terrible position to be in, relying on a couple of 20 yr old KP forwards that will be with us for the next 10 years together, we are doomed.

Your pitiful attempt at trolling is embarrassing for you.

 

[Sinjin Smith]

Seriously what's the go with Dow?

You often get high picks that struggle for a few years early in their career because the traits that helped them dominate at junior level don't translate against big AFL bodies.

LDU and Rayner in that boat. It took Cunnington a while to get going, same with Cotchin.

But Dow doesn't look like he's got size to come. His foot skills are just not up to the standard required, let alone top 3 in a draft.

What do Carlton fans see him doing?

Along with Setterfield he's a big worry for me, he's shown some glimpses of skill and all is not lost but if we are going to come and challenge top8/4 then damn these guys need to get a move on. It's 50/50 if he is a bust and thacts on both our recruiting and development

 

[JayJ20]

What a terrible position to be in, relying on a couple of 20 yr old KP forwards that will be with us for the next 10 years together, we are doomed.

Your pitiful attempt at trolling is embarrassing for you.

I'm actually not trolling but ok.

 

[_RT_]

Who outside of first round draft picks made it from those early days in the Hardwick rebuild? Grimes and Astbury are the only blokes that you could possibly argue Richmond developed using that method from Hardwick's first 4 drafts at Richmond.




I'm just not sure there is any evidence to suggest that it's beneficial to develop talent that way.

Nahas 64 games under Hardwick was at the club the year before Hardwick arrived
Griffiths 63 games in his 7 years at Richmond before early retirement due to concussion
Batchelor 84 games
McIntosh 90 games
Dea 31 games at Richmond ended up with a 70 game career
Nason 23 games
Lloyd 57 games
Miles 61 games

The above didn't necessarily become stars, but were young players who in the first 5 years of our rebuild under Hardwick who were played ahead of some of more established older blokes.

What it meant is that the focus was on developing those who were looked upon as having a long term future. Again not all of them made it at the level, but we gave them a shot as you never know if you don't try. Same thing might happen with the kids currently at Carlton, you may just unearth a player from an unlikely source if you expose them to the level.

 

[Skull Face]

I'm actually not trolling but ok.

You actually are if you think having young kpfs is a bad thing and you clearly are by ignoring the other factors mentioned.

You have been called out, accept it and move on to troll another day.

 

[JayJ20]

You actually are if you think having young kpfs is a bad thing and you clearly are by ignoring the other factors mentioned.

You have been called out, accept it and move on to troll another day.

I'm trolling because I am criticising Carlton's list. Lol.

McKay and Curnow aren't proven and reliable top end talent. Curnow is good, but he's injury prone. We know all about talented forwards on the sideline.

In the long run, St Kilda, Brisbane and GC are better placed because they have more talent on their list than Carlton unless things change.

Carlton have good top end talent, but the depth is concerning. That's not trolling. A list isn't just composed of top end talent unless you're GWS.

 

[The Warlord]

Along with Setterfield he's a big worry for me, he's shown some glimpses of skill and all is not lost but if we are going to come and challenge top8/4 then damn these guys need to get a move on. It's 50/50 if he is a bust and thacts on both our recruiting and development

Every few weeks he does something where you're like WOW, generally running through a stoppage and looking absolutely top shelf. But that's once every few weeks.

 

[Skull Face]

I'm trolling because I am criticising Carlton's list. Lol.

McKay and Curnow aren't proven and reliable top end talent. Curnow is good, but he's injury prone. We know all about talented forwards on the sideline.

In the long run, St Kilda, Brisbane and GC are better placed because they have more talent on their list than Carlton unless things change.

Carlton have good top end talent, but the depth is concerning. That's not trolling. A list isn't just composed of top end talent unless you're GWS.

Just replying to say I didn't even bother reading any of that because you are a troll.

 

[La Dispute]

Every few weeks he does something where you're like WOW, generally running through a stoppage and looking absolutely top shelf. But that's once every few weeks.

His best asset is he can burst into space really quickly, but it’s just not a sustainable trick and good opposition can shut it down pretty quickly.

The silver lining for Dow is soon there is there is good to be no expectation heaped on him, and he may actually relax a little on the field. He looks overwhelmed by every contest at the moment, and this certainly wasn’t the case in his first season.

 

[The Warlord]

His best asset is he can burst into space really quickly, but it’s just not a sustainable trick and good opposition can shut it down pretty quickly.

The silver lining for Dow is soon there is there is good to be no expectation heaped on him, and he may actually relax a little on the field. He looks overwhelmed by every contest at the moment, and this certainly wasn’t the case in his first season.

Could well be one of those blokes who ends being traded and then does better at his new club imo.

 

[La Dispute]

I didn't say Martin and Cripps are your only good players. 5-6 players won't be enough to do anything really. Depth is concerning. Carlton and Brisbane went through a similar rebuilding phase. Brisbane are stacked with talent. St Kilda also went through a similar phase. Not sure what happened to Carlton's when it's still fairly light on talent.

Dow apparently was pick 3. Another missed one.

GC are now stacking their side with talent. Will quickly pass Carlton if they don't choose right.

You said we looked light on talent, to which I provided a list of 5-6 players who were current and/or future A-graders in addition to the 2 you mentioned. That’s 8. Most very good teams have roughly that number, so in terms of having top shelf performers we are fine.

Our lack of depth is obvious, but we’re not too badly stocked for our next tier.

Fisher, JSOS, Williamson, Newnes, McGovern is a good set of foot soldiers to compliment our guns.

Not sure what the purpose of the Gold Coast tangent was. They currently don’t have any elite players, and like us in our first few years of our rebuild have a bunch of young guys who’s ceiling is unclear. It’s not as though their success will prohibit our own either.

Also important to document when various teams’ rebuilds began. Brisbane started stockpiling talent as early as 2013; St Kilda as early as 2011. We are at exactly where we’d expect for the timeline of the list build.

 

[Do the Dew]

I'm trolling because I am criticising Carlton's list. Lol.

McKay and Curnow aren't proven and reliable top end talent. Curnow is good, but he's injury prone. We know all about talented forwards on the sideline.

In the long run, St Kilda, Brisbane and GC are better placed because they have more talent on their list than Carlton unless things change.

Carlton have good top end talent, but the depth is concerning. That's not trolling. A list isn't just composed of top end talent unless you're GWS.

Rule 1 of BF main board. Thou shalt not criticize Carlton’s list, because it was crafted by lord and savior SOS.

Spoons will drop off once their older crew retire who do most of the heavy lifting (bar Cripps). Can see them falling in a hole again once those guys are gone.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[JayJ20]

You said we looked light on talent, to which I provided a list of 5-6 players who were current and/or future A-graders in addition to the 2 you mentioned. That’s 8. Most very good teams have roughly that number, so in terms of having top shelf performers we are fine.

Our lack of depth is obvious, but we’re not too badly stocked for our next tier.

Fisher, JSOS, Williamson, Newnes, McGovern is a good set of foot soldiers to compliment our guns.

Not sure what the purpose of the Gold Coast tangent was. They currently don’t have any elite players, and like us in our first few years of our rebuild have a bunch of young guys who’s ceiling is unclear. It’s not as though their success will prohibit our own either.

Also important to document when various teams’ rebuilds began. Brisbane started stockpiling talent as early as 2013; St Kilda as early as 2011. We are at exactly where we’d expect for the timeline of the list build.

St Kilda finished 6th in 2011. Carlton 5th.

In 2013 Carlton finished 6th (but 9th on the ladder). Brisbane finished 12th, but Carlton got the leg up on both teams that year by taking Cripps. Brisbane and Carlton especially are definitely comparable.
Until I see otherwise, I'm not too optimistic on Carlton's immediate future.

 

[Sinjin Smith]

Could well be one of those blokes who ends being traded and then does better at his new club imo.

Tarryn Thomas, Zurhaar????

 

[The Warlord]

Tarryn Thomas, Zurhaar????

No, they'll be career North premiership players.

We're talking about Dow btw.

 

[Tiger Soze]

Seriously what's the go with Dow?

You often get high picks that struggle for a few years early in their career because the traits that helped them dominate at junior level don't translate against big AFL bodies.

LDU and Rayner in that boat. It took Cunnington a while to get going, same with Cotchin.

I wouldn’t expect you to know but Trent only had a slow start because he battled achilles issues in his first 2 years. 3rd year he was in the leadership group as he gained fitness and by his 4th year was having 30 possession games along with 15 Brownlow votes and the BnF at Tigerland.

Became Captain and awarded the Brownlow for the same year aged only 22.

 

[The Warlord]

I wouldn’t expect you to know but Trent only had a slow start because he battled achilles issues in his first 2 years. 3rd year he was in the leadership group as he gained fitness and by his 4th year was having 30 possession games along with 15 Brownlow votes and the BnF at Tigerland.

Became Captain and awarded the Brownlow for the same year aged only 22.

I did know that. I can also remember the dirty little sniper's hit from behind on Sam Wright in 2010.

LDU has had shoulder issues and groin issues. Cunnington broke his foot the week before Round 1 started in his first year.

These things often happen. It is kind of my point.

What's Dow's story?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

As I said to the other Blues fan, IMO a new coach is the start of a rebuild as they implement their own game style, they change up players roles, they recruit and delist/trade players that no longer suit the way they want to play.

I also said to another that IMO Teague needs to quickly move away from having the older blokes as key players in the side and start fast tracking the younger bloke they want to have replace them.

So I'm actually quite serious about discussing the Carlton rebuild, because all banter aside there is some promising signs, but IMO they need to be more aggressive in how they go about it and take a bit more short term pain to make quicker and bigger gains.

I can't go along with a new coach equalling a rebuild as such. A new game plan isn't rebuilding a list. Look at Malthouse. He came in, forgot all about how our list was situated and set about implementing a Collingwood game plan and he didn't have the cattle for it. We only won games under Malthouse when we were allowed to play our previous natural running game. He destroyed players but never set about rebuilding an aging list.

We have rebuilt in earnest for 5 drafts now. It would have been 4 had the Papley trade gone through but we went youth in the draft again.

Bolton was fast tracking the younger blokes and we barely won a game while doing it. There has to be a balance.

On Thursday, we played 8 players aged 19-22, 8 aged 24-27 and 6 28-30+. It's a pretty decent balance. Kreuzer has gone down again and may be just about done. Pittonet will add to the middle group or TDK will add to the younger group. Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay will add to the younger group and will be walk up starts when fit.

Murphy, Simpson and Ed Curnow were not our leading players on Thursday so that bodes well for the future. They are there for experience balance and Betts will be there as our only genuine small forward if fit. Could well be that Liam Jones is the oldest player in our best 22 next year at 30.

If you look at our younger group:

Weitering has played 77 games out of a possible 89
Petrevski-Seton 65 out of a possible 67
Silvagni 61 out of a possible 89
Fisher 56 out of a possible 67
Dow 40 out of a possible 45 and we can't exactly say they were all deserved
Walsh has played every game

Our main areas are key position forwards and ruck and they take more time and cop more injuries. 2 are injured and there is no doubt TDK is ready to play and learn on the job. If we could play Pittonet and TDK in the same side, it would be good. Can we play them both with Levi also in there? Not sure.

Maybe Gov or McKay at FF, Levi at CHF, TDK in a forward pocket relieving Pittonet in the ruck. Certainly Kreuzer can't play forward so we're not losing versatility by replacing him with Pittonet and TDK is a better ruck than Levi.

Of those not getting a go at the moment, O'Brien is a ready made Newnes replacement. I expect the dynamic to change as the season progresses, and hope Teague is not going to select older players out of such sense of loyalty.

 

[The Warlord]

Weitering has played 77 games out of a possible 89
Petrevski-Seton 65 out of a possible 67
Silvagni 61 out of a possible 89
Fisher 56 out of a possible 67
Dow 40 out of a possible 45 and we can't exactly say they were all deserved
Walsh has played every game

Weitering is tracking to the premier key defender of the comp in his peak.

Petrevski-Seton looks good across half back and will get better as the team gets better around him.

Silvagni is role player at best, every team needs them and he can defintely be a best 22 200 game player like a say Shaun Atley.

Fisher I like and is a goer but is never going to be a top 50 player in the comp, see above.

Dow ... ???????????????, isn't yet a Jono O'Rourke level bust, but not far off.

Walsh will be a 250 game + player, mainstay of the midfield, but I don't see him as ever being a top 3/5 mid in the comp, but being top 10 most of his career.

 

[Tiger Soze]

I did know that. I can also remember the dirty little sniper's hit from behind on Sam Wright in 2010.

LDU has had shoulder issues and groin issues. Cunnington broke his foot the week before Round 1 started in his first year.

These things often happen. It is kind of my point.

What's Dow's story?

Your point was the traits they have at junior level don’t translate to senior level against bigger bodies. How does that translate to Trent when he hadn’t played a game because of the injury that set in prior to his first preseason?
Can’t help you with Dow.

 

[The Warlord]

Your point was the traits they have at junior level don’t translate to senior level against bigger bodies. How does that translate to Trent when he hadn’t played a game because of the injury that set in prior to his first preseason?

And you might find Luke’s form dropped off whilst his dad was fighting cancer.

Can’t help you with Dow.

OK.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Weitering is tracking to the premier key defender of the comp in his peak.

Petrevski-Seton looks good across half back and will get better as the team gets better around him.

Silvagni is role player at best, every team needs them and he can defintely be a best 22 200 game player like a say Shaun Atley.

Fisher I like and is a goer but is never going to be a top 50 player in the comp, see above.

Dow ... ???????????????, isn't yet a Jono O'Rourke level bust, but not far off.

Walsh will be a 250 game + player, mainstay of the midfield, but I don't see him as ever being a top 3/5 mid in the comp, but being top 10 most of his career.

Their quality wasn't really the point though. It's whether we have been fast tracking young players.