Autopsy Richmond's backline ranked #16 in the AFL

[Grockadoc]

Found this on the AFL website:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-12-29/who-has-the-best-defence-we-rank-every-club

16. RICHMOND

B: Kamdyn McIntosh, Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes
HB: Bachar Houli, David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin
C: Shaun Grigg, Dustin Martin, Brandon Ellis
HF: Josh Caddy, Jack Riewoldt, Shane Edwards
F: Daniel Rioli, Ben Griffiths, Sam Lloyd
Foll: Shaun Hampson, Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia
I/C: Anthony Miles, Corey Ellis, Connor Menadue, Jayden Short

Depth
Midfield: Reece Conca, Kane Lambert, Toby Nankervis, Jack Graham, Taylor Hunt, Ivan Maric, Jacob Townsend, Ivan Soldo
Forwards: Ben Lennon, Shai Bolton, Daniel Butler, Mabior Chol, Callum Moore, Tyson Stengle
Defenders: Jake Batchelor, Oleg Markov, Steven Morris, Nathan Broad, Nathan Drummond, Todd Elton, Ryan Garthwaite, Jason Castagna

Richmond's defence is headed by one of the very best there is – three-time All Australian Alex Rance. But it all becomes a bit workmanlike from there, and you had to feel for the over-worked Rance at times last season. What the Richmond back half needs is a bit more star power and 2017 shapes as a year when the Tigers need to have a good look at the likes of Oleg Markov and Nathan Broad to see what they might bring into the mix.

Now whilst I think that they are spot on in regards to being over reliant on Rance and the rest of our defenders being good, average players, I would just like to propose two points in response.

1: Our backline conceded the third fewest points in 2013 and 2015, and conceded the 8th lowest in 2014 (2nd lowest points conceded between rounds 13 and 22).

2: We have been ranked as having a worse backline than Collingwood and Carlton. One team just traded out the bulk of their key defenders, and the other is reliant on a couple of 29+ years olds and a second year player.

Anyone elses thoughts?

 

[tropicaltiger]

dont worry about it, article written by young clowns

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

only as good as your last game apparently

 

[UpTheTigs]

Far too reliant on Rance, but he does it all because thats the way he plays. I think we will be a lot closer to our finals seasons backline in 2017.

 

[nick1408]

I look a t it this way - the backline is thin. If Rance goes down it is stuffed. Grimes is a good second tall but couldn't cover the best tall without a Rance-type player. Houli has been good in the past but I feel he really dropped off last year. Markov will play the majority of the season so that's good. For the crap Astbury gets he does fill a role for us, and has done so in the past. He needs to find that previous form to be taken seriously again. The problem is, Rance and Grimes apart, there are a lot of bit-part players and stopgaps. As soon as there is an injory or rotation it becomes very thin. I don't have the same concerns with the midfield, and although the forward line is short of a backup tall the players around are at least genuine forwards and not converted midfielders or smalls shoe-horned into a position they don't excel at or have never played.

 

[Grockadoc]

I look a t it this way - the backline is thin. If Rance goes down it is stuffed. Grimes is a good second tall but couldn't cover the best tall without a Rance-type player. Houli has been good in the past but I feel he really dropped off last year. Markov will play the majority of the season so that's good. For the crap Astbury gets he does fill a role for us, and has done so in the past. He needs to find that previous form to be taken seriously again. The problem is, Rance and Grimes apart, there are a lot of bit-part players and stopgaps. As soon as there is an injory or rotation it becomes very thin. I don't have the same concerns with the midfield, and although the forward line is short of a backup tall the players around are at least genuine forwards and not converted midfielders or smalls shoe-horned into a position they don't excel at or have never played.

Not denying that, but why are we ranked so low considering there are at least 3 teams above us with similar depth concerns, with older defenders, and one key injury away from being screwed, most notable, Freo, Carlton and Collingwood. We have a better backline than those three at least.

 

[Mr Unbelievable]

* these campaigner authors

Ashley Browne, Ben Collins and Lee Gaskin

 

[SplintWhisky]

I look a t it this way - the backline is thin. If Rance goes down it is stuffed. Grimes is a good second tall but couldn't cover the best tall without a Rance-type player. Houli has been good in the past but I feel he really dropped off last year. Markov will play the majority of the season so that's good. For the crap Astbury gets he does fill a role for us, and has done so in the past. He needs to find that previous form to be taken seriously again. The problem is, Rance and Grimes apart, there are a lot of bit-part players and stopgaps. As soon as there is an injory or rotation it becomes very thin. I don't have the same concerns with the midfield, and although the forward line is short of a backup tall the players around are at least genuine forwards and not converted midfielders or smalls shoe-horned into a position they don't excel at or have never played.

Houli was injured for most of the year then came back and was played on the wing so you cant blame him for a down year

 

[docko911]

Yet we have the best defender in the league...

The only reason our backline struggled in 2016 was because of a disfunctional forward line with *s like Vickery offering no defensive pressure and a pretty average midfield outside our top 2-3.

Vlastuin, Grimes, Rance and Houli would walk into any teams backline. Astbury not so much and I have no idea who plays our other defensive post these days.

 

[TheProwler]

She'l be right, we recruited a skinny kid this year who will be ready in three or so years

 

[Grockadoc]

Rance, Astbury, Grimes, Morris and Vlastuin are all solid defensively.

I don't think our backline is as bad as they think. Our backline has to contend with midfielders who don't tackle or chase, and get bombarded with inside 50's because of a gameplan that breaks down when space is closed down and we turn it over.

A more freeflowing gameplan, better depth in the midfield as well as the addition of a genuine two way runner in Prestia should be enough to see our backline back in the upper echelons of stinginess, at least in my opinion.

It's no coincidence the slower we have played gameplan wise, the more we get scored against.

 

[shaky]

Found this on the AFL website:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-12-29/who-has-the-best-defence-we-rank-every-club



Now whilst I think that they are spot on in regards to being over reliant on Rance and the rest of our defenders being good, average players, I would just like to propose two points in response.

1: Our backline conceded the third fewest points in 2013 and 2015, and conceded the 8th lowest in 2014 (2nd lowest points conceded between rounds 13 and 22).

2: We have been ranked as having a worse backline than Collingwood and Carlton. One team just traded out the bulk of their key defenders, and the other is reliant on a couple of 29+ years olds and a second year player.

Anyone elses thoughts?

I don't think you need to look any further than the fact they named McKintosh in the BP to see they have no effing idea.

 

[Joker91]

Stress less boys....
Leppitsch is back. Our backline was one of the best in the comp (statistically) when he was here.

 

[Nantes]

"Are they ranking the defence of the whole ground/22 players, or just the back line "defenders"? If it was the defence of the whole 22, after last season 18th wouldn't surpise me, especially with the defensive forwards."


I posted this in another thread, if it is team defence it makes sense, but as far as leaking so many goals this year I think that had a lot to do with the poor midfield.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

I wonder where that backline would be ranked if they wore black and white stripes or had a red sash instead of a yellow one.

Also this so called backline kept the Dogs to 6 goals to three qtr time.
They kept the Hawks to 7 goals to three qtr time.
They kept the cats to 4 goals to three qtr time.

At this stage we were in full experimentation mode and in all 3 games we ran out of legs and were over run in the last qtr.

One thing I have learnt in my time is too never write a team off who have had one bad season after having several good ones, more so when they contain guns in all three parts of the ground because teams who have 6 plus guns in their team very rarely have two bad seasons in a row and if they do then it means they are all on the wrong side of 30 of which ours are not.

 

[Tigereye11]

I'd imagine that it is probably based solely on points scored against in 2016 regardless of any players to come back. (hello Essendon, Hurley is pretty handy) or past seasons. So provides no insight for 2017 basically. Disregarded.

 

[KiwiTiger]

Stress less boys....
Leppitsch is back. Our backline was one of the best in the comp (statistically) when he was here.

He's coaching the forwards in 2017.

Haere Ra

 

[Madtiger2006]

Rubbish article. There's not much between ours and the dogs backlines. They have 3 players over 30 in theirs lol

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Garthwaite changes everything......

 

[RunningBounce]

Anyone elses thoughts?

My thoughts are that the media have twigged to the underlying cultures of the fanbase of each club. They don't actually believe what they write. It's only a prediction so there's no chance of being held accountable. So they make s**t up according to a formula that gets them the most attention.

The media get more attention from positive articles about Collingwood. The Toothless Ones don't take criticism well. Ditto Essendon. They just won't buy a paper or click a link that bags their team. It's bad business for the media to be negative about those clubs.

We love the hate. The more negative the media are about Richmond, the more attention they get from Richmond supporters. It says plenty about us.

I don't think we have a top 8 defence. It's shallow. But we certainly have a better defence than Collingwood, Carlton, Port (Hartlett at HBF? Yeah, like MacIntosh plays BP...) and Freo. Possibly better than Melbourne and Norf.

Don't believe the hype.

 

[Concatenate]

Rance, Astbury, Grimes, Morris and Vlastuin are all solid defensively.

I don't think our backline is as bad as they think. Our backline has to contend with midfielders who don't tackle or chase, and get bombarded with inside 50's because of a gameplan that breaks down when space is closed down and we turn it over.

A more freeflowing gameplan, better depth in the midfield as well as the addition of a genuine two way runner in Prestia should be enough to see our backline back in the upper echelons of stinginess, at least in my opinion.

It's no coincidence the slower we have played gameplan wise, the more we get scored against.

This.

Given how poor we were keeping the ball up forward and had limited midfield pressure, no wonder we were getting bombarded - not even Rance can stop that. That last game debacle vs the swans, had plenty of cocky swans at the game around me talking up how Rance was overrated and how buddy owned him.....said would love to see how their 'gun' Heath Grundy would go battling with a non existent pressure up the ground

 

[Goldust]

My thoughts: We need an upgrade on Astbury, but we don't have one on the list. Offers nothing in the way of offence or creativity.
McIntosh should not be played anywhere near the backline and would hope sanity prevails and it's not a consideration.
Houli will need to reinvent himself .... he's been more than worked out by the opposition who can easily nullify him, or expose his weaknesses.
Vlastuin should be in the midfield ..... No I actually think we're best served having him across half back.
Outside Steve Morris, we lack a player who can attempt to shut down, let alone shut down an Eddie Betts or Cyril Rioli type small forward.
We'be absolutely stuffed if Alex Rance went down and although I don't rate him highly, we'd be stuffed if Astbury went down as if we have zero depth. Elton or Chol ain't going to cut it as the second tall.
Overall, I wouldn't rate us 16th. Would have us ahead of Collingwood, Carlton, Gold Coast, probably Freo and on-par with Port. So probably 10th or 11th.
And needs to be said, not even going to bother to scroll up to see who posted it, but if someone is comparing our back six to this:
B. Dale Morris, Marcus Adams, Matthew Boyd
HB: Robert Murphy, Easton Wood, Jason Johannisen
Remove those rocks in you head!
All of Morris, Adams, Boyd, Murphy, Wood and Johannisen would stroll right into our backline, regardless of age. So too would Suckling.

 

[Lsta062]

We were bottom 4 for points conceded last season. But, like others have mentioned, that had more to do with the midfield.

Richmond conceded the 5th most opposition inside 50 entries while having the 2nd least inside 50 entries. While of course our forward line and defence don't escape scrutiny (they were below par last year), that tells me that our midfield last year played a role in our lack of scoring and our struggle in keeping opposition to a low score.

I tried my best to remove the midfield influence and just look at each team's forward line potency using goals alone (and not behinds) and inside 50 entries and also had a look at each team's defence using only goals conceded and opposition inside 50 entries.




This table is probably really badly arranged (I am no data expert), so I'll explain what I mean.

Few points:
- The "%" refers to "goals/inside 50s X 100".
- I didn't include behinds because some are rushed behinds and to be honest, thought that goals alone would be enough to analyse these stats.
- I know stats don't tell the whole story.

Anyways, from this table I hoped to take away the midfield influence on a team and look at their offence and defence in isolation as much as I can.

In the percentage of goals scored per inside 50s, we ranked 11th last season, while we ranked 15th for overall goals scored. In the percentage of goals conceded per opposition inside 50 entries, we ranked 12th while ranking 15th for goals conceded.

None of those numbers are particularly great by the way, but note how we rank higher in the percentage of goals per inside 50/percentage of goals concede per opposition inside 50 than the actual raw number of goals scored and conceded.

I interpret from this that a large portion of our issues come from the midfield considering that we rank 17th for inside 50 entries and rank 14th for opposition inside 50 entries too. if we had 300 more inside 50s (like some teams have) at the exact rate of goals scored per inside 50s as we did this year, then we would have had roughly about 73 more goals than this year, which is about 438 more points through goals alone. This would put us around the top 6 offensively. If we leaked about 100 less inside 50s and retained similar goals conceded per opposition inside 50 entry, then we would have reduced our conceding by about 26 goals, which would roughly be 156 points (only goals are considered).

Anyways, the TL;DR version is that the forward line and backline of last year were below par, but not as bad as a 15th-placed goals for and against are making it out to be if you consider goals scored per inside 50 entry/goals conceded per opposition inside 50 entry. It is our midfield/gameplan that was probably a huge factor in our scoring and defending issues. Let's hope the improvement of our midfield and the changing of our gameplan gives us the improvement in offence/defence that we need.

 

[Groupie_]

Colonwood pre season December premiers again

 

[cairo tiger]

Truth hurts - we could have strengthened this but instead went and got short people go figure