No major loss but woods lack of development types that of north inability to get elite talent to potential. Same goes to atley
Analysis Ricks Analysis (The Shinboner Blog)
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No major loss but woods lack of development types that of north inability to get elite talent to potential. Same goes to atley
Grogg
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Yep no disagreement there, but that has nothing to do with:
Also in response to your comment here:
Player development is a totally different subject and I think the coaching staff are already taking measures to rectify that deficiency.
Hopefully, the mass replacement after kpmg consultancy last year was the start, at least for the first step. Get the right professionals in the right position. For too long we look to heart and soul type who might not be the best person for that job.....
GarnerSmash
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Its a really fine line between totally gutting the list and maintaining enough depth to not fill the list with a whole host of utter gash, which we then just cut a year or two later, meaning constant major list turnovers. I've taken a look at what could happen over the next three years below, and tried to keep some of those we want to cut on the list for depth. Event with this taken into account, the cuts are deeeeeeeeeeep in each of the next three years. By 2023 we are going to need to recruit and develop really, really, really really well to be a good side.
2020
Lists reduce to 40 from 44. Delist 11, meaning we need to add 7 players (1x FA/Trade and 6x draft or 2x FA/Trade and 5x draft). Personally I'd keep EVW because if he can get his body right there is a real player in there. One more year. I would also keep a number of older players on one year deals to as depth.
Delist
Ahern
Crocker
Durdin
Garner
Hosie
Jacobs
McGuiness
Murphy
Wood
Tyson
Williams
Retain
Macmillan (1 year)
Turner (1 year)
Vickers-Willis (1 year)
Pittard (1 year)
Daw (1 year)
J. Walker (1 year)
W. Walker (1 year)
Hayden (2 years)
Scott (2 years)
Anderson (2 years)
Xerri (2 years)
Brown(3 years)
Taylor (3 years)
2021 list:
KPP: Tarrant, J. Walker, McKay, Daw, Brown, Larkey, Comben, Free Agent/Draft
Ruck: Goldstein, Xerri, Free Agent/Draft
Half Back: Atley, Williams, Pittard, Hayden, Macmillan, EVW, Perez, Free Agent/Draft
Midfield: Cunnington, Higgins, Simpkin, LDU, Bonar, Anderson, Polec, Dumont, Hall, McDonald, Free Agent/Draft, Free Agent/Draft, Free Agent/Draft
Half Forward: Thomas, Taylor, Zurhaar, Ziebell, Mahoney, Turner, W. Walker, Free Agent/Draft
2021
All going well we can look to lose a number of those one year deals, losing a further 9 player all up and replacing those via trade and draft (2x FA/Trade and 7x draft or 3x FA/Trade and 6x draft)
Delist
Macmillan
Turner
Williams
Daw
J. Walker
Campbell
Hall
Higgins (ret)
Ziebell (ret)
Retain
Tarrant (1 year)
Atley (1 year)
Pittard (1 year)
Vickers-Willis (2 year if back on ground)
W. Walker (2 year if back on ground)
Bonar (length performance dependent)
Comben (length performance dependent)
Dumont (length performance dependent)
LDU (length performance dependent)
Mahoney (length performance dependent)
McDonald (length performance dependent)
McKay (length performance dependent)
Perez (length performance dependent)
2022 list:
KPP: Tarrant, McKay, Brown, Larkey, Comben, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft
Ruck: Goldstein, Xerri, 2020 Free Agent/Draft
Half Back: Atley, Pittard, Hayden, EVW, Perez, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft
Midfield: Cunnington, Simpkin, LDU, Bonar, Anderson, Polec, Dumont, McDonald, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft
Half Forward: Thomas, Taylor, Zurhaar, Mahoney, W. Walker, Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft,
2022
This year we get hit with three big retirements, and say goodbye to two depth half backs. Focussed recruiting down to 5 list spaces (1xFA and 4x draft, 2xFA and 3x draft).
Delist/Retire
Tarrant
Cunnington
Goldstein
Atley
Pittard
Retain
Simpkin
Thomas
Zurhaar
2023 list:
KPP: McKay, Brown, Larkey, Comben, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2022 Free Agent/Draft,
Ruck: Xerri, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2022 Free Agent/Draft,
Half Back: Hayden, EVW, Perez, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2022 Free Agent/Draft, 2022 Free Agent/Draft,
Midfield: Simpkin, LDU, Bonar, Anderson, Polec, Dumont, McDonald, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2020 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2022 Free Agent/Draft,
Half Forward: Thomas, Taylor, Zurhaar, Mahoney, W. Walker, Free Agent/Draft, 2021 Free Agent/Draft, 2022 Free Agent/Draft,
So:
2020
Delist or Retire: 11
Recruit: 7
2021
Delist or Retire: 9
Recruit: 9
2022
Delist or Retire: 5
Recruit: 5
That's a total of 25 off the list in three years.
It's gonna be a biiiiig ******* job.
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When someone says "our list is ****ed" there should be an "Expand +" button below it and this could pop up.
GarnerSmash
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It's coming to a pretty dark place, and really soon. We need to take drastic action to address the hole in the 25-28 age group, and the quality we have that is older than that and close to the end. Only 3 clubs have less young players than us. They are:
GWS
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Of course, there is much more to it than just having young players, stuff like number of early round picks, success of those picks etc. But we will need all our young players to come on and have good AFL careers (almost impossible) AND draft really, really well to be in a position to cover the massive hole that is opening up in our list.
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Paying threefold for the sins of the past: list conservatism when we were challenging (encapsulated by the Farren Ray move) and the failure to continue rebuilding post 2016. Big thank you to Cam Joyce for how he has left us.
GarnerSmash
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I'd say what you've sketched out is a well reasoned worst case scenario though. There could be mitigating factors. A couple of the players listed to be cut in the next few years could kick on. List sizes could be cut by four again next year, lessening the amount of work we have to do. Rawlings could do a Saints 2019 like coup using our massive amount of cap space. An asteroid could wipe out most of Melbourne (with a chunk that broke off in the atmosphere hitting Geelong) and we make prelims by default 2022-25...
GarnerSmash
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It could actually be worse. What if the likes of Walker,EVW, LDU, Xerri, Bonar, Mahoney, McKay and Comben stagnate, or don't kick on, or get injured? There is a hell of a lot to go right for us to come out of this with a list capable of challenging.
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Challenging? I thought we were talking about remaining midtable and not turning into Melbourne or Carlton 2000s dark days territory.
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Every time I see this kind of analysis I just have to be thankful for the work Finnigan has done these last few years. Considering our complete apathy towards the draft we've done extremely well.
If it wasn't for value picks such as Simpkin, Taylor, Larkey, Zurhaar and Hayden contributing and looking promising the future would be a lot darker. A bit of luck with those guys and Walker, Davies-Uniacke, Thomas, Perez, Comben etc would leave us in a very good position and well on track to becoming a decent side.
If it wasn't for value picks such as Simpkin, Taylor, Larkey, Zurhaar and Hayden contributing and looking promising the future would be a lot darker. A bit of luck with those guys and Walker, Davies-Uniacke, Thomas, Perez, Comben etc would leave us in a very good position and well on track to becoming a decent side.
ferball
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Some of you people are tripping.
Ok, watched yesterday's game through a purely long-term lens and this is what I've got (which means only one clip of Pittard instead of the 10+ it probably would have been otherwise): https://theshinboner.com/2020/07/26...north-melbourne-afl-analysis-shinboner-gabba/
Snake_Baker
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Rick, I'd be interested for you to take a closer look at our defensive tactical change that Scamper signaled in the pre-season.
I'm not claiming it won't eventually prove fruitful, but I reckon it's the thing that has hurt us the most from the tactical perspective so far this season. We aren't rebounding anywhere near as much as other sides out of defence. This was particularly evident early in yesterdays match.
I'm not claiming it won't eventually prove fruitful, but I reckon it's the thing that has hurt us the most from the tactical perspective so far this season. We aren't rebounding anywhere near as much as other sides out of defence. This was particularly evident early in yesterdays match.
Great read as always Rick.
Today's one all about the (many, many) times North broke down around stoppages and what it means in the bigger picture: https://theshinboner.com/2020/08/06...afl-analysis-shinboner-north-melbourne-gabba/
Here's one example as Hall stands behind Dumont and Guthrie while Menegola is basically at the ruckmen's feet (I dunno why either)
Here's one example as Hall stands behind Dumont and Guthrie while Menegola is basically at the ruckmen's feet (I dunno why either)
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Horrible positioning. That’s school yard stuff!
Snake_Baker
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That's on Rhyce.
Heart read Rick18 .....Geez that Danger clearance is criminal for Polec. Just no clue.
That Dangerfield example, Polec was on him at the centre bounce. A one second delay turned into a 3 metre gap.
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And it is senior players that are not doing the right thing - we cant pin this on kids.
Hall and Polec in particular making critical non decisions - just go with the flow decisions - hoping it will turn out ok.
Hall and Polec in particular making critical non decisions - just go with the flow decisions - hoping it will turn out ok.
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It’s such a clusterf*ck, complete with Dumont actually blocking Polec as well!!!
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It's on Rhyce if he's asking Hall to position himself in no man's land. If he's doing that consistently, he should be dropped, but who have we got left to bring in? He's probably in the same boat as Polec.
tales129
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hey rick
so danger has gone on ball on that last stoppage in the centre.
why do we have Polec in the mix withdumont and Simpkin. I get structures and that but the game is on the line. Where’s the leadership from someone like higgins to put himself on ball, get Polec on the outside and make himself in a more dangerous position so we can nullify that stoppage?
danger clearly made that move himself not scott
