Analysis Ricks Analysis (2019 version)

Snake_Baker

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On the flipside it's very hard to get a read on any new player when the team and structure around them are so dysfunctional.

That's a very left field way of viewing things mate.

Couldn't you just toss up a few trade and selection scenarios that would fix everything?
 

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Thewlis Dish

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On the flipside it's very hard to get a read on any new player when the team and structure around them are so dysfunctional.
Youngsters at clubs like Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood etc (and now Richmond) always seem more AFL-ready because they are developed in a really professional environment from day dot.
 

shintemaster

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Youngsters at clubs like Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood etc (and now Richmond) always seem more AFL-ready because they are developed in a really professional environment from day dot.
Hard not to see any other logical conclusion over the last few years. The great talents will find a way to show what they have (you only have to look at TT & Scott this year to see some evidence) but the ones that are not quite at that pointy end will struggle. Unless we have some secret plan for picking up 10 TT's in 2 drafts that I'm not aware of we need to get this sorted very fast.
 

Rick18

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Interesting terminology applied to our tall forwards who Rick has grouped Marking Forwards, but Key Defenders are still grouped as Key Defenders. I guess it begs the question are Key Forwards obsolete in todays game? FWIW I don't subscribe to that line of thought.
Just a personal preference, I think from memory Champion Data groups it as key forwards and general forwards.

But to me Ziebell and Wood don't fit in either of those categories, and in the North setup they're clearly used as targets ... so I made a new category.
 

Grogg

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Just a personal preference, I think from memory Champion Data groups it as key forwards and general forwards.

But to me Ziebell and Wood don't fit in either of those categories, and in the North setup they're clearly used as targets ... so I made a new category.
Yeah agree Wood and JZ are tweeners and I'd have Watson in that group as well. Brown and Larkey and at a stretch Xerri are our genuine KPF's actively playing/training that role.

Tarrant, Durdin, Daw & McKay are training/playing as genuine KPD's. Thompson is the other one down there playing KPD. At 192cm he probably qualifies as a tweener as well.

I think we're just as, if not more so, thin up forward and need one of Daw, Durdin or McKay to go forward.
 

Thewlis Dish

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It's troubling how many talls we've drafted and failed to properly develop under this regime. Would love to see our "hit" rate compared to other clubs with talls.

Hits: Tarrant*, Brown, Daw (eventually)
Likely hits: EVW
Misses: Nielson, Delaney, Black, Curran, Currie, Preuss, Tippett, Mabon, Mangan
Likely misses: Durdin, Watson
Indeterminable: McKay, Larkey, Xerri

Obviously some have been a victim of injuries etc and the majority are later/rookie picks, but we've burnt through a lot and then not properly prepared others (Larkey, McKay) for senior footy. There is also little point drafting ruck prospects given our insistence on a sole ruck set-up.

*Drafted before this regime but feel he is appropriate to list here given the positional change.
 

ferball

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It's troubling how many talls we've drafted and failed to properly develop under this regime. Would love to see our "hit" rate compared to other clubs with talls.

Hits: Tarrant*, Brown, Daw (eventually)
Likely hits: EVW
Misses: Nielson, Delaney, Black, Curran, Currie, Preuss, Tippett, Mabon, Mangan
Likely misses: Durdin, Watson
Indeterminable: McKay, Larkey, Xerri

Obviously some have been a victim of injuries etc and the majority are later/rookie picks, but we've burnt through a lot and then not properly prepared others (Larkey, McKay) for senior footy. There is also little point drafting ruck prospects given our insistence on a sole ruck set-up.

*Drafted before this regime but feel he is appropriate to list here given the positional change.
How can you say Larkey isn't properly prepared for senior footy?
 

Thewlis Dish

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How can you say Larkey isn't properly prepared for senior footy?
Probably worded badly, more in the sense that he should probably have been getting some senior experience last year while Waite was injured, and definitely should have played before last week this year. McKay is a better example though - we didn't reward him with any games last year when he was in great VFL form, and then chucked him into a dysfunctional senior team from round one. Even just a couple of games last year may have helped his transition - instead he played half an AFL game at the end of 2017, then nothing for a full season after.
 

ferball

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Probably worded badly, more in the sense that he should probably have been getting some senior experience last year while Waite was injured, and definitely should have played before last week this year. McKay is a better example though - we didn't reward him with any games last year when he was in great VFL form, and then chucked him into a dysfunctional senior team from round one. Even just a couple of games last year may have helped his transition - instead he played half an AFL game at the end of 2017, then nothing for a full season after.
Fair enough.

I dunno how he would have gone last year. IIRC there was some consistent talk about his lack of size holding him back. He certainly seems bigger this year. I met him at the family day in early 2018 and he was skinny. He seems to have put on a bit of size and backs that up with alot more presence and some attitude to go with it. I would have had him in earlier this year tho. Maybe from the start.
 
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Thanks again Rick18 for your analysis - insightful as always.

I was also a bit surprised by how effective Ziebell was yesterday - I've been harsh on him this year and did not want him anywhere near the midfield, but he led from the front yesterday. Does make me wonder whether he could be used in the 'Cameron Ling' role of tagging and drifting forward, particularly with Jacobs out. Seems the key thing is that he couldn't play this role on anyone with pace, or even for four quarters. But maybe someone like Selwood next week?
 

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andana

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The other teams we have played this season had better success against us partly because of how they set up after our kick ins. With the new play on rule teams are now forming their defensive wall further back. This means that with our well known turnovers after a kick in there is more space available for the opposition forwards to find room.
 

Black2Blue

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Thanks again Rick18 for your analysis - insightful as always.

I was also a bit surprised by how effective Ziebell was yesterday - I've been harsh on him this year and did not want him anywhere near the midfield, but he led from the front yesterday. Does make me wonder whether he could be used in the 'Cameron Ling' role of tagging and drifting forward, particularly with Jacobs out. Seems the key thing is that he couldn't play this role on anyone with pace, or even for four quarters. But maybe someone like Selwood next week?
I like your thinking. Put JZ on the opposition skipper every week. Specialist role - 'skipper tagger'.
 

Rick18

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Snake_Baker

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Round 8 review - the glimpses of Brown and Larkey learning to work together, talking about Turner's role on Ablett, and explaining a Geelong strategy against Polec: https://theshinboner.com/2019/05/13...h-melbourne-geelong-shinboner-marvel-stadium/

So much happening in that game, if I had the time there could have been a few thousands more words.
Good work Rick.

I definitely noted Geelongs ability to keep flicking the ball to the outside which managed to keep finding players.

It was chancy stuff that paid off and the main reason I saw a flukey element to Geelongs win.

You also highlighted the Ablett/Turner thing very well. Most folks tend to just look at the highlights reel and assign blame without any deeper analysis of what lead to an outcome.
 

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Good work Rick.

I definitely noted Geelongs ability to keep flicking the ball to the outside which managed to keep finding players.

It was chancy stuff that paid off and the main reason I saw a flukey element to Geelongs win.

You also highlighted the Ablett/Turner thing very well. Most folks tend to just look at the highlights reel and assign blame without any deeper analysis of what lead to an outcome.
They certainly rolled the dice with the tactic against Polec.

With regards to their clearance work, it just shows up the difference in the midfield. They win the ball and spread. We have too many sucked into the contest or not enough able to spread from the contest.


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roos_fanatic08

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Round 8 review - the glimpses of Brown and Larkey learning to work together, talking about Turner's role on Ablett, and explaining a Geelong strategy against Polec: https://theshinboner.com/2019/05/13...h-melbourne-geelong-shinboner-marvel-stadium/

So much happening in that game, if I had the time there could have been a few thousands more words.
Fantastic write up Rick.

Personally thought the Turner didn’t have a bad game considering his experience playing as a defender. The one thing I noted though, was how many time Turner let Ablett get goal side around the stoppages. If he is going to make it as a defender then that can’t happen.

It has always annoyed me (under scott’s tenure) how our defenders tend to occupy space rather than an opponent in opposition 50 stoppages. It’s defending 101 to keep goal side of your opponent and maintain body contact. McMillan and McDonald are both guilty of filling space rather than bodying up to an opponent. I feel that occupying space/zone is a big downfall of our overall structure across the whole field. It’s especially bad now with the 6-6-6 setup.

In regards to Polec hanging off and occupying his wing, I don’t feel this is working in our favour. It’s been a noticeable tactic since the start of the year. His opponents last night (mostly Clark and Duncan) we’re getting into the contest and stationing themselves on the defensive side of the contest, allowing the ball as you said to be flicked out to them. The problem there is that as soon as the ball got out the back to them the likes of Danger and Kelly spread a lot quicker than Ziebell & Cunners allowing them to rack up easy touches forward of centre at will. I feel that Polec or Dumont (opposite wing) need to rush in and get defensive side of the stoppage to try and minimise the amount of easy free flowing clearances that the opposition has been allowed this year. Until we get our stoppage structure clicking again we really need act more defensively.

In regards to the forward structure, it’s so obvious that Brown & Wood are benefitting so much with the addition of Larkey. There seems to be so much more space in the forward and all of them seem to be in sync with one another. It’s nice to not have Turner and Campbell flying for the same footy as Brown like they were a few weeks back.
I also feel like Brown has had more ground support over the last 2 weeks, Garner & Zurhaar get themselves to the front and centre position much better than Turner does. It’s also resulted in more pressure on the opposition inside the forward 50. We simply have to pump games into Larkey, he is a such natural smart footballer. He’ll only grow with confidence over time. When was the last time we had a sub 10 game key position player have 17 touches and 3 shots on goal?

One other tactic that I thought stood up quite well was our ability to crowd the wings when Geelong were coming out of defensive 50. Geelong are very predictable with their use of the wings but I thought we quelled that quite well. The positioning of Pittard, Tarrant and to a lesser extent Goldy was integral to us minimising their clean forward 50 entries.

If only we didn’t over poses with the handball across wing and half back while taking advantage of our forward 50 entries it would’ve been a lot closer (but that seems the story of the whole season).
 

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They certainly rolled the dice with the tactic against Polec.

With regards to their clearance work, it just shows up the difference in the midfield. They win the ball and spread. We have too many sucked into the contest or not enough able to spread from the contest.


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execution, execution, execution, execution, execution

When that's combined with inferior method then you can see why we're 2 & 6 instead of 6 & 2.

At the end of the day it all comes back to one bloke.

Pykie is right, we need to move heaven & earth to get someone like Clarkson to the club, facilitated by removing every ******** obstacle at the club that ever get's in his way. We need to return to being a football autocracy.
 

Passmore

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execution, execution, execution, execution, execution

When that's combined with inferior method then you can see why we're 2 & 6 instead of 6 & 2.

At the end of the day it all comes back to one bloke.

Pykie is right, we need to move heaven & earth to get someone like Clarkson to the club, facilitated by removing every ******** obstacle at the club that ever get's in his way. We need to return to being a football autocracy.
It’s execution coupled with bad positioning. You can’t have so many players sucked into contests. Geelong could get it and flick to the outside knowing they were away.

And we basically have Polec in no mans land for long periods. He needs to be the bloke we get the ball to, not standing around scratching his nuts for half the game.

It’s where Hall could be so dangerous. Just off the contest. Cunnington to Hall, then take off forward.

On the execution piece, seriously anyone other than Cunnington, Thomas or Anderson should be ******* banned from handballing.


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roos_fanatic08

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It’s execution coupled with bad positioning. You can’t have so many players sucked into contests. Geelong could get it and flick to the outside knowing they were away.

And we basically have Polec in no mans land for long periods. He needs to be the bloke we get the ball to, not standing around scratching his nuts for half the game.

It’s where Hall could be so dangerous. Just off the contest. Cunnington to Hall, then take off forward.

On the execution piece, seriously anyone other than Cunnington, Thomas or Anderson should be ******* banned from handballing.


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The problem with banning the handball is that the vast majority of players aren't much better by foot...
 

Snake_Baker

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It’s execution coupled with bad positioning. You can’t have so many players sucked into contests. Geelong could get it and flick to the outside knowing they were away.

And we basically have Polec in no mans land for long periods. He needs to be the bloke we get the ball to, not standing around scratching his nuts for half the game.

It’s where Hall could be so dangerous. Just off the contest. Cunnington to Hall, then take off forward.

On the execution piece, seriously anyone other than Cunnington, Thomas or Anderson should be ******* banned from handballing.


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When have we EVER looked like a consistently efficient football team under Brad Scott?

Let me make this emphatic declaration: No other club spanning the entire past decade gets even close to us when it comes down to the outcome of work rate and it's resulting output. We have played football for 10 years like a team that runs out with every one of it's players dragging lead weights behind them, and it's time that lead weight was cut free!

I have so much admiration for our players work rate, and yet so much frustration at the lack of reward resulting from that work rate. It all comes down to METHOD

................and who is ultimately responsible for that?
 

ferball

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Fantastic write up Rick.

Personally thought the Turner didn’t have a bad game considering his experience playing as a defender. The one thing I noted though, was how many time Turner let Ablett get goal side around the stoppages. If he is going to make it as a defender then that can’t happen.

It has always annoyed me (under scott’s tenure) how our defenders tend to occupy space rather than an opponent in opposition 50 stoppages. It’s defending 101 to keep goal side of your opponent and maintain body contact. McMillan and McDonald are both guilty of filling space rather than bodying up to an opponent. I feel that occupying space/zone is a big downfall of our overall structure across the whole field. It’s especially bad now with the 6-6-6 setup.

In regards to Polec hanging off and occupying his wing, I don’t feel this is working in our favour. It’s been a noticeable tactic since the start of the year. His opponents last night (mostly Clark and Duncan) we’re getting into the contest and stationing themselves on the defensive side of the contest, allowing the ball as you said to be flicked out to them. The problem there is that as soon as the ball got out the back to them the likes of Danger and Kelly spread a lot quicker than Ziebell & Cunners allowing them to rack up easy touches forward of centre at will. I feel that Polec or Dumont (opposite wing) need to rush in and get defensive side of the stoppage to try and minimise the amount of easy free flowing clearances that the opposition has been allowed this year. Until we get our stoppage structure clicking again we really need act more defensively.

In regards to the forward structure, it’s so obvious that Brown & Wood are benefitting so much with the addition of Larkey. There seems to be so much more space in the forward and all of them seem to be in sync with one another. It’s nice to not have Turner and Campbell flying for the same footy as Brown like they were a few weeks back.
I also feel like Brown has had more ground support over the last 2 weeks, Garner & Zurhaar get themselves to the front and centre position much better than Turner does. It’s also resulted in more pressure on the opposition inside the forward 50. We simply have to pump games into Larkey, he is a such natural smart footballer. He’ll only grow with confidence over time. When was the last time we had a sub 10 game key position player have 17 touches and 3 shots on goal?

One other tactic that I thought stood up quite well was our ability to crowd the wings when Geelong were coming out of defensive 50. Geelong are very predictable with their use of the wings but I thought we quelled that quite well. The positioning of Pittard, Tarrant and to a lesser extent Goldy was integral to us minimising their clean forward 50 entries.

If only we didn’t over poses with the handball across wing and half back while taking advantage of our forward 50 entries it would’ve been a lot closer (but that seems the story of the whole season).
We deny the corridor and crowd the wings to force turnovers very well alot of the time.
 

ferball

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When have we EVER looked like a consistently efficient football team under Brad Scott?

Let me make this emphatic declaration: No other club spanning the entire past decade gets even close to us when it comes down to the outcome of work rate and it's resulting output. We have played football for 10 years like a team that runs out with every one of it's players dragging lead weights behind them, and it's time that lead weight was cut free!

I have so much admiration for our players work rate, and yet so much frustration at the lack of reward resulting from that work rate. It all comes down to METHOD

................and who is ultimately responsible for that?

Its not just method its also cos their skills are pus and they constantly turn the ball over then lose all confidence in themselves and go into their shells.

That's not "method" its being unable to execute basics then losing the plot.
 
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