Analysis Ricks Analysis (The Shinboner Blog)

[Gasometer]

Don’t panic ‘eh?

 

[Royal Flush]

Doubt this one's going to be overly popular, but anyway: https://theshinboner.com/2020/07/12...urne-metricon-stadium-afl-analysis-shinboner/

The basics/tl;dr: It was a step forward defensively but thrown away with momentary lapses, and extra thoughts about ball movement before I get more stuck in and thorough about it mid-week. And also not to panic in a big-picture sense.

The closest we'll get to a Monday morning review.
Good work

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

 

[Rick18]

Good writeup Rick but the ending is very ominous.



Smells like typical 10 year old 'Ninth Melbourne' finishes for us again sitting around the 9th-12th spot on the ladder.

I think this is different because there's a clear plan, games being put into younger players with more to come once the rest of them can stay on the park.

Then two more first round picks this year, plus a lot more guys out of contract and likely either moved on or put onto year-by-year deals. There are too many good players on the list to go scorched earth and tear it all down so it'll likely mean a little longer bouncing around mid-table while the regeneration happens. Just takes some patience.

 

[Passmore]

Knocked it out of the park again.

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

I think this is different because there's a clear plan, games being put into younger players with more to come once the rest of them can stay on the park.

Then two more first round picks this year, plus a lot more guys out of contract and likely either moved on or put onto year-by-year deals. There are too many good players on the list to go scorched earth and tear it all down so it'll likely mean a little longer bouncing around mid-table while the regeneration happens. Just takes some patience.

I dont think anyone is thinking scorched earth - you couldn't do it anyway with the contracts we are saddled with.

But as has happened in the past 2 years with the loss of W80 and Thommo - we are losing just any many good players to retirement as we are getting good kids on the way in. That is going to get much worse over the next 3 years with Taz, Goldie, Cunners and Higgo gone.

Our kids do look good (as do a number of other clubs kids) but we need to get a lot more of them into the mix or there will be no net improvement as the older players retire.

The list is precariously placed and needs a multi year 'regeneration' with high end picks and selected FA's - not picks starting at 10 and journeymen.

Supporters have been patient for a long while watching us bounce around mid-table - patience will quickly run out when selections like Tom Campbell this week and Cunners last week take place. Those selections tell supporters that the brains trust has run out of ideas.

 

[Dingster]

I would love to see to your review on McGrath and Saad. They were the two that turned defense into rebound all night for them. So an analysis of how the North small forwards (I think Hall was on one of them) failed to pressure them would be enlightening.

 

[Twinkletoes]

Great considered summation as always Rick.

 

[Rick18]

Okely doke, this is a long one: https://theshinboner.com/2020/07/17...bournes-ball-movement-afl-analysis-shinboner/

I went back and watched every forward 50 from the last month to try and get an idea of what's gone wrong and what it means.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Okely doke, this is a long one: https://theshinboner.com/2020/07/17...bournes-ball-movement-afl-analysis-shinboner/

I went back and watched every forward 50 from the last month to try and get an idea of what's gone wrong and what it means.

Nice work Rick.

One thing that sticks out to me on this that might fly in the face of your assumption that 'What we’ve gone through here is a form slump rather than a terminal flaw in the game style, because the last month has been vastly different to the remainder of Rhyce Shaw’s tenure' is that the evidence of good ball movement you provide came against a GWS team that had, by that stage, stopped running as a collective, allowing space for our players who were prepared to run to get into. This, on the back of what was a lock down period in which our guys apparently were doing a heap of fitness work. Since that point we have gradually gotten worse at getting into space for any period of a game as our opponents outwork us, and are relying on career best from from Simpkin and Goldstein, and the hard work of Tarrant and Walker to keep us in games.

My concern is that our good movement is down to opposition fatigue, and that when the pressure is on we are not capable with ball in hand of finding the tight options in dangerous positions, whereas our opponents do seem to be able to do so. To me this is more a personnel issue than a form issue. And by personnel I don't mean Xerri and Campbell, but those who have played most games and have played most weeks since they have been at the club.

 

[Rick18]

Nice work Rick.

One thing that sticks out to me on this that might fly in the face of your assumption that 'What we’ve gone through here is a form slump rather than a terminal flaw in the game style, because the last month has been vastly different to the remainder of Rhyce Shaw’s tenure' is that the evidence of good ball movement you provide came against a GWS team that had, by that stage, stopped running as a collective, allowing space for our players who were prepared to run to get into. This, on the back of what was a lock down period in which our guys apparently were doing a heap of fitness work. Since that point we have gradually gotten worse at getting into space for any period of a game as our opponents outwork us, and are relying on career best from from Simpkin and Goldstein, and the hard work of Tarrant and Walker to keep us in games.

My concern is that our good movement is down to opposition fatigue, and that when the pressure is on we are not capable with ball in hand of finding the tight options in dangerous positions, whereas our opponents do seem to be able to do so. To me this is more a personnel issue than a form issue. And by personnel I don't mean Xerri and Campbell, but those who have played most games and have played most weeks since they have been at the club.

That's fair - what I'll probably go back and add a line in to explain is that there are a bunch more good examples, but this one is the clearest to see/explain from the coverage because of all the normal super closeups. My kingdom for access to behind the goals vision...

 

[GarnerSmash]

That's fair - what I'll probably go back and add a line in to explain is that there are a bunch more good examples, but this one is the clearest to see/explain from the coverage because of all the normal super closeups. My kingdom for access to behind the goals vision...

I hear you.

There were multiple examples of us running over the top of GWS in the second half after a tough, contested first. There have been few examples since, perhaps only that last quarter against the Hawks. Most other goals seem to come from contested situations.

 

[king of the road]

Thanks Rick. I too felt we were better. But you articulated very clearly how and why. Great summation.

I also noted the 4 goals in the last two minutes of each quarter on the first page of the review thread.

That’s the difference. We’re not good enough for long enough.

Perhaps the younger guys dropping off? But then the Polec kick... Real head droppers.

 

[Caracas]

I’m beginning to think that the Swans put some sort of blight/hex on us. In the opening 10 minutes of that game, we were still flying. However, from there on, we appear to have lost our way.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ferball]

Thanks Rick. I too felt we were better. But you articulated very clearly how and why. Great summation.

I also noted the 4 goals in the last two minutes of each quarter on the first page of the review thread.

That’s the difference. We’re not good enough for long enough.

Perhaps the younger guys dropping off? But then the Polec kick... Real head droppers.

It's definitely mental.

It's been an issue for a long time. Along with a host of other game related mental issues. We struggle for on field resilience. It's probably a leadership thing. You just have to play to the siren. Thankfully Souv and Jy showed it in that close Saints game.

 

[ferball]

Okely doke, this is a long one: https://theshinboner.com/2020/07/17...bournes-ball-movement-afl-analysis-shinboner/

I went back and watched every forward 50 from the last month to try and get an idea of what's gone wrong and what it means.

Are we working hard enough?

You illustrate poor decision making well. Polec for example, in that gif with Alir.

But in that example someone outside Polec receiving a handball, or someone in his place in that gif giving it too him so he can launch from 10 m closer changes that whole scenario.

That extra work creates more options and a lot of what seems to drive our poor recent form stems from not having enough options. It's as if we're very easily "kettled" into areas the opposition wants us.

That Polec gif illustrates what I mean. There is a line of Swans players at one point just to his left forcing him away from attacking the corridor. Not enough of our players with them, no shepherding and nothing to break up that line. More work by our players to be on either side of Polec would have made it easier to move the ball thru there.

Alir can trust that line so it limits what he has to think about in terms of where Polec might be able to kick the ball.

 

[Passmore]

It's definitely mental.

It's been an issue for a long time. Along with a host of other game related mental issues. We struggle for on field resilience. It's probably a leadership thing. You just have to play to the siren. Thankfully Souv and Jy showed it in that close Saints game.

Jy in particular exudes what we want from our players. Shawy mentioned on SEN that Jy wants to be elite and wants to push the rest of the group. You get a similar vibe from Curtis and from reports Perez is cut from a similar cloth mentally. It's why we need to focus on bringing in as much quality youth as we can and have Simpkin lead them.

 

[muttley45]

Rick, do you know how they measure the "pressure index" ?, a stat i often hear referenced, apart from tackle numbers, and i suppose opposition turnovers, what else does it factor in ?

 

[Rick18]

Rick, do you know how they measure the "pressure index" ?, a stat i often hear referenced, apart from tackle numbers, and i suppose opposition turnovers, what else does it factor in ?

I asked on Twitter the other day and one of the analysis guys from Melbourne responded with this:

 

[muttley45]

I asked on Twitter the other day and one of the analysis guys from Melbourne responded with this:

Cheers Rick, thanks for prompt reply

 

[giantroo]

 

[Grogg]

Yep a massive hole in quality in the 23-27 age group along with a number in the over 27's who are either good players past it or just not that good. A huge chunk of that out of contract group needs to go & go now.


OOC Delistings:

Ahern
Crocker
Durdin
Garner
Hosie
Jacobs
Macmillan
McGuiness
Murphy
Turner
Vickers-Willis
Williams
Wood


All these guys for mine are either cooked physically, mentally or stalled/stagnated.

I'd like to put a scythe through a couple in the 2021 ooc group as well (understanding that's not gonna happen now but needs to Nov '21):

Campbell
Atley
Tyson


So that's 13 this year followed by 3 definites next year as well.

Pretty good start to get the ball rolling.

Make it happen Brady

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

As I have been saying we need 20-22 draft picks in the next 3 years just to replace the dead wood and retirements.

On top of that we need a handful of FA's and mid aged players to keep the list balanced.

And btw - we need to resign a few of the kids for next year - bigger clubs will be sniffing around the likes of Curtis Taylor and KH if we dont get them locked away as soon as we are allowed to.

Plenty of work for a list manager at North in the next 3 years - what a mess the list is in!

 

[Grogg]

As I have been saying we need 20-22 draft picks in the next 3 years just to replace the dead wood and retirements.

On top of that we need a handful of FA's and mid aged players to keep the list balanced.

And btw - we need to resign a few of the kids for next year - bigger clubs will be sniffing around the likes of Curtis Taylor and KH if we dont get them locked away as soon as we are allowed to.

Plenty of work for a list manager at North in the next 3 years - what a mess the list is in!

Just on the mid age thing you mention, we're in a bit of a no win situation there.

Given the huge hole in quality in that bracket of 25-30 year olds on the list - the age where a footballer is in his absolute prime- it takes a fair bit of luck to fill that breach. It means you have to give up some genuine quality to get quality in return. That may be in the form of a top pick, a bundle of future picks, a required player and a pick, etc, etc. It's a big ask and I'm not sure we will be willing to entertain that thought. The only way I see it happening is if we have genuine quality ask to leave, in which case that makes it a bit of a buyers market.

I think we're finally going to bottom out and start smashing the draft hard with some regular high to highish picks.

Interesting couple of years coming up.

 

[Rad Roo]

Ahern, Durdin, Williams, Woods will most likely survive as they are either decent depth players or hard to replace.

For instance if tarrant goes down, Brown is out of form for the rest of the year, Durdin is the obvious choice to fill the fullbacks position.

Wood will take mcmillan's position at half back flank, put it in the bank.

 

[Grogg]

Wood will take mcmillan's position at half back flank, put it in the bank.

No he won't.

You probably want that to happen and that's fair enough, but it's just not going to happen regardless of how much you think it should.

I strongly expect both to be delisted.