Roast Rigged flags: how the VFL cooked the books

[Livonski]

Are you old enough to remember the uproar around 2005/6 that the non Victorian clubs were winning all the flags? Just sheer coincidence I suppose that from that point it's been dominated by Victorian teams.

Yes sir, plenty old enough.
Your uproar right now could be the mirror image.

 

[Livonski]

Can't see a non-Vic team ever win a premiership again when Hamish Hartlett can run a ball out of bounds in a rainstorm and get penalised and have the game lost from the resultant goal. Next year a Taylor Duryea runs the ball out of bounds with less than 15 seconds to go and is the hero when Bulldogs win by a point.

Please.
Hartlett was rolled gold deliberate. We all know that, whatever happened this year is irrelevant to that.

 

[longdonkey]

Please.
Hartlett was rolled gold deliberate. We all know that, whatever happened this year is irrelevant to that.

Both went to the boundary like all defenders do. At least Hartlett's handball had another defender within a couple metres and it was pissing with rain and slippery.
So what happens after is irreverent. If there was any consistency that decision should mean that if any player handballs towards the boundary and no other player touches it, its deliberate.

 

[FishingRick04]

We need to develop local talent via discrete convert means. I’d even do it in cohorts with the Crows.

 

[FishingRick04]

Both went to the boundary like all defenders do. At least Hartlett's handball had another defender within a couple metres and it was pissing with rain and slippery.
So what happens after is irreverent. If there was any consistency that decision should mean that if any player handballs towards the boundary and no other player touches it, its deliberate.

Even though the free was paid, which I disagreed with, Richmond had to kick a tough goal, something we struggle to do

 

[longdonkey]

Please.
Hartlett was rolled gold deliberate. We all know that, whatever happened this year is irrelevant to that.

I guess what we are saying that even if it was deliberate if the roles were reversed and it was a Richmond player doing the handpassing out of bounds it wouldn't have been called at that stage of that game.

 

[Willsy10]

The stats are pretty glaring and the Victorian club dominance has probably gone on for far too long but is there any reason why the momentum can’t shift back to the dominance non Victorian teams had between 1992-2006?


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[TeeKray]

The stats are pretty glaring and the Victorian club dominance has probably gone on for far too long but is there any reason why the momentum can’t shift back to the dominance non Victorian teams had between 1992-2006?


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The non Victorian dominance was a result of start up concessions that gave West Coast and Adelaide state teams, merger concessions and salary cap advantages that allowed Brisbane to create a once in a lifetime super team and Port shrewdly capitalising on less generous concessions to create a strong team itself.

Sydney and West Coast are the only non Victorian teams to win flags beyond their initial squads.

 

[tribey]

Sydney and West Coast are the only non Victorian teams to win flags beyond their initial squads.

And even then.

• Sydney: COLA/Academy. (on top of their undeniably incredible drafting: Goodes, Kirk, LRT, Malceski, Grundy, Jack, Hannebery, Parker, Rampe all taken well outside the first round and in some cases very late)

• WCE: Priority Pick (3 — Judd) for one, and came off a dire period culminating in a wooden spoon not long after winning a flag (Naitanui pick 2, Gaff pick 4, Shuey priority pick 18, Darling priority pick 26)

 

[TeeKray]

And even then.

• Sydney: COLA/Academy. (on top of their undeniably incredible drafting: Goodes, Kirk, LRT, Malceski, Grundy, Jack, Hannebery, Parker, Rampe all taken well outside the first round and in some cases very late)

• WCE: Priority Pick (3 — Judd) for one, and came off a dire period culminating in a wooden spoon not long after winning a flag (Naitanui pick 2, Gaff pick 4, Shuey priority pick 18, Darling priority pick 26)

At least these examples are somewhat able to be replicated, unlike those previous non Victorian flags.

But even then, look at the squad Sydney had from 2012-2016 and the squad West Coast have had from 2015 to present. Victorian teams with strong squads like those win multiple flags. These two (who are objectively strong clubs on and off the field) have to be content with 1 flag apiece from very tight grand final wins.

It's just harder, plain and simple.

 

[chiwigi]

From 1992 to 2006 "interstate" clubs won 10 out of 15 flags, including 6 in a row from 2001-2006.

Clearly this was unacceptable and something had to give to tilt the balance back. Since then almost every flag has had some form of leg up from the VFL in terms of advantage.

Geelong "Dynasty" - Dank. Ablett Jnr and Tom Hawkins for free under father son rules that blatantly favoured Victoria.

Hawthorn "Dynasty" - Luke Hodge and Jarryd Roughead as priority picks. They then changed the rules on priority picks making them much harder to come by. Compromised drafts due to expansion clubs made it impossible to catch up.

Western Bulldogs 2016 - umpiring interference. The bye which severely diminished any advantage for being top 4.

Richmond 2017 - Undeserved home ground advantage against a higher ranked team. Cotchin takes out Shiel with a head high bump, concussing him and turning the prelim. Not suspended.

Melbourne - So bad for so long that the AFL, the administrators of the game, took over and stabilised the club, even appointing their own coach and succession planning. Training wheels premiership.

The only legit flags were Collingwood in 2010 and maybe the last 2 Richmond ones.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

And we can't even get a dog toilet built on.

 

[Willsy10]

The non Victorian dominance was a result of start up concessions that gave West Coast and Adelaide state teams, merger concessions and salary cap advantages that allowed Brisbane to create a once in a lifetime super team and Port shrewdly capitalising on less generous concessions to create a strong team itself.

Sydney and West Coast are the only non Victorian teams to win flags beyond their initial squads.

But they’ve all had significant chances to win flags beyond their initial squads.

The non Victorian teams have had a habit of late of shitting the bed in finals and most of that is on them.

The two that stand out for me as being blatantly unfair is the Sydney in 2016, and Adelaide in 2017 where they’ve both had to face a fairytale Victorian team on their home soil in a gf besides being the higher ranked side. It’s unfair but playing grand finals every year at the mcg is likely to stay for a long time and we need to get used to that.

Port, Brisbane and freo have all had chances that they’ve blown and they’ve got no one else to blame but themselves.


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[longdonkey]

But they’ve all had significant chances to win flags beyond their initial squads.

The non Victorian teams have had a habit of late of shitting the bed in finals and most of that is on them.

The two that stand out for me as being blatantly unfair is the Sydney in 2016, and Adelaide in 2017 where they’ve both had to face a fairytale Victorian team on their home soil in a gf besides being the higher ranked side. It’s unfair but playing grand finals every year at the mcg is likely to stay for a long time and we need to get used to that.

Port, Brisbane and freo have all had chances that they’ve blown and they’ve got no one else to blame but themselves.


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It's hard enough to win as it is when you see all of the rules that benefit Vic teams in the setup of your list. To play against teams that have a higher ladder spot, as they have played 15-17 games on their home ground.
A lopsided draw where Vic teams play each other twice which also helps a higher ladder spot.
Then you get to the finals where you might face the injustice of playing a home final at the MCG and then the GF where you might play as a team that has played 17 times on that ground vs your 1 or 2.
Then you have to face the perils of a home ground umpiring performance.

I always remember the Cows v Richmond GF early in the second quarter Cows were up by about 2 goals and Betts got tackled without the ball in the goal square the free not given, Richmond went straight up the other end and got a goal turned a potentially 3 goal game into a 1 goal game. Then got a run on and the rest is history. I always wonder how that game would have panned out if the Cows were 3 goals up in the second quarter. That game got turned on its head by one decision. BTW Boo hoo.

It's a wonder we could ever have won a flag.

 

[longdonkey]

I just did an analysis of the margins of finals games from 2010-2021 to see any anomalies in the results.

Here's a couple things it showed.

In finals games there is a 1.7x chance that the margin will be over 20pts compared to under 20pts

If there is a game decided by less than a goal there is a 1.75x greater chance that a Vic team will beat a non-Vic team than visa versa.

While all other margins there was very close to 50/50 chance that either would win the games by margins greater than 6 points.

There have only been 14 games where 2 non-Vic teams have played in a final versus 32 games where there have been Vic v Vic.

In 109 finals 40% have been won by Non Vic teams but they have only won 17% of the premierships.

 

[tribey]

freo

2015 GF should’ve been a Derby — the Hawks capping their threepeat generally seen as an inevitability completely overshadows it.

Second-placed West Coast comfortably beat them in the QF at Subi, and then pumped North in the Prelim two weeks later.

Minor Premiers Freo ground to a victory over the Swans at Subi in their QF, setting up a home Prelim.

Hawthorn rebounded to pump the Crows in the SF, and went over to Perth as underdogs — although ominously, the Hawks had pumped them by 72 points in their sole meeting down in Launceston.

Despite kicking the first two goals of the game, Freo conceded the next 6 goals and despite launching a couple of decent comeback attempts, ultimately went down by 27.

Obviously the ongoing injustice of West Coast having to play the decider away as the higher-ranked team sucks, but it shouldn’t have had to come to that.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

I just did an analysis of the margins of finals games from 2010-2021 to see any anomalies in the results.

Here's a couple things it showed.

In finals games there is a 1.7x chance that the margin will be over 20pts compared to under 20pts

If there is a game decided by less than a goal there is a 1.75x greater chance that a Vic team will beat a non-Vic team than visa versa.

While all other margins there was very close to 50/50 chance that either would win the games by margins greater than 6 points.

There have only been 14 games where 2 non-Vic teams have played in a final versus 32 games where there have been Vic v Vic.

In 109 finals 40% have been won by Non Vic teams but they have only won 17% of the premierships.

But here's the kicker...

When you take the games where the Vic teams have played each other, the Vic teams have 50% winners, and 50% losers.

So you look at the games where the non-Vic teams have played each other, and the non-Vic teams ALSO have 50% winners, 50% losers.

It's just that even.

 

[longdonkey]

But here's the kicker...

When you take the games where the Vic teams have played each other, the Vic teams have 50% winners, and 50% losers.

So you look at the games where the non-Vic teams have played each other, and the non-Vic teams ALSO have 50% winners, 50% losers.

It's just that even.

I'm just going to assume you're taking the piss.

 

[longdonkey]

The areas where the AFL has created real inequity was first in Father/son drafting and then when Gold Coast and GWS have come into the comp Victorian clubs have an inequity of being able to get access to ready made players from these clubs and bring them home at the end of contracts. Both clubs have a much higher retention rate of non-Vic players so Vic clubs are able to bring in better ready made players into their club.

 

[tribey]

and then when Gold Coast and GWS have come into the comp

Fancy winning just 8.5 (3 + 5.5) games across two seasons, and your highest natural draft pick is #6.

 

[longdonkey]

Fancy winning just 8.5 (3 + 5.5) games across two seasons, and your highest natural draft pick is #6.

Yep - that was some exceptional bad timing. Especially when you see the guys taken in the Top 10 5/8 ended up playing in Melbourne

 

[tribey]

Yep - that was some exceptional bad timing. Especially when you see the guys taken in the Top 10 5/8 ended up playing in Melbourne

The Bulldogs using their Callan Ward compensation pick to take an extra player before Wines (Stringer and Macrae) still annoys me.

They went all-in on a flag and had played in three consecutive Prelims from 08-10, and here they are getting two bites at the cherry ahead of us a heartbeat later.

So gross.

 

[glitch01]

But here's the kicker...

When you take the games where the Vic teams have played each other, the Vic teams have 50% winners, and 50% losers.

So you look at the games where the non-Vic teams have played each other, and the non-Vic teams ALSO have 50% winners, 50% losers.

It's just that even.

Never realised David King posted on our board…..


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[longdonkey]

Ex-GWS and Gold Coast players at each club in 2021


Carlton 7
Essendon 6
Hawthorn 6
Brisbane 3
Collingwood 3
North Melbourne 3
Richmond 3
Adelaide 2
Fremantle 2
Melbourne 2
Port Adelaide 2
Western Bulldogs 2
Geelong 1
St Kilda 1
West Coast 1
Sydney 0

Vic based 34
Non-Vic 10

 

[RossFC]

Ex-GWS and Gold Coast players at each club in 2021


Carlton 7
Essendon 6
Hawthorn 6
Brisbane 3
Collingwood 3
North Melbourne 3
Richmond 3
Adelaide 2
Fremantle 2
Melbourne 2
Port Adelaide 2
Western Bulldogs 2
Geelong 1
St Kilda 1
West Coast 1
Sydney 0

Vic based 34
Non-Vic 10

This reminds me of how many former Port players were at other SANFL teams in 2021.

North - 9
South - 6
Glenelg - 5
Eagles - 4
Norwood - 2
Sturt - 2
Centrals - 2
Crows - 1
West - 1

Not including prospective father-son Jace Burgoyne who came and went back to Eagles and James Borlase who probably should be a father-son with us if it wasn't for crap rules. Expecting this number to grow if we get raided again.

 

[Pappagallo]

Fancy winning just 8.5 (3 + 5.5) games across two seasons, and your highest natural draft pick is #6.

I don’t think this had much impact on us tbh. In 2011 we’re probably still taking Wingard at Pick 2/3. I guess if Gold Coast doesn’t exist and we’re the wooden spooner we could’ve selected Dick Pics Patton but that doesn’t work out any better for us. In 2012 we picked a Brownlow Medal winner. I think it worked out OK.