Righting the Ship - The Next 5 Games (A.K.A When Naitanui's Willie Returns)

What position on the ladder will we be come the bye?


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EagleJack42

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Thread starter #1
So, not the start to the year we expected.... However, I would have happily taken 4-2 at season's start and 3-3 leaves us just below the logjam that is the Top 8 right now. 8 teams above us on 4-4 all of whom will begin taking points off each other shortly. We can only control the games we play so lets have a look at our next 5 games:

Round 7 - Gold Coast (H): A winnable game with the potential for a % booster if we pull our thumbs out. If we beat the Giants by 50+ then we should be able to do a reasonable job against the other Coasters on our beloved rock-hard home deck. Forecast is rain during the day but nothing in the even. 23 degree so hopefully some decent drainage and reasonably dry ground or it could spell disaster.

Round 8 - St Kilda (A): Another winnable game on a deck we normally play reasonably well. St Kilda may be on the slide and vulnerable here where even in our current state we may be able to chalk one up.

Round 9 - Melbourne (H): Thank god for Melbourne's drop this year. They've taken some real heat off us I reckon and should be beaten at home.

Round 10 - Adelaide (A): All depends on which Adelaide shows up although we do love Adelaide Oval. Additionally, they will be coming off both the Showdown and a long trip to the Gabba. Probably a loss but always a chance.

Round 11 - Bulldogs (H): They lost to the Dockers and Carlton and appear to be in dire straits at the moment. Hopefully things remain as they are and we can pick up another win.

So assuming a par score of 4-1 or a pleasant surprise of 5-0 that would put us somewhere between 4-6 position heading into the bye and the much awaited returns of Nic Nat and Rioli before we head to Sydney, then Bye, Essendon, Hawks, Freo, and Collingwood at home.

Would love to hear what everyone else thinks. Remember lads, the Ox is slow but the Earth is patient...
 

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nameless

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#2
We've played teams ranked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 so far.

3-3 isn't completely terrible, but the manner of the loses (and even the Freo win) have been way below par.

We need to sweep the next 5 to be any chance and even if we have a loss, it needs to be competitive.
 

Max zero

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#3
So, not the start to the year we expected.... However, I would have happily taken 4-2 at season's start and 3-3 leaves us just below the logjam that is the Top 8 right now. 8 teams above us on 4-4 all of whom will begin taking points off each other shortly. We can only control the games we play so lets have a look at our next 5 games:

Round 7 - Gold Coast (H): A winnable game with the potential for a % booster if we pull our thumbs out. If we beat the Giants by 50+ then we should be able to do a reasonable job against the other Coasters on our beloved rock-hard home deck. Forecast is rain during the day but nothing in the even. 23 degree so hopefully some decent drainage and reasonably dry ground or it could spell disaster.

Round 8 - St Kilda (A): Another winnable game on a deck we normally play reasonably well. St Kilda may be on the slide and vulnerable here where even in our current state we may be able to chalk one up.

Round 9 - Melbourne (H): Thank god for Melbourne's drop this year. They've taken some real heat off us I reckon and should be beaten at home.

Round 10 - Adelaide (A): All depends on which Adelaide shows up although we do love Adelaide Oval. Additionally, they will be coming off both the Showdown and a long trip to the Gabba. Probably a loss but always a chance.

Round 11 - Bulldogs (H): They lost to the Dockers and Carlton and appear to be in dire straits at the moment. Hopefully things remain as they are and we can pick up another win.

So assuming a par score of 4-1 or a pleasant surprise of 5-0 that would put us somewhere between 4-6 position heading into the bye and the much awaited returns of Nic Nat and Rioli before we head to Sydney, then Bye, Essendon, Hawks, Freo, and Collingwood at home.

Would love to hear what everyone else thinks. Remember lads, the Ox is slow but the Earth is patient...
Honestly your post gives me a bit of confidence.

We have had a brutal run opponent wise so far this year had to lighten eventually.
 

HoneyBadger35

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#5
Not going to dwell by writing out my usual essay. The succinct version is this:

I find I’m one of the more optimistic posters around here. 3-3 is completely fine given who we’ve played. Our record is not the issue though.

The intent is right down, the basic skills that let us flex on an entire competition have disappeared. Teams are having more success as speeding us up and muddying the waters against us. There’s a lot to clean up if we want to capitalise on what should be a steadying month of football.
 

Cuzz09

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#8
Its so, so sad that we're making posts like this now.

FWIW I think we lose the Saints and Adelaide games.
Nope. We were making threads like this last year when we were 8-1.

It needs to be done for supporters sanity if nothing else

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Rowan18

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#9
Our form hasn't been great but we've had a lot of players miss significant chunks of preseason and had to work their way back (Yeo, Kennedy, Cripps, McGovern). There's nothing wrong with a slow start but this period is where we need to pick it up.

On talent, we should win all 5 so I see that as the benchmark. Rolling into the bye at 8-4 (assuming a loss at the SCG) and we're looking alright for a top 4 tilt).
 

Cuzz09

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#10
Our form hasn't been great but we've had a lot of players miss significant chunks of preseason and had to work their way back (Yeo, Kennedy, Cripps, McGovern). There's nothing wrong with a slow start but this period is where we need to pick it up.

On talent, we should win all 5 so I see that as the benchmark. Rolling into the bye at 8-4 (assuming a loss at the SCG) and we're looking alright for a top 4 tilt).
I think we'd all take 8-4 for sure!!

Even 7-5 would be ok.

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#11
We do seem to have an easier run coming up, but this year is so unpredictable. The losses are one thing but it's the manner we have been losing that is concerning. We'd have to be close to or if not dead last in most of the key stats this year (inside 50 differential, contested possessions, ground ball gets, tackles).
We need to turn things around quickly otherwise we'll all be watching the 2018 GF on replay over and over to get us through the year.
 

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MIKE85

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#12
Reckon we can be 8-4 at the bye. Should be able to finally beat the swans at the SCG, I’m thinking we’ll drop maybe the saints game. If we can get some percentage back in our home games (GC, Melb & WB) then we’ll be ok. Might also help some players like Darling to get some confidence back by flat tracking a few weaker backlines and kicking some goals.

Our draw after the bye isn’t too bad either so if we can improve on current form, big if, then I still reckon we’re looking good for top 4. Nic Nat, Rioli and Barrass back will help in the back half of the season.

Just need a solid win against GC and hope the weather ends up being better than it’s currently predicted to be
 

West Coast 06

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#13
I think they are all winnable bar maybe Adelaide. I think we can also beat the current Sydney. So if we can go to the bye at 8-4 we will still be in the hunt.

The month after the bye again looks tough, Hawks the only win I see there ATM. But if a week is a long time in footy, then two months is an eternity, so who knows.

Get Nic and Willie back and cross fingers for Barrass and give this weird arse year a shake. 🤞
 

MIKE85

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#14
I don’t reckon after the bye is looking that tough?? Bombers at home (surely we’ve learnt from last time) Hawks, Freo and Collingwood at home. Should be winning most of those. The wheel will have well and truly fallen off the Freo wagon by then. Reckon we can go 3-1 in that month, meaning 11-5 or maybe even 12-4 at that stage of the season will set us up nicely.

Even year again means that maybe 16 wins will be enough again?
 

WCE_phil

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#15
Realistically to be any shot we need to be 12-4 and we need to win games by big margins. I can see a real logjam again this year of teams on or around 16/6 like 2016.

2016 was the first year ever a team had won 16 games for the season and not finished top 4. In 2016 it meant we finished 6th H&A
 

MIKE85

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#17
Think a good win tgis weekend will help (if it happens) and looking like saints will be missing Lonie and Geary still for the next week, so that helps. Win those 2 and we should be confident going into the Melbourne game and we start rolling on and getting some form back.

Before the season started, I would’ve taken 4-2 from this first 6, so 3-3 isn’t fold stations yet, but our effort in those losses has been alarming. I also remember how **** we were in a few games last year so I’m trying not to get too concerned just yet.

Also more than happy to have a premiership hangover compared to a losing GF hangover ala Crows
 

West Coast 06

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#18
I don’t reckon after the bye is looking that tough?? Bombers at home (surely we’ve learnt from last time) Hawks, Freo and Collingwood at home. Should be winning most of those. The wheel will have well and truly fallen off the Freo wagon by then. Reckon we can go 3-1 in that month, meaning 11-5 or maybe even 12-4 at that stage of the season will set us up nicely.

Even year again means that maybe 16 wins will be enough again?
Not sure how any of Bombers, Freo or Collingwood look winnable in the form we have displayed in the last two matches? We would be lucky to get over Hawks and only because it is at home.
 

Eastern Rangers

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#19
Not going to dwell by writing out my usual essay. The succinct version is this:

I find I’m one of the more optimistic posters around here. 3-3 is completely fine given who we’ve played. Our record is not the issue though.

The intent is right down, the basic skills that let us flex on an entire competition have disappeared. Teams are having more success as speeding us up and muddying the waters against us. There’s a lot to clean up if we want to capitalise on what should be a steadying month of football.
Stamp some authority on the contested ball, get our runners and distributors into space and finally get something happening on the half forward line. Easier said than done given how teams have slowed us down off the half back line and how our contested ball work has been so poor across the ground.

We should be moving Gaff and Yeo out of stoppages. Bring in Sheed from the cold on a permanent basis and maybe bring M.Allen up from WAFL to replace Yeo inside. Get some run and carry back, start spreading the opposition.

We're so reactive and conservative on the field. We're waiting for the play to happen instead of making it. It's been apparent since the Derby.
 
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